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  1. #23251
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Posts
    162
    San Francisco Bay Area House Prices Plunge 30% from Crazy Peak: Housing Bust 2 | Wolf Street

    When people's primary residencies start dropping, I wonder how long before they start considering selling their vacation homes that they are less likely to work remotely from? I've noticed a lot more spec builders putting half-finished homes on Zillow asking for what they've got in it if you pay them to finish the home.

  2. #23252
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    19,067
    Getting a ride home this morning, my Uber driver thought we were looking at as much as a 50% decrease in values from the top 12 months ago. He must be reading some pessimistic stuff as I don't see the impetus to make that happen unless a fuck ton of people in CA loose their jobs.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  3. #23253
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Location
    in a freezer in Italy
    Posts
    7,181
    I knew the '08 crash was coming when a taxi driver in Dublin started telling me what a sweet deal he had going with Florida condos, so maybe your Uber driver knows something.

  4. #23254
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    the ham
    Posts
    13,370
    In a similar vein, I knew the 08 crash was coming when a local developer asked me to participate in his Ponzi scheme.

  5. #23255
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    7,919
    I always found the Berry guy's story ridiculous in that he was at the strip club and realized these hookers cant afford houses so lets short the market. You might have been right but that was definitely not the reason, but probably got him out of a jam in his marriage.
    Live Free or Die

  6. #23256
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    General Sherman's Favorite City
    Posts
    35,250
    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Striker View Post
    In a similar vein, I knew the 08 crash was coming when a local developer asked me to participate in his Ponzi scheme.
    This.

    My inbox is getting more and more emails from developers looking for introductions to other private equity sources for their projects.

    That tells me they've already burned through/burnt their existing PE.
    I still call it The Jake.

  7. #23257
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Dystopia
    Posts
    21,053
    The stupid pricing was driven by cheap money and work from home.
    That ship has sailed.

    I expect 20 to 30% corrections in vacation markets. Maybe more. Depending on desirability.

    Otoh. If you can hold your second home at sub four percent interest and still afford it why would you sell?

  8. #23258
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    19,067
    Exactly, remember, people need to really qualify for loans these days, so unless there is a long job loss, people can afford what they bought.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  9. #23259
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814
    Shit box prices in my old East Bay Area hood are still higher than when I sold in 2021.

  10. #23260
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Tahoe-ish
    Posts
    3,141
    Yeah, my sis just bought a place in Berkeley after a long search. Prices haven't really gone down, but the insane bidding wars have abated. 6.5% mortgage, though: ouch!
    ride bikes, climb, ski, travel, cook, work to fund former, repeat.

  11. #23261
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    19,067
    Quote Originally Posted by climberevan View Post
    6.5% mortgage, though: ouch!
    Pfft, our first home loan was at 13.50% in 1985. Thank Dog we only financed $180k.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  12. #23262
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Bend
    Posts
    1,350
    We still haven’t found the bottom. Microsoft announced they’re cutting 10,000 jobs. Central Oregon real estate is down 19% from peak market.

  13. #23263
    Join Date
    Jan 2023
    Location
    Spain
    Posts
    1
    I wouldn't be able to cover my expenses for renting an apartment in Mallorca and paying a mortgage (according to Yes! Mallorca Property Prices report).

  14. #23264
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    1,405
    Still getting almost weekly unsolicited txts/letters from investors wanting to pay "cash today" for my rental properties.

  15. #23265
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    7,919
    Sharks smell blood in the water.

    My boat dealer is clearly getting desperate on model year 23 boats after giving everyone with a fresh heloc a ticket to the water over the past couple years. 30% off MSRP on a new Malibu is the latest offer and that was the opening salvo. I'm holding out to July and see how desperate they get.
    Live Free or Die

  16. #23266
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The Mayonnaisium
    Posts
    10,467
    A home listed fourth quarter last year popped up in my feed yesterday. Reason? Price increase.

  17. #23267
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    19,067
    Ballsy
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  18. #23268
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    112
    Quote Originally Posted by Mazderati View Post
    A home listed fourth quarter last year popped up in my feed yesterday. Reason? Price increase.
    I know what I got no lowballers

  19. #23269
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Bend
    Posts
    1,350
    Quote Originally Posted by MCS5280 View Post
    I know what I got no lowballers
    Always an interesting predicament. My guess is that broker prices low promising multiple offers, which could have been sound advice this time last year. Some guys and gals only do a deal or two a year and work from home, they can be slow to adjust strategies. I tend to call the listing agent and pick their brains a little if I have a client interested in one of these. Who knows they could have replaced the HVAC or roof.

  20. #23270
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    9,300ft
    Posts
    21,938
    No way peak vacation areas with huge local housing crunches like Aspen, Tahoe, Summit, Vail are going to correct 20-30%... at least not in the less than 1-1.5 million dollar properties. It didn't after 2008 either. I doubt even 10%. It corrects 20% and I'd buy a second property as a rental.
    Last edited by summit; 01-24-2023 at 09:50 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  21. #23271
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Keep Tacoma Feared
    Posts
    5,266
    What place in the US is (or is going) to correct 20-30%? Even places like Seattle and San Francisco are just seeing minor price corrections, not even close to pre-pandemic prices. Even with all the local tech layoffs and people supposedly fleeing the city.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SEXRNSA

  22. #23272
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Location
    my own little world
    Posts
    5,838
    I think some other shit is gonna have to break grievously for prices to “correct” beyond, say, 10%.

    But I’m a shit prognosticator.
    focus.

  23. #23273
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Not in the PRB
    Posts
    32,782
    I hope y'all preaching massive price corrections are correct, because that's how I can get back in. But I don't see it coming, at least not in the really good places. But the market has softened for sure, so maybe sometime soon I can buy. But I'm also fine renting right now.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

  24. #23274
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Making the Bowl Great Again
    Posts
    13,779
    Danno, I thought you recently finished a big remodel? You sold that place?

  25. #23275
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Not in the PRB
    Posts
    32,782
    Quote Originally Posted by RootSkier View Post
    Danno, I thought you recently finished a big remodel? You sold that place?
    the remodel was 6 years ago.

    the separation and sale of the house was 18 months ago.

    the move out of Boulder was 6 months ago.

    the final divorce decree is (hopefully) next week.
    Last edited by Danno; 01-24-2023 at 11:12 AM.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

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