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  1. #22201
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    God you're a twat.
    I'd just leave it at this.

  2. #22202
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    Specific words matter when you're talking about technical terms.

  3. #22203
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    trolls get hungry for attention…

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  4. #22204
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    The very definition of inflation is an increase in monetary supply.

    Fact.

    Consumer inflation is more complicated. But usually arrives after monetary inflation.
    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    Umm. Yeah. Letís trust the federal reserve.
    A non federal group of private bankers.
    Whoís goal is to keep inflation at two percent.

    Monetary inflation is well known.
    Weimar Republic
    Zimbabwe
    Argentina.

    But keep money printer brrrrrrrr

    LMK how that works 7 trillion later.

    Monetary inflation is not the same as consumer inflation.
    But the former always always leads to the latter.
    Wake the fuck up.

    Brrrrrrrrrrrrr
    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    Were you always this stupid and unedumacated?

    It only took me a second of googles.

    Wtf.


    =========

    Monetary inflation is a sustained increase in the money supply of a country. Depending on many factors, especially public expectations, the fundamental state and development of the economy, and the transmission mechanism, it is likely to result in price inflation, which is usually just called "inflation", which is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services. There is general agreement among economists that there is a causal relationship between monetary inflation and price inflation. But there is neither a common view about the exact theoretical mechanisms and relationships, nor about how to accurately measure it. This relationship is also constantly changing, within a larger complex economic system.Wikipedia
    Self quoting. Wtf asshats.
    I was clear from first post what inflation is.
    And how it leads to your butthurt grocery inflation.

    But please. School me on the current inflation.

    Im waiting.

    Does it involve Ukraine?

  5. #22205
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    The US has been exporting its monetary inflation for many many decades.

    Velocity is interesting.

    M1. M2. M3. Wait whut? Why donít we measure M3 anymore?

    That died in 2006.

    Even consumer inflation measure is fucked.

    Substitution. Yeah. Fuck off. I want steak, not hamburger
    OECD measures M3 and the Fed reports it still:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    M3 is up by a factor of four over the past 20 years. Inflation as everyone else understands it is only up about 1.6x during that period. Are you suggesting we should expect retail prices to more than double again any day now?

  6. #22206
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    OECD measures M3 and the Fed reports it still:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    M3 is up by a factor of four over the past 20 years. Inflation as everyone else understands it is only up about 1.6x during that period. Are you suggesting we should expect retail prices to more than double again any day now?
    Yes. It’s coming.

    It’s weird st Louis reports M3. But not the actual fed.

    PS. That chart is scary

  7. #22207
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    Self quoting. Wtf asshats.
    I was clear from first post what inflation is.
    And how it leads to your butthurt grocery inflation.

    But please. School me on the current inflation.

    Im waiting.

    Does it involve Ukraine?
    The very definition of inflation is an increase in consumer prices. Everyone is telling you are wrong, yet you keep ploughing ahead.

    Just like your bullshit 911 conspiracies. I still canít believe you keep quoting the Melting Point of steel as evidence of why they couldnít collapse.

    I guess if you are dumb enough to make and standby that argument this shouldnít be a surprise.

  8. #22208
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    Yes. Itís coming.

    Itís weird st Louis reports M3. But not the actual fed.

    PS. That chart is scary
    If you truly believe that massive inflation is coming, you should buy shit tons of TIPS. Youíll make a killing if youíre right.

    Bond market is currently pricing in an average 2.73% inflation over the next 5 years, 2.23% the following 5.

  9. #22209
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    OECD measures M3 and the Fed reports it still:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    M3 is up by a factor of four over the past 20 years. Inflation as everyone else understands it is only up about 1.6x during that period. Are you suggesting we should expect retail prices to more than double again any day now?
    Man, that's a lot of money sitting in the uber rich stock funds and bank accounts. Most of it never taxed.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  10. #22210
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    If you truly believe that massive inflation is coming, you should buy shit tons of TIPS. You’ll make a killing if you’re right.

    Bond market is currently pricing in an average 2.73% inflation over the next 5 years, 2.23% the following 5.
    Yeah. It’s interesting times. I don’t have free cash. All my money is on hard assets. Which is usually a good hedge.

    It’s crazy what you say that the market is pricing 2 to 3 percent inflation.
    I don’t follow it as much as you obviously. But just go shopping for food or gas. It’s nutters.

    Edumacate me why the market isn’t seeing inflation?

    TIPS are based on federal inflation rates which have been lying for decades.

    Around here labor is insane. If you can find someone that wants to work.
    It’s trickle up economics.

  11. #22211
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    Inflation (price inflation. Not monetary)
    . Without “substitution”
    They changed the rules.

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  12. #22212
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    Disagree on the TIPS thing actually. If inflation goes up ( more than whatís currently priced) rates will go up. Tips are a longer duration asset. So youíll get hit w the duration component. Just wonít get hit as hard as regularly T bonds. See: Q1 2022. Tips kinda suck.
    Decisions Decisions

  13. #22213
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summer View Post
    My two takeaways:

    1.) Talk of inflation angries up the blood.

    2.) The TGR overlords didn't spend any of the PPP money they got on a new box fan.
    It’s interesting to look at the somewhat similar to the usa crash in Australian consumer sentiment and compare it to the massively different pandemic response and prepandemic situation

  14. #22214
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    And lots of houses sell at auction, yeah, lots of differences

    my ancedata is also way more extended family property magnets.

  15. #22215
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summer View Post
    Our housing debt is astronomical and we don't have 30 year fixed mortgages. Most everyone's on variable, or up to a max 5 year fixed rate.

    There's other things at play, but lots of people have gone all-in on buying a house like these two teachers who spent $3.7 million on a tear-down.
    Wow. That’s insane. None of those houses are nice.

  16. #22216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    Inflation (price inflation. Not monetary)
    . Without “substitution”
    They changed the rules.

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    Hmmm, shadowstats, seems legit. Also love how they don't drag the x axis back to 1990 to show difference from origin.
    Let me guess, Google searches for something that supported your position?

  17. #22217
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    I’ve been a fan of shadowstats since the feds stopped counting inflation the way they used to.
    Substitution is bullshit.

    I’m not sure they are legit. But our government lies to us. So I trust independent sites more than the fed.

    Ymmv. Or. Just look at your bills and expenses.

    Here’s the beginning of the discrepancy

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  18. #22218
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Disagree on the TIPS thing actually. If inflation goes up ( more than what’s currently priced) rates will go up. Tips are a longer duration asset. So you’ll get hit w the duration component. Just won’t get hit as hard as regularly T bonds. See: Q1 2022. Tips kinda suck.
    To be clear: no one should be taking investment advice from me. I find the economics of it all pretty interesting, but couldn’t tell you anything about tax implications when investing outside of a 401k.

  19. #22219
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    I’ve been a fan of shadowstats since the feds stopped counting inflation the way they used to.
    Substitution is bullshit.

    I’m not sure they are legit. But our government lies to us. So I trust independent sites more than the fed.

    Ymmv. Or. Just look at your bills and expenses.

    Here’s the beginning of the discrepancy

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    The Fed probably still tracks your preferred measure of inflation , it just might not be the one that’s widely reported, or the one that the Fed targets for monetary policy, or the one that is used to adjust Social Security cost of living.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Edit: Also, substitution is not bullshit. It’s grounded in pretty sound reasoning:

    Mainstream economists have a standard response: If we did not account for changed consumption patterns in response to changed prices, they say, we would overstate the cost of maintaining a constant level of satisfaction. Consider an example. Last week you went to the supermarket and bought 5 pounds of chicken at $2 a pound and 5 pounds of steak at $5 a pound, $35 total. This week you go to the supermarket and find that chicken still costs $2 but steak has gone up to $10. There is no question that the new prices leave you worse off than you were the week before, but how do you react?

    You would need $60 to buy the same basket of goods that you bought last week for $35. In reality, you might not have that $60 in your wallet or purse, but if I gave you a $60 coupon that you could spend only at the meat counter, you would probably not spend it on the same basket of goods you bought last week. Instead, you might buy, say, 10 pounds of chicken and 4 pounds of steak. However, since $60 would be enough to buy your previous selection if you wanted to, we could conclude that you would change the mix only if the new $60 selection gave you more satisfaction than the original one.”

    https://www.thestreet.com/economonit...-by-economists

    But in the end, all of these different measures are just tools to try and understand what’s going on in the economy. Different measures are going to make sense to use depending on what you’re trying to understand. If you don’t want to consider substitution effects, then just check the non-chained CPI.

  20. #22220
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    Sep 2006
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    Got this in my email box this morning;

    Vote to Limit “Fractional Share”, Timeshare and Corporate Occupancy

    Say NO to Short-Term Occupancy.

    Last fall Owners in our HOA passed an amendment to the CC&R’s to prohibit short-term rentals, defined as rental periods of less than 30 days. An overwhelming majority, 85% to 15%, wanted to ensure short-term occupancy of homes within our community was not allowed. At the time we began this balloting process in 2020, VRBO-like rentals were the primary concern relative to short-term, transient use of properties. There are now other threats rapidly developing in the real estate arena, including one that focuses on “fractional share ownership or use”, which typically targets eight owners sharing a home. They are similar to timeshares, but with fewer owners. There are two companies we are aware of in the Central Oregon market that are now purchasing homes and then trying to immediately sell fractional shares in these properties. One is Pacaso Homes (pacaso.com), and the other is Ember (emberhome.com).

    Per reviewing their websites, a 1/8th ownership in a home typically results in the following:

    • An Owner gets 44-45 days of usage per year of the property

    • That typically happens over 6-7 visits (6-7 day average per visit, meaning that every week a different Owner comes in)

    • On an exception bases, the maximum length of a stay is 14 days, i.e. their model mandates short-term stays

    • The home cannot be rented but an owner can designate “registered guests”, which can be anybody the owner wants. An Owner does not have to be present for any such stay.



    One home has already been purchased by Pacaso within our HOA, and the sale of fractional shares in this home is currently being marketed. Therefore, it is with a sense of urgency that we are recommending that we quickly vote to amend our CC&R’s to prohibit this fractional share ownership structure, any timeshare structure, and any other workaround-type structure that currently exists or may be developed for the purpose of creating short-term occupancy use of a home. We can’t necessarily stop the one home that was already purchased, but we can impact all future such transactions with an approved amendment.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  21. #22221
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    Paging Art Shirk to the white courtesy phone!
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "I'd eat a bag of Dicks and wash it down with a Coke any day." - iceman

  22. #22222
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    How the fuck do you sell fractional shares in a hoa?

  23. #22223
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    I have seen them for years as condos in B.C. (Victoria). The buyers obviously all participate in utilities, HOA and special assessment fees.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  24. #22224
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    Got this in my email box this morning;
    these companies have been around for awhile now
    one of them just folded recently based out of denver can't remember the details

    it's a pyramid scheme unfortunately they need lots of buys and need to see 9/8 ownership not 8/8 to survive
    the numbers don't add up and like a time share the maintenance costs are sorta hidden and will give the buyer a suprise at some point

    just had a good discussion about south park (fairplay colorado) area today the writing is on the wall over there
    way too over valued and one too many homeowner builds plus people who think they can build cheap over there lots of unfinished properties and lots of over valued homes on the market just sitting and other people who realized they bought a house at the end of shitty dirt road

  25. #22225
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    Used to do some work with a COA that was fractional. Pain in the ass. They fired me-probably because they didn't want to hear what they needed to. Four buildings needed new roofs for a total of about $180k. They voted no because they didn't want the assessment. Without deep details, a few other bills came up due to the lack of upkeep and those bills were a lot more than $180k.
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Well, I'm not allowed to delete this post, but, I can say, go fuck yourselves, everybody!

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