Real Estate Crash thread

[J. Barron DeJong]

‘Calculated Risk’ blog is a great source for information about real estate economics.

For example:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...pdate.html?m=1

Seasonally adjusted housing inventory bottomed beginning of March, and is now up 43% since then.

[sirbumpsalot]

‘Calculated Risk’ blog is a great source for information about real estate economics.

For example:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...pdate.html?m=1

Seasonally adjusted housing inventory bottomed beginning of March, and is now up 43% since then.

I found this useful:

"Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 6.4% from 324 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 52.5% from 724 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 63.3% from 938 thousand."

[Kevo]

I'd expect inventory to go up with unemployment. There are a lot of high burn companies running out of runway.

[AdironRider]

Where’s Harry with that tick rock meme?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/pers...ter/ar-AAXCmni

[m1b13f]

Starting to see some fearful landowners in the greater Seattle area. I've picked up a handful of rentals this year for 2019 zillow pricing. Cash is still king as missed payments continue to track up and plummeting RSU's have even got the techbros on edge.


Sit on the sideline if you can, the real dip is coming.

[4matic]

New home sales in the United States sank 16.6% mom to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 in April of 2022, the lowest since April of 2020 and well below forecasts of 750,000. Sales fell in all regions: the South (-19.8%), the Midwest (-15.1%), the West (-13.8%) and the Northeast (-5.9%). Meanwhile, the median sales price of new houses sold last month was USD 450,600, much higher than USD 376,600 a year earlier, while the average sales price was USD 570,300, up from USD 434,800.

[stalefish3169]

This is wild. It really amazed me how quickly people (mostly existing homeowners) wanted to normalize the "houses just go up 20% every year" narrative. Seems like a lot of covid home buyers going to need snorkels soon.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/s...2Apnlp9ZA&s=19

[Kevo]

This is wild. It really amazed me how quickly people (mostly existing homeowners) wanted to normalize the "houses just go up 20% every year" narrative. Seems like a lot of covid home buyers going to need snorkels soon.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/s...2Apnlp9ZA&s=19

The YoY mortgage payment price increase is wild. I can't buy the idea that there are infinite buyers out there willing to pay not only for the highest prices ever but also to pay that much with mortgages rates that have gone up 100% YoY.

I do wonder how the institutional investors will affect things. Mortgage payments don't matter if you are paying cash

[Core Shot]

Around here it’s a lot of individual investors doing seasonal rentals.

It really fucks over the working class

[Toadman]

Where’s Harry with that tick rock meme?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/pers...ter/ar-AAXCmni

Damn, the Gen Z and Millenial's spending like it's 2099. Very interesting read. Technology making it super easy to rack up debt. Who needs a wallet anymore or a credit card.

[Core Shot]

Damn, the Gen Z and Millenial's spending like it's 2099. Very interesting read. Technology making it super easy to rack up debt. Who needs a wallet anymore or a credit card.

Missed that link. Sent it to my teens. Thx

Consumer debt jumped $52 billion in March, the largest increase on record. In California, 91 percent of consumer loans made in 2020 were BNPL loans. More than 40 percent of Gen-Z consumers will have used BNPL by the end of the year, the highest penetration of any age group. And now those debts are going bad.

BNPL isn’t the only fintech fad that’s fubaring the finances of a generation. Apps like Robinhood that gamify day trading and call it investing may be worse. Options trades make up nearly half of the company’s revenue. But making these kinds of bets may be more dangerous than casino gambling — you can easily and unwittingly wager much more than you have, and structural inefficiencies put amateur investors at a disadvantage to the pros.

[doebedoe]

We're about to start writing offers. I'd love to time the market perfectly, but reality is that life doesn't wait. We're in a 2/1, 1000sq ft in a decent hood (1 full WFH, 1 WFH 3 days a week), but need more space for the next 15-20 years for planned kiddo. Looking to buy that long-time house this summer.

We decided to go HELOC route for some down payment assistance, and pay it back when our house sells. Given we're at the very bottom of the Denver market for a decent SFH (probably list ~$500k) on a big lot inside the city, I hope that our sale should be reasonably quick. Seems this route gives us more time to be picky about what we want, not waive inspections, and not pay a bunch over asking. Already feels like the summer lull is starting here.

Appreciate the thoughtful posts here -- hard to understand where we sit in these larger dynamics.

[4matic]

A heloc this close to purchase might affect your options for finance.

I bought my house in the short summer lull last year. Maybe not a better price but less competition.

[doebedoe]

A heloc this close to purchase might affect your options for finance.

I bought my house in the short summer lull last year. Maybe not a better price but less competition.

Yeah -- we've worked the HELOC / mortgage details out with our broker to make sure we're still OK. It reduces the amount we qualify for, but we qualify for more than we'd want to spend.

Trying to do the same thing with the lull.

[dunfree]

Where’s Harry with that tick rock meme?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/pers...ter/ar-AAXCmni

huh, wonder why so many of the companies mentioned in that article recently announced layoffs?

Sheen is undercovered for its insane growth

[Harry]

Some people are still throwing crazy numbers like it's June 2021

HA! Glad to hear June 2021 sticks in your memory. That’s the month you sold my Big Sky place for me. Thanks for making me crazy money WRG !


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Toadman]

Missed that link. Sent it to my teens. Thx

Consumer debt jumped $52 billion in March, the largest increase on record. In California, 91 percent of consumer loans made in 2020 were BNPL loans. More than 40 percent of Gen-Z consumers will have used BNPL by the end of the year, the highest penetration of any age group. And now those debts are going bad.

BNPL isn’t the only fintech fad that’s fubaring the finances of a generation. Apps like Robinhood that gamify day trading and call it investing may be worse. Options trades make up nearly half of the company’s revenue. But making these kinds of bets may be more dangerous than casino gambling — you can easily and unwittingly wager much more than you have, and structural inefficiencies put amateur investors at a disadvantage to the pros.

I actually had no idea what BNPL is. I'm showing my age, but at first I thought it was some new fancy online crypto banking app or something ultra futuristic way to pay for stuff. Turns out it's just another way to easily separate consumers from their cash and rack up debt.

[Ted Striker]

I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today

[Mazderati]

Recent Planet Money episode on BNPL. https://www.npr.org/2022/05/10/10978...now-pay-dearly

[Core Shot]

My boys daytrade options on robinhood.

Kinda scary. But I’m using it as a teaching lesson. They know it’s gambling. Versus long term investing. It allows us to discuss the market, the economy, fed, and risk tolerance.

They’re playing with a few hundo. Not enough to go broke. No margin trades. But they are so savvy.
Just yesterday when I was talking to my youngest I explained why I’m not a trader and most of my wealth is from hard assets like real estate. And he got it. So cool.

[dunfree]

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30041

What explains record U.S. house price growth since late 2019? We show that the shift to remote work explains over one half of the 23.8 percent national house price increase over this period.

probably higher in some areas

[liv2ski]

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30041


probably higher in some areas

Yup, Mammoth up about 100% since 2019. WFH is the only explanation i can see

[yeahman]

So why aren't prices going down wherever all these WFH people are moving away from? Something seems out of balance.

[dunfree]

So why aren't prices going down wherever all these WFH people are moving away from? Something seems out of balance.

rents dropped a lot in a bunch of big city’s - they are heading up now though. Think of it as shifting the home demand curve forward

[sirbumpsalot]

So why aren't prices going down wherever all these WFH people are moving away from? Something seems out of balance.

One man's trash is another man's treasure....