Real Estate Crash thread

[fastfred]

Won’t someone think of the upper middle class and their struggle to profit in a neighborhood at the expense of the community they do not live in and rarely participate in? Please?


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Many short term rental owners are absolute dumb asses I need tomake a list of stupid shit they say it's endless a good portion of them are strung out financially not terrible but they let's say live in Denver have 2 kids 2 nice cars a 500k mortgage and why not a condo in keystone but the only way to make the condo work is to short term it or they have too much over head

These people will talk your ear off about how fucking great they are

Then there are other people iknow who have millions of dollars in cash instead of parking there money in one place they invest in mtn real estate and short term it the return issue all around imagine have 2 million and you just need something to do w it

[Percy Rideout]

Many short term rental owners are absolute dumb asses I need tomake a list of stupid shit they say it's endless a good portion of them are strung out financially not terrible but they let's say live in Denver have 2 kids 2 nice cars a 500k mortgage and why not a condo in keystone but the only way to make the condo work is to short term it or they have too much over head

These people will talk your ear off about how fucking great they are

Then there are other people iknow who have millions of dollars in cash instead of parking there money in one place they invest in mtn real estate and short term it the return issue all around imagine have 2 million and you just need something to do w it

Same shit one valley over from yours.

The worst is when the kids of some patriarch inherit the family's falling over 70's ski house. Want to play the remodel/modernization game but try to spend $0 in the process. Infighting, different opinions and directions. Fun times.

[Toadman]

Damn, looking good Toadman. It'll all be worth it (easy for me to say when it's not my money ;-)). When's your move-in date?

Dan - We moved in on January 28th. That pic was about 30 minutes before the movers showed up. It's now a house full of boxes and furniture that needs some attention. Only about 2 months behind the original move in date. House needs some painting but that will wait until March or April when there's a decent window of dry and warm weather.

Pic from December when we had some decent snow and before the deck was installed and the remaining siding was installed under the deck.

[Foggy_Goggles]

let's say live in Denver have 2 kids 2 nice cars a 500k mortgage and why not a condo in keystone but the only way to make the condo work is to short term it or they have too much over head

These people will talk your ear off about how fucking great they are

Exactly. And now it's real bad because all the moms in the kid yoga car line down in Lakewood can't shut the fuck up #IgotaplaceinFraser and how much cheddar they have made in the last ten years in mountain realestate.

So you got the worst of the worst trying to keep up with the Chad and Buffy buying at the wrong time realizing they can't afford their remodel and that's my fault and I'm the asshole? If I general a condo remodels the terms are "it will be done when its done and it will cost what it costs". Around here it is just not financially worth the time for the contractor.

For example, the last project I looked was going to be a pretty simply 2 bath remodel. Pretty much a side job for me. Very little self perform labor. I emailed the pro forma scope and schedule from the site consultation. Homeboy redlined it saying that the project needed to be done in in 6 weeks because he had the place rented for Memorial Day and the last week of ski season. I told him that just the shower glass has a six week lead time after the tile is installed and I was gonna be on vacation so I can't do it.

Unless the people are willing to double there price and have an open ended timeline, these jobs will never get done.

[fastfred]

Meanwhile I just jerked off in my van watched the sunset and now I need to eat dinner

Life's a bitch

As soon as this shit crashes the better off I'll be

[Meadow Skipper]

Meanwhile I just jerked off in my van watched the sunset and now I need to eat dinner

Life's a bitch

As soon as this shit crashes the better off I'll be

Keepin’ it real.

[Mazderati]

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...hike-rcna13401

Articles like this are showing up in my feed every few days but I thought this one made some good points. The proportion of homes owned by corporations and investment funds specifically to rent is quoted at 17% and growing which is kind of mind-blowing.

I don't see quarter or half point hikes reducing demand in any meaningful way. I could even see the opposite as people scramble to buy before rates go higher. Add in the ever-increasing number of cash buyers whose demand does not decrease with higher rates and corporate appetite for more homes in the portfolio. Sucks to be a buyer. Could soon suck as much to be a renter. Squeeze, squeeze, squeeze.

[liv2ski]

It does suck to be a buyer. Now that the refi business is dead I am relying on buyers for business. The poor fuckers are always overbid by an all cash offer. Maybe 10% of the clients I have pre-approved actually end up buying. The rest go away in frustration. I have never in my 37 years of doing loans seen such a fucked up market. Vibes to the buyers in So Cal.

[wolfelot]

It does suck to be a buyer. Now that the refi business is dead I am relying on buyers for business. The poor fuckers are always overbid by an all cash offer. Maybe 10% of the clients I have pre-approved actually end up buying. The rest go away in frustration. I have never in my 37 years of doing loans seen such a fucked up market. Vibes to the buyers in So Cal.

Whoa around 10% of your pre approved buyers manage to complete a sale? Ouch.

[altasnob]

The proportion of homes owned by corporations and investment funds specifically to rent is quoted at 17% and growing which is kind of mind-blowing.

That 17% number appears to only apply to new homes, not all homes in US. Or maybe it is that of all homes (new and old) put on the market, 17% get snatched up by corporate investors. Still mind-blowing

[Foggy_Goggles]

VC and PE money is financing the condomiumization of hotels which is crushing the tax revenue of municipalities. STR buyers have silent partners and all kinda of alternate funding. Realtors buy the "good deals", polish the turd, buy some new furniture, grab the HOA buy the balls, take some pro photos, establish rental history then flip me.

Meanwhile, Jimmy Tourning Gear at the Ski Area and Jenny Can't Ski for Shit are washing the cell phones, family ski pass, all home improvements and a couple vehicles through "the business" while trying to take all revenue as Venmo to the personal account.

Walks like a duck...talks like a duck?

Anderson's stated lead time for window is 36 weeks. Most contractors I know have stopped even calling people back. I sat it traffic from my house to the ski area at 1pm last Saturday. There is no lodging available in town for the whole month of March I'm told. Airfare into Colorado is ridiculous for Spring Break. And we are supposed to give people a tax break for there greasy side hustle?

[oldnew_guy]

VC and PE money is financing the condomiumization of hotels which is crushing the tax revenue of municipalities. STR buyers have silent partners and all kinda of alternate funding. Realtors buy the "good deals", polish the turd, buy some new furniture, grab the HOA buy the balls, take some pro photos, establish rental history then flip me.

Meanwhile, Jimmy Tourning Gear at the Ski Area and Jenny Can't Ski for Shit are washing the cell phones, family ski pass, all home improvements and a couple vehicles through "the business" while trying to take all revenue as Venmo to the personal account.

Walks like a duck...talks like a duck?

Anderson's stated lead time for window is 36 weeks. Most contractors I know have stopped even calling people back. I sat it traffic from my house to the ski area at 1pm last Saturday. There is no lodging available in town for the whole month of March I'm told. Airfare into Colorado is ridiculous for Spring Break. And we are supposed to give people a tax break for there greasy side hustle?

Gentrification of the high country. Not sure there is an example in US history where it was stopped once it started.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Gentrification of the high country. Not sure there is an example in US history where it was stopped once it started.

Perhaps the urban areas right now? SF, Manhattan etc.? I don't think the Colorado Mountain Towns are particularly unique in there challenges but it's what I know. Specifically what we have been talking about it the asset owning class keeping on keeping on and having a fit anytime the conversation starts to look like someone is coming at there wallet.

Its brilliant manipulation from the powers that be. The upper class thinks they are just barely scraping buy (usually base on shitty expectations and planning) such that they've got nothing to give. The upper upper class just keep taking more from everyone. The collateral damage is everyone else and the social fabric of the majority of the country but nobody has time to think about that because they gotta go grab another Frappuccino they go sit in ski traffic.

[Ted Striker]

Place turned out nice Toadman. I see dog approves.

[dan_pdx]

The poor fuckers are always overbid by an all cash offer.

Can confirm...we did lose one house to a _lower_ cash offer, but we've had multiple occasions where we lose to an all cash offer that's also higher than ours. Can't compete with that.

I looked into Flyhomes (they give short term loans so you can make a "cash" offer) and it's not really viable if you're trying to buy remote: their agents don't know the neighborhoods in B'ham where we're trying to buy and can't give any useful information. Seems more geared to offshore buyers who are just looking for an investment property, or people who aren't relying on the agents to be knowledgeable about the neighborhoods or condition of the house.

[dan_pdx]

Meanwhile, Jimmy Tourning Gear at the Ski Area and Jenny Can't Ski for Shit

Ha! Those assholes

[dunfree]

Perhaps the urban areas right now? SF, Manhattan etc.? I don't think the Colorado Mountain Towns are particularly unique in there challenges but it's what I know. Specifically what we have been talking about it the asset owning class keeping on keeping on and having a fit anytime the conversation starts to look like someone is coming at there wallet.

Its brilliant manipulation from the powers that be. The upper class thinks they are just barely scraping buy (usually base on shitty expectations and planning) such that they've got nothing to give. The upper upper class just keep taking more from everyone. The collateral damage is everyone else and the social fabric of the majority of the country but nobody has time to think about that because they gotta go grab another Frappuccino they go sit in ski traffic.

lol. Don’t think there’s an urban area that’s stopped gentrifying in the shitdemic - home prices are still going up or flat which != stopped. Record median price last year in sf
https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/ar...e-16746322.php
but “it’s dieing”

[Name Redacted]

I’ve put in six offers over asking in a Vail bedroom community with 50% cash down, preapproval, and no contingencies I’ve and been outbid every time. One closed a week after they stopped accepting offers on a cash offer. One was people that we knew who got 50k over offering on an already high asking price. This all happened in Gypsum, CO. Haha. I remember thinking that place was such a shithole and now I can’t even compete to buy a house there! Cracks me up.

[altasnob]

Meanwhile, Jimmy Tourning Gear at the Ski Area and Jenny Can't Ski for Shit are washing the cell phones, family ski pass, all home improvements and a couple vehicles through "the business" while trying to take all revenue as Venmo to the personal account.

Lets face, every single one of us with the financial means should be buying a STR in a ski town. It really is an amazing investment if you want to visit that ski town often. Every visit you get to deduct your travel expenses (you're checking in on your property, right?). You get to deduct mortgage interest, repairs, cleaning. Hell, you can even depreciate the cost of the STR over time. It's like you get paid to go skiing.

Changing that would involve changing the US tax code. Not going to happen. Instead of fighting it, embrace it.

[Ted Striker]

The proportion of homes owned by corporations and investment funds specifically to rent is quoted at 17% and growing which is kind of mind-blowing.

Doesn't surprise me. The number of housing units in my town has dramatically increased during the last few years, and it's mostly large apartment buildings that are 100% rentals.

[Mazderati]

More on that:

"The Census Bureau counted nearly 20 million rental properties, with 48.2 million individual units, in its 2018 Rental Housing Finance Survey, the most recent one conducted. Individual investors owned nearly 14.3 million of those properties (71.6%), comprising almost 19.9 million units (41.2%). For-profit businesses of various sorts owned 3.7 million properties, or 18.8%, but their holdings totaled 21.7 million units, or 45% of the total. Entities such as housing cooperative organizations and nonprofits owned smaller shares of the total."

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...ns-in-the-u-s/

[muted reborn]

Changing that would involve changing the US tax code. Not going to happen. Instead of fighting it, embrace it.

Yes, bend over to your corporate overlord AirBnB, have no morals or nuance on how to change things in your community, and just shrug your shoulders about the problem and profit profit profit.

[Toadman]

Place turned out nice Toadman. I see dog approves.

Haha! Yes, he spent tons of time there during the build process. He is on a first name basis with all the contractors. He moved into the walk-in closet like it was his own personal kennel and now it's his house.

[Toadman]

Lets face, every single one of us with the financial means should be buying a STR in a ski town. It really is an amazing investment if you want to visit that ski town often. Every visit you get to deduct your travel expenses (you're checking in on your property, right?). You get to deduct mortgage interest, repairs, cleaning. Hell, you can even depreciate the cost of the STR over time. It's like you get paid to go skiing.

Changing that would involve changing the US tax code. Not going to happen. Instead of fighting it, embrace it.

Probably right. Maybe the only thing that will change with the tax code is the SALT deduction. And I didn't realize you could depreciate an STR. If that's the case, then they really should be carved out and cities should be able to assess taxes differently on them.

[wolfelot]

Lets face, every single one of us with the financial means should be buying a STR in a ski town. It really is an amazing investment if you want to visit that ski town often. Every visit you get to deduct your travel expenses (you're checking in on your property, right?). You get to deduct mortgage interest, repairs, cleaning. Hell, you can even depreciate the cost of the STR over time. It's like you get paid to go skiing.

Changing that would involve changing the US tax code. Not going to happen. Instead of fighting it, embrace it.

How many people (individual owners rather than companies) actually approach breaking even with a STR? I had always figured most people manage to pay for their HOA, utilities, taxes and almost no or just a very small part of the mortgage and call it good. Like they manage to pay for about 1/3 of the total carrying cost of the property and that is all. That person still may need to come up with a lot of money each month to pay all the bills.