Real Estate Crash thread

[skaredshtles]

Denver has much more industry that people even realize.

This.

We even have our own mountain bike manufacturer...

[ötzi]

Ha, yeah I keep on going. Yeah I've been involved in building a lot of shit for someone who's not in the business, happy to try to help any time.

[muted reborn]

I see the west these days in the home stretch of being 'colonized' and settled for the second time/wave which was mostly people like us moving out here for the past 20-30 years from the east/midwest - and house prices are going to somewhat stay at a high level for a new normal. Similar to parts of Europe where people rent more and live in apartments more. Sure there will be crashes and ups and downs but I don't see the bottom dropping out in most places and never coming back. This is nothing like 2008.

[Toadman]

On top of that - what does Denver have that will ensure it continues to be an in-demand metro? SF has tech and biotech. LA has entertainment and fashion. SD has the beach.
I don't know of anything Denver has that couldn't be duplicated by other mountain west metros. Am I wrong?
That's the biggest risk - demand cooling as there's no tentpole growth industry.

How is the homeless situation in Denver? Is it as bad as LA, SF and SD? What's the tax situation like? Is it worse than Cali? Does Denver have 4 seasons or just two like SoCal, Drought/Fire season and flood season?

Seems like there's plenty of developable land East of Denver. So, build it and they will come. Right?

[Toadman]

This.

We even have our own mountain bike manufacturer...

Plus, lots of pet food manufacturing!

[Yukonrider]

As with the numbers on my estate.
$2700 rental income with $1900 mortgage. I'm on the low end of the rental market in my neighborhood, most are $2800-3k
$600k house(that's why I'm leaning towards), needs $33k>HELOC down cause it's a blend VA/Conventional
Numbers today were 3.25% $3k a month with escow, my signifiant other puts in $900
I'm back down to $2100 a month.

It sounds like an appreciation play on the 2nd house which is riskier than a cash flow play, but common in the growth markets. What can you do to increase cash flow on the current primary, or are you using the lower number as a conservative number?

It sounds like a fair play, though you should consider what all are saying here, growth may not be unlimited (said everyone 3 years ago). If things get darker and rents drop by 25 percent could you weather the storm? What is the upside on the new place, does it have something that will keep it valuable (trail proximity etc) if values drop, or is it just another house in the suburbs?

I'm currently on the go for it side, but don't know you or your life,

[zion zig zag]

Yeah man crazy, I remember that day! Over 25 years in for me now, nearing the end zone, I’m so ready!
If you’re still in utah, you might be able to buy me that beer sooner than later. First 10 days of March, I think.

I'm supposed to be in Europe in that time frame, but we'll see what covid has in store.

[Dantheman]

I see the west these days in the home stretch of being 'colonized' and settled for the second time/wave which was mostly people like us moving out here for the past 20-30 years from the east/midwest - and house prices are going to somewhat stay at a high level for a new normal. Similar to parts of Europe where people rent more and live in apartments more. Sure there will be crashes and ups and downs but I don't see the bottom dropping out in most places and never coming back. This is nothing like 2008.

I mostly agree, but I don't know about the "home stretch" part. Only 25% of the US population lives in the West, and that's mostly in a handful of major metro areas, so you only need a relatively small amount of emigration from Eastern and Midwestern shitholes to keep Western growth going gangbusters for a long time to come. Water will be an issue, but it's a very surmountable engineering challenge. Just look at this picture and tell me where growth is going to happen for the next 50 years:

[muted reborn]

I mostly agree, but I don't know about the "home stretch" part. Only 25% of the US population lives in the West, and that's mostly in a handful of major metro areas, so you only need a relatively small amount of emigration from Eastern and Midwestern shitholes to keep Western growth going gangbusters for a long time to come. Water will be an issue, but it's a very surmountable engineering challenge. Just look at this picture and tell me where growth is going to happen for the next 50 years:

True, maybe we are in the middle part of the second wave - we are over the hump IMO though now we just need builders, ha. As for that pic, yes there is huge swaths of open area but what about water access?

[dunfree]

Isn’t most water use in the west still agriculture?

given the migrants from the shitholes have been younger (<40) and educated, there’s probably still a boom of growth coming as they hit peak earning/family years.

the answer to “what does Denver have”is “what 20-30 something’s wanted” same as Nashville.

[ötzi]

Just look at this picture and tell me where growth is going to happen for the next 50 years:

Looks like there's a lot of room Upstate.

[skaredshtles]

<snip> Water will be an issue, but it's a very surmountable engineering challenge.

Whatever you do, don't tell Bunny.

[ötzi]

A lot of things can be fixed by engineering but politics isn't one of them.

[mcphee]

Looks like there's a lot of room Upstate.

Please point on the map where that is exactly.


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[Mazderati]

Dark areas of the lights map suggest population growth potential if open space is the primary driver. It's of course heavily related, but I think cost is the bigger driver and the one reason continued urbanization would decelerate (apart from the COVID x factor).

[muted reborn]

True, maybe we are in the middle part of the second wave - we are over the hump IMO though now we just need builders, ha. As for that pic, yes there is huge swaths of open area but what about water access?

Wait, Dan did mention water in his post I missed it first round....

A lot of things can be fixed by engineering but politics isn't one of them.

...but I agree with this. Or if it does get fixed it will take a long, long time thanks to dumb humans.

[dunfree]

Looks like there's a lot of room Upstate.

Lots of rural room everywhere… where no one wants to be.


people might not want to live in a city, but they are still moving near them for the most part.

[Dantheman]

As for that pic, yes there is huge swaths of open area but what about water access?

Mostly it will expand outward from existing metros with established utility providers. Look at the march of development south of Provo, I-15 will be 10 lanes wide all the way to Nephi sooner than later. Same thing going north from Ogden to Tremonton and beyond. Also, as dunfree noted, 80-90% of the water is used by agriculture. Pan around many of those dark zones on Google Earth and look at how many irrigated fields are out there, even in complete BFE. The share of the population interested in being an alfalfa farmer is not increasing. As population pressure makes that land and associated water rights increasingly valuable the present farmers' kids and grandkids will be happy to cash in and never work again.

[simple]

I wish I could show you a map of where I'm part of an engineering team developing utility infrastructure and railways in Colorado. Sorry but I70 isn't going to get fixed like you feel it needs. You would see the growth that is coming and either puke or recognize you will be rich AF soon.

East coast is nearly fully built out. Rising sea levels are going to drive people inland. Real estate is not going to bust it is just going to move around. Progressive communities are planning for this and red-hat type idiots are gonna try to keep it away so they can keep their podunk lifestyle of fucking their cousins after repenting at church, blaming the brown people, or doing meth forever. Then again the progressives can't seem to understand that the massive red tape that they create only hamstrings the development they need. It might be that the government workforce is filled with 9 to 5 people with zero critical thinking or experience outside of their procedural routine.

As someone said before...stupid humans...

[Dantheman]

Progressive communities are planning for this and red-hat type idiots are gonna try to keep it away so they can keep their podunk lifestyle of fucking their cousins after repenting at church, blaming the brown people, or doing meth forever. Then again the progressives can't seem to understand that the massive red tape that they create only hamstrings the development they need.

It would be really nice if life in America wasn't a choice between two dystopias.

[lifelinksplit]

Lol...country folk wanting to keep progressive communities away so they keep being racist/ cousin fucking/ meth smoking/ church going peoples..

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[nickwm21]

Overlay that image with a map of topography, state and federal parks, forest service, tribal land, and cropland….


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[RootSkier]

Why cropland? We have been turning cropland into housing developments forever.

[ötzi]

East coast is nearly fully built out.

ha. Not even close. For example, Maine and South Korea are nearly the same size. South Korea has 51 million people and Maine has about 1. https://mapfight.xyz/map/kr/#us.me And South Korea still has farms and rural villages and mountains where nobody lives.

Or try Pennsylvania some time. Aside from the two ends, there's nobody there. Less people than there were in 1900 by far.

Not to mention the vast emptiness of the Upstates. etc etc

[dunfree]

Why cropland? We have been turning cropland into housing developments forever.

because ranching is a heavily subsidized, water wasting, unproductive hobby that’s politically powerful so we have to go after the useful users first.