Real Estate Crash thread

[Supermoon]

So...what does this say about the accuracy of the Zestimate? Are all their estimated sale prices inflated?

Zestimates are basically bullshit as far as I can tell.

[rideit]

Our Zestimate is a solid $600k less than it would sell for. And they have a 15 year old picture of the property up, when it was a slummy shithole.
We think it’s hilarious!

[Ted Striker]

The Zestimate for my house is 24.5% higher than the 'Restimate'

They can't both be right

[Conundrum]

The Zestimate for my house is 24.5% higher than the 'Restimate'

They can't both be right

They could both be wrong.

[Ted Striker]

I'm sure they are

[Name Redacted]

Without large numbers of sales/comps the Zestimate will always be highly inaccurate. Their algorithm is designed more for major metropolitan areas with a shit ton of turnover, not small to medium ski towns. Obviously it barely works in those MMAs too. That Zestimate algorithm also doesn’t know about that new garage you added on, new ceiling fans, new paint, remodeled kitchen, etc..

Our Zestimate was off by $169K from what we sold for.

[dunfree]

Their alogorithms suck in big cities too ski town broflake, as this thread has shown for years.

[VTeton]

I grabbed some Zillow shares at $69 today but half expect it to drop significantly more so I plan to buy more. It laughable that they think they can outsmart local grinders/flippers who use cheap labor and sweat equity.

[Toadman]

The Zestimate for my house is 24.5% higher than the 'Restimate'

They can't both be right

You maybe right, you maybe crazy.

[Kevo]

The thing that always drove me crazy about Zestimates was that they would do backwards looking changes.

E.g. in January of 2019 my Zestimate was X and in January of 2020 my Zestimate was Y, but the January 2020 graph would show that my Zestimate in Jan 2019 was Z and not X.

It seemed like Zillow was modifying their estimates retroactively to always show price appreciation, when in reality there were times when my Zestimate dropped as much as $80k YoY in the CO Front Range. The data showing the drop was obfuscated to make the line look flat or upward trending instead of showing the wild fluctuations that actually happened.

[Danno]

The thing that always drove me crazy about Zestimates was that they would do backwards looking changes.

E.g. in January of 2019 my Zestimate was X and in January of 2020 my Zestimate was Y, but the January 2020 graph would show that my Zestimate in Jan 2019 was Z and not X.

It seemed like Zillow was modifying their estimates retroactively to always show price appreciation, when in reality there were times when my Zestimate dropped as much as $80k YoY in the CO Front Range. The data showing the drop was obfuscated to make the line look flat or upward trending instead of showing the wild fluctuations that actually happened.

yeah, I noticed that too.

[Toadman]

I wonder if Redfin's home price estimate is any better. They always seemed to price very close to Zestimate or vice versa.

[RootSkier]

Current Zestimate for my house is 22% higher than a real appraisal from May 10. Seems legit.

[liv2ski]

All those automated estimates only work in large areas of similar track homes were the comps are many and the same.

[tgapp]

All those automated estimates only work in large areas of similar track homes were the comps are many and the same.

Not only that but different states apparently have different laws regarding the publication of actual sale price. In Utah sale price is private, so Zestimates are wildly inaccurate. I've spoken with multiple real estate professionals who have said that both buyers and sellers have made egregious mistakes by basing an offer or a sale price on the Zestimate alone and then using a service like Homie to purchase a home.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[dunfree]

All those automated estimates only work in large areas of similar track homes were the comps are many and the same.

And even in the metro areas best suited - fast growing sprawls of same shit like Phoenix and sandyego, it didn’t.

[4matic]

I could be wrong, I could be right
I could be black, I could be white
I could be right, I could be wrong
I could be white, I could be black
Your time has come your second skin
The cost so high the gain so low
Walk through the valley
The written word is a lie
May the road rise with you

[4matic]

I can’t see a path to recovery for Zillow following a failed strategy in an all time bull run. They already abandoned the original seller enabled model. If home sales just level off going forward where is the growth? Redfin is getting hammered too. There are a lot better discounts than Redfin on both sides if you look.

Zillow dropped below the right shoulder of a huge top on the long term chart.

[RootSkier]

Not only that but different states apparently have different laws regarding the publication of actual sale price.

That is also the case here. But accurate numbers are usually entered into the MLS, and that would seem like something Zillow likely has access to.

[Jax]

Breaking it down a bit further, good writeup IMO.

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/11/02/zi...unges-further/


"...To lose $1.42 billion by flipping houses in the hottest, most inflated, most liquid housing market ever takes a real genius.

The genius was of course the AI-powered well-oiled buying machine. It got to the point where everyone and their dog wanted to sell to Zillow. This AI-powered well-oiled buying machine – founded upon Zillow’s “inimitable living database of homes and superior data science and technology advantages” – was one of the three “competitive advantages” that Zillow showcased in its 2020 annual report.

Today, that AI-powered well-oiled buying machine got taken out the back and shot. It was today, November 2, that Zillow’s board decided to kill the thing, Zillow said.

It blamed the “wind down” of Zillow Offers on, in that order:

“Home pricing unpredictability
“Capacity constraints
“Other operational challenges
“An unprecedented housing market
“A global pandemic
“A difficult labor and supply chain environment.”
“We’ve determined the unpredictability in forecasting home prices far exceeds what we anticipated,” Zillow said, citing co-founder and CEO Rich Barton..

...Zillow said that the wind-down would take several quarters – and there are still thousands of houses to sell, and it’s pitching 7,000 of them to investors, as it emerged yesterday. And it will lay off 25% of its staff, and it will be done with this scheme, and go back to its money-losing roots, after having blown $1.4 billion on flipping houses, and after having done its best to inflate house prices further by overbidding for them. Now those pricing data points are going to reverse when it sells those houses at a lower price.

The bedraggled Class A shares [ZG] fell another 10.5% in afterhours trading, to $76.50, after having fallen 11.5% during regular trading hours on yesterday’s revelation that it was trying to dump 7,000 houses to investors and was underwater on much of its inventory, after having fallen 8% yesterday. They’re down 62% from the February 2021 high. The huge rally toward that high had been fueled by Wall Street hype about, you guessed it, Zillow’s home flipping prowess..."

[Bobcat Sig]

Breaking it down a bit further, good writeup IMO.

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/11/02/zi...unges-further/


"...To lose $1.42 billion by flipping houses in the hottest, most inflated, most liquid housing market ever takes a real genius.

The genius was of course the AI-powered well-oiled buying machine. It got to the point where everyone and their dog wanted to sell to Zillow. This AI-powered well-oiled buying machine – founded upon Zillow’s “inimitable living database of homes and superior data science and technology advantages” – was one of the three “competitive advantages” that Zillow showcased in its 2020 annual report.

Today, that AI-powered well-oiled buying machine got taken out the back and shot. It was today, November 2, that Zillow’s board decided to kill the thing, Zillow said.

It blamed the “wind down” of Zillow Offers on, in that order:

“Home pricing unpredictability
“Capacity constraints
“Other operational challenges
“An unprecedented housing market
“A global pandemic
“A difficult labor and supply chain environment.”
“We’ve determined the unpredictability in forecasting home prices far exceeds what we anticipated,” Zillow said, citing co-founder and CEO Rich Barton..

...Zillow said that the wind-down would take several quarters – and there are still thousands of houses to sell, and it’s pitching 7,000 of them to investors, as it emerged yesterday. And it will lay off 25% of its staff, and it will be done with this scheme, and go back to its money-losing roots, after having blown $1.4 billion on flipping houses, and after having done its best to inflate house prices further by overbidding for them. Now those pricing data points are going to reverse when it sells those houses at a lower price.

The bedraggled Class A shares [ZG] fell another 10.5% in afterhours trading, to $76.50, after having fallen 11.5% during regular trading hours on yesterday’s revelation that it was trying to dump 7,000 houses to investors and was underwater on much of its inventory, after having fallen 8% yesterday. They’re down 62% from the February 2021 high. The huge rally toward that high had been fueled by Wall Street hype about, you guessed it, Zillow’s home flipping prowess..."

Whooo! Man. Tough days ahead for Zillow. That's pretty damning and it smells of desperation by their CEO and board. While I'm very much that the majority of real estate and related entities have long been ripe for disruption, the idea of trying to commoditize the home-buying process isn't it.

[rideit]

Hoisted by their own petards, it would seem…

[stalefish3169]

Gee, I wonder what's going to happen when the fed has no choice but to turn hawkish to cool inflation.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

First-time Covid home buyers better hope snorkels and scuba gear are not affected by supply chain shortages. +++vibes+++

[dunfree]

Whooo! Man. Tough days ahead for Zillow. That's pretty damning and it smells of desperation by their CEO and board. While I'm very much that the majority of real estate and related entities have long been ripe for disruption, the idea of trying to commoditize the home-buying process isn't it.

To channel Matt Levine in this market if you aren’t betting big on a money losing memeable business are you really doing your fiduciary duty?

[Benny Profane]

You wonder how many other firms are underwater on homes. Like the so called geniuses in PE that the financial press tells us can do know wrong. And how about the financing?