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  1. #16551
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoooR View Post
    Or self driving / electric car era. Is it possible we'll have some sort of protected lane on the freeways of the future where the cars draft each other and go super fast? I have no skin in this game besides wanting to be able to nap on longer trips.
    Trains for regional/inter-regional travel, self-driving electric cars for local travel. It'll be a transportation Utopia!

  2. #16552
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    lots of talk for vapor ware that’s a decade plus out from dependable mass service

    funny as fuck watching the same people who 5-10 years ago talked about the same tech utopia future acting like it’s here now. Self driving? E vehicles? That shit was gonna dominate today!

  3. #16553
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    lots of talk for vapor ware that’s a decade plus out from dependable mass service

    funny as fuck watching the same people who 5-10 years ago talked about the same tech utopia future acting like it’s here now. Self driving? E vehicles? That shit was gonna dominate today!
    You're not wrong.


  4. #16554
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    Utah town is out of water so imposed a moratorium on new homebuilding: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/u...te-change.html

    “Why are we building houses if we don’t have enough water?” said Wade Woolstenhulme, the mayor, who in addition to raising horses and judging rodeos, has spent the past few weeks defending the building moratorium. “The right thing to do to protect people who are already here is to restrict people coming in.”

  5. #16555
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    lots of talk for vapor ware that’s a decade plus out from dependable mass service

    funny as fuck watching the same people who 5-10 years ago talked about the same tech utopia future acting like it’s here now. Self driving? E vehicles? That shit was gonna dominate today!
    Takes time man. Shit is getting better. Lots of people have cars that basically drive themselves in "easy" situations. Plus it has to be WAY better to be accepted. People accept 40k deaths on the highways a year now. Self driving will almost need to be flawless.

    One downside (or upside) of self driving will be that since a self driving car will not let itself hit a pedestrian or cyclist it won't be long until the people figure out they can pretty much walk / ride wherever they want. City streets are gonna be crazy!

  6. #16556
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoooR View Post
    One downside (or upside) of self driving will be that since a self driving car will not let itself hit a pedestrian or cyclist it won't be long until the people figure out they can pretty much walk / ride wherever they want. City streets are gonna be crazy!
    I don't know, maybe. Sawstop table saws will stop automatically before cutting your skin, but it takes a lot of huevos to jam your hand in one. I would not be willing to run out in front of a self-driving car even if I had seen demonstrations of them working well. I've talked to some people working in this area though and one thing they're worried about is malicious attacks -- how much spray paint is needed to make a car no longer recognize a stop sign? Solving problems like that might be harder than pedestrians being jerks.

  7. #16557
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    Quote Originally Posted by dan_pdx View Post
    Utah town is out of water so imposed a moratorium on new homebuilding: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/u...te-change.html

    “Why are we building houses if we don’t have enough water?” said Wade Woolstenhulme, the mayor, who in addition to raising horses and judging rodeos, has spent the past few weeks defending the building moratorium. “The right thing to do to protect people who are already here is to restrict people coming in.”
    I wonder the same thing as I watch 450 - 1,500 housing units being approved for construction here in Bend.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  8. #16558
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    sad thing is there was a kickass train car diner there in oakley that just had to shut down cause they couldnt staff it
    if the heavenly father dont deliver
    the good ole boys may need take another decade to change their human caused climate change beliefs and address it
    or just drill deeper baby
    "When the child was a child it waited patiently for the first snow and it still does"- Van "The Man" Morrison
    "I find I have already had my reward, in the doing of the thing" - Buzz Holmstrom
    "THIS IS WHAT WE DO"-AML -ski on in eternal peace
    "I have posted in here but haven't read it carefully with my trusty PoliAsshat antenna on."-DipshitDanno

  9. #16559
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    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    I don't know who is comparing theoretical rail in the U.S. to actual rail in Japan... it sure isn't me.


    This is all a bunch of bullshit. All it would take is the national WILL to do it and commitment. Instead of spending 3/4 of a trillion dollars every year on the military industrial complex, spend it on *actual* functional infrastructure that would help the nation.

    Throwing our hands up never got us anywhere.
    The real issue? Our "need it now" society. Nobody wants to take a train. Takes too fucking long..

    Improving city and immediate suburbs to cities, train access, as well as some "corridor" improvements would go a long way though. Anything spanning the nation is a waste anymore. We have rails that criss cross the nation, very few choose to use them.

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  10. #16560
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skidog View Post
    The real issue? Our "need it now" society. Nobody wants to take a train. Takes too fucking long..

    Improving city and immediate suburbs to cities, train access, as well as some "corridor" improvements would go a long way though. Anything spanning the nation is a waste anymore. We have rails that criss cross the nation, very few choose to use them.
    The current passenger rail system in the U.S. is basically non-functional. Mainly due to our decision to subsidize the automobile. We *could* have a functional train system, and I think long-term it would still be a good idea.

  11. #16561
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    There is also speculation that not having to pay rent, delayed mortgage and car payments, student loan payments and interest at zero for 14mo, stimulus money, and COVID unemployment federal and state bonuses means that many unemployed/underemployed people can live close enough to their pre-COVID working comfort that the gain from returning to work at prevailing wages is not worth the sacrifice.

    When the COVID unemployment ends, evictions start, and loan payments are due, many people will go back to work.
    While it is super clear the Reuters author doesn't like the idea of cutting the Federal $1200/mo COVID unemployment bonus, it is also clear that:

    "State-level jobs data released earlier this month show that in the 26 states stopping (Federal extra unemployment) benefits early an additional 174,000 people joined the labor force in June, by either taking jobs or beginning work searches, compared to 47,000 in the other states."

    Others will have expiring unemployment and owe various monthly payments soon (or else)...
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  12. #16562
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    "State-level jobs data released earlier this month show that in the 26 states stopping (Federal extra unemployment) benefits early an additional 174,000 people joined the labor force in June, by either taking jobs or beginning work searches, compared to 47,000 in the other states."

    Others will have expiring unemployment and owe various monthly payments soon (or else)...
    I would have liked if they offered people a declining % of the amount of unemployment they had left the longer it took for them to take the job. So like get a job now you get a bonus of 100% of what you had left. Take a job in a month and maybe you get 75%. But I'm a carrot over stick person in general so...

  13. #16563
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    While it is super clear the Reuters author doesn't like the idea of cutting the Federal $1200/mo COVID unemployment bonus, it is also clear that:

    "State-level jobs data released earlier this month show that in the 26 states stopping (Federal extra unemployment) benefits early an additional 174,000 people joined the labor force in June, by either taking jobs or beginning work searches, compared to 47,000 in the other states."

    Others will have expiring unemployment and owe various monthly payments soon (or else)...
    To answer my earlier question to you, the labor force participation rate is still below pre-pandemic levels at about 2 percent below Dec 2019 levels. So while unemployment and other benefits is probably impacting who is accepting or looking for work it seems like there is a pretty sizable portion of the workforce that has just left the court entirely.

  14. #16564
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    Quote Originally Posted by dan_pdx View Post
    Chinese people I spoke with said they actually have very strong property rights in China, it's just that the Chinese government owns all the land
    Yeah, bottom line, everyone rents.

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  15. #16565
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  16. #16566
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    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Which, in hindsight, was probably a mistake, eh? So what do we do? Just keep throwing money at auto infrastructure? Or accept that it was a mistake and move in a different direction?

    Those questions are all rhetorical, for the record...
    Actually the mistake was letting the oligarchy of railroads opt out of passenger service.

  17. #16567
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoooR View Post
    I would have liked if they offered people a declining % of the amount of unemployment they had left the longer it took for them to take the job. So like get a job now you get a bonus of 100% of what you had left. Take a job in a month and maybe you get 75%. But I'm a carrot over stick person in general so...
    I like this

    Quote Originally Posted by old_newguy View Post
    To answer my earlier question to you, the labor force participation rate is still below pre-pandemic levels at about 2 percent below Dec 2019 levels. So while unemployment and other benefits is probably impacting who is accepting or looking for work it seems like there is a pretty sizable portion of the workforce that has just left the court entirely.
    Yes

    Perhaps the labor force participation improves when people have to pay rent and loans....

    Quote Originally Posted by Meadow Skipper View Post
    Youtube of some budget Bernie Sanders ranting
    That's fucking hilarious. "Taking away extra unemployment benefits is FORCED LABOR!" That guy can be as OUTRAGED and emotive as he wants, but his claim is the same as the Republicans, that in a "labor shortage" business wages necessarily compete with unemployment, but while the solution of 26 states was "cut the extra unemployment from when there was a job shortage," this guy says taxpayers should somehow force higher wages from businesses by keeping unemployment benefits elevated, anything less is slavery?

    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  18. #16568
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoooR View Post
    Takes time man.

    that’s my point. In the us new cars are ~5% of the cars on the road, average age is 12 years. It’s still a long way out. There’s this bullshit tech utopia thinking that utterly ignores the huge number of cars out there, and what people actually do with them. And while ADAS are improving, they are still a ways out for designing transport infrastructure around.

    the future of transport isn’t cars. It might not be shared transport, but it ain’t cars.

  19. #16569
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    While it is super clear the Reuters author doesn't like the idea of cutting the Federal $1200/mo COVID unemployment bonus, it is also clear that:

    "State-level jobs data released earlier this month show that in the 26 states stopping (Federal extra unemployment) benefits early an additional 174,000 people joined the labor force in June, by either taking jobs or beginning work searches, compared to 47,000 in the other states."

    Others will have expiring unemployment and owe various monthly payments soon (or else)...
    people on unemployment ​are in the fucking labor force by definition, dumbass. They just aren’t employed.

    such fucking brain rot.

  20. #16570
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    $375K increase this past month on the house I'm renting, according to zillow. My rent has not increased in the 3 years I've lived here. Reasonable rent, too. Hoping to buy the next dip, if there is one. I'll still likely overpay, but, it's taken me this long to get back on my feet after numerous hardships. It is what it is. Thankful to be able to stash away at a down payment in times like these.

  21. #16571
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    Quote Originally Posted by dan_pdx View Post
    Eh, why pay it off if you have 7 figures compounding in the market and a mortgage interest rate in the 2.5 - 4% range (depending on when they last refinanced)? Sure, there's security in having a paid off mortgage, but unless you have a crystal ball to predict a market crash, it doesn't pencil out.
    At 2.99% here and can't come up w a good reason to pay it off. Could pay it off today.

    Sent from my SM-G998U1 using Tapatalk

  22. #16572
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    Quote Originally Posted by MontuckyFried View Post
    Lol @ $2750/student. If only it were that cheap and simple. How about annual operating budgets on top of that. Remodels. Tech overhauls. Wife's school district spent MILLIONS rolling out these nice Smartboards (as opposed to the chalkboards and white boards we all had growing up). They pair with the teachers' computers, projectors, and software, so NOT cheap. Literally as soon as the last ones went into the classrooms and teachers were all trained up on them, the school district did some huge multi-million dollar contract to replace them with the latest and greatest effective immediately. Teachers weren't stoked. Just another example of very typical govt spending.

    And perhaps you missed the part where I mentioned that other proposals existed. I did not say "Don't build a new school." I simply wanted everyone to take a serious look at all of the possibilities and give the others a fair shake. You also don't know the details, but let's just say the millionaires/billionaires you mention are who were PRECISELY behind everything. It was one big circle jerk with all the richest people calling all the shots and making sure they get their own pockets lined. Nothing new, though. Tale as old as time. Just an easy example. It's across the board from little municipalities to the Feds.
    $2750 a student is just math for the facility cost, for the most expensive school in the entire USA. So your school is far less. Of course there are more costs than that but that isn’t the point. The point is that you are all up in arms about education spending and how “wasteful” it is, yet even the most expensive school is a small amount per year per student.

    If what you say is true, and I’m highly skeptical, then it sounds like you lived in one of the richest school districts in America. The most expensive price installed I could find for a smart board is $7,000. Meaning you could equip 142 classrooms for $1m at the highest price. So if they spent MILLIONS they were equipping HUNDREDS of classrooms. And there’s only about 600 billionaires in the US so I’m pretty skeptical that you had a bunch of them in your school. Usually billionaires send their kids to private schools and few have companies that would significantly benefit from school building. So I’d love to know how all these billionaires were involved in the process and just how they were getting their pockets lined.

    Also, as further evidence of your bullshit, the US spends an average of $12k per year per student. So the exorbitant spending you claim to have seen is definitely not typical of government run schools. You want to see some real waste go look at the operating budgets of private schools around the country.

  23. #16573
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    Breckenridge, Vail and Steamboat have placed or are considering STR moratoriums on new licenses unless the property is specifically built for STR (has a front desk, property mgr, is a time share, etc). Will it work to get owners to convert STRs to LTRs?

    Let's look at the type of second home owners:

    A type of owner will not convert to LTR: SECOND HOME USER
    "I use that unit intermittently, so I am never long terming. So I'll use it more often like I did during the pandemic, and I'll spend less and you'll have less town revenue."

    B type of owner will not convert to LTR: SECOND HOME USER
    "I bought the place to use for myself, but I need the STR income to afford it, so I'll just sell the unit to" A type above.

    C type of owner will not convert to LTR: INVESTOR
    "Well, I bought it to STR, so I might as well sell at peak prices to" A type above.

    D type of owner who WILL convert to LTR: INVESTOR
    "I was looking for that 10% STR net annual return. I guess I'll just take a 0-3% annual net to rent to a local instead of selling the place because maybe I want the investment/future primary."

    And here are the reactions of local owners:
    E type of owner who will not convert to LTR:
    "I live here full time and I don't want a full time roommate, but it was going to be nice having a little extra income from occasional STRing the extra bedroom... dang... less money to spend in the community."

    F type of owner who WILL convert to LTR or who will NOT purchase property or WILL purchase a smaller place:
    "I live here full time and I was going to make the mortgage by STRing the extra bedroom a few peak weekends a year, but now I guess I will have to have a roommate or buy a smaller place that cannot fit my future family."

    I think you harm a lot of people, cut out a ton of revenue, and end up creating very few additional LTRs. It might lower real estate prices some in the long term but there would be a lot of sales short term as people downsize. As usual, the RE industry wins.
    A rush of STRs hitting the market will drive down prices in theory, so maybe some locals could actually buy a home? Not sure how that math pencils out in the short term, but long term not having a bunch of housing turned into hotels has to help the affordability

  24. #16574
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    yeah, I totally didn’t get your super smart, super subtle, “the US consumer is happy cuz the fed prints shit so people can buy imported crap from Chyna” take given your posts, I’m not surprised you couldn’t understand my point. Germans thinking themselves smart by selling shit to China, fucking over their own consumers, is part of the problem. Politics in Europe and China fuck over their own consumers to subsidize the US, but we’re the stupid ones
    Oh i get our problems more than you can ever know. And I'm actually concerned about China buying "our" robot manufacturers, Greek ports and Hungarian infrastructure. ( don't get me started on the politics there).


    I just couldn't understand your whataboutism totally not addressing anything in my post and your "response" comes down to Germany dumb America smaaht? Arguing with you can be really tiring. i get why the others stick to insulting you.

    More ironic since my post was actually some sort of envy because the others can't get away with the printing solution?

    So "we" focus on a rather unhealthy high tech machine and car export surplus (not unhealthy per se from a purely German point of view, but unhealthy because it leads to problems I the Euro zone because the others can't compete with our productivity and can't devalue their currency).
    It's a war of the mind and we're armed to the teeth.

  25. #16575
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    Underinvestment in Germany is unhealthy for Germans….. but telling a smug German that is like convincing them spending millions or billions on some shitty foreign Corp (Chrysler, lol) is a bad economic move, they always know better.

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