Real Estate Crash thread

[Benny Profane]

https://www.tetonvalleynews.net/news...23efa7918.html

"When the pandemic hit, a large number of visas were taken off the table, leading to MD and Kruisman looking for a larger number of younger workers to fill the shoes. Unfortunately, they were not as skilled as the visa workers, which led to high turnover.

“We hired quite a few college students, out of the 60 we hired 55 were utter disappointments,” said Kruisman. “Some didn’t even last a day.”

“A lot of the young people just don’t want to come to work,” he added."

That's awesome.

[skaredshtles]

<snip>
“A lot of the young people just don’t want to come to work,” he added."

A lot of the older people just don't want to go to work, either.

[4matic]

Lumber down limit again. Well below the September 2020 high.

[sirbumpsalot]

Phone calls to Ukraine?

Anyhoo, I am pretty skeptical that I'll be able to find a pretty affordable month to two month rental near a good western mountain after this absurd price hike for almost anything, It's not as though it was cheap and easy beforehand, but, this is getting ridiculous, when something like Harry's one bedroom his a near million dollar sale mark just a decade after the supposed housing crash. Then you look at Driggs, which, just a few years ago, was affordable to mere mortals, and now anything there seems to be hitting seven figures. I know it's been said a million times, but, where the fuck is the workforce for all of these ski hills going to live? And how the fuck can even upper middle class skiers afford the sport?

Middle class skiers buy cheap epic passes....

[old_newguy]

https://www.tetonvalleynews.net/news...23efa7918.html

Take away:

1- Notably absent was any mention of wages being paid.

2- No mention of training new staff, just “they all suck”.

3- They just want to import H2-A visa workers.

[Benny Profane]

Middle class skiers buy cheap epic passes....

But where do they sleep?

Here, this just popped up on Facebook for Summit County:

Apartment for rent, two bedroom, one bath. $2595 a month.

We have an apartment available on the lower level of our house in Dillon. Amazing location!
Beautiful views of Lake Dillon and Buffalo Mountain. parking space provided on driveway Hike from our backyard, bike across the street and kayak entrance points just minutes away!

We provide a storage shed and outdoor patio, at least one parking space …

Requirements:
Credit score of 680 minimum
Salary 3x rent
No dogs
No smoking

Stainless appliances, granite countertops, newly tiled shower. [Of course!]


So, yeah, somebody expects somebody making 3x2595 a month to rent this place. That's nearly a hundred grand a year. And, with pretty damn good credit, too. What the fuck. You have to think, are the kids "owning" this house, who obviously expect some pretty well off tenant to come along and pay for their overpriced mortgage, that naive? I mean, I understand that rent for seasonal short term, but, permanent annual rent?

[Supermoon]

Take away:

1- Notably absent was any mention of wages being paid.

2- No mention of training new staff, just “they all suck”.

3- They just want to import H2-A visa workers.

Yeah. If 55 of 60 people you hire don’t work out, that’s on you.

[Timberridge]

https://www.tetonvalleynews.net/news...23efa7918.html

Tatanka Tavern? Cute. Do you also have a Bison Bistro and Puma Pub there?

[Hopeless Sinner]

Yeah. If 55 of 60 people you hire don’t work out, that’s on you.

It indicates a disparity in describing the job, location, and/or living conditions and cost and the pay. The poor and desperate (h2-A workers, illegals) are what's making the rich richer and the poor, even poorer.

[RootSkier]

And how the fuck can even upper middle class skiers afford the sport?

Skiing is not that expensive if you live near it and get season passes. We are 25 minutes from a hill with 2600' vert and passes for the whole family = $1500. In an average year we spend approximately $300 on lodging and about the same for lift tickets during one weekend. Otherwise we are skiing at home. I'll also usually spend another $120 on two days at other areas that are easy day trips.

That said, we probably couldn't afford a house here at this point if we didn't already have one.

[Benny Profane]

Why does everyone consider foreign workers "poor and desperate"? What the fuck? Maybe the Aussies just want to ski during their summer?

You're showing your white privilege biases with that one, and that's why a lot of these people are treated so poorly. You think they are "poor and desperate" losers. Maybe that's why the white kids suck at the job. It's only for losers. They're better than that.

[BmillsSkier]

Tatanka Tavern? Cute. Do you also have a Bison Bistro and Puma Pub there?

[Benny Profane]

Skiing is not that expensive if you live near it and get season passes. We are 25 minutes from a hill with 2600' vert and passes for the whole family = $1500. In an average year we spend approximately $300 on lodging and about the same for lift tickets during one weekend. Otherwise we are skiing at home.

That said, we probably couldn't afford a house here at this point if we didn't already have one.

Well, yeah, I'm with you on that one. It's very affordable if you bought a house in 1994. Not now.

Coulda wooda. A western condo looked like a total luxury when I was working, but, only to go back in time and consider it retirement savings. Which it would have been.

[Dantheman]

Yeah. If 55 of 60 people you hire don’t work out, that’s on you.

On the one hand, this is not a new thing. Twenty years ago in college I worked on a landscaping crew for a few summers. Not mowing lawns and trimming hedges, most jobs were full new landscape installs jackhammering waterline trenches into clay, hauling wheelbarrows full of gravel all day, etc. On the first day the boss told me and the other college kid he had hired "Good luck, the white boys usually don't last a week." Maybe he was just fucking with us by trying to light a fire under our asses, but I doubt it, he didn't seem like the type.

On the other hand, the part Benny didn't quote was where the guy said his crews were clocking back in after dinner and working until god knows when. At the aforementioned landscaping job we worked 7:00-3:30 and called it a day. I'm pretty sure that even the Latino lifers on his crew would have quit if they were expected to put in 16-hours days.

[Toadman]

Then you look at Driggs, which, just a few years ago, was affordable to mere mortals, and now anything there seems to be hitting seven figures. I know it's been said a million times, but, where the fuck is the workforce for all of these ski hills going to live? And how the fuck can even upper middle class skiers afford the sport?

Workforce will probably live in a garage with 12 people renting out . Each paying about $200-$250 per month. No heat, Coleman stove. Frozen Porta Potty out back. The upper middle class will be forced to make choices. Do they keep the sports car or fund the kids college. Or do they just say, " screw it kids, you're on your own", and the parents go skiing.

[Hopeless Sinner]

Why does everyone consider foreign workers "poor and desperate"? What the fuck? Maybe the Aussies just want to ski during their summer?

You're showing your white privilege biases with that one, and that's why a lot of these people are treated so poorly. You think they are "poor and desperate" losers. Maybe that's why the white kids suck at the job. It's only for losers. They're better than that.

Just like when I walked off a tree planting job after 2 days. Fuck that! I took my white male privilege and Got TFO. Probably had a net worth of $100 at the time.


I wasn't desperate enough to continue although no better option was available immediately. I soon found an actual paying job that didn't require 10 hrs a day in a pouring rain of pounding a hoedad into the rocks around Flathead Lake MT, sleeping in a tent, and eating out of a cooler. The remainder of the crew were illegals that were desperate.

[Toadman]

Lumber down limit again. Well below the September 2020 high.

Yep, LBS=F finally closed below $1k per thousand feet random length lumber earlier this week. Below $900 ATM. Thinking it might hold steady in the $800's for the rest of the summer.

[skaredshtles]

<snip> " screw it kids, you're on your own", and the parents go skiing.

This.

[Benny Profane]

Just like when I walked off a tree planting job after 2 days. Fuck that! I took my white male privilege and Got TFO. Probably had a net worth of $100 at the time.


I wasn't desperate enough to continue although no better option was available immediately. I soon found an actual paying job that didn't require 10 hrs a day in a pouring rain of pounding a hoedad into the rocks around Flathead Lake MT, sleeping in a tent, and eating out of a cooler. The remainder of the crew were illegals that were desperate.

Pussy.

But really, liftie, slinging burgers, and waiting on tables ain't that.

[XXX-er]

Just like when I walked off a tree planting job after 2 days. Fuck that! I took my white male privilege and Got TFO. Probably had a net worth of $100 at the time.


I wasn't desperate enough to continue although no better option was available immediately. I soon found an actual paying job that didn't require 10 hrs a day in a pouring rain of pounding a hoedad into the rocks around Flathead Lake MT, sleeping in a tent, and eating out of a cooler. The remainder of the crew were illegals that were desperate.

tree planting or firefighting is the time honored way to make > the minimum wage money up here, both are pretty tough gigs the crews I see come into the craft brew are not illegals, often uni students, some planters have been doing in for a long time & consider it a career of sorts

,

[Buster Highmen]

I did the tree planting thing for 2 summers in the 70s, but that was when tuition and rent were possible to pay with those jobs. No illegals in our crummies, but lots of derelicts.

[Hopeless Sinner]

Pussy.

But really, liftie, slinging burgers, and waiting on tables ain't that.

Everyone has choices to make. Where are you skiing this winter?

[Hopeless Sinner]

tree planting or firefighting is the time honored way to make > the minimum wage money up here, both are pretty tough gigs the crews I see come into the craft brew are not illegals, often uni students, some planters have been doing in for a long time & consider it a career of sorts

,

This was 1980, illegals were prob easier to use then, than they are now. I had many FS/BLM jobs after that, including managing tree planting contracts. I was prob a little more lenient than others w/out the experience of those 2 days.

[Benny Profane]

Everyone has choices to make. Where are you skiing this winter?

Vermont, Colorado, and Italy

[4matic]

Yep, LBS=F finally closed below $1k per thousand feet random length lumber earlier this week. Below $900 ATM. Thinking it might hold steady in the $800's for the rest of the summer.

Came off limit. Lumber futures have always been thin so I’m not sure they really represent true pricing. Probably marginal price.