Real Estate Crash thread

**Benny Profane** · 08-25-2006, 06:10 PM

Originally Posted by gr8fldoug

What I want to know, in simplistic terms , is whywhen the housing markets "cool" bringing prices down to where schleps like myself can actually afford a house, do interest rates go up? Therefor making it more difficult to afford payments? Is there a simple answer, one not tied to macro/ micro economics, dollar values, the whim of a reserve chief, or the wind direction on tuesday?
It just seems logical to me that when housing prices come down to where average joe's can afford them, then the federal reserve should be helping by keeping interest rates lower. Maybe I just answered my own question. If it's logical than the government wouldn't do it!

well, the simplest answer I can give is when I was buying in the last great crash around '94, and I offered 25% below the already depressed asking price, and the guy seemed happy and relieved and bit, well, timing is everything.

**Baaahb** · 08-25-2006, 06:25 PM

Chicken and egg. A big part of the cooling is due to the rise in interest rates.

**Benny Profane** · 08-26-2006, 08:16 AM

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/bu...HWuWr3ybZ2Qk8g

**SkiingBear** · 08-26-2006, 11:49 AM

Originally Posted by ski_trader

Don't know much about the economics of the SLC area, but you are definitely swimming upstream. The days of easy money and 17% gains since the start of the year are over. Spend some time poring over homebuilder earnings reports and general real estate data. When making money is this easy it doesn't last. Real estate markets rarely crash in nasdaq-uean fashion, you'll just watch homes linger on the market much longer and have flattish or slowly declining values, depending on the local conditions of the market.

I'm doubting that SLC will be slowing down anytime soon...if at all. You have to consider the rate at which the population here is increasing, and then combine that with the prediction that the Salt Lake Valley will be full (from an available land perspective) by 2015. Yeah, that's 9 years away, but I still see a lot of open space here. To think that all of that is going to fill up that quickly...there's obviously a legitimate demand for houses. Personally, we've seen close to a 20% increase in the value of our home that we purchased last fall...and prices in our neighborhood continue to rise.

I'm not really into the whole RE game of trying to flip houses and get ahead. I'm just happy to have a house in a desirable neighborhood with a view of the Snowbird tram out my front window.

**pointedem** · 08-26-2006, 01:32 PM

SLC is decreasing simply due to outside influences right now.

Truth, not myth.

**Core Shot** · 08-27-2006, 02:47 AM

Originally Posted by cj001f

People who weren't invested from 90-95 spraying about real estate? Idiots.

Yup.
Got real ugly there for a while.

If you really wanna be a doom and gloom panic guy, you can have fun here:
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/

Personally, I'm thinking (hoping) that 5-15% price corrections is all we'll see.
That would actually be healthy.
More than that (ie, complete loss of consumer confidence and a complete tanking of the market and massive foreclosures) and we may be really screwed for a really long time.

PS- the NAR even admits things are fucked:
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/...%202006%29.ppt

PPS - but that slideshow does show Alaska and SLC still going strong.

**rideit** · 08-27-2006, 12:35 PM

we got a thirty year fixed here at 4.2%, with 1/3 cash down. Value has gone up 40% in three years, we did well, and were lucky. No bust here in Teton Valley yet, but things here are NUTS, we could use some cooling off. The high end spec developments are still charging ahead based on plans formulated a few years ago, the new target market is second, third and fourth homes for the uber-wealthy, and I simply don't think they are as affected by this current bubble....unless, of course, their relative wealth is tied in to RE holdings in more vulnerable markets.

**meatdrink9** · 08-27-2006, 03:50 PM

Originally Posted by Core Shot

PPS - but that slideshow does show Alaska and SLC still going strong.

I just did some research last night on my old neighborhood in Denver and things are going ape shit. I was considering selling a property or two there to finance some other investments out this way, but not a chance. Even if some cities are slowing down (Denver) you can still find pockets that will continue to thrive.

I think SLC as a whole has got at least another solid year or two of gains and if you hit specific areas on the Wasatch front I bet you've got 3 - 5 more years. When you compare home prices here to anywhere else it just seems like such a steal and it is. It won't be long before we start to catch up with the rest of west (already happening).

**slippy** · 08-27-2006, 03:52 PM

Let's pretend I know very little about RE investing. Because I don't. I'm in a weird fucking market here in JH that I'm a little unsure about.

I'll start out here: A friend got a house that he lives in, in Wilson actually, appraised for 2.4 million. It's 3 acres with a double-wide on it. The only person who would by this, I presume, would tear the double-wide down and build a mansion. But it's right in town with a lot of teeny-small houses all around it. if I was going to spend all that money, I wouldn't ever-never build no mansion theere. It would be out of place (although it's a good location if you are a ski bum). Lots of these small houses with a 1/2 acre (?) are worth 900,000.

There isn't much room to grow in this valley, if any at all. It's almost maxed out, I think. But these prices are stupid. Who would spend almost a million on a teeny cabin with no backyard? I think these houses are over valued and will drop because of this, but what do I know? The Rev was mentioning how RE was dropping in Sun Valley quite a bit, so maybe it could happen here too.

I talked to a RE agent in SLC recently. He came up here and was blown away. I said this might be the next Telluride and Aspen, so the prices here might be justified. He said no, because while you might need $5 million to buy something in Telluride, their houses are a lot bigger and nicer for that money. But then he recommended buying anything while I could around here.

As for where RideIt lives, on the other side of the pass, I see a big valley that can grow and grow and grow. The prices there are getting kinda high too, but they might flatten out because there's tons of dirt that hasn't been developed, and when it is there will be an over-saturated market. I'm thinking of buying something on that side and flipping it, similar to what MD9 is doing in SLC. But I wish it was SLC. (I can't afford anything in JH.) I'd hate to buy something and have it cool off in an instant. I don't want to hold on to anything for 5, 10 years and wait for it to go up.

Any thoughts? I've come to these conclusions with little input and I'm wondering if I'm way off-base. I'm thinking of waiting for a cool-off and then look for some bargains. But I don't want to miss the boat, either.

**slippy** · 08-27-2006, 03:53 PM

Originally Posted by meatdrink9

When you compare home prices here to anywhere else it just seems like such a steal and it is.

No doubt!

**Benny Profane** · 08-27-2006, 06:29 PM

Iraq is dooming the Republicans (and some incumbents) for this election, and the continuing real estate quagmire will force a big house cleaning in '08.
"whatdayamean I can't use equity in my home to by a big screen TV and a Range Rover and a 2 week trip to Vail this year. bwaaahhhhhhh"

**meatdrink9** · 08-27-2006, 08:03 PM

Originally Posted by slippy

Any thoughts? I've come to these conclusions with little input and I'm wondering if I'm way off-base. I'm thinking of waiting for a cool-off and then look for some bargains. But I don't want to miss the boat, either.

You don't have to be there to buy there. If you don't like the market you're in find a way to buy in a market you like. Lord knows you've got plenty of SLC contacts and friends. Not to mention the numerous trips you'll probably make here throughout the year (all become write-offs). Not a bad idea for any ski bum wanting to get to UT a fair amount. Do it all tax free.

**Cono Este** · 08-27-2006, 08:18 PM

Originally Posted by meatdrink9

You don't have to be there to buy there. If you don't like the market you're in find a way to buy in a market you like. Lord knows you've got plenty of SLC contacts and friends. Not to mention the numerous trips you'll probably make here throughout the year (all become write-offs). Not a bad idea for any ski bum wanting to get to UT a fair amount. Do it all tax free.

This is a great idea. I'll convert the garage and decorate it like a Super 8 motel room for myself.

**shmerham** · 08-27-2006, 09:53 PM

Out of curiousity, have there been any studies done, to see who, over the years has been in the best situation in terms of salary, house prices, and interest rates?

I feel like my parents' generation was better off: their salaries were 1/3 to 1/2 and interest rates were sky high, but house prices were 1/10th of what they are today.

The simple answer to this question is probably people who got jobs around 97-98 and were able to buy within the next year or two.

**Benny Profane** · 08-28-2006, 05:38 PM

The returning soldiers immediatly post WW2 (they had the GI bill, too), and this most recent boom. Don't see mortgage rates in the 5s with such a healthy economy much.

**LeeLau** · 08-28-2006, 05:55 PM

Originally Posted by cj001f

People who weren't invested from 90-95 spraying about real estate? Idiots.

If the internet was more popular in the late 80s/early 90s I bet you could find some msg board where there people saying that they could never lose on RE. I searched Usenet quickly - nothing there.

**slippy** · 08-28-2006, 06:09 PM

Originally Posted by meatdrink9

You don't have to be there to buy there. If you don't like the market you're in find a way to buy in a market you like. Lord knows you've got plenty of SLC contacts and friends. Not to mention the numerous trips you'll probably make here throughout the year (all become write-offs). Not a bad idea for any ski bum wanting to get to UT a fair amount. Do it all tax free.

True, but I was hoping to buy a dumpy house and fix it up. So I'd have to be living near it.

But maybe buying a semi-decent house in SLC, that only needs a lil' work would be easier. I already thought of buying in Bozeman because I didn't like the JH market, but SLC is way cheaper, and almost the same distance. Good thinking, MD9.

**Benny Profane** · 08-28-2006, 06:23 PM

Originally Posted by LeeLau

If the internet was more popular in the late 80s/early 90s I bet you could find some msg board where there people saying that they could never lose on RE. I searched Usenet quickly - nothing there.

It was THE topic of conversation at parties and backyard barbecues. You may remember those - that's when people got together in a defined space, shared drink and food, and conversed while looking each other in the eye. Or trying to, if the person on the other side had nice breasts.

**Benny Profane** · 08-29-2006, 07:12 AM

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/27/we...970&ei=5087%0A

**ill-advised strategy** · 08-29-2006, 07:30 AM

so I should refinance my arm?

d'oh.

I hate this shit so much.

So very very much.

**ill-advised strategy** · 08-29-2006, 07:32 AM

Originally Posted by slippy

True, but I was hoping to buy a dumpy house and fix it up. So I'd have to be living near it.

But maybe buying a semi-decent house in SLC, that only needs a lil' work would be easier. I already thought of buying in Bozeman because I didn't like the JH market, but SLC is way cheaper, and almost the same distance. Good thinking, MD9.

money plan: buy 2 or 3 bedroom house. Rent house to Maggots who save 1 of the bedrooms for your fanny heat when it's in town.

**Benny Profane** · 09-09-2006, 11:16 AM

Immigration haters - this is why the Bronx stopped burning:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/10/re...ef=keymagazine

**P_McPoser** · 09-09-2006, 04:38 PM

Still enjoying a little boom out here in BFE tied to the price of gold. Just had my house appraised today for a home equity loan to stick it to my credit card company.....house went from purchase price of 95,000 (appraisal value) in Feb 2005 to 138,000 as of yesterday! W00t! Definately not super huge gain, but FKNA 43k in almost 2 years is fine with me.

**hev** · 09-09-2006, 05:37 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

we got a thirty year fixed here at 4.2%.

..damn good rate! I somehow got 4.25 with 20% down and minimal credit but unfortunately I adjust in 2 years. It looks like I'll have outgrown my condo by then and a little sweat equity should help my resale be at least level cus things are definatly down in my area. It seems like trying to seriously time the market with your main residence is pretty risky and difficult.