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  1. #14951
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    Mar 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    That is sad.
    “I’m a subhuman jizz monkey”

    Thx mods. It’s an awesome signature.

  2. #14952
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    That is sad.

    I take it you mean the lack of context is sad, right?
    The truth doesn't care about your feelings.

  3. #14953
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    Oct 2002
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    We’ve put in an offer on a house. It feels like it’s a pretty strong offer, but I guess we’ll see. I’ve about rationalized myself to the conclusion that even if this is a bubble, it’s very likely it isn’t mitigating for a couple years which doesn’t work for me, and chances are excellent that prices just plateau rather than actually decline.

    I dunno. Fingers crossed, though.
    focus.

  4. #14954
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    Oct 2003
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    closer
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    Quote Originally Posted by ötzi View Post
    We just need some monorails.
    You are on to something.
    It's a war of the mind and we're armed to the teeth.

  5. #14955
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    Oct 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mustonen View Post
    chances are excellent that prices just plateau rather than actually decline.
    I think that depends on the market, just like 2008
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  6. #14956
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    Aug 2020
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    1,089
    Quote Originally Posted by Mustonen View Post
    We’ve put in an offer on a house. It feels like it’s a pretty strong offer, but I guess we’ll see. I’ve about rationalized myself to the conclusion that even if this is a bubble, it’s very likely it isn’t mitigating for a couple years which doesn’t work for me, and chances are excellent that prices just plateau rather than actually decline.

    I dunno. Fingers crossed, though.
    Same.

    Renting the same place would cost 2x at least.

  7. #14957
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    Nov 2013
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    799
    Neighbor has to move. She offered us well under what she was going to list at in a really hot market.

    Our monthly payments/costs will be roughly what we are currently paying in rent.

    If you're trying to time the crash, my guess is on or just after July 15th...when we're supposed to close.

  8. #14958
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    Aug 2020
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    1,089
    I do wonder how many people in CA were saying “the crash is right around the corner” 20 years ago.

    It works for us right now and I’m not smart enough to time the market. Case in point, I was sure COVID would crash the economy and that cars would be cheap in the winter of 2020/2021. Haven’t been right in either of those yet and glad we bought a car last summer.

    Even if I’m wrong, I’ll have a house I can live in at a price I can afford with a 30 year fixed at 2.875%. I don’t see the market I am in suddenly becoming massively unpopular with the crowd that has been moving here forever.

    <shrug>

  9. #14959
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    Jan 2006
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    la la land
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    5,769
    Quote Originally Posted by Skidog View Post
    Agreed and something society will need very soon. I see it being very hard to find good trade work in the near future.

    Most kids are taught they're too good for that.

    Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using TGR Forums mobile app
    Of the 8 graduation parties I went to 5 of the kids were going in to the trades. It’s good to see and much needed.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
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    "Having been Baptized by uller his frosty air now burns my soul with confirmation. I am once again pure." - frozenwater

    "once i let go of my material desires many opportunities for playing with the planet emerge. emerge - to come into being through evolution. ok back to work - i gotta pack." - Slaag Master

    "As for Flock of Seagulls, everytime that song comes up on my ipod, I turn it up- way up." - goldenboy

  10. #14960
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    Nov 2007
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    4,887
    Quote Originally Posted by glademaster View Post
    Most people want to get into careers that don't destroy their bodies by the time they're in their mid 40's. Can't say I blame them.

    In the PNW I saw a surprisingly large number of white guys of all ages in the trades, here in Colorado, it's rare to see a white dude who's under the age of 50 on a job site, and when you do, odds are it's the PM. I've also seen more serious injuries on job sites in 7 months here than I saw in 3 years in Washington. I see shit every single day on job sites here that would have had those sites shut down and people losing their licenses in Washington.

    Jobs in the trades paid a lot better in WWA than around here too, despite the cost of living being similar.

    There are very few things worth dying or being maimed for, and a job sure as shit isn't one of them.
    Dunno why CO is more dangerous than PNW per your anecdote.

    Education about career paths is required.

    I have a few friends who are plumbers or electricians in their ‘50’s. With experience, some construction workers move to foreman/estimator/project manager; some become “paper” general contractors, and hire laborers and subs to do the work.

    Lots of people can find a good path to earn well and enjoy their lives.

  11. #14961
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    Oct 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by 54-46 View Post
    Dunno why CO is more dangerous than PNW per your anecdote.
    It's speculation, and I don't know if the anecdotes are backed up by data anyway, but it's worth noting that CO has no licensing for general contractors. Anyone with a truck and a chop saw is a "contractor" there. In other states we have to take tests and are responsible to the Contractors Board, which in really egregious cases will take action.

    I'm the youngest GC I know at 45, and most of the other trades around here are older as well. There is a legit crisis coming, especially with the real need to build more housing in the US. It's always been puzzling to me that more young people aren't interested. Work outside, make decent money, stay in shape, move anywhere you want, etc. I have 2 college degrees and wouldn't take another career if I could go back--trades all the way.
    ride bikes, climb, ski, travel, cook, work to fund former, repeat.

  12. #14962
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    Oct 2003
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    The Shed of Incorruptible Veracity
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    Quote Originally Posted by 54-46 View Post
    Dunno why CO is more dangerous than PNW per your anecdote.

    Education about career paths is required.

    I have a few friends who are plumbers or electricians in their ‘50’s. With experience, some construction workers move to foreman/estimator/project manager; some become “paper” general contractors, and hire laborers and subs to do the work.

    Lots of people can find a good path to earn well and enjoy their lives.
    There are certainly ways to make a career out of it, there are just as many ways to end up middle-aged, broken and broke though.

    I attribute my anecdotal experience w/r/t accidents to there being less oversight/enforcement of safety regulations, and the residential projects being larger/more complex here.
    The truth doesn't care about your feelings.

  13. #14963
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    How likely are you to get to/past $200k in a trade, though? Or even $100k?
    focus.

  14. #14964
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    Dec 2004
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    Where the sheets have no stains
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mustonen View Post
    How likely are you to get to/past $200k in a trade, though? Or even $100k?
    I am charging $ 85.00 an hour now & phone won't stop ringing, I am giving away clients because I have too many and I rarely lift anything over 20 lbs. During December-March I work about 20 hrs a week.

    I will gross 125K this year. If I could find anyone worth a shit to hire I could double that. Granted this is a very hot construction market but I plan to do this until late 2024 and retire.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

  15. #14965
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    Mar 2008
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    the ham
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    Don't know if this is true for other locations, but prices and sales activity tend to plateau every summer here in NWW. Possibly due to our summers being so short that nobody wants to waste them, and/or everyone leaves town.

  16. #14966
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    Oct 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mustonen View Post
    How likely are you to get to/past $200k in a trade, though? Or even $100k?
    100k is easy. That's less than $50/hr. I pay carpenters that.

    $200k is harder for hourly, but maybe possible in high wage areas. The owners of the companies can easily do that though. Fastfred will prob weigh in, since his weed bill alone requires 5 figures. I'd argue that the people who have the potential to make that much in tech or whatever are not the target audience. The people who scrape by at $60k in some administrative thing or whatever could make way more money in the trades though.

    The broken bodies argument is tough to refute for certain things like framing, roofing, or concrete work. People with a little talent usually can move on to something less abusive within 5-10 years though. I did a lot of framing early, but switched to trim carpentry, which is pretty mellow. Plumbing and electrical are not strenuous either. Plus, humans do better when they are active. Sitting at desk isn't healthy either.

    Sent from my SM-G970U1 using TGR Forums mobile app
    ride bikes, climb, ski, travel, cook, work to fund former, repeat.

  17. #14967
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    Oct 2003
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    Big in Japan
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    48,800
    You must be young to type that.

    You better have figured out how not to do physical labor by age 50 (ideally managing others laboring), or, you will be miserable, eventually.

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  18. #14968
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    Master plumbers and electricians in this town can make 100k easily.

    To get anywhere near 200K they'd have to employ a crew.

  19. #14969
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    Oct 2003
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    Also, who's to say that home construction may eventually be disrupted by technology, therefore eliminating once lucrative trades? Like that hasn't happened somewhat already?

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  20. #14970
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    Mar 2008
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    northern BC
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    i think some guy with a laptop is more likely to be disrupted than a tradesman

    I got 2 kids one did engineering and one did the high end trade, ironicaly it was probably the smarter one who did the trade, 5 years in they were both were making the same money but the tradesman didnt spend 5 yrs in school,

    the tradesman was pretty limited in opurtoonity but then he went into a management gig which is way cleaner way easier on the body but harder on the brain
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  21. #14971
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    Mar 2006
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    17,764
    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Striker View Post
    Don't know if this is true for other locations, but prices and sales activity tend to plateau every summer here in NWW. Possibly due to our summers being so short that nobody wants to waste them, and/or everyone leaves town.
    The summer slowdown is normal everywhere. I hope it coincides with more inventory. Realtor explained it as people who really want their house want to be in before Labor Day.

  22. #14972
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    Nov 2006
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    Wyoming
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    1,435
    I had an orthopedic doc tell me many years ago that you see old skiers or old carpenters, but not old skiing carpenters. I'm glad to see people figuring out how to do both.

  23. #14973
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    Mar 2008
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    northern BC
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    We got old skiing carpenters up here, not much building done when its too cold to pour concrete so go skiing and they can build their own ski cabins
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  24. #14974
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    May 2007
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    Sandy, Utah
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    14,392
    Quote Originally Posted by Mustonen View Post
    How likely are you to get to/past $200k in a trade, though? Or even $100k?
    Don't know likelihood but I know my brother in law is more like $700k- $1mil depending on year. Commercial work can dry up fast, but he's good and hard working so even if he had to go back to dealing with homeowners I suspect he would still be making $500k/yr.

    I know a few others that hover around $300k but you're right, who knows? I don't think every lawyer or doctor makes $200k either, but they also have mounds of debt, mostly.

    Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using TGR Forums mobile app

  25. #14975
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    Mar 2008
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    the ham
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    The summer slowdown is normal everywhere. I hope it coincides with more inventory. Realtor explained it as people who really want their house want to be in before Labor Day.
    We don't even have that here. It picks up just after the kids go back to school.

    Like all markets, there's an overshoot, and you can see it in the listings here right now. People who didn't have any real intention of selling catching the "I could make a ton on this dump" bug. That'll add to the inventory but it's more noise than signal.

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