Real Estate Crash thread

[subtle plague]

We just need some monorails.

You are on to something.

[summit]

chances are excellent that prices just plateau rather than actually decline.

I think that depends on the market, just like 2008

[old_newguy]

We’ve put in an offer on a house. It feels like it’s a pretty strong offer, but I guess we’ll see. I’ve about rationalized myself to the conclusion that even if this is a bubble, it’s very likely it isn’t mitigating for a couple years which doesn’t work for me, and chances are excellent that prices just plateau rather than actually decline.

I dunno. Fingers crossed, though.

Same.

Renting the same place would cost 2x at least.

[gnarbro365]

Neighbor has to move. She offered us well under what she was going to list at in a really hot market.

Our monthly payments/costs will be roughly what we are currently paying in rent.

If you're trying to time the crash, my guess is on or just after July 15th...when we're supposed to close.

[old_newguy]

I do wonder how many people in CA were saying “the crash is right around the corner” 20 years ago.

It works for us right now and I’m not smart enough to time the market. Case in point, I was sure COVID would crash the economy and that cars would be cheap in the winter of 2020/2021. Haven’t been right in either of those yet and glad we bought a car last summer.

Even if I’m wrong, I’ll have a house I can live in at a price I can afford with a 30 year fixed at 2.875%. I don’t see the market I am in suddenly becoming massively unpopular with the crowd that has been moving here forever.

<shrug>

[Pow4Brains]

Agreed and something society will need very soon. I see it being very hard to find good trade work in the near future.

Most kids are taught they're too good for that.

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Of the 8 graduation parties I went to 5 of the kids were going in to the trades. It’s good to see and much needed.


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[54-46]

Most people want to get into careers that don't destroy their bodies by the time they're in their mid 40's. Can't say I blame them.

In the PNW I saw a surprisingly large number of white guys of all ages in the trades, here in Colorado, it's rare to see a white dude who's under the age of 50 on a job site, and when you do, odds are it's the PM. I've also seen more serious injuries on job sites in 7 months here than I saw in 3 years in Washington. I see shit every single day on job sites here that would have had those sites shut down and people losing their licenses in Washington.

Jobs in the trades paid a lot better in WWA than around here too, despite the cost of living being similar.

There are very few things worth dying or being maimed for, and a job sure as shit isn't one of them.

Dunno why CO is more dangerous than PNW per your anecdote.

Education about career paths is required.

I have a few friends who are plumbers or electricians in their ‘50’s. With experience, some construction workers move to foreman/estimator/project manager; some become “paper” general contractors, and hire laborers and subs to do the work.

Lots of people can find a good path to earn well and enjoy their lives.

[climberevan]

Dunno why CO is more dangerous than PNW per your anecdote.

It's speculation, and I don't know if the anecdotes are backed up by data anyway, but it's worth noting that CO has no licensing for general contractors. Anyone with a truck and a chop saw is a "contractor" there. In other states we have to take tests and are responsible to the Contractors Board, which in really egregious cases will take action.

I'm the youngest GC I know at 45, and most of the other trades around here are older as well. There is a legit crisis coming, especially with the real need to build more housing in the US. It's always been puzzling to me that more young people aren't interested. Work outside, make decent money, stay in shape, move anywhere you want, etc. I have 2 college degrees and wouldn't take another career if I could go back--trades all the way.

[glademaster]

Dunno why CO is more dangerous than PNW per your anecdote.

Education about career paths is required.

I have a few friends who are plumbers or electricians in their ‘50’s. With experience, some construction workers move to foreman/estimator/project manager; some become “paper” general contractors, and hire laborers and subs to do the work.

Lots of people can find a good path to earn well and enjoy their lives.

There are certainly ways to make a career out of it, there are just as many ways to end up middle-aged, broken and broke though.

I attribute my anecdotal experience w/r/t accidents to there being less oversight/enforcement of safety regulations, and the residential projects being larger/more complex here.

[Mustonen]

How likely are you to get to/past $200k in a trade, though? Or even $100k?

[Bunion 2020]

How likely are you to get to/past $200k in a trade, though? Or even $100k?

I am charging $ 85.00 an hour now & phone won't stop ringing, I am giving away clients because I have too many and I rarely lift anything over 20 lbs. During December-March I work about 20 hrs a week.

I will gross 125K this year. If I could find anyone worth a shit to hire I could double that. Granted this is a very hot construction market but I plan to do this until late 2024 and retire.

[Ted Striker]

Don't know if this is true for other locations, but prices and sales activity tend to plateau every summer here in NWW. Possibly due to our summers being so short that nobody wants to waste them, and/or everyone leaves town.

[climberevan]

How likely are you to get to/past $200k in a trade, though? Or even $100k?

100k is easy. That's less than $50/hr. I pay carpenters that.

$200k is harder for hourly, but maybe possible in high wage areas. The owners of the companies can easily do that though. Fastfred will prob weigh in, since his weed bill alone requires 5 figures. I'd argue that the people who have the potential to make that much in tech or whatever are not the target audience. The people who scrape by at $60k in some administrative thing or whatever could make way more money in the trades though.

The broken bodies argument is tough to refute for certain things like framing, roofing, or concrete work. People with a little talent usually can move on to something less abusive within 5-10 years though. I did a lot of framing early, but switched to trim carpentry, which is pretty mellow. Plumbing and electrical are not strenuous either. Plus, humans do better when they are active. Sitting at desk isn't healthy either.

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[Benny Profane]

You must be young to type that.

You better have figured out how not to do physical labor by age 50 (ideally managing others laboring), or, you will be miserable, eventually.

[Ted Striker]

Master plumbers and electricians in this town can make 100k easily.

To get anywhere near 200K they'd have to employ a crew.

[Benny Profane]

Also, who's to say that home construction may eventually be disrupted by technology, therefore eliminating once lucrative trades? Like that hasn't happened somewhat already?

[XXX-er]

i think some guy with a laptop is more likely to be disrupted than a tradesman

I got 2 kids one did engineering and one did the high end trade, ironicaly it was probably the smarter one who did the trade, 5 years in they were both were making the same money but the tradesman didnt spend 5 yrs in school,

the tradesman was pretty limited in opurtoonity but then he went into a management gig which is way cleaner way easier on the body but harder on the brain

[4matic]

Don't know if this is true for other locations, but prices and sales activity tend to plateau every summer here in NWW. Possibly due to our summers being so short that nobody wants to waste them, and/or everyone leaves town.

The summer slowdown is normal everywhere. I hope it coincides with more inventory. Realtor explained it as people who really want their house want to be in before Labor Day.

[WMD]

I had an orthopedic doc tell me many years ago that you see old skiers or old carpenters, but not old skiing carpenters. I'm glad to see people figuring out how to do both.

[XXX-er]

We got old skiing carpenters up here, not much building done when its too cold to pour concrete so go skiing and they can build their own ski cabins

[Skidog]

How likely are you to get to/past $200k in a trade, though? Or even $100k?

Don't know likelihood but I know my brother in law is more like $700k- $1mil depending on year. Commercial work can dry up fast, but he's good and hard working so even if he had to go back to dealing with homeowners I suspect he would still be making $500k/yr.

I know a few others that hover around $300k but you're right, who knows? I don't think every lawyer or doctor makes $200k either, but they also have mounds of debt, mostly.

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[Ted Striker]

The summer slowdown is normal everywhere. I hope it coincides with more inventory. Realtor explained it as people who really want their house want to be in before Labor Day.

We don't even have that here. It picks up just after the kids go back to school.

Like all markets, there's an overshoot, and you can see it in the listings here right now. People who didn't have any real intention of selling catching the "I could make a ton on this dump" bug. That'll add to the inventory but it's more noise than signal.

[liv2ski]

Not that these jobs are out there by the dozens (maybe they are), but I know my processors husband who does commercial building estimates (as in building it from the ground up) makes a solid $200k and there is no physical labor involved.
The GC's in my town are making waaay more than $200k, but their jobs are a big PITA.
There are so many careers that pay big, it is to bad the guidance counselors do such a shit job of exposing kids to everything that is out there. Maybe a new class for 10th graders, "Careers and Your Place in Them".

[Ted Striker]

There seems to be a lot of mingling of 'workers' vs 'business owners' going on here.

It's easy to get rich as a developer (and easy to go broke). Same goes for running a fleet of skilled tradesmen doing plumbing/electrical/HVAC etc.

An employee carpenter that doesn't transition to PM or GC isn't going to break whatever their market pays. Around here that means sub-100k.

[m2711c]

if the owner is doing the work whats the difference?