Real Estate Crash thread

**glademaster** · 03-09-2021, 12:05 PM

Originally Posted by Whiteroom_Guardian

440sf 1970s construction walk to the base area condos at Big Sky are about to break the $300k mark.

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What a deal! I'll take two!

I can't even buy a single 500sf, 50 year old condo for $700k here.

**4matic** · 03-09-2021, 12:06 PM

Originally Posted by RootSkier

Massively high prices are not necessarily great for sellers who are staying in the same area. I am sure the two realtors are happy but the 10 whose offers were rejected can't find houses for their clients, so even they are pissed off.

My 25 year experience agent was struggling like many so he joined a discount broker and now he is really busy. So busy that I feel neglected at times..lol.

He is 50% commission rebate to buyer so I wanted to use him as buyer agent but since I’m looking out of the area he says agents in that local market won’t return his calls or schedule showings. Turf war!

**Whiteroom_Guardian** · 03-09-2021, 12:07 PM

Originally Posted by glademaster

What a deal! I'll take two!

I can't even buy a single 500sf, 50 year old condo for $700k here.

Exactly. Longtime MT locals are flabbergasted. Buyers who have been to basically any other real ski area are like, "Why are these so cheap?"

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**RootSkier** · 03-09-2021, 12:16 PM

The Hill Condos? A bargain with new siding. Have the assessments for all that hit yet?

**glademaster** · 03-09-2021, 12:20 PM

Originally Posted by Whiteroom_Guardian

Exactly. Longtime MT locals are flabbergasted. Buyers who have been to basically any other real ski area are like, "Why are these so cheap?"

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Yeah, although my perspective is particularly warped living in the A$pen area. That $700k condo I was referring to in my hypothetical might be 30 miles from a ski area around here.

I live 55 miles from my office, and while the commute sucks, I wouldn't trade the valley I live in for the RFV.

**Ted Striker** · 03-09-2021, 01:09 PM

Originally Posted by RootSkier

A house on my street in Missoula listed for $665k this week and had 11 offers, is now under contract for $745k. Fucking $80k over asking and probably all cash, and on a weird triangular lot that is half the size of most. This is not good for anybody.

A house in my hood listed at 6something is now under contract for 100 over asking. Excessive earnest money too. Another one closed at 60+ over and needs 40k of work.

My wife's colleague recently wrote an offer on an average house in a nothing special neighborhood that had over 30 competing offers.

This is the perfect storm of millennials (baby boom) hitting their high earning years, the oldest boomers beginning to cash out, historically low rates, and wfh becoming the norm rather than the exception for a big group of people who'd rather live in smaller outdoorsy towns.

**char_** · 03-09-2021, 01:21 PM

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

A house in my hood listed at 6something is now under contract for 100 over asking. Excessive earnest money too. Another one closed at 60+ over and needs 40k of work.

My wife's colleague recently wrote an offer on an average house in a nothing special neighborhood that had over 30 competing offers.

This is the perfect storm of millennials (baby boom) hitting their high earning years, the oldest boomers beginning to cash out, historically low rates, and wfh becoming the norm rather than the exception for a big group of people who'd rather live in smaller outdoorsy towns.

We have looked at quite a few homes that are definitely in the boomer cashing out category.

Some one earlier also pointed out that we also missed out on years of new home construction due to the Great Recession.

**goldenboy** · 03-09-2021, 01:29 PM

Originally Posted by Whiteroom_Guardian

440sf 1970s construction walk to the base area condos at Big Sky are about to break the $300k mark.

A condo basically just like that was just listed in Crested Butte for $215K, nicely remodeled. So I guess CB is cheap compared to Big Sky

**anotherVTskibum** · 03-09-2021, 01:35 PM

Originally Posted by Whiteroom_Guardian

440sf 1970s construction walk to the base area condos at Big Sky are about to break the $300k mark.

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There's a bit of difference in terrain and snowfall between the Boyne resorts in question. $300k walk to base at Big Sky doesn't make me flinch the way $250-300+ for Maine slopeside does, but then again, it's that local perspective: I've overheard Boston-area skiers talk about buying the old slopeside condos here kinda like I'd talk about picking up a nicely priced pair of skis from gear swap, but I just can't get the $50k-ish prices they were when my parents had one out of my head.

In hindsight, I kinda wish they'd kept it and I'd taken out more student loans.

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**AdironRider** · 03-09-2021, 02:25 PM

Originally Posted by anotherVTskibum

In hindsight, I kinda wish they'd kept it and I'd taken out more student loans.

The amazing part of this statement is it is true. They could have written the condo over to you and you would have come out way ahead.

**AdironRider** · 03-09-2021, 02:34 PM

So much for Zillow being ok with the little guy listings....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/zillow-fa...122136112.html

**4matic** · 03-09-2021, 02:51 PM

Originally Posted by AdironRider

So much for Zillow being ok with the little guy listings....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/zillow-fa...122136112.html

When did Zillow ever say it was for the little guy? REX sucks and is desperate. Scott Mcnealy, as wealthy as he is, always blames others for his problems.

**AdironRider** · 03-09-2021, 02:53 PM

You own their stock or something? You were the one who pointed out that zillow supposedly doesn't screw over FSBO and other such listings but then it turns out they do and are getting sued for it.

**4matic** · 03-09-2021, 02:56 PM

I’ve never said anything like that. An owner could pay for visibility. That’s not Zillow’s fault.

No one is forcing you to sell to a commissioned agent.

**4matic** · 03-09-2021, 03:13 PM

One other point is that during pandemic FSBO is difficult in California and I suspect elsewhere with covid guidelines. It’s not like there was demand for it either. Even if you are selling without an agent it is foolish to sell without MLS exposure.

In Alameda County there are 15 total listings on Zillow for FSBO. There is no demand for that type sale.

**Toadman** · 03-09-2021, 03:43 PM

Originally Posted by RootSkier

A house on my street in Missoula listed for $665k this week and had 11 offers, is now under contract for $745k. Fucking $80k over asking and probably all cash, and on a weird triangular lot that is half the size of most. This is not good for anybody.

Well, TBF, it's good for this particular seller.

This is worth a read. Those poor millenials. Getting shafted again. They start graduating college into the Great Recession, and now the COVID causes mayhem on their house buying dreams. At least they are killing it in the stock market.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/soaring-h...195546721.html

It all threatens to freeze broad swaths of the population out of the market, leaving millions of Americans in a less secure financial position, widening the racial wealth gap and forcing millennials, already lagging previous generations in building wealth and forming families, to fall even further behind.

eanwhile, a glut of millennials — the largest generational cohort in the country consisting of those born from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s — is reaching the prime age for buying first homes, and regional data suggests the pandemic spurred plenty of them to pick up stakes and head for the suburbs.

But there are simply not enough houses to meet the demographic demand, driving up the price of those houses that are for sale and potentially delaying many other millennials’ ability to become homeowners, the primary way Americans build wealth.

**liv2ski** · 03-09-2021, 03:45 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Even if you are selling without an agent it is foolish to sell without MLS exposure.

Yup, where do you think all those over asking price offers are coming from? Listing agent 1% / buyers agent 2.5% FTMFW.

**Kinnikinnick** · 03-09-2021, 04:32 PM

Why does anyone think the MLS or zillow owe homeowners anything?

Private businesses, you know free markets?

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**Skidog** · 03-09-2021, 05:27 PM

Are these people listing at prices that are low or something? I mean I get demand, but seems if the property went for $80k over it was not priced correctly to begin with?? Not a realtor.

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**Conundrum** · 03-09-2021, 05:33 PM

I bet they were listed $50-100k over what they would have been last year. A house a few blocks from me was bought at $315k in late '17 which seemed high then. Listed a couple weeks ago at $498k and sold for $538k. Only house under $600k to sell around here in the last few months. It's tiny, on a tiny lot, with one bathroom with the door opening next to the refrigerator in the kitchen. Open concept so I'm sure will be a great house for entertaining as long as your guests don't ever have to crap.

**AdironRider** · 03-09-2021, 05:39 PM

I'm pretty sure no woman would invite back anyone who dropped bombs during a dinner party anyways.

**char_** · 03-09-2021, 05:44 PM

Originally Posted by Skidog

Are these people listing at prices that are low or something? I mean I get demand, but seems if the property went for $80k over it was not priced correctly to begin with?? Not a realtor.

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I’ve anecdotally heard that they are pricing them low expecting irrational buyers to bid up the price by 50-100k. Still need the house to appraise if financing is involved. Although there are people out there waiving appraisal contingencies as well.

**neufox47** · 03-09-2021, 05:49 PM

Originally Posted by char_

I’ve anecdotally heard that they are pricing them low expecting irrational buyers to bid up the price by 50-100k. Still need the house to appraise if financing is involved. Although there are people out there waiving appraisal contingencies as well.

Realtors make more money selling houses quickly than for top dollar. The typical racket is to under price them to ensure a quick sale, then they can tell their client “look how great I did it sold for over asking price.” To be fair, when prices are going up so fast it is hard to price well. In Loomis, CA people have just started throwing out “crazy” asking prices and some are getting it. Suddenly a 3 bed 2 bath 2,000 sqft house is going for 700+. Still a bargain if you’re coming from the Bay or elsewhere by the coast.

**RootSkier** · 03-09-2021, 06:06 PM

Originally Posted by neufox47

Realtors make more money selling houses quickly than for top dollar. The typical racket is to under price them to ensure a quick sale, then they can tell their client “look how great I did it sold for over asking price.”

I don't think that is what is happening now. Realtors are having serious conversations with sellers, pricing homes near but not at the top of what they can justify, but with the knowledge that there absolutely will be a bidding war. Far better to have a bidding war the first 3 days of a listing than to let it sit for 2 months, where it starts to look tainted. And, by encouraging bidding wars, sellers are leveraging the fact that buyers must not only come up with the best price, but with the best terms. So we have people here making million+ offers for pure cash, so there are no financing or appraisal contingencies. If you put an appraisal contingency in your offer right now, you might as well not even waste the ink.

**char_** · 03-09-2021, 06:08 PM

Originally Posted by RootSkier

I don't think that is what is happening now. Realtors are having serious conversations with sellers, pricing homes near but not at the top of what they can justify, but with the knowledge that there absolutely will be a bidding war. Far better to have a bidding war the first 3 days of a listing than to let it sit for 2 months, where it starts to look tainted. And, by encouraging bidding wars, sellers are having the advantage that buyers must not only come up with the best price, but with the best terms. So we have people here making million+ offers for pure cash, so there are no financing or appraisal contingencies.

Let me know if you know of any houses that are habitable that have sat for 2 months. Nothing around here lasts past Monday at noon.