Real Estate Crash thread

[ötzi]

Up 14% year-over-year nationally is pretty strong https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-ma...BoC3GUQAvD_BwE

Scroll down to the 10 10 Metros though. Odd group.

[goldenboy]

Up 14% year-over-year nationally is pretty strong https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-ma...BoC3GUQAvD_BwE

Scroll down to the 10 10 Metros though. Odd group.

Never would have guessed rust belt Cleveland, Akron, and Detroit on that list. Thought they were still bulldozing homes there.

[Benny Profane]

the return of reasonable interest rates should at least slow it down.....

Not in your lifetime.

[Benny Profane]

Never would have guessed rust belt Cleveland, Akron, and Detroit on that list. Thought they were still bulldozing homes there.

The only way was up.

[Kevo]

I have a limited understanding of how the real estate world works, but here is what I think I understand-

It may be reasonable to expect a wave of foreclosures if the moratoriums and forbearance programs end, which would greatly increase supply in real estate. One would expect this to eventually lead to a drop in prices like 2008, but there are other things at play.

-The banks now know better than to flood the markets with supply. They'll likely hold foreclosures and release them slowly onto the market.
-There are many institutional investors looking to buy up residential real estate.
-There seems to be incredible pent up demand due to the low inventory.
-Mortgages keep getting underwriten at incredibly low rates, despite what may be more risk of defailts. How many people refied last year only to be laid off and enter forebearance a couple weeks or months later?

The only housing doomsday scenario I can see is rates going up because of a significant increase in defaults (if no one buys mortgage bonds, yields have to increase) at a time when supply increases because banks are somehow forced to offload their foreclosure inventory.

[Mazderati]

Pent-up demand from young(er) fucks ready to buy, too.

At least buying into a market with higher interest rates and lower prices leaves the potential for rates to come down and the chance to save money via refinancing. That doesn't exist buying into a market with low interest rates and high prices; you just straight up lose money when interest rates go up.

[Name Redacted]

Mortgages keep getting underwriten at incredibly low rates, despite what may be more risk of defailts. How many people refied last year only to be laid off and enter forebearance a couple weeks or months later?

We refied back right before the pandemic, skipped 2 months mortgage payments, then when covid closed everything we got a 3 month forbearance, then paid mortgage for a few months, now we are refinancing again at an even lower rate, this time with a cashout to pay off student loans, that were in forebearance too. Been a lot of fucking around with paperwork and such this year but I guess that it is worth it.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Yeah 2007 isn't happening again. We may see very slight leveling, possibly a touch of increased inventory (when inventory is basically zero.....add a couple hundred more homes and they will just be gobbled up instantly with these low rates and coastal money looking to move from cities.....investors sitting on piles of cash looking to buy the "dip" etc).

All depends on where you live, but here we maybe see a price plateau for like a month and then it will be right back into the rocket ship.

[glademaster]

Spoken like a true dirt pimp.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Spoken like a true dirt pimp.

Hey I wish I was wrong. I'd be busier if I was wrong. It's too hot here. Tons of buyers and nothing to buy.

[Benny Profane]

Spoken like a true ski town dirt pimp.

Fify

[goldenboy]

Hey I wish I was wrong. I'd be busier if I was wrong. It's too hot here. Tons of buyers and nothing to buy.

Word. Ski town dirt pimpin' isn't that easy right now when there's nothing to sell.

[liv2ski]

The only way was up.

Exactly what I thought.

[liv2ski]

Recently CA passed a proposition that would supposedly get boomers to sell by telling us we could transfer our present property taxes anywhere in the state on the new purchase. Ya, that is helpful, but what about all the fucking Capital gains taxes charged on a 1.0M+ gain? Before Shrub 1 change the tax rules, there was no gain if you rolled all the proceeds into the next home. Now you get an exclusion on $500k of the gain if married. In my case I would pay $600k in taxes to sell and move. Guess that is never happening. I will just rent it out and when my kids inherit it the basis is moved to the present market so no gain to be taxed.
Fuck you Mr. Tax man.

[glademaster]

Hey I wish I was wrong. I'd be busier if I was wrong. It's too hot here. Tons of buyers and nothing to buy.

I can believe that. Although it's a bummer that you weren't pulling numbers like Ms. Wells this month.

"Wells, during one week in December, closed almost $70 million in the sales of three luxury properties."

[schuss]

Recently CA passed a proposition that would supposedly get boomers to sell by telling us we could transfer our present property taxes anywhere in the state on the new purchase. Ya, that is helpful, but what about all the fucking Capital gains taxes charged on a 1.0M+ gain? Before Shrub 1 change the tax rules, there was no gain if you rolled all the proceeds into the next home. Now you get an exclusion on $500k of the gain if married. In my case I would pay $600k in taxes to sell and move. Guess that is never happening. I will just rent it out and when my kids inherit it the basis is moved to the present market so no gain to be taxed.
Fuck you Mr. Tax man.

Are you really crying about having to pay tax on hundreds of k in gains? Don't be a whiner.

[m2711c]

You only pay taxes when you make money....

[liv2ski]

Are you really crying about having to pay tax on hundreds of k in gains? Don't be a whiner.

Many countries don't tax gains on a primary residence. So ya, I put out there one way to get around it.

[schuss]

Many countries don't tax gains on a primary residence. So ya, I put out there one way to get around it.

CA has enough "get out of property tax" things. Pay your share and don't be another whiny boomer.

[liv2ski]

CA has enough "get out of property tax" things. Pay your share and don't be another whiny boomer.

Sorry Jr., the way you get cash is to not piss it away

[RootSkier]

Recently CA passed a proposition that would supposedly get boomers to sell by telling us we could transfer our present property taxes anywhere in the state on the new purchase. Ya, that is helpful, but what about all the fucking Capital gains taxes charged on a 1.0M+ gain? Before Shrub 1 change the tax rules, there was no gain if you rolled all the proceeds into the next home. Now you get an exclusion on $500k of the gain if married. In my case I would pay $600k in taxes to sell and move. Guess that is never happening. I will just rent it out and when my kids inherit it the basis is moved to the present market so no gain to be taxed.
Fuck you Mr. Tax man.

Assuming you mean taxes on $600k, rather than $600k in taxes: Oh no, you have to pay $90,000 in federal long-term capital gains taxes on what is, in reality, $1.1 million in gains?

Fucking boomers. Fuck right off.

[El Chupacabra]

Recently CA passed a proposition that would supposedly get boomers to sell by telling us we could transfer our present property taxes anywhere in the state on the new purchase. Ya, that is helpful, but what about all the fucking Capital gains taxes charged on a 1.0M+ gain? Before Shrub 1 change the tax rules, there was no gain if you rolled all the proceeds into the next home. Now you get an exclusion on $500k of the gain if married. In my case I would pay $600k in taxes to sell and move. Guess that is never happening. I will just rent it out and when my kids inherit it the basis is moved to the present market so no gain to be taxed.
Fuck you Mr. Tax man.

If you would have to pay $600k in taxes, what's your gain? It'd have to be many millions. Or did you mean you'd be taxed on $600k of gains?

[zion zig zag]

Are you really crying about having to pay tax on hundreds of k in gains? Don't be a whiner.

No, he's crying about paying tax on 4.5 million in gains, based on the numbers given.

[schuss]

No, he's crying about paying tax on 4.5 million in gains, based on the numbers given.

Couldn't tell if he was referring to 600k in tax or 600k in gains. I try to be charitable.
Sorry liv2ski, I don't believe in stealing from my kids and community. How's that grab you champ.

[RootSkier]

If you would have to pay $600k in taxes, what's your gain? It'd have to be many millions.

If we are just talking federal LTG: $4 million, which doesn't include the federal deduction for the first $500k. So $4.5 million in gain. Waaaaaah. If it includes California, then what, half that? Still waaaaaah.

Edit; TIL there is a 20% LTG tax bracket. So my math is wrong. Still, fuck off boomers.