Real Estate Crash thread

[4matic]

Google closed on a lease this month for an additional 42,000 square feet of office space in downtown San Francisco's Two Rincon Center, expanding its total real estate in the Financial District building to roughly 200,000 square feet.

[m2711c]

must be where they gonna put all those new anti trust lawyers they gotta hire....


Justice Dept. files landmark antitrust case against Google

https://apnews.com/article/google-ju...55ec5d4db06044

[4matic]

More likely Google is going to expand other businesses. Like Apple a couple years ago.

[Falcon3]

I guess they like their immediate family members, and they prefer a two season state as opposed to dealing with winter in Central Oregon. There are actually quite a few people that live in Deschutes County that aren't into the winter sports thing...

Nice places within a reasonable day round trip drive to see family:

Tucson
Flagstaff
Prescott/PV
Sedona

[Toadman]

Nice places within a reasonable day round trip drive to see family:

Tucson
Flagstaff
Prescott/PV
Sedona

I believe they will be some where near Prescott.

Meanwhile, out of curiosity I was surfing Zillow and stumbled on this charming little place in Scottsdale. Views aren't too shabby either.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...5090737_zpid/?

[Falcon3]

I believe they will be some where near Prescott.

Meanwhile, out of curiosity I was surfing Zillow and stumbled on this charming little place in Scottsdale. Views aren't too shabby either.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...5090737_zpid/?

That might be above even a dentist's pay grade. Orthodontia FTW.

[yeahman]

More likely Google is going to expand other businesses. Like Apple a couple years ago.

So if you owned Google stock would you hold or sell?

[Kinnikinnick]

So if you owned Google stock would you hold or sell?

Yes


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Self Jupiter]

But, it seems like commercial supply of all types - especially office - would have to start increasing at some point next year even if residential doesn't.

Here around Boston retail is doing very poorly but I need to figure out the right word to refer to the ‘’market’’ for office space, it’s more like office availability. Small unit pricing is down 20-30+% but they’re slowly being rented here and there. The prices for larger spaces are in free fall, the larger organizations, fee and far between that need the space are kicking back and watching the show.

[Benny Profane]

You wonder how the demise of WeWork at the same time is messing with this market. I read that, at the end, they owned or leased a ton of commercial space in NYC and the northeast.

https://www.curbed.com/2020/10/wewor...k-excerpt.html

[schuss]

You wonder how the demise of WeWork at the same time is messing with this market. I read that, at the end, they owned or leased a ton of commercial space in NYC and the northeast.

Honestly it's COVID forcing WFH into WFH making execs realize the butt is in the seat regardless of office or home, then cost optimization for the upcoming recession. As other articles have pointed out, all in expense for an employee from real-estate/maintenance/equipment can be expensive, so tossing them $1500 for home office stuff and selling your space is a great deal for most corps. Couple that with being able to depress pay by NOT hiring using NYC/SF payscales and it's a potential huge amount of fixed cost savings with zero downside for a year+

[fastfred]

Honestly it's COVID forcing WFH into WFH making execs realize the butt is in the seat regardless of office or home, then cost optimization for the upcoming recession. +

recession when? how exactly is that going to happen? I mean if you live in some burnt out shit hole upstate ny ohio town that hasn't seen good days since the factory moved to mexico or china then yeah I see a recession but the rest of the country, probably not, educate me please

[schuss]

recession when? how exactly is that going to happen? I mean if you live in some burnt out shit hole upstate ny ohio town that hasn't seen good days since the factory moved to mexico or china then yeah I see a recession but the rest of the country, probably not, educate me please

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

See the GDP dropping off a cliff there? The nearly wholesale dissolution of food services and tourism industries will have an impact. People not driving as much, lack of commercial activity around workplaces etc.
We'll get through it, but in the short term, shit is going to hit the fan for a bit. Go search for recent layoffs. Most I've seen are 5-10% of workforce.
Some excerpts:
"In the meantime, the pace of layoffs shows little sign of flagging. Disney said last week that it would cut 28,000 jobs. And American Airlines and United Airlines combined furloughed 32,000 employees last week. Airlines had been barred from cutting jobs as long as they were receiving federal aid, which expired this month. The American Hotel & Lodging Association has said that nearly three-quarters of hotels say they’ll have to lay off more workers without further financial aid."
https://apnews.com/article/virus-out...ef8c14ac74ace4
Choice quote: "Half of all small businesses expect to need more aid from the government over the next 12 months to survive, according to a survey by the right-leaning National Federation of Independent Business. Sales for about one-fifth of small companies are still down 50% or more from pre-pandemic levels, the NFIB said."
https://apnews.com/article/virus-out...0d15f0e9debd80

Another: "The nation now has 7% fewer jobs than in February. Yet the damage is far deeper in some sectors. The performing arts and spectator sports category, which includes Valiente’s industry, has lost 47% of its jobs. It hasn’t added any net jobs since the coronavirus struck.

Hotels are down 35%, restaurants and bars 19%, transportation 18%. Advertising, one of the first expenses that companies cut in a downturn, is down 9%.

Higher education has lost 9% of its jobs. Many classes have been delayed or moved online, reducing the need for janitors, cafeteria workers and other administrators. Normally during recessions, the education sector adds jobs to accommodate people returning to school to seek marketable skills or education. Not this time."

[AdironRider]

Hotels, Disney, restaurants, those are all low paying gigs and most are part time.

I think the real event is the white collars working from home and the inevitable pay cuts they are going to get if it sticks. Silicon Valley is already trying to flex this. Medium term, if WFH really does stay, why does a company need to pay an American vs some guy in Indonesia? Think about it.

[m2711c]

Yep....I was wondering how long it was gonna take for people to realize that.

[Benny Profane]

recession when? how exactly is that going to happen? I mean if you live in some burnt out shit hole upstate ny ohio town that hasn't seen good days since the factory moved to mexico or china then yeah I see a recession but the rest of the country, probably not, educate me please

You've been in Breck way too long.

[Mazderati]

Here around Boston retail is doing very poorly but I need to figure out the right word to refer to the ‘’market’’ for office space, it’s more like office availability. Small unit pricing is down 20-30+% but they’re slowly being rented here and there. The prices for larger spaces are in free fall, the larger organizations, fee and far between that need the space are kicking back and watching the show.

The number of vacant storefronts in Back Bay and Cambridge stood out like a sore thumb when I was up there last year around this time. For years landlords have been content with letting property sit to try and keep rents inflated and it's taking a toll. Can only guess the number of empty properties is worse now. Be interesting to see how things play out the next few months. Do you primarily work Boston proper or outlying areas?

[4matic]

So if you owned Google stock would you hold or sell?

I thought about this without regard to buy or sell recommendation. I suspect any regulation will ultimately make Google stronger because they can comply with regulation which also will constrain competition. Same with FB.

[fastfred]

my head is in the sand seriously
thats why I ask
I can't fend people off, no doesn't seem to work, call me in four months and I'll talk to you doesn't work, I swear I tell them something and they don't hear what I say which is NO
property has gone stupid in my small mtn town
so when someone says the end is coming I just don't see it, I belive it I do, but I don't see it
I did read this morning that armark in denver finally axed almost 1000 jobs related to coors field and other venues all my actor/theatre friends are so fucked I keep inviting them to come live with me
the gov't money is gone and the reality is setting in for some people I guess
just need to know when it will catch up to ski town usa

Dear Blog-
I have two large jobs going right now, one house is valued at well over 5mil the views are stunning and the ski access is out the door, the owner is a ceo of a very large and well known company. We have spent over one month discussing what fireplace to install. The fireplace unit they decided on is 25k. The price doesn't include stone work or anything else related to the fireplace. Another home we have totally shredded is only in the 3.5mil range. The owners have never worked a day in their life. Although he attends some board meetings a couple times a year. That's my reality.

[Benny Profane]

And, if '08 and the present stock market is any indication, Breck will sail through this just fine. If the chairs spin.

[schuss]

my head is in the sand seriously
thats why I ask
I can't fend people off, no doesn't seem to work, call me in four months and I'll talk to you doesn't work, I swear I tell them something and they don't hear what I say which is NO
property has gone stupid in my small mtn town
so when someone says the end is coming I just don't see it, I belive it I do, but I don't see it
I did read this morning that armark in denver finally axed almost 1000 jobs related to coors field and other venues all my actor/theatre friends are so fucked I keep inviting them to come live with me
the gov't money is gone and the reality is setting in for some people I guess
just need to know when it will catch up to ski town usa

Dear Blog-
I have two large jobs going right now, one house is valued at well over 5mil the views are stunning and the ski access is out the door, the owner is a ceo of a very large and well known company. We have spent over one month discussing what fireplace to install. The fireplace unit they decided on is 25k. The price doesn't include stone work or anything else related to the fireplace. Another home we have totally shredded is only in the 3.5mil range. The owners have never worked a day in their life. Although he attends some board meetings a couple times a year. That's my reality.

New builds and large construction jobs skew towards wealth - which is doing fine despite downturns. Additionally, construction lags economic activity due to switching costs, permitting etc.
You'll be fine.

[Timberridge]

Fred, this one is easy. They see their stock portfolios go up, they spend.

[4matic]

all my actor/theatre friends are so fucked I keep inviting them to come live with me.

The real tragedy is this gutting of art and culture to a wasteland of Netflix “originals”.

[Self Jupiter]

The number of vacant storefronts in Back Bay and Cambridge stood out like a sore thumb when I was up there last year around this time. For years landlords have been content with letting property sit to try and keep rents inflated and it's taking a toll. Can only guess the number of empty properties is worse now. Be interesting to see how things play out the next few months. Do you primarily work Boston proper or outlying areas?

Yep, and a lot of the cool businesses were on their way out already. Most of my work is in urban Boston and up in the Cape Ann / North Shore area where I grew up.

[fastfred]

in late 07 - early 08 the shit was hitting the fan around the country and we were doing just fine but when oct 08 hit the writing was on the wall and it slid slowly into the abyss
some local clowns started building spec's with their cash in early 2010 and we thought they were crazy they were just way ahead of the curve

one project I am on now was going to start in late march, they freaked just like everyone else and pulled the plug, then two months later it was when can we get started?