Real Estate Crash thread

[schuss]

Eh, not that bad if you're well insulated and on high ground. There's the cold and constant tree and branch drops, but worth it for the rest of the time.

[CascadeLuke]

Seattle with no Police Dept will be interesting. Not sure I would want to commit to buying a home there anytime soon, but I guess the city council can always say "Just Kidding".

Yah, Seattle’s a dump. It reminds me of a post I saw a month ago in my company’s private FB page

[liv2ski]

That was a month ago mang. Give the city a few months with no cops. Shit is going to get really weird, so ya, I stand by my original comment. Just give it some time.

[CascadeLuke]

That was a month ago mang. Give the city a few months with no cops. Shit is going to get really weird, so ya, I stand by my original comment. Just give it some time.

How can I monetize this disagreement . .?

Btw a month ago is when Seattle was a “war zone” - right? ...but somehow getting 10-15% over asking price

I’ll bet you, nobody’s turning off the lights for the metro Seattle area. I have yet to feel a whiff of danger and I’m loosing multiple offer situations trying to land homes for clients. How about you turn off the TV..?

[Conundrum]

Yah, Seattle’s a dump. It reminds me of a post I saw a month ago in my company’s private FB page

Cheyenne Gillooly probably knows what’s up.

[Timberridge]

Cheyenne Gillooly probably knows what’s up.

I'd friend her if I was on FB. Cheyenne used to be a popular stripper name.

[Ted Striker]

I'd friend her if I was on FB. Cheyenne used to be a popular stripper name.

But related to this guy?


Hard pass.

[Aldo]

This was where my grandparents house was in Essex Ct. it was small. You can see the old house in street view. I only visited once and was never close to them. Nice area.

$3,275,000
3beds · 4 baths
17 Dickinson Ln, Essex

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...6_M34129-65712

It should’ve been called witch hazel st. That was the Dickinsons old property running down to water.

Cool town but I’ll keep my little compound in Bridgeport for less than a third!


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[4matic]

It should’ve been called witch hazel st. That was the Dickinsons old property running down to water.

Cool town but I’ll keep my little compound in Bridgeport for less than a third!

The Dickinson mansion was at the top of the street off the water.

https://www.realtor.com/news/unique-...n-connecticut/

[ötzi]

Nice house. Not crazy about the looks myself but it's quite a place.

[Toadman]

Zoom cities are growing - Truckee, CA, Missoula, MT, and Bend, OR make the list. Oh, some place called, "The Hampton's", also made the list too

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...-in-big-cities

[Core Shot]

Homes in my neighborhood are going pending in 2-3 days, over asking price. We're seriously considering listing while it's hot.

Me too.
But where do I go?

Ideally rent until things chill. But ain’t nothing for rent either.

[muted]

How the fuck does Missoula get 4 million out of staters annually? Are they counting everyone stopping for gas on their way somewhere else?

Bloomberg is a shite site.

[Harry]

How the fuck does Missoula get 4 million out of staters annually? Are they counting everyone stopping for gas on their way somewhere else?

Bloomberg is a shite site.

Agree.

I lived in Missoula for 25 years and I don’t think I ever met anyone vacationing there.


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[Toadman]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/real...id=mailsignout

According to new data from the National Association of Home Builders, lumber prices have risen to average more than $600 per thousand board feet. That marks a nearly 80 percent increase since April 2020.

[liv2ski]

Ideally rent until things chill. But ain’t nothing for rent either.

Right? But all the rentals disappeared in the last 6 months. I am not sure what happened.

[RootSkier]

How the fuck does Missoula get 4 million out of staters annually? Are they counting everyone stopping for gas on their way somewhere else?

Bloomberg is a shite site.

Yes. I-90 runs on the edge of town. Stopping for gas or Five Guys counts.

Other than that asinine number, it seems to check out. Shit is out of hand here. We have two professional salaries and it is hard to see how we could get in the game right now if we hadn't started years ago.

[Shredhead]

https://www.aspentimes.com/news/aspe...dy-this-month/

[liv2ski]

And on the flip side the cities are emptying out. I saw a picture of Manhattan yesterday all boarded up looking like a ghost town.

[Skidog]

And on the flip side the cities are emptying out. I saw a picture of Manhattan yesterday all boarded up looking like a ghost town.

A late 70s through mid 80s Manhattan is coming soon. Going to be ugly for a while again is my guess. Mass departure of people and small businesses. Crushed bar/restaurant scene, which is what the city was about. Crushed tourism. Crushed entertainment industry. Junkies taking over the streets already. Ahhh seedy NYC

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[Toadman]

Tip of the iceberg?

The delinquency rate for residential mortgages rose to 8.2% in the second quarter, up nearly 4 percentage points from the first quarter and the largest quarterly increase on record, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, a program used by many first-time buyers and those with lower incomes, saw their delinquency rate jump to almost 16% - the highest since the survey began more than four decades ago.

[rideit]

How could there be trouble?
The stock market is raging!

[rideit]

https://www.aspentimes.com/news/aspe...dy-this-month/

Slightly different, but there have been over 140 closings here this year so far over 2 million.
That’s kind of insane.

There are only around 500 houses for sale in the entire county.

[Toadman]

And on the flip side the cities are emptying out. I saw a picture of Manhattan yesterday all boarded up looking like a ghost town.

Well, the people of San Fran, REALLY want to get out of San Fran!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/real...id=mailsignout

[Kevo]

Could use some maggot advice RE: Real Estate.

My company has given guidance that we won't be back in the office until June 2021 at the earliest. Many people at the exec level are bailing on NY and Denver/Boulder and are living at their second homes for the next year. My boss in Boulder is renting out his house for $10k a month (would have rented for ~$4k pre covid) and moving his family to a beach location in the Caribbean for the winter.

I can't stand the thought of spending another winter in the Front Range, so I pulled the trigger and I'm under contract for a house in Teton Valley. I'll be moving up at the end of September.

I'm buying the Teton Valley house as a second home and contemplating what to do with my primary house in CO. I bought for a little more than $500k 4 years ago. Two houses on my street have sold in the past month- one for $730k and one for $795k. My house would likely sell somewhere inbetween those two prices if I were to sell today.

If I were to rent my CO house I'd make roughly $700 more than the mortgage payment if I manage it myself or roughly $400 more than the mortgage payment if renting through a property manager. FWIW, friends who own rental in CO have been bitching about new laws that prevent evictions.

I really like my CO house and it would be nice to have in the event that my company forced people back into an office. That said, I'm sitting on roughly $300k+ in equity in my CO house.

As best I can tell, I have three options-

-Keep CO house empty, continue to pay mortgage. Hire snow removal and lascape service. Pay my neighbor in beer to check in on the house from time to time. This option costs me ~15% of my income in comparison to the next option, which is....

-Rent out CO house, probably through a property manager to avoid hassles. Maybe come out even after accounting for maintance. Have a good house to come back to, but at the risk of the RE market tanking in the meantime. If SHTF from a job standpoint, I'd be better able to secure employment in CO.

-Sell CO house. Walk away with ~$270k in tax free cash after accounting for transactional costs. Conservatively invest that money in the meantime and use it as a downpayment on another house or pay for a rental house/apartment should I need to come back to CO next year. If RE goes down, I made the right decision. If RE continues to be insane, selling would have been a bad call. Also, selling CO house will make me an Idaho tax resident, which will end up costing me additional $.

Thoughts? Considerations? Anything I'm missing?