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  1. #7551
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    Quote Originally Posted by LesterSmoove View Post
    QFT

    not saying we should get rid of firestops or allow people to build high rises with flammable cladding, but governments talk about affordable housing and talk about government subsidizing expensive construction, while at the same time they throw up so many barriers to letting developers give people choices. there's reasonable code stuff, and then there's just a lot of legalistic bullshit and obstruction. plus zoning and opportunities for distant neighbors to tie up the process with lawsuits or complaints.
    You've got to change zoning/allow development before property values skyrocket and the NIMBYs aka property owners take over government. Once government is run solely for the property owners aka San Francisco/lots of CA its all over.

  2. #7552
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Right. I'm not being specific to time or place. Revoke flood insurance backed by our tax dollars, and trillions of dollars of RE value all along our coasts would be vaporized, as it should be.
    I just looked it up, the total cost all all Federal Flood Insurance programs is $30 bil/year. You would advocate saving that money but recognize that it would destroy trillions of dollars in property value. And as I said above there is some unknown (but certainly figure-outable) number of billions that would be lost in other taxes and wages.

    I would just say it's probably more nuanced than you seem to believe.

  3. #7553
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    41 million people live in a flood zone. Thats like 700 bucks a head. No way flood insurance is a net loss economically.
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  4. #7554
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    Quote Originally Posted by LesterSmoove View Post
    QFT

    not saying we should get rid of firestops or allow people to build high rises with flammable cladding, but governments talk about affordable housing and talk about government subsidizing expensive construction, while at the same time they throw up so many barriers to letting developers give people choices. there's reasonable code stuff, and then there's just a lot of legalistic bullshit and obstruction. plus zoning and opportunities for distant neighbors to tie up the process with lawsuits or complaints.
    sometimes gov't can't get out of their own way
    heard about a tax payer funded project that was just completed, usually they waive fees and endless other bs and taxes to cut down and costs even other crap like hauling trash to a gov't owned dump
    well the gov't who paid for the work didn't bother cutting any slack on any fees, it's kind of a joke a contractor paid the fees as usual, mark up the fees and charged them for it
    yes cheap housing can be built, but how safe and how well does it "blend in" with the existing

  5. #7555
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    phew, good thing those pesky foreign buyers are backing off of the US market
    I suspect a 10% decline in yuan has as much to do with slowdown as politics.

  6. #7556
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    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    sometimes gov't can't get out of their own way
    heard about a tax payer funded project that was just completed, usually they waive fees and endless other bs and taxes to cut down and costs even other crap like hauling trash to a gov't owned dump
    well the gov't who paid for the work didn't bother cutting any slack on any fees, it's kind of a joke a contractor paid the fees as usual, mark up the fees and charged them for it
    yes cheap housing can be built, but how safe and how well does it "blend in" with the existing
    That is actually kinda surprising. I've never heard of govt protects coming in cheap and getting hookups.

    Jackson gets to vote on a 2 million dollar pre-construction budget for a new courthouse. At least people get to vote on that one. I cannot fathom how they could even bullshit their way to a 2 million dollar number there.
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  7. #7557
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    There's no doubt that most coastal land would be undevelopable without Federal flood insurance (also a lot of inland property along rivers etc.). But the issue is somewhat complicated by the tax revenues government (mainly state and local) receives on that property,., which would essentially be zero if insurance was not available.

    Also there are the construction and other jobs supported by that development, and other jobs in things like tourism, etc., and the tax revenues generated by that. For example, every marina in the country would probably be out of business without insurance, and those jobs would go, and recreational boating and fishing would take a huge hit, and those are substantial industries in their own right. And that's just one thing off the top of my head, I'm sure there's plenty more.

    It's not quite as cut-and-dried as saying the Feds are giving away money. In the aggregate, is Federal flood insurance a good deal for the taxpayers? Probably not, but there are things on both sides of the ledger.
    But, it's also a pretty clearcut issue of welfare for the rich, because almost anybody who can afford to own or even get into the credit game buying a waterfront property is technically rich, because, you know, waterfront property. It's a vicious cycle that, I agree, has created a massive economy beyond just homeowners in these places, but, it's pretty absurd that we are living with that situation when millions have no health care and education is crumbling, but, some dude is sipping fine wine on the deck of his MacMansion with an awesome view, and that house wouldn't be there but for the trillions of insurance subsidies, highly restrictive zoning, and the trillions we use to support our financial industry that makes it all possible.

    Don't get me going about the utterly stupid Sisyphean process of replenishing beaches and dunes, that costs hundreds of billions, when one good northeaster just wipes it all away in a day.
    Last edited by Benny Profane; 07-17-2019 at 02:44 PM.

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  8. #7558
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    That is actually kinda surprising. I've never heard of govt protects coming in cheap and getting hookups.

    Jackson gets to vote on a 2 million dollar pre-construction budget for a new courthouse. At least people get to vote on that one. I cannot fathom how they could even bullshit their way to a 2 million dollar number there.
    lol that courthouse will never get built. no one cares except the govt and they'll never find money in the general fund for that. I hope. I will be very ashamed of our so-called community if we vote to piss away money when we have a perfectly fine courthouse right now.

    I really hate the rampant welfare for the rich that goes on in our government at all levels, but it's just not very practical to do anything about the flood insurance program now. maybe reforming it for new construction, but that's never going to happen. if you hit current beneficiaries of the flood program hard, they might not spend as much on other things that keep the economy flowing. the financial aspect is minimal; the bigger problem is that it encourages building in environmentally sensitive areas. if you feel it's morally wrong and want to stick it to the rich benny, you should become an advocate for outlawing defacto single family zoning and laugh as people build triplexes or larger in their neighborhood.

  9. #7559
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    Yup, I don't see that ever getting done either, I just laugh at the concept that they need 2 million bucks just to decide if they want to build a new courthouse or not. In that sense, calling it a pre-construction budget was being generous.
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  10. #7560
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    I suspect a 10% decline in yuan has as much to do with slowdown as politics.
    Same goes for the second biggest group and CAD.

  11. #7561
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    My hood is still moving along, but there is definitely more inventory coming online.

    I bought for $518k 2.5 years ago in Golden, CO. A house down the street with the same floor plan as mine, but without an additional bedroom and bathroom in the basement (4 bed, 3.5 bath vs 3 bed, 2.5 bath) went on the market last month at $660k and sold in 3 days at $725k.

    Seems ridiculous. I definitely didn't expect my street to break the $700k mark this year.

  12. #7562
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    I know, the rates/maps reset in NH like 5 years or so ago and all these properties got hit with large, but I believe phased in increases in their premiums. I was referring to Benny's point in the sense that they already got their flood insurance premium hit.
    NH was just reassessed and a bunch of people are trying to go to court over it. It is supposedly going to be implemented this year.

    This is from the report about the coast specifically which is 13 miles +/- long.

    *By 2045, more than $645 million worth of residential property (based on today’s values) is at risk of chronic flooding. The homes that would face this flooding at the end of the century are currently worth about $2.4 billion.

    *Homes at risk in 2045 currently contribute about $9 million in annual property tax revenue to their municipalities.

    And the idiot drops out of the Paris agreement and pull back on 83 environmental rules...22 on air pollution. Makes sense.

  13. #7563
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    Quote Originally Posted by LesterSmoove View Post
    lol that courthouse will never get built. no one cares except the govt and they'll never find money in the general fund for that. I hope. I will be very ashamed of our so-called community if we vote to piss away money when we have a perfectly fine courthouse right now.

    I really hate the rampant welfare for the rich that goes on in our government at all levels, but it's just not very practical to do anything about the flood insurance program now. maybe reforming it for new construction, but that's never going to happen. if you hit current beneficiaries of the flood program hard, they might not spend as much on other things that keep the economy flowing. the financial aspect is minimal; the bigger problem is that it encourages building in environmentally sensitive areas. if you feel it's morally wrong and want to stick it to the rich benny, you should become an advocate for outlawing defacto single family zoning and laugh as people build triplexes or larger in their neighborhood.
    Well, that's very cynical of you. So, the economy next to the water slowly collapses. Do you think that money isn't mobile? It will just go elsewhere, and the services will follow. In the NYC region, you'd probably see the Catskills return to former glory, and Vermont would rock, too.

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  14. #7564
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackstraw View Post
    NH was just reassessed and a bunch of people are trying to go to court over it. It is supposedly going to be implemented this year.

    This is from the report about the coast specifically which is 13 miles +/- long.

    *By 2045, more than $645 million worth of residential property (based on today’s values) is at risk of chronic flooding. The homes that would face this flooding at the end of the century are currently worth about $2.4 billion.

    *Homes at risk in 2045 currently contribute about $9 million in annual property tax revenue to their municipalities.

    And the idiot drops out of the Paris agreement and pull back on 83 environmental rules...22 on air pollution. Makes sense.
    This coast is one of the most studied thanks to UNH. There's no way they win on the new flood maps. They even did a full impact study for all coastal communities with coastline - lots are pretty fucked, but I'm sure plenty have their heads in the sand on it.

  15. #7565
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    If there was ever a time to get rid of NFiP or greatly scale down the program, it is now. Insurance has never been cheaper. This is largely a result of money pouring in from hedge funds and institutional investors. The reinsurance market is completely flooded with cash. The whole, “no one writes flood policies” is a myth. No one writes flood policies until the government policy is exhausted, I.e $500k for a building and $250k on contents. The NFIP is a joke in how it is administrated and how much they pay the brokers who place policies that are usually compulsory under the terms of the owners loan. Additionally the coverage sucks, acv only, no replacement cost.

    ETA that many NFIP policy holders are actually being charged reasonable or even high premiums. Problem is that these policy holders are subsidizing the 2-3% of the worst risks.
    Last edited by neufox47; 07-17-2019 at 08:58 PM.

  16. #7566
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  17. #7567
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    https://apple.news/AK0vMhxTkTWOj8pLz6EQIDw

    The U.S. housing finance system is worse off today than it was on the cusp of the 2008 financial crisis, Republican lawmakers and Trump administration officials warned on Tuesday.
    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-controlled enterprises that stand behind half the country's mortgages, are way too undercapitalized, and lending standards have actually deteriorated since the housing crash, the officials said.
    “This whole thing is a car wreck. It’s a dumpster fire,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on the White House’s proposal to overhaul the way the nation finances mortgages.
    “We spent $190 billion of taxpayer money, and we’re in worse shape,” he said, referring to the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were seized by Treasury a decade ago to stave off catastrophic losses in the crisis.
    “I will tell you as a safety-and-soundness regulator, when I look at a $3 trillion institution that is leveraged 1,000 to 1, it keeps me up at night,” Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria, the companies’ regulator, told the committee.
    “If we do nothing, this is going to end very badly,” he added.
    What’s more, Fannie and Freddie are less equipped for a downturn now than they were before the crisis, Senate Banking Chairman Mike o (R-Idaho) said. Before 2008, he said, the companies held 45 cents in capital for every $100 in mortgages; today that figure is 19 cents.

  18. #7568
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    The republicans just want to help the banks and private lenders more than they already have.


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  19. #7569
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Striker View Post
    You'd think they'd move the car and the grill.

  20. #7570
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    car is on cinderblocks, and new grill is part of the insurance scam?

  21. #7571
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    Worse than 2008? Ahhhh doubt itttt
    Decisions Decisions

  22. #7572
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Worse than 2008? Ahhhh doubt itttt
    Very difficult to imagine a big pull back of 30%+ on values without huge job losses or banks failing right and left. In a recession, with continued low inventories for sale, maybe flat to a little lower in the next 12 months, but not by much.

    CA did just pass state wide rent control, so that will likely slow down investors buying anything with a tenant in it.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  23. #7573
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    30-50% in the luxury stuff out here seems pretty reasonable. The closer you get to being affordable at median HH income the more resilient the market will be. Pretty important in terms of expectation mgmt. And in Boston or major NE cities there's a much deeper pool of buyers higher up the value spectrum. >600k market seems very slow here while >1M market seems dead. Things still move briskly sub 400k though. Charles Dickens market.

  24. #7574
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Very difficult to imagine a big pull back of 30%+ on values without huge job losses or banks failing right and left. In a recession, with continued low inventories for sale, maybe flat to a little lower in the next 12 months, but not by much.

    CA did just pass state wide rent control, so that will likely slow down investors buying anything with a tenant in it.
    I’m sensing you’re hoping it doesn’t rather than looking objectively. Why in a recession would there be low inventory? I’d speculate inventory going up like last time with people trying to cash a depreciating asset- or simply cannot afford the payment on their underwater home.

    Cushy redundant tech jobs at 250k a pop will start vaporizing when companies don’t receive the earnings. Multiply that by other industries that will be affected. Then household frivolous spending drastically slows and it’s a house of cards..

  25. #7575
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    I’ve read quite a bit in here might have missed it but didn’t recall seeing this.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ousing-market/

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