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  1. #7526
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    Quote Originally Posted by CascadeLuke View Post
    Cushy redundant tech jobs at 250k a pop will start vaporizing when companies don’t receive the earnings. Multiply that by other industries that will be affected. Then household frivolous spending drastically slows and it’s a house of cards..
    So what? Do you think the people living in Seattle want to move somewhere else? Where? Repeat it for any of the booming west coast & sunbelt metro areas you want.

    It should be clear by now that the '08 crash wasn't the same everywhere. Someplaces like CT never recovered because those cushy finance jobs never came back to CT and there was nothing else in CT and noone really wanted to live in CT (see masses of people on TGR who grew up in CT and moved away and get offended by you calling it a shithole). Other places the dip was momentary (Seattle, Bay Area) because they are still desirable places to live. Desires change over time of course, but do you see a mass migration of the US population back to the rust belt?

  2. #7527
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    Quote Originally Posted by CascadeLuke View Post
    Did you see credit default swaps coming?
    Yup. When I saw all the banks roll out the Liar Loans in 2003/04 I closed my mortgage company down, as I didn't want to risk huge buy backs on fraudulent origination's. That never happened, buybacks that is, so I should of stayed open. Instead I went to work for a bank as a wholesale AE. During my interview I told the VP that when all those loans blew up in a few years, I would handle their REOs for them. She gave me a horrified look and said "don't ever say that to anyone at the bank".
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  3. #7528
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    Housing prices are mildly dumb everywhere, but I have yet to hear of weird products driving it, more a lot of cash from investors.
    If anything, a few VCs and F100s will collapse, but there's plenty of healthy balance sheets out there.

  4. #7529
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    So what? Do you think the people living in Seattle want to move somewhere else? Where? Repeat it for any of the booming west coast & sunbelt metro areas you want.

    It should be clear by now that the '08 crash wasn't the same everywhere. Someplaces like CT never recovered because those cushy finance jobs never came back to CT and there was nothing else in CT and noone really wanted to live in CT (see masses of people on TGR who grew up in CT and moved away and get offended by you calling it a shithole). Other places the dip was momentary (Seattle, Bay Area) because they are still desirable places to live. Desires change over time of course, but do you see a mass migration of the US population back to the rust belt?
    I don't know. If there is a tech implosion , a lot of those people are suddenly going to get real tired of living in a place where it rains all the time, because then they'll have time to go outside, being jobless and all.

  5. #7530
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    There will be some localised crashes, including California (where it actually happens a lot), Denver, and maybe ski towns. The national market won't crash. It did that ten years ago.

  6. #7531
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    There will be some localised crashes, including California (where it actually happens a lot), Denver, and maybe ski towns. The national market won't crash. It did that ten years ago.
    Denver won't crash until folks stop moving out from CA. They still think homes in Denver are cheap (which they are comparatively speaking).

  7. #7532
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    The recession will bring on localised crashes, like in 91.

  8. #7533
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    I don't know. If there is a tech implosion , a lot of those people are suddenly going to get real tired of living in a place where it rains all the time, because then they'll have time to go outside, being jobless and all.
    It doesn’t rain there all the time anymore. #thanksglobalwarming

  9. #7534
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    There will be some localised crashes, including California (where it actually happens a lot), Denver, and maybe ski towns. The national market won't crash. It did that ten years ago.
    Huh. When's the last time you were in a ski town? Explain please

    Sent from my SM-J737V using TGR Forums mobile app

  10. #7535
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    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    It doesn’t rain there all the time anymore. #thanksglobalwarming
    The next rainforest is gonna be New England.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  11. #7536
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    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    Huh. When's the last time you were in a ski town? Explain please

    Sent from my SM-J737V using TGR Forums mobile app
    That shit ain't going up forever.

  12. #7537
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    It is here, there is only 3% of developable land in the county, and we have cool summers and lots of fresh water.

    I guess the Supernova could put an end to it.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  13. #7538
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    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    Huh. When's the last time you were in a ski town? Explain please

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    Millennials can’t afford a primary residence. How they gonna by a 2nd home?
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  14. #7539
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    Quote Originally Posted by ColMan View Post
    Denver won't crash until folks stop moving out from CA. They still think homes in Denver are cheap (which they are comparatively speaking).
    yeah, it's totally California's fault says someone on the board with dozens of people from the midwest/eastcoast that have moved to CO for every one person from CA.

  15. #7540
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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    It is here, there is only 3% of developable land in the county, and we have cool summers and lots of fresh water.

    I guess the Supernova could put an end to it.
    Well, Jackson, yeah, supply and demand for a place that has two spectacular national parks. Which is good, god forbid it turns into Summit County.

    You are sitting on a big flat volcano, though.

  16. #7541
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    You would know.
    It happens, amigo. Boston and NY in 91, including the NE ski market, California maybe four times. 08 is in everybody's memory because it was nearly nationwide, which was a first. Actually, international, including disasters in Ireland and Spain at the time. Now Denver wasn't hit hard because it didn't bubble. Well, now it is. Guess whats next? After all the jobs go away.

  17. #7542
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    Millennials can’t afford a primary residence. How they gonna by a 2nd home?
    every day a 1000 new trust fund millenials are minted the average Joe ain't ski town material

    Sent from my SM-J737V using TGR Forums mobile app

  18. #7543
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    Most of NE’s residential is selling above prior highs, often way above in higher end communities. Greater Boston (metro west, wtf?), Southern NH, Southern ME, RI (Providence is bumpin) etc, urban areas where about 75% of the population lives. I suppose I’m not certain about CT, but that isn’t really NE anyways. VT slow as usual but no one lives there. Whether or not it’s overvalued, shrug
    Last edited by Self Jupiter; 09-12-2019 at 09:58 PM.

  19. #7544
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    I agree just giving you shit. Denver is overpriced imo relative to what it offers. Same for Seattle & SF.
    Compared to what? Bumfuck secondary and tertiary communitys in the west? I've seen zero evidence those secondary and tertiary communitys are willing to change to sustainably grow and maintain a comparative QOL advantage. They aren't just doubling down on the planning fuckups of California and Oregon and Washington they are largely tripling down on them. Bozeman? An expensive vis a vis wages sprawling suburban hole in the mountains proximate to increasingly crowded recreation. Ugh.

    It's great to think of a future where all those trust fund millennials fight over the same dozen awesome ski towns in the west that are overcrowded and unsustainable with little developable land within a 30 minute drive forcing people to the flatland dumps of Idaho or Colorado so they can fund fastfred and rideits retirement .... but is that what the millenials want? Are those FIREs going to be able to keep going?

  20. #7545
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    outside of nature access to mountains & desert SLC is a dump. with comparatively low salary. if by "active" you mean "likes mountains" yes, it's still better. I see "likes mountains" as a declining pool of people. it's TGR so everyone talks their book (see rideit).

    the data is there to show the shakeout from california is lower income "lower skill" workers. the "best and brightest" are still going there, and Seattle, etc. etc. so if you think things are going to change it's far more than just a shuffling of seats.

    not that I'm a huge fan of SF or Seattle these days, just pointing out that if you think they are going to crash there are huge economic implications across the US because our internet overlords have been the best and biggest and brightest sources of $ growth.

  21. #7546
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    Greater Boston metro up to Portland is above prior highs as the tech/robotics/AI boom has poured money into Boston and Portland finally has more companies with decent jobs. It will correct, but based on incomes in southern NH, I'd only expect a 5-10% correction in NH.

  22. #7547
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    Maybe now that we are pretty much past peak unicorn with this stupid Wework thing walking around with it's pants around it's ankles and Uber and Lyft licking their wounds, the tech money won't be flowing so freely.

  23. #7548
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    As someone who has lived in/around both, I would live in the greater SLC area over greater Seattle every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Western Washington blows. Shit weather(and FTR, it isn't the rain that bothers me, it's that there aren't any fucking seasons out here. Three weeks of high pressure doesn't constitute summer, just like 6 months of 50 degrees and drizzly isn't winter by any sane definition. The weather is damn near the same year round; it never gets hot, it never gets cold, it's fucking garbage), criminally overcrowded, regressive state taxes, entitled, aloof residents, shitty drivers, the list goes on.

    As far as day-to-day livability goes, it's neck and neck with New Jersey. Congestion is rapidly making this area unlivable, and I have a 4 mile commute. Despite hellish, human-choked reality which confronts everyone who lives here anytime they venture outside the confines of their homes, every planner and city council member across the region is lining up to give a nice sloppy rimjob to any developer who wants to shoehorn more housing into a region that is already critically exceeded its human carrying capacity.

    "Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of cancer," and western Washington has a terminal case.

  24. #7549
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    Hahaha dude you need some pussy. What a miserable guy. Every time I see you post it’s bitching and mostly about the PNW.
    Go the fuck home then
    Are dumb or just like to be miserable?

  25. #7550
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    it's all about supply and demand right now denver is mellowing out because all the people who can afford a 500k shit box suburban ranch home have bought there is not too many people left that can buy that kind of house

    metro denver isn't going to drop in price it's just going to reset to a more sustainable level

    housing costs, even that 30 year old shit box are driven by today's contruction costs which no one has figured out how to offshore so labor and material costs are high and only getting higher
    I love the statement we are going to build some "affordable housing" well thats a line a shit, due to buiding codes construction costs of multifamily is through the roof the days of building a cheap eightplex are long gone, you can't just have a nice open attic where the flames from apt b can race over to apartment e

    mountain town real estate has been driven by the short term rental craze, what is the profit of buying a unit, creating a short term rental, getting to use it and making money
    they have been using this bullshit line for forty years up here, "there is a limited amount of developable land" well that's total bullshit, land swaps with the gov't are all to common, look at the dog shit they are throwing up around keystone
    summit county colorado will double in the number of units and beds, sure not everyone is going to get a single family home on a nice lot, but density is what it's all about if you think it's bad today it's only going to get worse

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