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  1. #7526
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    The SALT thing has definitely hurt the high tax states, but the market wasn't exactly hot since the 08 crash and recession, besides the oligarch funded luxury stuff in Manhattan, Hamptons, and a few other trophy areas. I live in a pretty upscale Fairfield County town, and I know that many properties are underwater from the peak or just treading water. Of course, the people who are hurting are the ones who bought in or at near the peak, or borrowed at those valuations. So, yeah, a lot can afford to sell and move if they have good equity, although Miami may be a wash in the trade - they've seen a nice boom since bad times.

    As far as that high tax thing, well, you get what you pay for. Parents drop the big bucks here for RE because schools, schools, schools, and, of course, they're close to their high paying jobs. Very high paying jobs. They're not going to pack up and move to shithole USA where teachers make less than baristas, and they may have to be a barista, too, if there are even any Starbucks near.

    Let's do some livin'
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  2. #7527
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    I'm building a new house, should move in mid-December. Which means the market will crash in January. Only saving grace is that I'll be able to convert the construction loan to a low rate fixed.

  3. #7528
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/12/ch...d-major-metro/

    Great charts. No wonder the people who live in the west think that the market is booming again. Some people are still underwater from 08 in the east.
    No thinking about it. It IS booming out West. $462k will get you in to a fixer upper 3 bed 2 bath 1,700 sq ft home in a so-so area of town here in Central Oregon. New construction every where you look. Cali retires and Seattilites coming down and paying cash on $800k plus homes is the norm.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  4. #7529
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iowagriz View Post
    I'm building a new house, should move in mid-December. Which means the market will crash in January. Only saving grace is that I'll be able to convert the construction loan to a low rate fixed.
    Better hope it doesn’t crash in November!

  5. #7530
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    No thinking about it. It IS booming out West. $462k will get you in to a fixer upper 3 bed 2 bath 1,700 sq ft home in a so-so area of town here in Central Oregon. New construction every where you look. Cali retires and Seattilites coming down and paying cash on $800k plus homes is the norm.
    Yup, was watching a show last night with Mrs. L2S and a couple from San Fran paid $750k cash for a nice home in Boise. Suggested to the wife we do the same. She told me to fuck off.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  6. #7531
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    well, the bright side is that this bumper crop of cash-paying cali retirees will start dying off or going to long-term assisted care facilities in 20 years. hopefully their kids are cash strapped and choose to sell quick.

  7. #7532
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    Quote Originally Posted by LesterSmoove View Post
    well, the bright side is that this bumper crop of cash-paying cali retirees will start dying off or going to long-term assisted care facilities in 20 years. hopefully their kids are cash strapped and choose to sell quick.
    You're actually on to something there. A generation that isn't buying a first home will never get to trading in equity for dying in Boise.

    Let's do some livin'
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  8. #7533
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    Seriously, that's my theory, although I'm way too old to benefit. The boomers are dying in place, as all old people do, at a certain point. Moving is hard, expensive, and sort of impossible if you have no money.
    What is the largest asset most Americans can lay claim to? Their home, or, for the lucky ones, homes. They really didn't save much otherwise, except for a small percentage of the diligent. Trillions were erased from the value of those assets in the great sucking of the home equity loan craze, and even though that was ten years ago, those loans were probably mostly 30 year, some 15. A lot of kids are being surprised daily when they learn the old Macmansion is more liability than cash cow at the estate meetings. The last thing they need is more debt, unless they're moving in. So, Zillow!

    Let's do some livin'
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  9. #7534
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    Quote Originally Posted by LesterSmoove View Post
    well, the bright side is that this bumper crop of cash-paying cali retirees will start dying off or going to long-term assisted care facilities in 20 years. hopefully their kids are cash strapped and choose to sell quick.
    Wut? So once they die there will be less people looking to live in those areas so prices will come down? What about the people who are 45 today and living in Cali, Seattle, Portland, etc?

    My neighbor has a sweet piece of land with an incredible view. He’s going to die soon and I’ve considered buying the land and building on it. But in my area new homes run from $350-$1000 a sq ft. No way I’m paying $1M plus for a 3,000 sq ft home on top of a $400k lot, well maybe if my compensation triples Is consider it. But when construction of new homes is that expensive, it makes existing homes that much more valuable. Simplistically, either demand for homes has to dry up, or construction costs need to drop if home prices are going to fall.

  10. #7535
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    Prices will drop, but, the whole point is that it will take a long time. Probably twenty plus years. The boomers built this pyramid scheme over thirty years, and It's probably topping off, because they're now pretty old. The first Boomer turned 65 on 01-01-11, and the last one will turn 65 on 01-01 31. 73 million of them. So, you're going to have to wait until maybe 2040 for most to clear out. They aren't going anywhere, and they don't spend a lot (that's an even more macro event, which I believe will keep inflation low for a decade, maybe two). As I said, they'll die in place, one by one, and the kids will finally cash in, taking a split, or move in.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  11. #7536
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    Finally, a basement of their very own.

  12. #7537
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    You act like proximity to the beach isn't worth something. Nevermind all those school districts rank among the best in the state.

    If you came around and said they overpaid by 100k, sure that's believable, but 410k? Please.

    There haven't been houses in seacoast NH for 185 since like the 80's unless you count Rockingham, Epping, or its a trailer, which well, they all suck. Even the inbreds in Seabrook get over 200 for a crack shack.
    Ok, I'll give you 300k for the lot because it's a corner with conservation land across the street..i.e. marsh. They walk around the marsh 1/2 mile to the beach. They overpaid by 295k. I know a lot about construction and I know the realtor as well. We both laughed at the prices of all the houses. It's just dumb. The beachfront stuff is so people with fu money can claim NH as residency. They just sold a 3 million dollar teardown next to Fullers old place...cash. Water damage so extensive it cannot be salvaged...because nobody lived there, like most of those places, and the pipes burst. But hey, when you sell your company for 45 million who cares. Hence, the divide and unaffordable housing plaguing this country. The divide is stronger than ever. But people like you (and I have no idea if you have a dime, nor do I care) think the tax cuts and trumptardness is the answer, but you're so wrong.

  13. #7538
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/12/ch...d-major-metro/

    Great charts. No wonder the people who live in the west think that the market is booming again. Some people are still underwater from 08 in the east.
    The N.Y. Fed released some economic data recently that showed the anemic growth in the tri-state area (ex-NYC) and it was abysmal. In one of the longest economic expansions in history, there are actually less workers in Fairfield County than there were a decade ago.
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  14. #7539
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    it's all about location as usual
    have some friends in buffalo ny of all places, they have been wanting to buy into a moderate/well priced neighborhood, property doesn't even go on the market, it all word of mouth an bidding wars when a house comes up for sale, they finally bought in that neighborhood, then they sold their old house in less than a week because it's in a desirable location, we are talking 250k - 350k

    was talking to someone else who had a suburban Chicago house for 30 years, they dumped it and moved to denver, 8,000 sq ft house in chicago sold for 700k, well below what they should/thought they could get, meanwhile their neighbors are all sitting on their overpriced homes desperate to sell and get top dollar, they pissed off a few neighbors by selling cheap, then she says they had a 30k a year property tax bill, wtf? that's enough to make anyone want to sell and move to texas

    meanwhile in mountain town usa, people are still desperate to overpay for some shit box condo that needs at least 50k in work to bring it up to "current mountain town luxury standards"

    oh-yeah and "affordable housing" I'm so sick of hearing that phrase. 30 years ago you could built a rat trap 4 plex 8 plex or more super cheap. But now that buildling codes and life safety issues all come into play big time it has pushed to cost of building sky high, if you didn't have to worry about egress, fire stops, fire alarms, stairways to code we could easily throw up shit box apartment complexes everywhere and housing would be afforable until the white trash kid playing with his moms lighter and crack pipe starts the place on fire

  15. #7540
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    The N.Y. Fed released some economic data recently that showed the anemic growth in the tri-state area (ex-NYC) and it was abysmal. In one of the longest economic expansions in history, there are actually less workers in Fairfield County than there were a decade ago.
    Well, that's good proof that this "economic expansion" isn't really an "economic expansion" for probably what is a large majority of Americans.

    Let's do some livin'
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  16. #7541
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    phew, good thing those pesky foreign buyers are backing off of the US market
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/fore...yers-flee.html

    the one thing shit-cago had going for it is an influx of affluent, educated, youngish people.

    curious what happens after the ongoing retail apocalypse is over - if you can get anything you want delivered to you in the burbs is that where people live? or do they cluster near other people because in person contact is a luxury good now? if the only things that survive are restaurants/bars/spas and gyms what differentiates a city?

  17. #7542
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post

    the one thing shit-cago had going for it is an influx of affluent, educated, youngish people.

    curious what happens after the ongoing retail apocalypse is over - if you can get anything you want delivered to you in the burbs is that where people live? or do they cluster near other people because in person contact is a luxury good now? if the only things that survive are restaurants/bars/spas and gyms what differentiates a city?
    how many young people are buying 5,000 sq ft homes with a 30k tax bill????

    and yeah, pretty much look at any city/suburb it's all pretty much the same just a different place. Denver like NYC has been whitewashed and bulldozed into chain stores, anything unique and different is gone

    people cluster next to like minded people who look the same as them out of safety and familiarization
    housing segregation is pretty standard for most of america
    most people don't even know their neighbors other than what they see on nextdoor and facebook
    unfortunately I know all my neighbors too well and some I'll hang out with others I avoid, like the acid casualty down the road

  18. #7543
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackstraw View Post
    Ok, I'll give you 300k for the lot because it's a corner with conservation land across the street..i.e. marsh. They walk around the marsh 1/2 mile to the beach. They overpaid by 295k. I know a lot about construction and I know the realtor as well. We both laughed at the prices of all the houses. It's just dumb. The beachfront stuff is so people with fu money can claim NH as residency. They just sold a 3 million dollar teardown next to Fullers old place...cash. Water damage so extensive it cannot be salvaged...because nobody lived there, like most of those places, and the pipes burst. But hey, when you sell your company for 45 million who cares. Hence, the divide and unaffordable housing plaguing this country. The divide is stronger than ever. But people like you (and I have no idea if you have a dime, nor do I care) think the tax cuts and trumptardness is the answer, but you're so wrong.
    Well that is quite the rant over a beach property in the only NE state with a low tax burden, with one of the best school districts in the state. I'll say it again, seacoast NH hasn't been cheap since the 80's, and even then it probably felt pricey. Just because you think its overpriced doesn't mean it isn't cheap as hell for a guy making a buck twenty with three kids 45 minutes south and looking for a tax break and getting out of Malden (which is apparently kinda expensive now also but is still Malden). Dude is going to make the 1500 a month mortgage difference between 300 and 595 just in cost of living, let alone the school and the beach.

    I wouldn't pay it either personally, but that doesn't mean plenty of other people will. I don't see how Trump has anything to do with this scenario. Beach property has been and will continue to be expensive for a place with a sea breeze, which personally smells crappy to me but whatever.
    Live Free or Die

  19. #7544
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    It will continue to be expensive as long as you and I and every other taxpayer subdidizes cheap insurance for the owners.

    Let's do some livin'
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  20. #7545
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    if the only things that survive are restaurants/bars/spas and gyms what differentiates a city?
    Answer: both quantity and quality of climbing gyms

  21. #7546
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    It will continue to be expensive as long as you and I and every other taxpayer subdidizes cheap insurance for the owners.
    The neck of the woods Jackstraw and I are talking about already got hosed on flood insurance rates after Irene I believe.

    Probably still subsidized though to an extent.
    Live Free or Die

  22. #7547
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    The neck of the woods Jackstraw and I are talking about already got hosed on flood insurance rates after Irene I believe.

    Probably still subsidized though to an extent.
    Virtually all flood insurance policies issued in the US are federally-subsidized NFIP policies.

  23. #7548
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dantheman View Post
    Virtually all flood insurance policies issued in the US are federally-subsidized NFIP policies.
    I know, the rates/maps reset in NH like 5 years or so ago and all these properties got hit with large, but I believe phased in increases in their premiums. I was referring to Benny's point in the sense that they already got their flood insurance premium hit.
    Live Free or Die

  24. #7549
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    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    it's all about location as usual

    oh-yeah and "affordable housing" I'm so sick of hearing that phrase. 30 years ago you could built a rat trap 4 plex 8 plex or more super cheap. But now that buildling codes and life safety issues all come into play big time it has pushed to cost of building sky high, if you didn't have to worry about egress, fire stops, fire alarms, stairways to code we could easily throw up shit box apartment complexes everywhere and housing would be afforable until the white trash kid playing with his moms lighter and crack pipe starts the place on fire
    QFT

    not saying we should get rid of firestops or allow people to build high rises with flammable cladding, but governments talk about affordable housing and talk about government subsidizing expensive construction, while at the same time they throw up so many barriers to letting developers give people choices. there's reasonable code stuff, and then there's just a lot of legalistic bullshit and obstruction. plus zoning and opportunities for distant neighbors to tie up the process with lawsuits or complaints.

  25. #7550
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    I know, the rates/maps reset in NH like 5 years or so ago and all these properties got hit with large, but I believe phased in increases in their premiums. I was referring to Benny's point in the sense that they already got their flood insurance premium hit.
    Whatever their new higher premiums are they're still far below the true cost of insuring those properties. Those places are uninsurable without federally subsidized policies.

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