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  1. #7501
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by wooley12 View Post
    And that would be good how? It is not the only way to enable increased profits.
    Where did I say it was good?

  2. #7502
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    Apr 2007
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    Gates of Hell
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    Quote Originally Posted by spanky View Post
    We’re neighbors. I work above the Victoria’s Secret. That store and the new Nike flagship on the other corner befuddle me as to how the renovation costs and rents can be covered.
    Howdy, neighbor. Small world. I'm next door @ 650.
    Going where the wind don't blow so strange
    Maybe on some high cold mountain range

  3. #7503
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    Aug 2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    So what is their growth rate? Are you just making stuff up?
    Chinese economic statistics are made up, I'm not making stuff up. What the real rate is is a matter of debate but nobody worth a damn thinks it's 6%. Not that it really matters, because it's somewhat irrelevant. Xi will not give in, the threat is existential for him and the ruling CCP and they aren't going to cave.

  4. #7504
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    Chinese economic statistics are made up, I'm not making stuff up. What the real rate is is a matter of debate but nobody worth a damn thinks it's 6%. Not that it really matters, because it's somewhat irrelevant. Xi will not give in, the threat is existential for him and the ruling CCP and they aren't going to cave.
    Who is "anyone worth a damn?" that's just hyperbole. You're fitting your own narrative as always and making it political; you sound like spook.

    How about World Bank as a reference.

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg

  5. #7505
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    Quote Originally Posted by MiCol View Post
    The things I see don't lend themselves to long term smooth sailing and it frightens me to thing I could get hung out to dry or stuck with some of my investments longer than I want to keep them thus tying up capital. I need to keep my cash working for me, yet the opportunity to create a return gets riskier and riskier and there seem to be no safe harbors for more than a 1-2% return. Anything else looks somewhat like rolling the dice. I am (oops edit for typo) NOT interested in long term investing with my small capital warchest.
    I hear ya & agree wholeheartedly on the lopsided nature of risk looking forward (much more downside risk than upside for housing, as an example). Just trying to temper your expectations with what I've learned. Equity markets are vulnerable to 87-style events right now as they're driven primarily by corporate buybacks and trend-following, rule-based funds. When volatility goes up liquidity leaves the system, leaving indexes vulnerable to dropping like a rock. Shit, markets went down 20% last fall when a few hedge funds had to exit the market. There wasn't enough liquidity there to cash them out without dropping so far. That is not healthy. What happens when all the boomers trying to time this cycle lose faith in Trump?

    To counter that risk there's a Fed and POTUS that are obsessed with massaging markets higher. They may fail but that is the game being played... drift up until the music stops & people flood the exits. Housing though is likely to be more gradual than stocks.

    Quote Originally Posted by MiCol View Post
    Guy: You were quoted as saying if someone gave you a million dollars you could produce $500,000 profit in a year. Outline exactly how you would go about doing that.....
    Yeah that's not something that can happen consistently when assets across the board are valued at such historical extremes. Much of the opportunity in the current business cycle was squeezed 10 years ago. Buffett has said many times on the record that good business are too expensive & that's why he's not buying. Reinforces the narrative of widespread overvaluation in asset markets.

  6. #7506
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Leadville, CO
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    4,138
    ^ good stuff and insights, thanks
    My Company: Made in Colorado SKi Clothing- check it out

    Last year for 'Threads for Shreds' jacket trade in program!
    www.freeridesystems.com
    20% Maggot Discount Code = 'MAGGOT20'

  7. #7507
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    Aug 2016
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    1,948
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    and making it political
    it's china, of course it's political. Now - here are the China shills (they regularly took Chinese cash) from Brookings telling you it's 1.7% lower than reported on average. "Relative to the official numbers, we estimate that GDPgrowth from 2008-2016 is 1.7 percentage points lower and the investment and savings rate in2016 is 7 percentage points lower"
    https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...ysis-China.pdf
    there's plenty more out there if you want, or not, I really don't GAF. you'll backfill for your own narrative of autofellation.

  8. #7508
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    Bears think China's flat or maybe contracting a bit. Their auto sales are down 20%+ YoY in late 2018 & early 2019, as an example of supporting evidence alongside recessionary tech spending in Asia.

    Educated bulls think China's growth is in the range of 2-4%, albeit heavily reliant on increasing leverage (which is very high to start with). And by educated bulls I mean macro portfolio managers.

  9. #7509
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    Feb 2009
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    On Vacation for the Duration
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    11,220
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Where did I say it was good?
    A lot of people say that be greed is good.
    Your opinion would add value to the post.
    A few people feel the rain. Most people just get wet.

  10. #7510
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    it's china, of course it's political. Now - here are the China shills (they regularly took Chinese cash) from Brookings telling you it's 1.7% lower than reported on average. "Relative to the official numbers, we estimate that GDPgrowth from 2008-2016 is 1.7 percentage points lower and the investment and savings rate in2016 is 7 percentage points lower"
    https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...ysis-China.pdf
    there's plenty more out there if you want, or not, I really don't GAF. you'll backfill for your own narrative of autofellation.
    Nice dodge. I said 6% and consensus is 6.6. If you take 1.7% from annual consensus what’s that 5%? Let’s meet in the middle at 5.5%. So you’re laughing about a generalization of .5% when my point was their 10y rate is trading at almost half their growth rate.

    Great work. Top notch! So smart and enlightening.

  11. #7511
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    Mar 2006
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    14,821

    Real Estate Crash thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    Bears think China's flat or maybe contracting a bit. Their auto sales are down 20%+ YoY in late 2018 & early 2019, as an example of supporting evidence alongside recessionary tech spending in Asia.

    Educated bulls think China's growth is in the range of 2-4%, albeit heavily reliant on increasing leverage (which is very high to start with). And by educated bulls I mean macro portfolio managers.
    2-4% real growth. Not nominal GDP.

    USA is goosed from tax cuts and fed. Not entirely different.



    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Last edited by 4matic; 05-20-2019 at 03:28 PM.

  12. #7512
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    This dude... has teh chutzpahs

    Kanodia, who came to the U.S. from India with next to nothing, is philosophical about the financial pressures. He said if he can’t find the right buyer, he’ll live in the house himself and sell his current home across the street, which he says could fetch over $20 million.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/22/cele...r-mansion.html

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  13. #7513
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    Feb 2014
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    I thought you left out the oceanfront view picture, but nope, it's 180 million and in Bel-Air.

  14. #7514
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    Dec 2009
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    The Mayonnaisium
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    6,948

  15. #7515
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    Dec 2016
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    In a van... down by the river
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    3,801
    WTF is wrong with rich people? They seem to be almost universally unbalanced.

  16. #7516
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    Aug 2006
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    Seems to be the most common fault of successful people is that they all think since they are amazing at one thing, they will be amazing at anything else they try.
    Live Free or Die

  17. #7517
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    Nov 2003
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    Joisey
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    Quote Originally Posted by St. Jerry View Post
    I could go for that. Next week?

    Who knew that TGR was a match-making site???
    Are you asking me out on a date? How about a 3-way with jgb?

    Dig Inn is good, but no place to sit.


    Quote Originally Posted by jgb@etree View Post
    Howdy, neighbor. Small world. I'm next door @ 650.
    Because rich has nothing to do with money.

  18. #7518
    Join Date
    Apr 2019
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    45
    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    Seems to be the most common fault of successful people is that they all think since they are amazing at one thing, they will be amazing at anything else they try.
    And they are more likely to be surrounded by sycophants who assure them constantly of their unimpeachable greatness.

  19. #7519
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
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    36,249
    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/12/ch...d-major-metro/

    Great charts. No wonder the people who live in the west think that the market is booming again. Some people are still underwater from 08 in the east.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  20. #7520
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    cow hampshire
    Posts
    4,311
    The market is starting to stagnate here. The multi-million dollar homes are selling for cash still, but the half-million to a million+ are slowing.

    I looked at a single-story 1400sqft cottage. Dirt crawl space, uninsulated foundation and floor, wall insulation "unknown", meaning none, shoddy little updated construction to make it appealing at the entrance and inside, no garage. $595 and it's under contract. It's a pos teardown worth maybe $185-200. Unreal. It's just dumb everywhere right now.

  21. #7521
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    Aug 2006
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    5,275
    I'm not saying the market isn't overheated, but there is no way people are overpaying by 225%, no matter how emotional they are about the property.
    Live Free or Die

  22. #7522
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    What I see in SLC is a shortage of affordable & surplus of homes >600 or 700k. Olympus Cove, for example, has a lot of inventory right now that doesn't seem to be moving relative to quick churn of anything sub-400k east of 700E.

  23. #7523
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    Dec 2002
    Location
    cow hampshire
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    4,311
    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    I'm not saying the market isn't overheated, but there is no way people are overpaying by 225%, no matter how emotional they are about the property.
    Yeah they are. People are dumb and do not understand simple math.

    I just looked and that cottage is under contract. That person is getting fucked. Curbside / walk-in appeal is there along with proximity to the beach. That blinds people.

  24. #7524
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    Aug 2006
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    5,275
    Quote Originally Posted by jackstraw View Post
    Yeah they are. People are dumb and do not understand simple math.

    I just looked and that cottage is under contract. That person is getting fucked. Curbside / walk-in appeal is there along with proximity to the beach. That blinds people.
    You act like proximity to the beach isn't worth something. Nevermind all those school districts rank among the best in the state.

    If you came around and said they overpaid by 100k, sure that's believable, but 410k? Please.

    There haven't been houses in seacoast NH for 185 since like the 80's unless you count Rockingham, Epping, or its a trailer, which well, they all suck. Even the inbreds in Seabrook get over 200 for a crack shack.
    Live Free or Die

  25. #7525
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    The Queen City North Carolina
    Posts
    879
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/12/ch...d-major-metro/

    Great charts. No wonder the people who live in the west think that the market is booming again. Some people are still underwater from 08 in the east.
    I read in the Wall Street Journal that NY has lost, even accounting for births and immigration over 1 million residents in the past decade.
    A staggering 452K moved out last year. Yes I realize some moved in, but thats a lot of home grown educated talent dispersing.
    https://www.democratandchronicle.com...te/3616563002/

    I don't want to get into a pissing match with you about Florida or any other southern state, but when you go back to the crippling recession 10 years ago, very high property taxes, cap the SALT at 10k and then lose 1 million people, I wouldn't think outside of a few select enclaves it's much of a buyers market. I would think its the same in places like VT and MA outside of Boston which does a good job attracting young people.
    Probably sucks if your dream was to sell and cash out and move to Florida.

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