Results 7,451 to 7,475 of 27098
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
-
05-20-2019, 01:18 PM #7451
-
05-20-2019, 01:18 PM #7452
-
05-20-2019, 01:26 PM #7453jgb@etree Guest
-
05-20-2019, 01:28 PM #7454
Chinese economic statistics are made up, I'm not making stuff up. What the real rate is is a matter of debate but nobody worth a damn thinks it's 6%. Not that it really matters, because it's somewhat irrelevant. Xi will not give in, the threat is existential for him and the ruling CCP and they aren't going to cave.
-
05-20-2019, 01:31 PM #7455
Who is "anyone worth a damn?" that's just hyperbole. You're fitting your own narrative as always and making it political; you sound like spook.
How about World Bank as a reference.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg
-
05-20-2019, 01:42 PM #7456Jacket Cobbler
- Join Date
- Nov 2007
- Location
- 8,290'
- Posts
- 5,358
^ good stuff and insights, thanks
www.freeridesystems.com
ski & ride jackets made in colorado
maggot discount code TGR20
ok we'll come up with a solution by then makers....
-
05-20-2019, 01:50 PM #7457
it's china, of course it's political. Now - here are the China shills (they regularly took Chinese cash) from Brookings telling you it's 1.7% lower than reported on average. "Relative to the official numbers, we estimate that GDPgrowth from 2008-2016 is 1.7 percentage points lower and the investment and savings rate in2016 is 7 percentage points lower"
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...ysis-China.pdf
there's plenty more out there if you want, or not, I really don't GAF. you'll backfill for your own narrative of autofellation.
-
05-20-2019, 02:48 PM #7458
-
05-20-2019, 02:57 PM #7459
Nice dodge. I said 6% and consensus is 6.6. If you take 1.7% from annual consensus what’s that 5%? Let’s meet in the middle at 5.5%. So you’re laughing about a generalization of .5% when my point was their 10y rate is trading at almost half their growth rate.
Great work. Top notch! So smart and enlightening.
-
05-20-2019, 03:04 PM #7460
Real Estate Crash thread
2-4% real growth. Not nominal GDP.
USA is goosed from tax cuts and fed. Not entirely different.
Sent from my iPhone using TGR ForumsLast edited by 4matic; 05-20-2019 at 03:28 PM.
-
05-22-2019, 02:27 PM #7461Registered User
- Join Date
- Feb 2014
- Posts
- 2,508
I thought you left out the oceanfront view picture, but nope, it's 180 million and in Bel-Air.
-
05-22-2019, 02:31 PM #7462
-
05-22-2019, 02:35 PM #7463
WTF is wrong with rich people? They seem to be almost universally unbalanced.
-
05-22-2019, 02:40 PM #7464
Seems to be the most common fault of successful people is that they all think since they are amazing at one thing, they will be amazing at anything else they try.
Live Free or Die
-
05-24-2019, 08:00 PM #7465
-
05-24-2019, 08:12 PM #7466Registered User
- Join Date
- Apr 2019
- Location
- MA
- Posts
- 121
-
07-16-2019, 06:34 AM #7467
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/12/ch...d-major-metro/
Great charts. No wonder the people who live in the west think that the market is booming again. Some people are still underwater from 08 in the east.
-
07-16-2019, 09:45 AM #7468
The market is starting to stagnate here. The multi-million dollar homes are selling for cash still, but the half-million to a million+ are slowing.
I looked at a single-story 1400sqft cottage. Dirt crawl space, uninsulated foundation and floor, wall insulation "unknown", meaning none, shoddy little updated construction to make it appealing at the entrance and inside, no garage. $595 and it's under contract. It's a pos teardown worth maybe $185-200. Unreal. It's just dumb everywhere right now.
-
07-16-2019, 11:08 AM #7469
I'm not saying the market isn't overheated, but there is no way people are overpaying by 225%, no matter how emotional they are about the property.
Live Free or Die
-
07-16-2019, 11:33 AM #7470
-
07-16-2019, 11:45 AM #7471
You act like proximity to the beach isn't worth something. Nevermind all those school districts rank among the best in the state.
If you came around and said they overpaid by 100k, sure that's believable, but 410k? Please.
There haven't been houses in seacoast NH for 185 since like the 80's unless you count Rockingham, Epping, or its a trailer, which well, they all suck. Even the inbreds in Seabrook get over 200 for a crack shack.Live Free or Die
-
07-16-2019, 12:08 PM #7472
I read in the Wall Street Journal that NY has lost, even accounting for births and immigration over 1 million residents in the past decade.
A staggering 452K moved out last year. Yes I realize some moved in, but thats a lot of home grown educated talent dispersing.
https://www.democratandchronicle.com...te/3616563002/
I don't want to get into a pissing match with you about Florida or any other southern state, but when you go back to the crippling recession 10 years ago, very high property taxes, cap the SALT at 10k and then lose 1 million people, I wouldn't think outside of a few select enclaves it's much of a buyers market. I would think its the same in places like VT and MA outside of Boston which does a good job attracting young people.
Probably sucks if your dream was to sell and cash out and move to Florida.
-
07-16-2019, 12:23 PM #7473
The SALT thing has definitely hurt the high tax states, but the market wasn't exactly hot since the 08 crash and recession, besides the oligarch funded luxury stuff in Manhattan, Hamptons, and a few other trophy areas. I live in a pretty upscale Fairfield County town, and I know that many properties are underwater from the peak or just treading water. Of course, the people who are hurting are the ones who bought in or at near the peak, or borrowed at those valuations. So, yeah, a lot can afford to sell and move if they have good equity, although Miami may be a wash in the trade - they've seen a nice boom since bad times.
As far as that high tax thing, well, you get what you pay for. Parents drop the big bucks here for RE because schools, schools, schools, and, of course, they're close to their high paying jobs. Very high paying jobs. They're not going to pack up and move to shithole USA where teachers make less than baristas, and they may have to be a barista, too, if there are even any Starbucks near.
-
07-16-2019, 12:46 PM #7474Registered User
- Join Date
- Dec 2009
- Posts
- 1,703
I'm building a new house, should move in mid-December. Which means the market will crash in January. Only saving grace is that I'll be able to convert the construction loan to a low rate fixed.
-
07-16-2019, 01:37 PM #7475
No thinking about it. It IS booming out West. $462k will get you in to a fixer upper 3 bed 2 bath 1,700 sq ft home in a so-so area of town here in Central Oregon. New construction every where you look. Cali retires and Seattilites coming down and paying cash on $800k plus homes is the norm.
"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
Bookmarks