Real Estate Crash thread

[iceman]

the median number of days homes were on the market declined, is what that signifies. Slower sales and the number goes up, and vice versa. It's a measure of sales activity.

[Self Jupiter]

(Urban) Boston still quite hot up to around $1.3m, but not as hot as the last 5 spring markets. More financed deals are appraising at contract value. The upper-end has cooled for a couple years but prices are stable. The shift is more noticeable in the suburbs but it’s still very active. It remains generally difficult to buy.

[skaredshtles]

In this case I think its
Taxes, Government, location

So... we're in agreement.

[Elkhound Odin]

the median number of days homes were on the market declined, is what that signifies. Slower sales and the number goes up, and vice versa. It's a measure of sales activity.

I get that the graph shows that sales are slowing, but it doesn’t make sense with negative days on market.



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[Benny Profane]

In this case I think its
Taxes, Government, location

Moron. Location means your kids are going to a decent school, not prison for drug dealing or stocking shelves at Walmart. So, taxes for decent schools.

[Mazderati]

In the small area of Boston I follow, more properties seem to have been listed for sale this year than in recent years past. Most properties are still under contract in one to two days. Price per square foot well above $1000 and often into the $1,200 to $1,300 range at this point.

[skaredshtles]

I get that the graph shows that sales are slowing, but it doesn’t make sense with negative days on market.

https://www.rrcc.edu/catalogs/18-19/...ics-gt-ma1.htm

HTH.

[Name Redacted]

I get that the graph shows that sales are slowing, but it doesn’t make sense with negative days on market.

It is days on market compared to the median, which is represented as zero, but not necessarily zero.

[Kinnikinnick]

Most recent sign of a possible downturn in RE:

People around here are saying that RE never goes down around here.

Hah


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[Name Redacted]

National figures show you how easy it is to use YoY deltas to flag trend as opposed to simple values or even MoM data. It mitigates seasonal impact & shows a rolling picture of market strength over time.

MoM rate of change... not much to glean
Attachment 279888

Absolute value... blech
Attachment 279886

YoY rate of change.... voila!
Attachment 279889

Was that a mom joke for RE nerds?

[VTeton]

(Urban) Boston still quite hot up to around $1.3m, but not as hot as the last 5 spring markets. More financed deals are appraising at contract value. The upper-end has cooled for a couple years but prices are stable. The shift is more noticeable in the suburbs but it’s still very active. It remains generally difficult to buy.

I'm under that price point and expect it to be under contract by Monday. I think a lot of peole realized they dont need 6,000 sq ft homes. Agent came through yesterday with clients sayin that single millenials are bitching about places being too small (3k sq ft homes) asking where gym, movie theater will go. I was kinda shocked by that comment.

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[skaredshtles]

I'm under that price point and expect it to be under contract by Monday. I think a lot of peole realized they dont need 6,000 sq ft homes.

Mine is a bit over 2000 sq and I think it's way too fucking big.

[Benny Profane]

Most recent sign of a possible downturn in RE:

People around here are saying that RE never goes down around here.

Hah


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When your landscaper tells you that it's a great time to buy, and he's buying a second home for investment, sell and run.

[CascadeLuke]

I’ve commented before on my feeling about a market shift. While I still think it’s on the horizon, had a quick sale in the mid 1Ms; new construction & multiple offers. After a 3 yr project we sold in days. Contributing factors were double the yard of comparable new development and a tandem 2+2 garage. We’re happy to see that on the right place there is still competition in Seattle.

A couple of our offers were what I feel are the norm right now, 2% under list at the 1M range.
These people in my case missed out on a unique 4 car garage and huge level yard (5k ft of sod) — over $20-25k and will be hard pressed to find that again.
To add a little more color: during the open house the buyers pool were
70% late 20 yr old to 30 somethings with what felt like and comments of- his & her tech incomes
15% in their 40’s moving up
10-15% Couples in their 50’s+ down sizing out of the huge fam house and rolling over mega equity and often all cash

[Ted Striker]

10-15% Couples in their 50’s+ down sizing out of the huge fam house and rolling over mega equity and often all cash

We're getting a big spill-off of that up here in Bham, except it's a much higher percentage and age. 60ish, all cash, full price (and over) offers, even some sight-unseen. When my wife asks where they're moving from, it's generally Seattle or California. The 20s-30s demo is getting pushed out beyond city limits if they want single/detached/w yard. Fixers are getting scooped up by flippers the minute they hit the MLS, and come back on a few months later at $500+

[Self Jupiter]

Pretty similar demos on this $870k 2/2 condo in Brookline I’m helping a colleague unload. Higher concentration of down-sizers, and the younger demos seem like DINK pros with at least one spouse in finance. Been on market 26 days, up to this point we had one offer to date that wasn’t accepted. Today we have 2 offers in hand and it seems at least another on the way. Boing

[VTeton]

I'm under that price point and expect it to be under contract by Monday. I think a lot of peole realized they dont need 6,000 sq ft homes. Agent came through yesterday with clients sayin that single millenials are bitching about places being too small (3k sq ft homes) asking where gym, movie theater will go. I was kinda shocked by that comment.

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Got strong cash offer from first OH, a second one last night and fingers crossed, a shit ton of offers today before deadline.

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[Nasreddin Hoja]

When your landscaper tells you that it's a great time to buy, and he's buying a second home for investment, sell and run.

I never thought of it quite like so but it sounds like good advice. When n00b investors enter the market, it is nearly played.

Here in nyc, the downturn is sector-wise. High end condos and store fronts are getting beat, but mid range homes are still ok.

[liv2ski]

I think the tax change limiting a property tax write off to $10k has hurt the high end stuff. I was told the 30% of the town I live in sold last year. Likely due to the tax changes limiting write offs and consequentially, the cost of ownership in a slowing, maybe declining market.
Stuff sure sits for sale forever if over $2M and once you get to $5M, forget about it.

[RootSkier]

I think there is also a decent chance that to keep things solvent, a law will be passed to allow personal debt to be passed down to children. I give it 15-20 years before that happens.

I realize I am like 5 months late and there is a lot of dumb shit in this thread, but this has to be the dumbest.

[AdironRider]

Wasn't mortgage interest deduction capped over 1 or 2 mill even prior to Trump tax cuts?

[Dantheman]

Wasn't mortgage interest deduction capped over 1 or 2 mill even prior to Trump tax cuts?

liv2ski is talking about the cap on SALT.

[AdironRider]

Oh right, brain fart on my end.

I still think it isn't the primary driver. SALT wasn't a credit and even in places like New York, with 3+ percent effective tax rates on property, you are talking about 20k net cost, and that requires a home valuation of 3.5 million. 20k isn't shit when your household income is approaching a mill a year to afford that place.

[liv2ski]

Think about it for a moment. Your family income is $1M a year, so you have a primary and a couple of 2nd homes. The new tax bill limits deductible interest to a $750k loan amount and $10k for SALT. Your property tax bills are closer to $80k a year and you have $2M in mortgages that you can't fully deduct anymore. Ya, I think that will make a few people sell the 2nd home of which my hood has plenty of.

[schuss]

Heh, if anyone wants a 2BR in Brookline for 800k, my buddy is moving out west.