Real Estate Crash thread

**Kevo** · 12-14-2018, 09:07 AM

Originally Posted by concretejungle

About as easy as selling semi-luxury vacations to lazy can't do the research mountain bikers.

Wait are you an appraiser these days? Honestly, it seems like a sweet gig.

The appraiser who appraised my house last week seemed to be pretty stoked on life. He owns his company, told me he sets his own (very flexible) schedule that allows he and his wife to travel every month. He made $625 in less than 30 minutes at my house.

In the mountains he'd be making $1500 in those 30 minutes.

**Foggy_Goggles** · 12-14-2018, 10:06 AM

In the mountains he'd be making $1500 in those 30 minutes.

Like grossing $20K a week in this county. I friend of mine manages a title company that had 46 closings "in one day" a month or so ago. One day, it will all come crashing down again and they will be 6 deep applying for jobs to sell vacuums door to door just like the rest of the "inventory".

**Name Redacted** · 12-14-2018, 10:16 AM

2 years ago when we refied we were told it could be a problem getting an appraiser by closing. Luckily it wasn't but the appraiser did say she was booked full for a few months. I'd guess that has slowed because inventory is so low in our hood that not much has been moving, along with the fact that fewer people are refinancing due to higher interest rates. I'd forecasting that as soon as there's a hint of prices going down, or rates going down (probably not but who knows), it'll free up a large amount of inventory that has been held up by the continuous rise of home prices and there'll be a shortage of appraisers again. Boom and bust, just like everything in RE.

**liv2ski** · 12-14-2018, 11:10 AM

Being an appraiser is a pretty sweet gig these days, but you have to know an appraiser who is willing to apprentice you to get your hundreds of hours of training in and that is tough.
If doing a refinance, why not call the agent that sold you the home and ask for comps prior to the appraiser getting there? Then you have a better basis to compare the finished appraisal comps to what your agent provided, if you think it came in low.

**Name Redacted** · 12-14-2018, 11:32 AM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Being an appraiser is a pretty sweet gig these days, but you have to know an appraiser who is willing to apprentice you to get your hundreds of hours of training in and that is tough.
If doing a refinance, why not call the agent that sold you the home and ask for comps prior to the appraiser getting there? Then you have a better basis to compare the finished appraisal comps to what your agent provided, if you think it came in low.

You can contest the appraisal after the fact by providing comps then.

**Conundrum** · 12-14-2018, 12:45 PM

When I refi'd 30 to 15 three years ago, my randomly assigned appraiser showed up and happened to be a dude I just met on a ski trip the month before. He asked me where I needed to be and when he was done he said I better get a new roof on my house in the next six months or his nuts would be in a sling but I hit my number. Like anything, there's seems to be an amount of nuance with what appraisers do. I did get a new roof because I needed one and didn't want to screw the guy if anyone checked his work.

**Self Jupiter** · 12-14-2018, 02:03 PM

Originally Posted by shredgnar

You can contest the appraisal after the fact by providing comps then.

Which IME is a steep uphill road to take but of course ymmv

**BFD** · 12-14-2018, 07:03 PM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Being an appraiser is a pretty sweet gig these days, but you have to know an appraiser who is willing to apprentice you to get your hundreds of hours of training in and that is tough.
If doing a refinance, why not call the agent that sold you the home and ask for comps prior to the appraiser getting there? Then you have a better basis to compare the finished appraisal comps to what your agent provided, if you think it came in low.

the apprentice thing I would think gives them pretty good control of the market. The appraiser that comes to Cordova is an ex Olympian x country racer. I have seen him in and out in under 30 minutes. Depending on the season grabs his running shoes or ski boots and heads for the mountains. Seems like a pretty good gig. Gets back to Anchorage grabs the same comparables they have been using for the last 10 years and is done.

**shroom** · 12-14-2018, 09:22 PM

too much influence for a nonstandard input in the market

autocorrelation and group think even if it’s not dirty

**iceman** · 12-14-2018, 10:45 PM

Most of it is or at least should be data-driven. Comps, Sq. ft., number of bathrooms, etc. For a while after '08 appraisers were pretty handcuffed compared to what had been the case before. I haven't kept up with it over the past 5 years or so and no doubt things may have loosened but I doubt it's as lax as it used to be.

**liv2ski** · 12-15-2018, 03:13 AM

I would agree with Iceman's take. Also, you give the appraiser the agent provided comps when they come out to do the appraisal, not after the fact.

**Stu Gotz** · 12-15-2018, 08:30 PM

Town appraisal came back 10% lower than previous. Mill rates going up!

**iceman** · 12-15-2018, 08:56 PM

Friend of mine has been trying to sell his parents house in Wilton for well over a year now, he's asking maybe 60% of the initial listing price now and still no takers. It's kind of a weird house, nice but not for everyone for sure, but still. Rough market around there by all accounts.

**Benny Profane** · 12-23-2018, 09:33 AM

10% of homes are still "seriously" underwater. I'll bet millions more are slightly underwater or treading water.

https://www.marketplace.org/2018/12/...earned-housing

**Kevo** · 12-23-2018, 11:00 AM

^Fuck, did you listen to the marketplace story? The couple they profile lost their townhome in a shitty part if Denver in the recession, then went back to school to reinvent themselves. They are now 37 with a 14 year old and a 9 year old and are living off a teacher salary while renting in Denver with $600k in student loan debt hung around their necks.

How the hell did we as a society allow underprivileged, undereducated people to take out $600k in student loans to become low income workers? That family is fucked for generations now since the kids have no hope of escaping their own debt prison when they undoubtedly go to college. I think there is also a decent chance that to keep things solvent, a law will be passed to allow personal debt to be passed down to children. I give it 15-20 years before that happens.

**liv2ski** · 12-23-2018, 11:12 AM

There are some condos in Mammoth that sold for about $1.2M in 06/07 and are now on the market for about mid $800k. So still at least 20% down from when they were last sold. Pretty much everything else there is back to 07 highs, which is remarkable after much of it was down 60%-65% by 2013.
Coastal CA has gone ballistic since 2013, but I get how parts of the country without the weather or jobs are still way behind.

**Benny Profane** · 12-23-2018, 12:38 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

^Fuck, did you listen to the marketplace story? The couple they profile lost their townhome in a shitty part if Denver in the recession, then went back to school to reinvent themselves. They are now 37 with a 14 year old and a 9 year old and are living off a teacher salary while renting in Denver with $600k in student loan debt hung around their necks.

How the hell did we as a society allow underprivileged, undereducated people to take out $600k in student loans to become low income workers? That family is fucked for generations now since the kids have no hope of escaping their own debt prison when they undoubtedly go to college. I think there is also a decent chance that to keep things solvent, a law will be passed to allow personal debt to be passed down to children. I give it 15-20 years before that happens.

Yeah, right. I get pissed when I hear from so many that we've recovered, the economy is great, what's the problem. There are millions of people who will take 2008 to their graves, and their kids lives will be fucked, too, because they lived with this debt all their lives, too. I live in a condo complex in one of the wealthier towns in a very wealthy county in CT., and there are a ton of people here in the complex way underwater and it's not getting better. But, there are homes all around me in the same boat. It's bad. But, at least my homies have good jobs and other assets that compensate, somewhat. They'll never retire, though.

As far as that couple, how fucked can you be that you were doing ok with payments until the 08 crash, and then get nailed on an adjustable rate mortgage when interest rates go to zero?? Jezuz.

**wolfelot** · 12-23-2018, 04:00 PM

From the article:

“Owning a home is the primary way families build wealth to secure their retirement and pass on money to their children, which means the decline in homeownership could have effects that last for generations.”

Really? Let’s round up to $225k as the median home value in the USA. Let’s round down to just 2 kids per family. Subtract 6% of 225k to sell and you get $211.5 left. Then divide by 2 and you get $105,750 for each kid. $105,750 is nice to have, but isn’t too dramatic. A 4% safe withdrawal rate per month on that is about $352. That will come in handy, but isn’t going to dramatically alter the inheritor’s lifestyle. For many that money will be gone in five years whether well-spent or not.

**wolfelot** · 12-23-2018, 04:17 PM

And $600k in student loan debt to become teachers for the couple in that article? I don’t think they left the front range so how is that even possible given the schools there? Irresponsible on their part and the parties giving the money.

**4matic** · 12-23-2018, 04:18 PM

Could be they havent been paying and it’s mostly deferred interest.

**wolfelot** · 12-23-2018, 04:28 PM

Originally Posted by MCS5280

Don't you need to subtract all the interest you paid to the bank over the loan?

Ha you are right, but the kids didn’t pay the interest. I also forgot to consider that mom and dad may owe a ton on the house as well.

**Lev** · 01-26-2019, 07:51 PM

Prbly could start a new thread on the topic, but I'll toss this up here.

Anyone here have any experience with owning a mtn condo and doing the part time Airbnb/VRBO thing? Wifey and I are looking to having something for us maybe 8-10 nights per month during winter/summer. Looking in CO.

So far research has shown that we likely would get a third of the mortgage covered/HOA. I'm curious if anyone with a little more experience there could chime in.

**dunfree** · 01-26-2019, 10:18 PM

Originally Posted by wolfelot

And $600k in student loan debt to become teachers for the couple in that article? I don’t think they left the front range so how is that even possible given the schools there? Irresponsible on their part and the parties giving the money.

you can/could get fed student loans for up to the "cost of attendance" which was a number put out by the school. Even if someone else was paying the tuition (GI Bill, scholarships, whatever). Some out of work people during the great recession chose to go to school and use loans to live on; this is the shitty "safety net" the US has.

From a financial perspective there's nothing irresponsible by the people giving out the loans - the bankruptcy reform acts of 1976 & 2005 made student loans practically undischargeable in bankruptcy. That debt will be there forever.

Tieing this back to the housing market - one study (a Fed bank maybe? cna't remember) pointed to student loan indebtedness as one of the principles reasons for millenials not entering the housing market.

edit: didn't realize this post was over a month old.

**goldenboy** · 01-27-2019, 02:08 PM

Originally Posted by Lev

Prbly could start a new thread on the topic, but I'll toss this up here.

Anyone here have any experience with owning a mtn condo and doing the part time Airbnb/VRBO thing? Wifey and I are looking to having something for us maybe 8-10 nights per month during winter/summer. Looking in CO.

So far research has shown that we likely would get a third of the mortgage covered/HOA. I'm curious if anyone with a little more experience there could chime in.

Talk to an agent wherever you're looking to buy- they should be able to get you rental histories of any condos you're interested in. If you're staying there that often (especially weekends and holidays), I would be surprised if you're covering that much, but I guess you never know. At the end of the day, it really depends on the property, as well as management (i.e do you self manage and schedule cleaners, etc yourself, or do you let someone else do it for 20-50%?)

**Lev** · 01-27-2019, 02:16 PM

Originally Posted by goldenboy

Talk to an agent wherever you're looking to buy- they should be able to get you rental histories of any condos you're interested in. If you're staying there that often (especially weekends and holidays), I would be surprised if you're covering that much, but I guess you never know. At the end of the day, it really depends on the property, as well as management (i.e do you self manage and schedule cleaners, etc yourself, or do you let someone else do it for 20-50%?)

I agree. I reached out to a couple so far and have found a little info. My wife and I are mostly weekday warriors. I try to avoid Summit like the plague on holidays and most weekends. Figured there were a few mags in similar situation and wanted to see how much headache it is. Driving back and forth from Denver to the mtns got a little more challenging this year with a kiddo.