Real Estate Crash thread

[Name Redacted]

It is a stark contrast to my area, where there are not enough employees to fill jobs, we need more HB1 visas, young people starting their own businesses, I don't care much about the NFL's political position. But our housing and rentals are up and moving up. 1000sf condos are about only thing under $500,000. 1 bedroom rents at $1600/mo. And this is down-valley, where the worker bees live.

I bought a foreclosure in 2013, then another last year. 3 rentals now between the 2 properties, positive cash flow and things keep appreciating. I'm always looking, but not real enthusiastic with the current trends. But I was worried we were at the top last year. I also was worried stocks would tank...so no one knows. Luckily I didn't pull anything out of RE or stocks over the past year. Trump has been great for people with assets. No one knows where we go from here.

We just bought over in your area too (Avon). Might be top of the market but needed a place for the wife to stay as she got a job over there and is tired of commuting. We are keeping our place in Summit too. Probably rent the place over there out over weekends and holidays when she isn't using it. We should grab a beer sometime when I'm over there.

[WTF is dat]

I'm 2 weeks from being in my fifties and 28 years from paying off my home.

Jesus Christ Danno I hope your plan is to sell the house once the kid is 18 for boulder $$$ and downsize somewhere reasonable

[skaredshtles]

Jesus Christ Danno I hope your plan is to sell the house once the kid is 18 for boulder $$$ and downsize somewhere reasonable

This is our plan.

Of course, we won't be selling for Boulder $$$.

[Danno]

Jesus Christ Danno I hope your plan is to sell the house once the kid is 18 for boulder $$$ and downsize somewhere reasonable

That is absolutely the retirement plan. I have refi-ed numerous times, and while each one made perfect financial sense (my first loan was an 80/15/5, with the 80 being an I/O loan and the 15 having a 10 or 15 year balloon payment), they have the result of me being 2 years in on the loan even though I have owned for 12. C'est la vie. Still have a shit-ton of equity.

[4matic]

Bay Area sees slowest September for real estate in three years

Home sales are down both month-over-month and year-over-year across the Bay, according to new data released by CoreLogic. In fact, this was the area’s slowest September for real estate sales in three years.

In San Francisco, only 369 homes sold in the month of September, down 25.3 percent from August, 2017 sales. It’s also 32.5 percent fewer homes than sold in September of 2016.

[smmokan]

We just bought over in your area too (Avon). Might be top of the market but needed a place for the wife to stay as she got a job over there and is tired of commuting. We are keeping our place in Summit too. Probably rent the place over there out over weekends and holidays when she isn't using it. We should grab a beer sometime when I'm over there.

My wife and I just bought land in Eagle and will start building a house in the spring.... we should all have a beer sometime and go for a ride. We'll be in the Boulder area until June, but are moving out there before July 1st.

[Danno]

My wife and I just bought land in Eagle and will start building a house in the spring.... we should all have a beer sometime and go for a ride. We'll be in the Boulder area until June, but are moving out there before July 1st.

So. Jealous.

[homebrewd]

Prices like CA, but CO incomes.

It blows me away how expensive Longmont is getting, especially since incomes there are pretty average.

We bought ours in Lontucky last September and the Zillow estimate has gone up almost 100K from what we paid. I realize that isn’t realistic for its current condition but our neighbor 2 down just sold his for $298K.

The city has done a great job improving amenities and the introduction of the citywide fiber internet will continue to make it attractive for tech biz.


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[Kevo]

We bought ours in Lontucky last September and the Zillow estimate has gone up almost 100K from what we paid. I realize that isn’t realistic for its current condition but our neighbor 2 down just sold his for $298K.

The city has done a great job improving amenities and the introduction of the citywide fiber internet will continue to make it attractive for tech biz.


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Interesting. I used to work in Longmont and it was OK. West side of town has good road biking at least.

You guys did great with that muni fiber. Really hoping Golden moves forward with a similar plan after our vote last year.

Looked up some demographic info on Golden. Turns out 20% of families earn more than $200k per year as of 2015 and I'd bet that most people now moving into single family homes here earn that much, so maybe we are primed for real estate price growth.

We're in a decent location for commuting and we have some trails and climbing and kayaking.

That said, I predicted doom and gloom for year before buying so who knows.

[Benny Profane]

I'm 2 weeks from being in my fifties and 28 years from paying off my home.

Thus is the root of a lot of problems in our economy. You're one of millions, stuck. Trillions in HELOCs were taken out a little over ten years ago, and that's only a little over one third of the way there. Most, or, many, are underwater, too. I'm convinced that's why inventory is so low in many places.

[Benny Profane]

All markets pop at some point, BUT in my 58 years on this planet, I have only seen them always inflate higher with time. That said, good luck timing the market.

We recently went through some media nostalgia bullshit about the crash of '87, since it was the thirtieth anniversary. Of lot of doom and gloom, especially since so many are trying to convince us that we're in a similar bubble now. I hardly heard a soul tell me that the market bounced like a little rubber ball, and it was back to the races in months. A glitch, a little storm. Like '08, an event some people, especially old people, are blaming for their poverty. "I lost it all, boo Hoo, now I'm living in an RV and working Amazon center jobs." That's stupid. You did one of two things. Either you had no money in the market in the first place, because, like most Americans of the time, you didn't save shit, and you're just bullshitting, or, you sold all of your equities at the worst possible time, when the market was at its bottom, and put it all into zero percent bonds. Dumbass. Probably the same people who are buying now, at its most expensive. Or only buy lottery tickets when the jackpot hits 50 mil and beyond.

[neufox47]

Thus is the root of a lot of problems in our economy. You're one of millions, stuck. Trillions in HELOCs were taken out a little over ten years ago, and that's only a little over one third of the way there. Most, or, many, are underwater, too. I'm convinced that's why inventory is so low in many places.

You think many or most houses bought 10 years ago are underwater? What? Jesus christ Benny, don't let facts get in the way of a good rant. Tell us more about how being a terminal renter was such a great financial move for you.

I'm currently debating buying a place in the sierra foothills. Worried we may be near the top but this property is pretty unique and relatively cheap. 14 acres on top of a hill with top notch views of the sierras and the valley. 25 minute drive to the office. House is extremely well constructed but small (3br 2bth 1800 sq ft) and dated. Property isn't expensive but we'd need to put a sizeable addition on in the future in addition to renovating the current square footage. Likely sinking another 300-400k into it to make it our long term home. Decisions decisions.

[fastfred]

I visited my older brother's new home in Muscatine, IA last month, from my down-valley home in the shadow of Vail. Despite owning a beautiful home, he and his wife both in good jobs, just having a baby, he was complaining about everything. A very Trump-like view of the world. No jobs because the Mexicans are taking them all, town is collapsing, kids these days are shitheads, NFL has too many flags and disrespectful for players to kneel.

It is a stark contrast to my area, where there are not enough employees to fill jobs, we need more HB1 visas, young people starting their own businesses, I don't care much about the NFL's political position. But our housing and rentals are up and moving up. 1000sf condos are about only thing under $500,000. 1 bedroom rents at $1600/mo. And this is down-valley, where the worker bees live.

.

interesting, well said and spot on

living in a mountain town bubble myself, you wonder what is really wrong with people, I suppose it's easier to blame others and point fingers instead of figuring dealing with your own shit

back to real estate: I wish I could resay what my buddy the realtor said, he really put the drive up in prices and the short term rental market correlation into perspective a few weeks ago, it was spot on, but these short term rental people and their investment pipe dreams have really fucked up prices and inventory in mountain towns, if the shit does hit the fan, they are all going to be holding a bag if tourists don't show up, the prices some of these butt fucks are paying are full on stupid you wonder what they are thinking or not thinking

[Kevo]

interesting, well said and spot on

living in a mountain town bubble myself, you wonder what is really wrong with people, I suppose it's easier to blame others and point fingers instead of figuring dealing with your own shit

back to real estate: I wish I could resay what my buddy the realtor said, he really put the drive up in prices and the short term rental market correlation into perspective a few weeks ago, it was spot on, but these short term rental people and their investment pipe dreams have really fucked up prices and inventory in mountain towns, if the shit does hit the fan, they are all going to be holding a bag if tourists don't show up, the prices some of these butt fucks are paying are full on stupid you wonder what they are thinking or not thinking

Have a coworker that bought a six bed, five bath house in Keystone. He makes twice as much as the yearly mortgage payment off Air BNB and VRBO and his family has a free ski mansion to use whenever they want.

He's run me through the numbers and it sounds legit. I've been (very casually) contemplating buying a 3 BR 2 BA in Mt Crested Butte and doing the same thing.

[Benny Profane]

Have a coworker that bought a six bed, five bath house in Keystone. He makes twice as much as the yearly mortgage payment off Air BNB and VRBO and his family has a free ski mansion to use whenever they want.

He's run me through the numbers and it sounds legit. I've been (very casually) contemplating buying a 3 BR 2 BA in Mt Crested Butte and doing the same thing.

He doesn't have a "free ski mansion to use anytime they want" if they have make the nut renting it out all the time. It's one or the other.

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[Benny Profane]

You think many or most houses bought 10 years ago are underwater? What? Jesus christ Benny, don't let facts get in the way of a good rant. Tell us more about how being a terminal renter was such a great financial move for you.

I'm currently debating buying a place in the sierra foothills. Worried we may be near the top but this property is pretty unique and relatively cheap. 14 acres on top of a hill with top notch views of the sierras and the valley. 25 minute drive to the office. House is extremely well constructed but small (3br 2bth 1800 sq ft) and dated. Property isn't expensive but we'd need to put a sizeable addition on in the future in addition to renovating the current square footage. Likely sinking another 300-400k into it to make it our long term home. Decisions decisions.

Your reading comprehension is lacking. I was talking about HELOCs, and equity extraction through refinancing. Different animal. The numbers aren't as easily available as price indexes, but at least trillions were cashed out of the American home market in the decade before the crash. Those people signed up for a reset of their obligations in life, got suckered into you can have it all now because the market is only going up mentality, wouldn't you love to finally own a Porsche? Or, on a more practical note, they had to do it to pay for junior's incredibly expensive education they didn't save for. Either way, they extended a loan period their parents celebrated the ending of in their fifties, to almost their grave time. There's millions of people out there like that, mostly in later ages. The gen xers got sucked in the market of first timers during the frenzy, and they're really the most screwed. They'll never retire.
I don't know where you live, maybe it's California or Denver or Manhattan or Miami or some other hot market, but, no way the housing market has appreciated enough to cover all that debt the way the people who took those loans thought it would turn out. They may not be underwater, but, they're close, which isn't enough to justify a sale, if it's possible. So, they keep on keeping on and stay put. But, the market is still absurd in most places. Our economy will never grow if millions and millions of young people are carrying thousands of student debt into adulthood and then look at a housing market that needs six figure down payments in markets with jobs. That's just wrong, and won't last. I know I'm talking to the entitled, privileged 1% of TGR, with plenty of mommy and daddy cash to back them up, but, the rest of the world is still hurting, and it ain't getting any better. If things don't change, Republicans, robots, offshoring, and the Internet will result in many less solid paying jobs in ten years. It won't stop. And this bubble will deflate.

I love th second part of your post. Like you have any worries that the 99% have. I'm talking to a wall of cluelessness. But, go ahead, build in the stupid zone. Have fun.

[SkiBall]

He doesn't have a "free ski mansion to use anytime they want" if they have make the nut renting it out all the time. It's one or the other.

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I would think they could block out a few days every once in awhile and still be fine if everything is close to stated.

[Kevo]

He doesn't have a "free ski mansion to use anytime they want" if they have make the nut renting it out all the time. It's one or the other.

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If only he had control over the dates that he was renting the place...

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[fastfred]

Have a coworker that bought a six bed, five bath house in Keystone. He makes twice as much as the yearly mortgage payment off Air BNB and VRBO and his family has a free ski mansion to use whenever they want.

He's run me through the numbers and it sounds legit. I've been (very casually) contemplating buying a 3 BR 2 BA in Mt Crested Butte and doing the same thing.

the numbers are legit I don't doubt that

but the next 2009 rolls around and the tourists aren't showing up they aren't paying 1k a night to stay in the mcmansion who paying the mortgage then

I deal with these short term rental owners all the time, 80% of them are the biggest dooshes out there, god forbid they lose out on a single night of rental income, greedy mother fuckers in my book, super greedy

Summit county gov't should stick their fist up short term renters asses, but the county is run by a bunch of pussies, $5,000.00 yearly registration fee and tax the shit out of them, we need a real rooms and meals tax up here

[Kevo]

the numbers are legit I don't doubt that

but the next 2009 rolls around and the tourists aren't showing up they aren't paying 1k a night to stay in the mcmansion who paying the mortgage then

I deal with these short term rental owners all the time, 80% of them are the biggest dooshes out there, god forbid they lose out on a single night of rental income, greedy mother fuckers in my book, super greedy

Summit county gov't should stick their fist up short term renters asses, but the county is run by a bunch of pussies, $5,000.00 yearly registration fee and tax the shit out of them, we need a real rooms and meals tax up here

Seems like the local governments are just like Vail resorts. Nobody gives a shit about the community of mostly low wage locals living in a mountain town. Who cares if tall tee bros get forced out of summit and have to drive from Kremling to get to thier shitty lifty of restaurant job? So long as people are willing to move from Kansas and Texas to do those jobs and live in squalor 3 bros to a bedroom 60 miles away, the resort and real estate business churn money.

Short term rentals mean more lift ticket sales, more restaurant meals, more ski school, more CME rides and more property taxes as RE prices go up.

Seems to me that there aren't too many legit mountain town communities left in the US.

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[SkiBall]

I guess at least renting these 2nd(3rd-umpteeth?) homes at least brings some money in. See a lot of places around that are dark most of the year. Just an investment that they use a week or two/year.

[Name Redacted]

Seems like the local governments are just like Vail resorts. Nobody gives a shit about the community of mostly low wage locals living in a mountain town. Who cares if tall tee bros get forced out of summit and have to drive from Kremling to get to thier shitty lifty of restaurant job? So long as people are willing to move from Kansas and Texas to do those jobs and live in squalor 3 bros to a bedroom 60 miles away, the resort and real estate business churn money.

Short term rentals mean more lift ticket sales, more restaurant meals, more ski school, more CME rides and more property taxes as RE prices go up.

Seems to me that there aren't too many legit mountain town communities left in the US.

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Not true. Many of these towns are actively trying to provide affordable housing. Many are also regulating, licensing, and taxing STR's. It just takes time as it is reacting to the market. The resorts are also trying to build more housing for employees. It is a work in progress but it is happening.

I read an article about Whistler the other day. They started instituting these kind of actions many years ago, proactively. They are ahead of the curve in the battle and they are one of the only ones. The rest are just playing catch up. Problem is, many of these things were slated to be put into action 10 years ago but then the crash happened and they all got put on the back burner till now.

[Benny Profane]

I guess at least renting these 2nd(3rd-umpteeth?) homes at least brings some money in. See a lot of places around that are dark most of the year. Just an investment that they use a week or two/year.

They're the people who can afford to use the thing anytime they want. And they're getting a good tax dodge on top of the investment.

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[smmokan]

Have a coworker that bought a six bed, five bath house in Keystone. He makes twice as much as the yearly mortgage payment off Air BNB and VRBO and his family has a free ski mansion to use whenever they want.

He's run me through the numbers and it sounds legit. I've been (very casually) contemplating buying a 3 BR 2 BA in Mt Crested Butte and doing the same thing.

You should probably look into the issues Crested Butte is dealing with right now.

[Kevo]

You should probably look into the issues Crested Butte is dealing with right now.

Go on...

I know the resort has had issues for a long time. Been thinking that there is a good chance it will be bought by Aspen or Vail and then built up.

What else is going on?