Real Estate Crash thread

[liv2ski]

I just read today the average national "On the Market Time" is down to 3 weeks, which is a all time low. Reading the comments section, it sounds like lower priced homes (for an area) are selling super fast to achieve this average. The place my daughter bought in July was off the market in 10 days.
In my hood average is more like 6 months, as the prices are up there.

[Kevo]

If Zillow is to be believed, my house is up $93k since I bought it a year ago. Very limited inventory where I live in Golden.

Boulder where Danno is located is a totally different market. There is more inventory, but it is 75% more expensive and a huge amount of demand is speculative buying in advance of Google's new campus opening up.

I still think prices are stupidly high in the CO Front Range. Glad I finally bought though, at least for now.

[smmokan]

Market's still good here, but definitely slowing down as compared to 2015-16.

Out in Niwot and Longmont, inventory is way down. We closed on our house month, for way more than any home in the immediate area... luckily to a couple from CA that was more than happy to overpay.

Kevo, you should ask a realtor about those Zillow estimates... they’re about as accurate as a snow forecast. The Zestimate on our house went up $30k in a month while it was listed for sale. What a joke.

[Danno]

Out in Niwot and Longmont, inventory is way down. We closed on our house month, for way more than any home in the immediate area... luckily to a couple from CA that was more than happy to overpay.

Kevo, you should ask a realtor about those Zillow estimates... they’re about as accurate as a snow forecast. The Zestimate on our house went up $30k in a month while it was listed for sale. What a joke.

Inventory is way down as compared to 2015-16? Really?

[54-46]

Haven't seen entire proposal, but talking points of Republican tax proposal include:

- cutting off/tapering mortgage interest deduction for new mortgages over $500K
- cutting off/tapering state and local tax deductions over $10K

These provisions are irrelevant to areas other than those with expensive properties.

Those of us who do own property in expensive areas with high local/state taxes will suffer reduced deductibility and/or loss of property value if this goes through.

[mogul5480]

Out in Niwot and Longmont, inventory is way down. We closed on our house month, for way more than any home in the immediate area... luckily to a couple from CA that was more than happy to overpay.

Kevo, you should ask a realtor about those Zillow estimates... they’re about as accurate as a snow forecast. The Zestimate on our house went up $30k in a month while it was listed for sale. What a joke.

Zillow gripes notwithstanding, if you live anywhere from downtown west in Denver, or anywhere in Boulder, prices are moving appox 15% per year. Colorado is the hottest market in the US.

The trouble with Zillow is that they have a relatively basic, top down econometric model that tries to get down to pretty granular neighborhood price trends, so the estimate moves wildly within a range as new sales in a neighborhood reflect the overall trend. They eventually get there (to something close to the right price), but can look foolish in fast moving markets.

[smmokan]

Inventory is way down as compared to 2015-16? Really?

Currently, yes. There’s almost nothing for sale under $700k in Niwot and Longmont right now. I can’t really speak to Boulder though.

We ended up selling our house (closed a month ago) for about 20% over the next closest price/sqft in the area- $670k for a 2200 sqft house. Our house was nice, but not significantly nicer than anything else out there. Most of that was due to the total lack of supply, I would say.

It’s funny to see that Zillow hasn’t caught up with the Zestimates in our old neighborhood- all the others are still around $550-600k despite the sale of ours.

[Name Redacted]

Haven't seen entire proposal, but talking points of Republican tax proposal include:

- cutting off/tapering mortgage interest deduction for new mortgages over $500K
- cutting off/tapering state and local tax deductions over $10K

These provisions are irrelevant to areas other than those with expensive properties.

Those of us who do own property in expensive areas with high local/state taxes will suffer reduced deductibility and/or loss of property value if this goes through.

Yep, this is a great way to up inventory in places with a lot of second homes (which currently can get mortgage deduction up to $1M). Maybe more people will start to reclassify their second homes as investment properties or vice versa.

It the morons in congress can pass this shit sandwich of a bill, it'll have a significant affect on the real estate market in many areas. NPR this morning mentioned that the RE lobby will not be happy about it.

Zestimates are 6 months to a year behind in Summit. There's a reason it rhymes with Guestimate.

[Iowagriz]

Edit - wrong thread

[Shredhead]

We ended up selling our house (closed a month ago) for about 20% over the next closest price/sqft in the area- $670k for a 2200 sqft house. Our house was nice, but not significantly nicer than anything else out there. Most of that was due to the total lack of supply, I would say.

It’s funny to see that Zillow hasn’t caught up with the Zestimates in our old neighborhood- all the others are still around $550-600k despite the sale of ours.

Staging is huge. Making your house stand out
will always pay off. Most sellers are slobs and have no taste.
Zillow’s prices are just estimates, but most buyers have already toured your house via Zillow and your photos better be good!
I would just assume yours were, based on your posts.

Totally worth getting a pro, even if you FISBO.

[VTeton]

Right, I just need to win the Lotto for that to happen. Private flight from San Diego to Yurp is likely $200-$300k.

4matic, I looked at a cruise across the Atlantic and the dogs had to stay in the kennel area at all times. Not sure what is worse, days in a kennel with me stopping by every now and then or 5 hours from SD to NYC and then 6 hours from NYC to Paris down in the hold of a plane. My American Alsatian would likely be ok, (assuming the flight didn't kill him) my Malamute/wolf hybrid would likely go bongers.

My wife said Vancouver Island in the summer and Kelowna in the Fall and Winter is the call, so that matter has been settled. Thanks for your ideas.

I met a nutjob in Aspen that spent two years of her life getting her dog from Germany to Aspen. She trained seeing eye dogs, trained her own dog. Spent hours each day pretending to be blind herself. She forged all the European docs that allowed her to bring her dog on the plane with her. She pulled it off. I'm glad the Euros have a backbone about something, apparently it's not allowing crazy people to bring their pets on planes for emotional reasons.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[CascadeLuke]

Tried to read some of this thread but sooo much noise unrelated to the current course of the market.
Don't take it from me, a realtor - but I sold my two properties this spring and summer. And quietly advising against buying to all friends who seek my services, telling them to wait. Finishing updates on my Parents and that's going on in February. If you don't see a shit-storm brewing you must be falling for all the tweets. Been in housing for 14 years in a constant hot market comparatively to rest of U.S. Cycles nearly every 10 years.

Lending's getting lax, deregulation, and ill advised tax plan is just the latest. What happens when one of these wars we're facing gets real, real quick... Be smart mags!

[Stu Gotz]

This past weekend I looked at a house that was priced 33% lower than its original listing which was 18 months ago.

You guys around the country have no idea how good you have it.

[CascadeLuke]

I agree that many people are unaware they're in an insulated bubble. These thriving markets conceal to the community that more than half the country is struggling. I used to try and contest people when they say (in my area) the housing will not be affected because all the tech jobs and demand blah blah.. Yea okay. Don't give a shit anymore. Be blind.
How quickly they forget what only happened 10 years ago.
Frankly its these dips who make an investor come-up possible.

[liv2ski]

All markets pop at some point, BUT in my 58 years on this planet, I have only seen them always inflate higher with time. That said, good luck timing the market. Rather just don't over extend yourself so if a market you're in does tank, you can wait 10 years for it to be higher than when you bought in.
Also, as a person in the mortgage business for 33+ years, I can tell you most people buy because they want a home of their own. I try and encourage them to pay it off by time they are in their fifties, so they are in good shape for retirement.
So kids, if your 20-30 something, just buy it and get it paid off so you can fuck off like I do all day.

[shroom]

seems quite simple

[Danno]

I try and encourage them to pay it off by time they are in their fifties, so they are in good shape for retirement.

I'm 2 weeks from being in my fifties and 28 years from paying off my home.

[54-46]

This past weekend I looked at a house that was priced 33% lower than its original listing which was 18 months ago.

You guys around the country have no idea how good you have it.

Do you see the lower price as an opportunity or evidence of the weakness in that particular market? (Or none of those or both of those?)

[406]

Wow, CO has prices like CA.

The two zip codes I keep an eye on still seem low inventory and hot, 92128 & 92131.

zillow estimates seem accurate around here, but much easier to predict with so few custom homes.

I'm guessing the new tax plan will not close any loopholes used by the foreign investors (Chinese) that seem to be buying every condo and house < $1m in San Diego, so that might keep inventory low.

[Kevo]

Wow, CO has prices like CA.

The two zip codes I keep an eye on still seem low inventory and hot, 92128 & 92131.

zillow estimates seem accurate around here, but much easier to predict with so few custom homes.

I'm guessing the new tax plan will not close any loopholes used by the foreign investors (Chinese) that seem to be buying every condo and house < $1m in San Diego, so that might keep inventory low.

Prices like CA, but CO incomes.

It blows me away how expensive Longmont is getting, especially since incomes there are pretty average.

[klauss]

Pittsburgh is looking decent.

[skaredshtles]

I'm 2 weeks from being in my fifties and 28 years from paying off my home.

I'm a long ways from my 50's, and have 8 years left.

But in approximately 2 years I will beginning paying for college... and that will pretty much continue for 9 straight years. Unless I can convince my kids to go to a trade school.

[skaredshtles]

Pittsburgh is looking decent.

Pittsburgh could only ever look good on a graph.

[Tips^Up]

I visited my older brother's new home in Muscatine, IA last month, from my down-valley home in the shadow of Vail. Despite owning a beautiful home, he and his wife both in good jobs, just having a baby, he was complaining about everything. A very Trump-like view of the world. No jobs because the Mexicans are taking them all, town is collapsing, kids these days are shitheads, NFL has too many flags and disrespectful for players to kneel.

It is a stark contrast to my area, where there are not enough employees to fill jobs, we need more HB1 visas, young people starting their own businesses, I don't care much about the NFL's political position. But our housing and rentals are up and moving up. 1000sf condos are about only thing under $500,000. 1 bedroom rents at $1600/mo. And this is down-valley, where the worker bees live.

I bought a foreclosure in 2013, then another last year. 3 rentals now between the 2 properties, positive cash flow and things keep appreciating. I'm always looking, but not real enthusiastic with the current trends. But I was worried we were at the top last year. I also was worried stocks would tank...so no one knows. Luckily I didn't pull anything out of RE or stocks over the past year. Trump has been great for people with assets. No one knows where we go from here.

[Tips^Up]

Interesting factoid: China's Prime Minister Xi Jinping did a study abroad program at my brother's high school in Muscatine, Iowa. He was interested in farming and IA's a great place for that. So even in this sleepy town, there's a brand new hotel downtown overlooking the Mississippi and occasional Chinese royalty visits.