Real Estate Crash thread

[Conundrum]

Have to strap frames in my community in western ID but no hot water heater straps. Not sure when straps/bolts became a requirement but hasn't been that long ago.

Edit-much of country, not muni, still has pretty lax codes not requiring strapping.

[anotherVTskibum]

IMO, they should relax environmental code/review. Current environmental code is extremely restrictive (for good reason) and expensive to build to. In fact, many/most homes built pre 2000 on hillsides, or near "critical areas" would not be buildable sites today. Crazy long review times for stormwater and critical area reviews should be waived.

When rebuilding from these fires, it will be important to force people to rebuild to current building codes, but allow environmental code to be bent when it presents significant financial or feasibility hardship. These fires shouldnt be looked at as an opportunity to enforce current environmental codes and/or undo development. These are not voluntary remodels, or new builds, this is people who lost everything in a tragedy... as long as they arent building something that is more harmful than their previous home, it should be allowed (within reason).


Building code is a lifesafety issue, and homes should be built to current code. Period. Stormwater and environmental review and code is "nice to have" and folks rebuilding should not be forced into meeting all aspects of current code, IMO.

If you want to relax overall impact review (effectively some level of grandfathering rebuilds of comparable size), I'd agree.

I don't agree with relaxing stormwater rules, for the same reason you cite in requiring modern building codes: appropriate stormwater handling mitigates the impact of future weather events not only for that household, but also for everyone downhill. Having lived through more n-year flood events than math would suggest a 44-year-old should have, I tend to agree with those who think we're currently under predicting risk of big weather events.

[m2711c]

Maybe demand will always be there but how the f does that palisade etc land hold it's value after this. Why would anyone want to rebuild.

That land is worth nothing to me. Hyper overvalued, uninsurable, taxed and regulated to the tits. Wtf.

seriously? who wouldn’t want a place that was pre-disatered?

[byates1]

Classic

[Kevo]

Do the building codes require hot water heater straps and bolting house to foundation? Or any earthquake mitigation?

From what I have seen in SLC, that is another place is going to be in big trouble when the Wasatch pops.

As of 2021 it's seismic design category D depending on where a property is located. Seems strange to me because there is a known major fault so you'd think it would be category E.

If the fault goes at its full potential I bet most housing will be leveled.

[techaboki]

Jumping into the mortgage business now seems rough, especially with interest rates and market uncertainty. Many brokers I know are either struggling for leads or shifting to other financial services. If you're serious about it, niche strategies might help, like working with real estate investors looking to improve cash flow through tax benefits.

One thing that's helped investors is using cost segregation studies to free up cash by accelerating depreciation. It's a solid strategy, and some services specialize in maximizing those tax savings, like these guys who offer cost segregation studies tailored to different property types. Check them out here:https://costsegregationguys.com/

[liv2ski]

I would guess the mortgage / real estate businesses aren't as bad as they were in 1980 through 83, but still very challenging. I think Cascade Luke may still be doing loans if anyone ever wants to PM him about how the business is going, but keep in mind he's very well seasoned at this point and a newbie would be at a severe disadvantage.

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[singlesline]

I would guess the mortgage / real estate businesses aren't as bad as they were in 1980 through 83, but still very challenging. I think Cascade Luke may still be doing loans if anyone ever wants to PM him about how the business is going, but keep in mind he's very well seasoned at this point and a newbie would be at a severe disadvantage.

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I think it has got to come back at some point as well.

Rates aren't actually insane right now, they are just so much higher than recent memory that you have a combination of people not willing to pay them and people not willing to walk away from old mortgages.



But people need to move around. Families grow and need more space. Jobs move. Younger folks want to buy houses. Etc. House prices will also adjust slowly to accommodate higher rates (likely already happening in most places as prices have stagnated, inventory contracted or sat on the market longer, etc.).

Given the rates aren't insane and that a significant share of people who need to move aren't cash buyers...they are going to come back. Eventually they will accept that "I guess 6.x is what it costs now" and be willing to take on mortgages rather than holding out hope for 3% again. These are NOT the insane 1980s rates...these are rates that would have been considered "good" for decades.

[4matic]

The idea that rates aren’t “insane” vs price is ridiculous. There is zero comparison to 1980-3 when you factor price, wages, and rates. The average first time home buyer age is 38 and rising. More than ten years higher than 1980. That will not improve and will get worse unless rates, prices, or both drop dramatically.

Housing sales problems always start in Florida and Arizona. Look at the inventory numbers for those states. It’s not dire yet but another slow selling season and prices have to drop.

Plus, look at some of the new home prices in places like Texas and Florida. Builder prices can be thirty percent less than what other people in the same development paid.

The Fed wants shelter prices lower and wouldn’t mind stock prices lower. That’s how they smash inflation.

[4matic]

According to recent data, renting is currently considered cheaper than buying a home in most major U.S. cities, with studies showing that renting is significantly more affordable across the top 50 metro areas due to high home prices and elevated mortgage rates

[4matic]

What has home insurance increases added to the price of ownership? 50bp?

[yeahman]

Anecdotal: Buddy of mine trying to sell his place in Tucson says the market there is very soft right now.

[AdironRider]

Home insurance rates are very quickly becoming home value appreciation killers. In a place like FL even a cash buyer needs to cash flow close to 2k a month just to cover insurance and taxes on some pretty basic houses. Throw in an HOA or just basic maintenance and that means a household needs to make 100k plus just to cover the carrying costs on a cash deal. Throw a mortgage on top of top of that? Forget about any real appreciation. That said, my hood in the Upper Valley of NH continues to impress with several houses that last sold in 2020-2021 selling for hundreds of thousands more in just a couple years. NIMBY zoning regs will do that for ya.

[ötzi]

DC area values will probably take a hit.

[4matic]

Housing vacancies are near ten year highs with five hundred thousand more units coming online

[yeahman]

Housing vacancies are near ten year highs with five hundred thousand more units coming online

Sweet

[fastfred]

Housing vacancies are near ten year highs with five hundred thousand more units coming online

Doesn't matter
If chuck is making 18 bucks an hr and a 1 bedroom is 2k a month plus hidden fees plus utilities you can build all the housing you wants
It's unaffordable

[4matic]

Doesn't matter
If chuck is making 18 bucks an hr and a 1 bedroom is 2k a month plus hidden fees plus utilities you can build all the housing you wants
It's unaffordable

Just a 5% overall drop in rents or a couple months incentive, which is common now, makes renting vastly cheaper than ownership which is exponentially less affordable

[liv2ski]

Just a 5% overall drop in rents or a couple months incentive, which is common now, makes renting vastly cheaper than ownership which is exponentially less affordable

I haven't seen residential rents going down in San Diego. In fact I looked at the local newspaper the other day and was shocked by current rents in our hood, but still way cheaper to rent than buy.

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[4matic]

I looked at the local newspaper the other day

Ok boomer

[4matic]

As I’ve said, a five percent overall drop, while not that noticeable, makes renting far more affordable than purchase with rates where they are. Rents continue to fall and inventory continues to rise nationwide.

San Diego also saw a dip in rents from August to September, and a more significant three . One drop compared to the same time last year.

https://caanet.org/rents-decline-in-...-market-cools/

[liv2ski]

Boomer checking in to this important thread. I guess the great news is our rents are so far below market that even increasing them the maximum allowed by law, still put some way under what they're being advertised and supposedly rented for. And looking at my primary residence, if I could persuade my wife to move to Europe, it would rent for a fuck ton, cuz people want to live here. Got to love the old ball and chain. just keeping me from living an exciting life.

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[neufox47]

Saw some anecdotes that the DC area had inventory blow up in the last months due to layoffs. Any truth to it?


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[J. Barron DeJong]

Austin built apparements faster than anywhere in the country, and now rents have dropped from $1800 to $1400 in a three year period. Do this everywhere, please.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...building-spree

[shroom]

thanks Joe Rogan