50 years to the day

[californiagrown]

This thread is moving pretty fast so sorry if I missed it, but there been any discussion about the DNI's assessment that Iran is not building nukes? That has been one of the craziest parts about this whole thing, in what world would Iran not be building/ trying to build nukes?

Tulsi = Putin. Dont trust Putin. Dont trust Tulsi. Wildly underqualified for the job and the whole department has suffered for it. Look, Iran's nuclear program has alway been intended to produce nuclear weapons. They have just stayed a certain distance from breakout so they can claim civilian energy use and not incur further/additional sanctions or military actions. They operate a single power plant. 1. Thats it. I doubt we will know for a long time jsut how close Iran has gotten to a warhead... but i wouldnt be surprised if they hit the gas on breakout after Israel's bombing last year. Whether their program was offensive or strickly defensive in nature, rest assured that their program was not primarily intended for civilian use.

A weapon system designed to be released from a bomber at 630mph at 50,000ft interfaced with its targeting system cannot just be shoved into the back for an Israeli C-130J

How but the Israelis give trump a nice Boeing 747 with gold lettering, and dumps give Israel a nice B52? That is the original test plane of the GBU57....

[summit]

It's not terribly hard to calculate how long it would take to from their existing HEU-60 stockpile to the first amount of WGU needed for a weapon given we know how many and what type of centrifuges Iran has at Fordo. Some plus-minus depending on if they want a gun-type weapon or an implosion weapon. The timeline is shorter if they have a stockpile just-sub weapons grade (IAEA detected 83.7% enriched Uranium at Fordow). Technically, they could already have enough, otherwise, or if just starting from 60% they could have it in a few weeks. Building the bomb from there is not a horrific technical challenge. Remember, we built on 80 years ago with slide rules. The industrial structures needed to create the special nuclear material are the true hurdle to atomic bombs.

This is why EU leaders are demanding Iran agree to no enrichment.

And it is also worth calling out that the people saying Iran is years away are not specifying that they mean years from a modern miniaturized warhead with a novel new ballistic missile. That is an asinine position to take when discussing with the worlds #1 sponsor of global terrorism.

What we don't know is when Iran decided to hit the hurry button. Here, we kinda can only listen to Israeli intelligence claims, but with a grain of salt. Israel has repeatedly proved their boots-on-ground intelligence in the Iranian nuke program and the US just doesn't seem very good at HUMINT there. Is Israel going to say what is needed to justify? Yes, but also one would assume that they had to have credible intelligence before they decided it was worth the risk to undertake their riskiest military operation in over 50 years, maybe ever.

So how long really? Weeks? Months? Too late? Almost certainly one of those.

The Iranian regime just announced they will not negotiate... not ideal.

[RTsucks]

Let's not forget that Netanyahu's baby boy had to postpone his wedding twice. So this whole affair is a tragedy.

[summit]

Hamas's military finance chief is deaded.

Iran’s missile strike on Haifa hit Al-Jarina Mosque, sadly injuring Muslim clerics inside. Luckily, most of the Israeli Muslims went to the bomb shelters built for them because they are Israeli and Israel has had to build civilian bomb shelters due to decades of Iranian rocket attacks via Iranian controlled Hezbollah.

Iranian missile strikes caused other casualties, hit a school and a daycare, but roughly half of Iran's long range ballistic missiles are gone. 2/3 of that half were destroyed on the ground. 1/3 were fired at Israel with about 15% being intercepted by Arab, American, EU, and Israeli interception and defense assets. Iran's drone arsenal and shorter ranged missiles (capable of hitting Arab states and US bases) remains largely intact and Iran continues to launch jet drones... US has relocated forces out of range and Arab states have moved their aircraft and naval fleets out of harbor.

EU negotiators met with Iranians to encourage negotiations... but they refused to negotiate with the US.

Israel deads Hezbollah missile chief and rocket sites that were reconstituting to launch their arsenals of Iranian supplied rockets.

Palestinian Action agents infiltrated RAF Brize Norton (largest RAF base) on scooters and attack UK aircraft on the flightline. UK moves to ban the organization.

US announces new sanctions on Iran meant to stop trade with China and also Houthi funding. Where are more sanctions on Russia?

Putin demands Israel stop its attacks on Iran.

[summit]

Good graphic from Al Jazeera on what the US can do vs Israel
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/...ons-destroy-it


A thing to note about Tulsi (compromat DNI) comments in March is she was quoting IAEA saying months earlier that they didn't know of an active Iranian bomb program, but she wasn't quoting current US intel or foreign intel.

US intel, DCIA, currently says yea Iran in weeks from a bomb. Mossad says the same.

And IAEA now?

IAEA found Iran in violation of the NNPT (nuclear nonproliferation treaty), "could no longer determine Iran's nuclear program was peaceful," and that stockpiles of HEU were missing.

Tehran's response? "We are going to upgrade centrifuges and build more enrichment sites."

When was that? After 60 days of negotiations. The next day Israel said "fuckit" and started air strikes.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/...ear-safeguards
https://apnews.com/article/iran-nucl...682e13a82ff8bd
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...ay-2025-06-12/
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/06/1164291
https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/12/...ar-obligations

[summit]

Tulsi now says she believes Iran will have the bomb in weeks to months.

[mcski]

What about Isreal being in violation for having dozens of nukes ?

This is much more about Israel seeing an opportunity for regime change than Iran suddenly having a nuke

In two weeks , Trump will prob be blathering a yet another episode of his dis-reality show and have forgotten all about this. And in two weeks nothing will have changed as far as Iran getting closer to a nuke

Tulsi is a Putin mouth piece but that’s another issue on whether what she said was accurate, misinterpreted, or whatever

[summit]

Israel never signed NNPT. They are not a declared nuclear power. Everyone thinks they do have them (for 45+ years), which is useful for Israel.

Israel is also not the #1 global sponsor of terrorism. That would be Iran for 39 years running. Israel also has not committed itself publicly and repeatedly to wiping other countries of the face of the Earth as a primary policy. That's Iran again.

But regime change?

Regime change is hopes and dreams IMO. I know Israel cannot do it because a tiny ass country the size of New Jersey with 9M people cannot commit to expeditionary warfare 1000mi away. Air strikes are not that.

I also know the US will never do it. Us blowing up Uranium centrifuge cascades in a bunker on a remote plateau is not going to cause regime change. That is about all the US is in for. We will NEVER invade Iran, which is a good thing that will never happen. Iran is an expansive mountainous country the size of fucking Alaska with 90M people.

If Israel and the US drop bombs on Iranian military targets for a few days, and that results in regime change, well then, it wasn't really the US and Israel that did regime change. It would be the Persian people. And that would be nice, especially for the people of Persia. One day it will probably happen, but I doubt it is gonna be 2025 as a result of a limited air campaign.

[highangle]

What about Isreal being in violation for having dozens of nukes ? This is much more about Israel seeing an opportunity for regime change than Iran suddenly having a nuke In two weeks , Trump will prob be blathering a yet another episode of his dis-reality show and have forgotten all about this. And in two weeks nothing will have changed as far as Iran getting closer to a nuke Tulsi is a Putin mouth piece but that’s another issue on whether what she said was accurate, misinterpreted, or whatever

Bro why arent you spittin blood that Iran delibrately and in cold blood attacked a Sunni mosque in Haifa that dates from the Umayaad? War crime, no?

[summit]

Simply audacious... how did Israel perform a decapitating/disarming strike? They tricked the entire Iranian Air Force (which controls ze missiles) top 20 general officers into one bunker at the start of the attack, hit the bunker, and in the paralysis that followed, knocked out a huge chunk of the 1000 missile alert force that would have been fired right away.

https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/is...eaths-ejqk7guy

[Cono Este]

You have to love the “Israel started it” crowd.

It’s actually a bit unnerving how wide spread it is.

[The Nuclear Option]

I’m just not sure that I should trust Trump or Netanyayu or Israeli Intelligence that couldnt even suss out 10/7 but they KNOW what Iranian nuke status is. Yeah..:just like the CIA told us about WMD but couldnt predict or defend 9/11 . Overreaction and over estimation follows failure. Besides what in the actual fuck with Netanyayu having anying fucking thing to do with running Israel? Like Israel said, “Trump? Hold my beer and behold our Netanyayu!”The longer war goes on, the longer his legal reckoning is delayed:

[jono]

I’m just not sure that I should trust Trump or Netanyayu or Israeli Intelligence that couldnt even suss out 10/7 but they KNOW what Iranian nuke status is. Yeah..:just like the CIA told us about WMD but couldnt predict or defend 9/11 . Overreaction and over estimation follows failure. Besides what in the actual fuck with Netanyayu having anying fucking thing to do with running Israel? Like Israel said, “Trump? Hold my beer and behold our Netanyayu!”The longer war goes on, the longer his legal reckoning is delayed:

Point of order: the CIA was in the right side of WMD. So much so that the Cheney administration used "but his wife is CIA!" to discredit a dissenting voice. Remember Lewis "Scooter" Libby? That was because the CIA wasn't on board.

[Bunion 2020]

As opposed to the

Israel can do no wrong crowd

[RTsucks]

I'm waiting for cono to dig deeper into the explanans and the explanandum. I would be fascinated to further understand his thinking.

[Bunion 2020]

The only thing inside his noggin is a great big ball of spider webs.

[summit]

Fair enough if you have low confidence in the CIA over their errors of 20 years ago from which you assume they did not improve. They did insist that perhaps Saddam was stockpiling WMDs in locked wing of this or that palace.

But this ain't that.

What about the IAEA which is an organ of the UN and actually doing the onsite inspections of Uranium enrichment sites that were built to withstand any bomb in existence at the time of construction, finding 83.7% enriched Uranium (85% is weapons grade), missing stockpiles, and other evidence of a weapons program?

Intent is not nebulous. And the UN found the evidence. Why is it necessary to twist yourself into a pretzel to dismiss it? Or asked another way, is there anything that will convince you short of a mushroom cloud filled with the vaporized bodies of Americans?

[RTsucks]

I'm unclear about how bombs find missing stockpiles.

[summit]

Believe it or not, that is where you do need on-the-ground intelligence, HUMINT to go with your ELINT/SIGINT/IMINT. Those sites are some of the most continuously and closely watched sites. It is a pretty decent bet that the Izzies and the US know where that shit went. Some is in the deep bunkers. But here is the thing: if the regime has impenetrable bunkers full of the mechanisms to make WGU, then you can knock out a can of HEU60 and they'll make more. In the modern age, the hard part about nukes is the massive industrial infrastructure needed to create bomb material. That is why a nuclear program is a national political decision of a nationstate.

There are nations that do bad things to good people and they get punished. Think, Libya. 1967 Egypt. Syria. We pound them and they become less of a threat.

Once a nationstate owns a nuke they are part of the club known as "off limits." Think of the Norks. Pretty much out of control. Think the Taliban defeated the US in Afghanistan. Think again. It was the nuclear armed Paks.

What you have to do is look at bad actors, how bad they are, and then extrapolate how much worse they could get in the nuclear club. In the case of the terrorist sponsoring Iranians, the death-to the-great Satan, Beirut-EFP-Khobar Towers-Hezbollah-Houthi-Qods Force crew, today they are bad and with the Nukes they will be infinitely worse. Intolerably worse. And unstoppable. The hill to make your stand on is now. Here it is.

A future with them having nukes will be infinitely worse for the region, everybody. It has to be prevented.

The DC crew kicked this can down the road as long as they can. It was inevitable, the Israelis, with more to lose and less margin for error, would start this.

I cant really understand how anyone could fail to see this unless you simply aren't aware of the Iranian history, or the diplomatic problems of nations in the nuclear club. The RUssians for crying out loud flew MiGs against us in Korea and manned AAA against us in Vietnam. Cant touch them, they have Nukes. The Chinese supported the NVA to hell and back. They had nukes.

Right now, even among the bad actors, there are no nuclear nations founded on the ideology of martyrdom and triggering the final battle against the nonbeliever in order to reveal the hidden savior of the scripture. That's 12er Islam of the Iranian Mullahs, by the way, and the opposite of the rational actor on which deterrence is based.

Do the Iranians get to have nukes? Short term costs and can -kicking don't cut it. You're going to pay one way or the other and those that have some awareness of what goes on in that space can tell you the cost is much less now.

[summit]

The USAF is being intentionally obvious about our movement of MOP armed B-2s because they are confident enough in their safety that the government is willing to trade surprise for the diplomatic messaging that there is still time to negotiate. They'll be able to strike Iran as early as tonight.

Meanwhile the massive positioning of US air forces and naval battle groups into the area will allow the US to shut down Iranian retaliation if attempted (destroying their missiles and navy).

But, the Mullahs are not interested. Just now:
"Iran president says will not halt nuclear activity 'under any circumstances'" -AFP

The 12er Islamist Mullahs of Iran believe it is their purpose to slaughter the infidels of the Great and Little Satan in The Final Battle to reveal their Hidden 12th Imam (the Mahdi) and bring forth the the justice of the end times. They are apocolyptic, not rational actors subject to classical deterrence.

[riser4]

Unfortunately there are apocalypse worshippers in the US and Israel, too. Im not saying Iran is by any means good or justified. They're not.

[Cisco Kid]

You are a really smart guy. School me about Muslim v Jewish armed conflicts prior to 1945 or 1845 and 1045

[highangle]

Unfortunately there are apocalypse worshippers in the US and Israel, too. Im not saying Iran is by any means good or justified. They're not.

Holy false equivalence, Whoopi.

ProTip: America doesn't make that shit national policy.

God damn bro, give your brain a chance.

[mcski]

The 12er Islamist Mullahs of Iran believe it is their purpose to slaughter the infidels of the Great and Little Satan in The Final Battle to reveal their Hidden 12th Imam (the Mahdi) and bring forth the the justice of the end times. They are apocolyptic, not rational actors subject to classical deterrence.

This is pure propaganda and utter nonsense. The mullahs suck, but they are definitely rational actors but their interests are not ours. I’d love to see them get tossed by the Iranian people but this description is just utter nonsense.

Who is most likely to thirst for the blood of infidels?

[Cisco Kid]

There are Catholics in the highest levels of our government who believe that their religion tells them to kill all the Muslims so there is that. I am not just feeling the rain it is what they have said.