Hurricane 2023

[ötzi]

Supposed to be in the 70s all week up in Flagstaff.

[406]

And pulling a trailer with all T2s shit. Fuck, any AZ mags down for a mini-summit?

Just watched last weather update and storm is moving faster and might be done by Monday morning.

[nickbokhoven]

Torrey Pines State Beach sunset tonight. Sky was magical. The saying about red sunset sailors’s delight isn’t holding true. 8-13’ short period swell. Eerily quiet tonight and waiting for the winds to come.


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[neufox47]

I’m really hopeful I’m this Hurricane means fire season in CA will be kept at bay for a while.


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[evdog]

I went down to Mitchs in Point Loma tonight for tacos. As others said it was super calm out. Lots of tuna boats were coming in. But the harbor seemed pretty empty so either a bunch of boats are still out, or they moved them to a more sheltered spot. The Navy was apparently sending a carrier and a bunch of ships out to sea today to avoid possible damage to the docks.

I've got to think the biggest risk in the San Diego area is erosion from the torrential rain. Lots of hills/ravines and lots of houses built on them. I doubt the wind speeds will be high enough at that point for any major wind damage.

If the storm tracks like they've been showing, it shouldn't be worse than any of a dozen storms we got last winter. And hopefully less bad since ground isn't already saturated with water right now. Streams will surge for a short time and we'll get some local flooding but hopefully landslides and mudslides will be minimal. Downed trees could be a wild card since we have a lot of trees weakened by drought and insect damage. Just recently had a number of big oaks fall over in a local park. This will depend how strong the winds actually get.

How fucked is Lake Arrowhead? Some family lives there.

Well they won't be getting 15 feet of snow in this storm, so there's that : )

But mountain areas between LA and Palm Springs are pretty susceptible to rockfall and landslides because the terrain is so steep. And with heavy rain flash floods and debris flows are a big concern. Areas near San Bernardino are getting evacuated.

I posted this article from 1988 a while back in another thread. It's worth a read. This war is still going on. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1...he-mountains-i

[evdog]

I hear you man, and the school (not SDSU) has been really good about sending out info, take your time, we’ll be here all week, etc. We’re gonna take it day by day, but fuck if ima drive back to the Q, it’s actually nice and cool(er)
In Phoenix at the moment….

Check road conditions Monday morning and you'll have a pretty good idea when you can go. If the desert around El Centro gets hammered there could be road damage, that area usually doesn't see heavy rain. But the rest of the route should be ok once the storm passes.

[mcski]

I posted this article from 1988 a while back in another thread. It's worth a read. This war is still going on. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1...he-mountains-i

I grew up below Baldy and the roads between there and San Bernardino used to have massive culvert dips every 1/4 mile or less to accommodate all the flooding. The 210 was completed in a the mid 80s and but the early 90s all that flood plain was covered by suburban homes. The home growth in the flood channels has exploded since that NY article was written

Even w a ton of hurricane rain, I have a hard time believing the flooding would be worse that winter storm saturation, but flash floods are no joke. And the flash is no joke, no warning. If you’re in a channel when it comes, yer fucked

[m2711c]

they call ‘em “flash” floods for a reason…

https://youtube.com/shorts/FG5JVhDcpwk?feature=share


damn nature, you scary!


fact.

[liv2ski]

Just looked at the hourly forecast for Ensenada MX as Hillary should be there now and it looks very under rated for all the hype in CA over the last 24 hours. Winds are gusting around 45 mph at the moment but the rain is less than a quarter inch per two hours. I can live with that.

[The Reverend Floater]

Getting the northern tip of this system in central Idaho and I haven't seen rain like this in a long time. Impressive.

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[ASmileyFace]

This guy is my favorite for tropical storm info. He doesn't usually post his updates till later in the PM but it is worth keeping an eye on if you are in the line of fire.

[bodywhomper]

Just looked at the hourly forecast for Ensenada MX as Hillary should be there now and it looks very under rated for all the hype in CA over the last 24 hours. Winds are gusting around 45 mph at the moment but the rain is less than a quarter inch per two hours. I can live with that.

It’ll be interesting to see if the fx pans out. NWS forecast sustained at 45 and gusts at 65 mph for Coronado for early this afternoon.

On Twitter, D Swain just pointed the rapid growth of large convective cells in the inland desert of north Baja and SE CA.

[liv2ski]

Meeeh, from the NWS for Coronado CA. Maybe the action is east of us?

This Afternoon
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 78. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph becoming east. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Tonight
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 69. Breezy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Monday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[liv2ski]

Yup, the action is east of me. Must be all that clean livin we do...

[evdog]

I parked my truck out on the street. It better be clean when I go out and check in a couple hours! Mostly slow steady rain so far with a few short periods of heavier rain.

[gravitylover]

Did you soap it up first? I love doing that.

Getting the northern tip of this system in central Idaho and I haven't seen rain like this in a long time. Impressive.

Yeah you folks don't see tropical rains often at all. When it gets to 10 inches in a day lemme know, that's some good shit.

[bodywhomper]

Meeeh, from the NWS for Coronado CA. Maybe the action is east of us?

I was reading the point forecast graphs for Coronado. Now all has changed as the track has shifted east again.

[evdog]

5.1 earthquake near Ojai

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/nat...ornia/3288861/

[seano732]

End times

[liv2ski]

My buddy out in Palm Desert said it's raining like a mofo so definitely east of San Diego. The wind finally kicked in here.

[Rideski]

I demand photos of desert blooming flowers afterwards.

[bodywhomper]

How fucked is Lake Arrowhead? Some family lives there.

Arrowhead has been getting hammered tonight with rain.

[bobz]

I've got no info about what people are experiencing in San Diego County or elsewhere under the gun of this event.

But we just came out of a southern Sierra backpack trip Saturday afternoon, and it was pretty unprecedented. We got to the car at Cottonwood Pass trailhead around 2PM, it started to rain a few minutes later. So far nothing unusual; afternoon showers are par for the course about 30% of the summer. But then the rain picked up. Instead of clearing as we dropped into the (normally hot and dry in August) Owens Valley, it was dumping by the time we got to Lone Pine. Then yesterday, I swear I never wasn't using my windshield wipers (and much of the time I was focused on avoiding puddle lines on the road) for 400 miles across Nevada. It wasn't not raining until Utah a bit east of Wendover.

I looked up some Sierra point forecasts, where we'd been. All those JMTers we'd talked to and hung out with are (literally) hosed right now. Yeah, I know, when you go into the wilderness, "you find more than you seek", and I've sure gotten my share of Type 2 Fun weather in the Sierra over the years. But damn, those folks are getting clobbered now. Those two women from Ohio starting the JMT who we shared a Soldier Lake campsite with Friday night... I guess they're huddled in their little 2-lb syl-nyl tent at Crabtree right now getting dumped on, and Whitney sure isn't happening for them.

[mcski]

5.1 earthquake near Ojai

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/nat...ornia/3288861/

Hurriquake weather

[Jumper Bones]

Yeah definitely earthquake weather