Chris Tomer Appreciation Thread (North American Snow Forecaster)

[Kevo]

Chris is a meteorologist and TV personality based in Colorado. He's also a backcountry skier, trail runner and mountaineer with a passion for mountain weather.

He puts out really solid YouTube forecasts all winter that focus on snow and ski conditions in North America. His forecasts are very detailed and he doesn't pad or hype numbers.

He's my favorite resource for snow forecasts and making sense out of mountain weather.

Here's his forecast from today-

He also runs a blog for anyone who isn't into YouTube- https://christomer.com/blog/

IMHO he's worth checking out. Cheers!

[hatchgreenchile]

CT and Powderchaser Steve are 10/10.

[Backward_Banana]

I'm always entertained when he'll be going on about someplace in CO with "nice flow" getting 6-8 inches when Baker is forecast for like 60" without mention. Not that I think it should be mentioned, just funny. Obviously he's based in CO.

[Core Shot]

Just got turned on to this dude from a friend.
Great meteorology for skiers.

[pfluffenmeister]

He is awesome, very passionate.

Been following him for awhile, great resource.

PS He told me to go to Jackson Hole and it's snowed 41" in the last three days!

[zlatham]

I watch his daily videos, and they are awesome, really cool, synopsis and graphics, great resource!


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[yeahman]

I'm a fan.

[Buster Highmen]

Michael Snyder:

Pacific Northwest Weather Watch

Worthy for the PNW too.

[senior researcher]

For me, Tomer, has been accurate on the depth of last 3 cycles, from 10 days out. The timing was on point as well.

[paulster2626]

Yeah this guy is the best. Pretty much always bang-on and no bullshit mentions of him "creating content" just straight to the point and out. LOVE IT.

Always have a chuckle of his 2-second synopsis of the east.

[dangerdad]

Chris forecasted a denali ski in 2019 for us. He was awesome. he gave us a window that was not well forecasted.

[whipski]

Usually watch am/pm. His forecast amounts are on trend basis so it's best not to make a move till the day before you're going to ski. I think Seth forecasts predictions a little more to the anticipated day. I've traveled based on both forecasters and been rewarded and skunked. My home base resort tends to buck either though so 3-4" forecast often results in 7-9"

[Deutchskier]

Always have a chuckle of his 2-second synopsis of the east.

I showed my buddy Tomer's forecasts while he was visiting me here in Tahoe. Tomer had like maybe 6-10" total for the ski areas in Vermont over like a 2+ week period in January. In that same period, places like Bolton Valley and Stowe picked up 60"+. Using the big global models don't cut it with northern New England's mesoscale weather patterns that bring the majority of the snow. He's pretty blase about the Northeast in general- he doesn't care.

My buddy also laughed at the ten day projections- which are always gonna be way off. My problem with Tomer is squarely that Tomer knows better than to get people excited more than 5 days out, maybe 7 days out if you want to really, really stretch it. Been following his forecasting, he basically shifts his daily projections with the models. It's kinda meh after a while. Rather just read the forecast discussion by the NWS.

His forecasts are mediocre model rip-and-read to me. Snowfall forecasts for whole continent for 10 day period? That's really stretching it. And a lot of the time, he shifts around and the forecast is kinda junk I'm finding for the Sierra, too-I recall in a day, he called for for 60" over a week stretch for tahoe, and the next day it was 18" forecast). Shocking. He's all over the place. It just gets people excited- that's the draw.

[paulster2626]

I showed my buddy Tomer's forecasts while he was visiting me here in Tahoe. Tomer had like maybe 6-10" total for the ski areas in Vermont over like a 2+ week period in January. In that same period, places like Bolton Valley and Stowe picked up 60"+. Using the big global models don't cut it with northern New England's mesoscale weather patterns that bring the majority of the snow. He's pretty blase about the Northeast in general- he doesn't care.

My buddy also laughed at the ten day projections- which are always gonna be way off. My problem with Tomer is squarely that Tomer knows better than to get people excited more than 5 days out, maybe 7 days out if you want to really, really stretch it. Been following his forecasting, he basically shifts his daily projections with the models. It's kinda meh after a while. Rather just read the forecast discussion by the NWS.

His forecasts are mediocre model rip-and-read to me. Snowfall forecasts for whole continent for 10 day period? That's really stretching it. And a lot of the time, he shifts around and the forecast is kinda junk I'm finding for the Sierra, too-I recall in a day, he called for for 60" over a week stretch for tahoe, and the next day it was 18" forecast). Shocking. He's all over the place. It just gets people excited- that's the draw.

Well, people are dumb if they don't realize 10-day forecasts in the mountains are sketchy at best. But there is a forecast and that's what he's presenting. Everyone knows it's the 2-3 day one that counts.

That said, he's forecasted ~2 feet for Revelstoke between now and 3/2. Lets see how it all stacks up.

[Deutchskier]

Well, people are dumb if they don't realize 10-day forecasts in the mountains are sketchy at best. But there is a forecast and that's what he's presenting. Everyone knows it's the 2-3 day one that counts.

That said, he's forecasted ~2 feet for Revelstoke between now and 3/2. Lets see how it all stacks up.

Well if we all know it's bullshit- the data beyond days 5-7 is basically random at that point- why do it, esp. as a pro? So what kind of forecast is it? It's kind of click-batey to me- gets people excited but no thanks. I'm sure many meteorologists roll their eyes on the flimsy projections. Stick to reading the AFD from the local NWS office and it's a lot more useful.

[paulster2626]

Well if we all know it's bullshit- the data beyond days 5-7 is basically random at that point- why do it, esp. as a pro? So what kind of forecast is it? It's kind of click-batey to me- gets people excited but no thanks. I'm sure many meteorologists roll their eyes on the flimsy projections. Stick to reading the AFD from the local NWS office and it's a lot more useful.

Because it's fun? I like watching it daily and seeing how the storms come through and follow the jet streams and do (or don't do) what the models predicted they would. It's interesting and I appreciate the cut-to-the-chase format that a lot of youtube is lacking.

And there's a difference between sketchy and bullshit to me. GDPS showing 93cm at Revy by 03/02 - watch out, the Tomer's on to something!

[yeahman]

I only started watching this season and don't pay attention to anywhere but Montana, but Tomer has been pretty accurate, especially on timing, which is where NOAA is often off by a day+.

And FWIW I've been at this too long to get "excited" by any forecast, short or long range.

[paulster2626]

That said, he's forecasted ~2 feet for Revelstoke between now and 3/2. Lets see how it all stacks up.

We're early and there's more snow on the way, but lets see how Tomer's prognostications are stacking up:
Predicted 10-day total - 24", or 61cm
2/23 - 1cm
2/24 - 8cm
2/25 - 15cm
2/26 - 13cm
2/27 - 12cm
2/28 - 20cm
2/29 - forecast 11cm
3/01 - forecast 9cm
3/02 - forecast 12cm

Total on the ground as of right now: 69cm (nice)
Total expected by Friday: 80-100cm (wow)

Tomer is a boss. Lets all bow down to the king.

[pfluffenmeister]

Based on Chris' projections I knew I needed to make it in to UT before 5pm on 2/26.
I barely made it and skied pow all day at The Beav'!

[senior researcher]

This is more apt for me. Based on the last 2 PTO days taken. After thinking he was a wizard, on the previous 2. https://youtu.be/LR13PD1UZJk?si=8MEk-a0zVhJ-qjW-