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  1. #1526
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    PNW 2022/2023 Season - It's Triple Dip La Nia Time!

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    Got some fine turns on big T. The wind had put it in all the right spots. Gorgeous moon too


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    Gravity always wins...

  2. #1527
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    Haha! The rare September's Pow!

  3. #1528
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    that is way more and better snow that I thought there'd be up there

  4. #1529
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpSlsrP_hXY&t=15s Easy pass 2007. We’re fortunate to have these images. Lost a computer full of mountain images around this time. Much easier to obtain July, August and September turns back in the day.

  5. #1530
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    Likewise- they showed me some dire photos from a week ago at the Wilderness Information Center, and said i should definitely take axe and crampons because theres cracks big enough to fall in. Seemed pretty good .


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  6. #1531
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagnificentUnicorn View Post
    I just rally through in the Cherokee


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    We took the Outback up there. Got passed by a government pickup. Todd made it to the top of Carne. Did I tell you that?

  7. #1532
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    Nice meeting you up there Riff. Hope you didnt get stuck in the hours long construction traffic in Stevens Canyon like we did.
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  8. #1533
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    FKNA. That looks nice.

    Checked in up at Stevens. The new lift is looking good. Plenty of fall colors around but no snow yet.

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  9. #1534
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skier of the Hood View Post
    Nice meeting you up there Riff. Hope you didnt get stuck in the hours long construction traffic in Stevens Canyon like we did.
    Likewise! Good work gettin up there. There was some delay but nothing too bad, sorry it stacked up on you. Super fun day up there all things considered


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  10. #1535
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    Not sure I've ever seen a proper skin track on the snowfield... Someone must be working on their kick turns

    Past-season stoke:
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  11. #1536
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    Quote Originally Posted by BaseFloopy View Post
    Not sure I've ever seen a proper skin track on the snowfield... Someone must be working on their kick turns

    Past-season stoke:
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    I got to lay it out in accordance with my preferences


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  12. #1537
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    A beautiful NorthWest day on Sunday.

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    Views were endless.

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    Great week to come up and hang out at Moms.

  13. #1538
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    Quote Originally Posted by riff View Post
    I got to lay it out in accordance with my preferences


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    I think that is a beautiful skin track. I dont like steep skinners and dont mind kick turns


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  14. #1539
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    Ha, I wasn't 'riffing' on riff, like I said it looks proper to me... aesthetically pleasing, and well placed. I.e. the exact opposite of what I usually see up there.

  15. #1540
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    From: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/ftp/hrd/annane/DIS/Q3.pdf


    Definition:
    Modoki El Nino is different from traditional El Nino because the SST warming is largely in the central
    equatorial Pacific region instead of in the eastern equatorial Pacific region. Recent studies show that
    the canonical El Nino has become less frequent and that a different kind of El Nino has become more
    common during the late twentieth century, in which warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the
    central Pacific are flanked on the east and west by cooler SSTs. This type of El Nino, termed the
    central Pacific El Nino(CPEl Nino; also termed the dateline El Nino, El Nino Modoki or warm pool El
    Nino), differs from the canonical eastern Pacific El Nino (EPEl Nino) in both the location of
    maximum SST anomalies and tropical–midlatitude teleconnections. The first recorded El Nio that
    originated in the central Pacific and moved toward the east was in 1986. El Nio "Modoki" events
    occurred in 1991-92, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05, and 2009-10. The El Nino Modoki was named to
    represent the phenomenon in 2004 that had a maximum SST anomaly in the central tropical Pacific,
    differing from the conventional El Nino. In addition, such modification in the structure of El Nino has
    implications for its teleconnection pattern in many countries surrounding the Pacific Ocean.
    The number of CPEl Nino events is relatively small, its frequency increased noticeably after 1990. For
    the period of 1854– 2007, the occurrence ratio of the EPEl Nino before and after 1990 is 0.19 per year
    and 0.29 per year, respectively, whereas that of the CPEl Nino before and after 1990 is 0.01 per year
    and 0.29 per year, respectively. Simply put, this result indicates that anomalous warm SSTs in the
    central equatorial Pacific (that is, CPEl Nino) has been observed more frequently during recent
    decades (Yeh 2009 title: "El Nino in a changing climate Nature paper")
    The large difference of anomalous mean SST between the two types of El Nino results in changes in
    the total SST pattern in the tropical Pacific , which determines the atmospheric response. For the EPEl
    Nino the centre of maximum anomalous rainfall is observed around the dateline; for the CPEl Nino it
    is shifted westward to around 165 deg E. The anomalous rainfall is largely enhanced in the central and
    eastern equatorial Pacific and reduced in the western equatorial Pacific during the EPEl Nino
    compared to the CPEl Nino.
    In addition to the differences in their spatial structure, the EP and CP types of ENSO also show
    differences in their temporal evolution


    Scope 1991-92, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05, and 2009-10 in the following for Snoq Pass snowfall:
    http://hyak.net/snowfallhist.html :

    1990-91 372
    1994-95 411
    2002-03 235
    2004-05 191
    2009-10 189

    Average snowfall
    90s: 388
    00s: 371
    10-20: 301
    Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
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  16. #1541
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    He's an asshole but Cliff Mass did write a meteorology textbook on PNW weather. Here's his post about El Ninos: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/...-nino-for.html

    The January-March precipitation signal is weak east of the Cascade crest and is pretty localized to the western slopes of the Cascades, which gets less precipitation (down around 3 inches)--which is relatively small compared to the 60-100 inches often observed on the slopes.
    […]

    Below is a NOAA analysis of the difference from average snowfall for the 10 strongest El Nino winter and all El Ninos. The Northwest tends to get less snow by as much as 10 inches over the mountains. Considering that much of our high terrain gets hundreds of inches a year, the El Nino impact is modest.

    So the bottom line is that the El Nino influence should be modest, with most of the impacts after January. And keep in mind that not all El Nino years follow the above patterns. El Nino is only one factor influencing atmospheric evolution over the planet.

  17. #1542
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptavv View Post
    He's an asshole but Cliff Mass did write a meteorology textbook on PNW weather. Here's his post about El Ninos: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/...-nino-for.html
    That's at odd with the
    1990-91 372
    1994-95 411 *
    2002-03 235
    2004-05 191
    2009-10 189

    Average snowfall
    90s: 388
    00s: 371
    10-20: 301

    where only 1 out of 5 of this type of Modoki El Nino exceeded the 10 year average for Snoqualmie. 3 out of 5 years were down by 36%, 48% and 37%.

    Plus, I don't think he's an asshole, he's just trying to tamp down hysteria.
    Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
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  18. #1543
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    ‘04/‘05 stunk at Mission but ‘09/‘10 was one of the best that I can remember. I think ‘04/‘05 was also a blocking pattern and every storm missed us.

  19. #1544
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    ‘91/‘92 might have been affected by Mt Pinatubo?

  20. #1545
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    Quote Originally Posted by wickstad View Post
    04/05 stunk at Mission but 09/10 was one of the best that I can remember. I think 04/05 was also a blocking pattern and every storm missed us.
    11/12 was better than 09/10, we had record snowfall iirc.


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  21. #1546
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster Highmen View Post
    Plus, I don't think he's an asshole, he's just trying to tamp down hysteria.
    I think he's a bit of an asshole, but I do agree that for the most part he is trying to tamp down hysteria. Climate change is real, but that doesn't mean that every extreme weather event is due to climate change. On the other hand Cliff seems extremely dead set in his view that none of this extreme weather has anything to do with climate change, and I think that's a bridge too far. Then again he's the professor and I'm the layman.

  22. #1547
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    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    I think he's a bit of an asshole, but I do agree that for the most part he is trying to tamp down hysteria. Climate change is real, but that doesn't mean that every extreme weather event is due to climate change. On the other hand Cliff seems extremely dead set in his view that none of this extreme weather has anything to do with climate change, and I think that's a bridge too far. Then again he's the professor and I'm the layman.
    Right? Climate change doesnt cause all problems, but the ocean, (being a degree or two warmer than its ever been), has no effect on weather?
    Well maybe I'm the faggot America
    I'm not a part of a redneck agenda

  23. #1548
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    I always thought his issue is that it takes a bunch of events and a bunch of time to verify climate change, that good science requires enough data to verify theories.

    The problem is that the media loves to get all wired up on individual events and pump up the hysteria because it makes for good copy and generates advertisement money. The battles with the writers at the Stranger got pretty heated because they were claiming to be the pundits on the matter. Premature and poorly cited theories are the fodder for deniers.

    He was one of the people who pointed out how the blob effected PNW weather, but also held back on insisting that the blob was really a consequence of climate change.
    Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
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  24. #1549
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    I think there's an interesting discussion to be had about Cliff's approach to tamping down hysteria and by-and-large I agree with that part of his platform. With one glaring exception: namely that as I understand it climate change doesn't "cause" individual climate events but does alter the probability of rare ones occurring, so it's almost always going to be true that rare events can be shown to be part of the historical record; however, that there are *more* rare events occurring is itself an effect of climate change.

    His climate commentary and expertise is not why I think he's an asshole. Hijinks like this are why I think that. That said, I don't think the reasons that I wouldn't want to hang out with Cliff are reasons not to take his meteorological expertise seriously.

  25. #1550
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptavv View Post
    I think there's an interesting discussion to be had about Cliff's approach to tamping down hysteria and by-and-large I agree with that part of his platform. With one glaring exception: namely that as I understand it climate change doesn't "cause" individual climate events but does alter the probability of rare ones occurring, so it's almost always going to be true that rare events can be shown to be part of the historical record; however, that there are *more* rare events occurring is itself an effect of climate change.
    Right, when you "shift the whole curve" all of a sudden those very rare tail events out a couple standard deviations in the bell curve become much more likely.

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