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Thread: Iran

  1. #26
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    ^^^Yup - big question is whether they side with the protesters, or side with themselves and seize power in a military coup?

  2. #27
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    Good question. I hadn't really considered the latter but yeah.

  3. #28
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    At least there isn’t a Shia Sunni dynamic there.
    No idea if IRGC leadership are True Believers - *guessing* the rank and file have been selected/indoctrinated to be, and to obey without question

    Then the question will be whether IRGC could subdue an already pissed off and organized opposition…

  4. #29
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    There are definitely differences in religion that play a role there and a major question is going to be how well the revolutionaries can tolerate and trust each other. Iran is much more diverse than the Mullahs would like. Including Kurds, Christians, and other minorities whose view of Islam is quite diverse:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/shirzannn...Cysezahp4sAAAA

    Couple days ago a since-deleted account on Twitter was asking people not to call them "protestors" but "revolutionaries." And not "Iran" etc but "the mullahs" or the Islamic Republic of Iran. Strange what sounds better or worse if you ask me, but given the acceleration of atrocities and attacks on civilians it makes sense that they'd decided to take up arms against the mullahs.

    What a mess. Best of luck to them, and may it be quick--the scale of this looks like quick revolution is the only hope to curtail massive bloodshed.

  5. #30
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    Christians comprise less than 0.5% of the population. I think there’s like 20k Jews left. Bahktiaris are like 1.5%.

    The Kurds OTOH, I hadn’t considered. Ten million in Iran. The best fighters in Western Asia, and have been trying to secure a homeland for a while.

  6. #31
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    Did you find a source you'd trust for those numbers? My understanding is that admitting to anything--even Shia Islam--can be fraught.

    I used to work for a family that had emigrated from Iran and they talked about the place like it was 1984--and still went back for visits! I'm still unsure who was what even though they were all open about it to a sometimes uncomfortable degree. My main lesson was IDK what those people are thinking. So take all that with salt. The link I posted is one of many openings to a whole warren if you want to peak down the rabbit hole.

  7. #32
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    I got the population numbers from
    https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...ran-population - note this sez 9000 Jews

    https://www.voanews.com/a/challenges...t/6326767.html sez 20,000 Jews

    Got number of Christians from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east...freely/2475243 - I"ve also seen estimates of 1.5 million Christians, from evangelical christian sources

    Got number of Kurds here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurds, which match up to the 10% estimates I've seen. I don't know the sunni/shia mix among the Kurds - further west they tend to be sunni

    You can argue around the edges of these numbers but it still doesn't matter - the population is at least 85% Shia. But again, the Kurds can be a force in their own right

    Wonder if the revolutionaries would be willing to cede NW Iran to the Kurds for a homeland if they help defeat the mullahs?

    Besides US/NATO intelligence on the ground trying to influence events, no doubt CCP is there too. Gotta believe Xi would like a secular government there. And fewer fanatics with nukes is in all the great powers interest

  8. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by TBS View Post
    I got the population numbers from
    https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...ran-population - note this sez 9000 Jews

    https://www.voanews.com/a/challenges...t/6326767.html sez 20,000 Jews

    Got number of Christians from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east...freely/2475243 - I"ve also seen estimates of 1.5 million Christians, from evangelical christian sources

    Got number of Kurds here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurds, which match up to the 10% estimates I've seen. I don't know the sunni/shia mix among the Kurds - further west they tend to be sunni

    You can argue around the edges of these numbers but it still doesn't matter - the population is at least 85% Shia. But again, the Kurds can be a force in their own right

    Wonder if the revolutionaries would be willing to cede NW Iran to the Kurds for a homeland if they help defeat the mullahs?

    Besides US/NATO intelligence on the ground trying to influence events, no doubt CCP is there too. Gotta believe Xi would like a secular government there. And fewer fanatics with nukes is in all the great powers interest
    I wasn't suggesting different numbers would be better, I'm more curious how reliable you expect sources to be. Like polling in Russia, the potential consequences for answering wrong are likely to influence results, so the methods and sources are of interest.

    I've seen a few types of in-fighting on Twitter over, for example, whether MEK can be trusted or if they're just like the mullahs. But at this distance (and given the potential for outside influences as you noted) it's hard to guess if that's actually real or a planted wedge trying to discourage unity among revolutionaries.

    I'm not sure if an inconveniently-timed revolution is necessarily something either CIA or Xi would actively support, but I'd put money on two things: Turkey doesn't want the Kurds to have a homeland anywhere, and Putin wants his drones-- and both of those parties are interested enough to meddle.

  9. #34
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    MEK has had an interesting history. Not sure where there money is coming from - guessing it's the diaspora in USA, but no real idea. And no idea how they are perceived by the Iranians.

    Revolutions make for strange bedfellows. And Great Powers interference, which will no doubt include Turkey.

  10. #35
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    It looks like MEK was very much supported by USSR through most of its existence and Russia after that for a while. And lately probably the US at times. Strange bedfellows indeed.

  11. #36
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    I worked with and eventually was employed by a family that immigrated from Iran when the Shah was overthrown. They lived on Long Island where a large number of Iranian Jews relocated, also a large population in LA. When I first met them in the mid 90"s they said they were Persian, I was totally stumped by what that meant. As I got to know them better they shared with me the family history, how they got here etc. What they didn't tell me was how they were able to get their assets out of Iran. They were a very prominent family in the community, the father published a "Persian Newsletter" to keep members of the community up to date on news, births, deaths etc. They always said there were about 25,000 Jews left in Iran. They said the number was small enough that they were pretty much left alone. The newsletter was sent to people in Iran, he was careful never to print anything that might be controversial or catch the attention of the authorities. That was the best job I ever had, wonderful people, couldn't be nicer or more generous.

  12. #37
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    Riot Police sent to put down a demonstration in Mahabad back the protesters
    https://twitter.com/thomasvlinge/sta...951112704?s=12

    There seems to be two Mahabads in Iran - one in western Iran (pop 168k) and another in Isfahan with pop of like 4K- guessing this happened in the larger town

  13. #38
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    Qatar doesn't seem like the best country for a soccer team to defect to. The hell they are going to catch back home, I can only imagine.
    Is it radix panax notoginseng? - splat

  14. #39
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  15. #40
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    Lulz. Iran demands the USA be kicked out of the World Cup for putting an Iran flag up without the Islam emblem in support of protesters.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  16. #41
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    USA wins geopolitical match vs IRAN so now Iran has to give up their nuclear capabilities and hand power over to the protesters.... yeah a dumb joke, but funny thing is afterwards protesters took to the streets in celebration of the Islamic Republic’s loss to Team USA while chanting for freedom.

  17. #42
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  18. #43
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    Sounds like Iran disbanded their morality police, so it would appear the protests are working. I wonder how far they'll have to go to satisfy the protesters.

  19. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by toast2266 View Post
    Sounds like Iran disbanded their morality police, so it would appear the protests are working. I wonder how far they'll have to go to satisfy the protesters.
    I’ve seen mixed things on that. An official says disbanded, state media says no. Hijab policy ‘under review’.

  20. #45
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    Sounds more like simply renamed. Wonder what the Chinese advisors are recommending?

  21. #46
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    "Build more drones for Putin"

  22. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by toast2266 View Post
    Sounds like Iran disbanded their morality police,
    Quote Originally Posted by PB View Post
    Sounds more like simply renamed. Wonder what the Chinese advisors are recommending?
    AI facial recognition and surveillance technology.

  23. #48
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    They executed the first protestor today. Kangaroo court and no due process.


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  24. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ski220 View Post
    AI facial recognition and surveillance technology.
    does that work on the women that survive acid attacks?

    Click image for larger version. 

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    j'ai des grands instants de lucididididididididi

  25. #50
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    JFC
    People disgust me......
    Mostly male fanatics, but by no means a monopoly.

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