TAHOE 22/23 -THE YEAR OF THE (t)RAM

[powpig]

My only comment on the proposed Vacancy Tax, did the Truckee Town Council even a consider what close to 100% capacity 100% of the time might do to traffic?

Any advice on skiing technique for suncups? Is it like moguls in reverse? Maybe snow blades?
We skied Beaver Bowl one Memorial Day and my fillings all fell out,

Luckily this is TGR and dentists are easy to find.

[NakedShorts]

Sometimes During this time of year I like to reflect on the season and ski real fucking fast!

That was fun today.

Not even close to our French buddy @159mph... damn though

[Eastside]

I once stood atop the speed skiing piste at Vars. I had no idea that's what it was at the time. I thought it looked pretty steep and a long way down. I did not consider tucking it.

[parkmeister]

It was all sun and fun today at SaT.
It was all clouds and snow last Wed at Mt Rose, which was even moar fun.

[HJ5]

Hope none of you all was trying to buy drugs in stateline today.
https://t.co/2KBu7ujCDs

We were driving up Kingsbury this morning to go to Heavenly and just about got ran off the road by three Douglas County Sheriff's coming up behind us. Figured with that level of urgency that it would be something like this... hate to say this, but a part of me was relieved when I saw that it was probably a drug deal gone bad, not someone shooting up the place

[HJ5]

If single family second homes were to become full time rentals or owner occupied I think the result would be Truckee becoming even more of a hub for working from home. The benefit to the local workfrce wuld be minimal. The emphasis should be on condos/apartments and ADU's. Maybe if you want to build or add on to a single family house you should have to build and ADU.

Have to begrudgingly agree with this. Truckee is small enough that people working for Forest Service, Tahoe-Donner Land Trust, or other similar line of work would still not stand a chance against the onslaught of digital nomads.

I've seen that Great Basin Institute (contractor w/ the FS, provides the bulk of Forest Service technician labor during the summer) is starting to rent out entire houses in the area (Truckee/South Lake) for seasonals. I was honestly shocked to see this, but it seems like a pretty progressive solution and I'm nearly certain that it'll help with recruitment and retention for these positions.

And for the record (unrelated to your comment Old Goat), it should be a crime for an individual to own more than two homes. The pressure these types of people put on housing stock is far and above the pressure that comes from larger investors. Even in Carson City we deal with people who are buying their third, fourth, fifth home and sitting on it just because they want somewhere to park their wealth and avoid paying income taxes. Should be criminal behavior

[gone2alpine]

Amen...preach brother!

And for the record (unrelated to your comment Old Goat), it should be a crime for an individual to own more than two homes. The pressure these types of people put on housing stock is far and above the pressure that comes from larger investors.

[bodywhomper]

I wonder if one could argue that a truckee vacant tax is a “project” under CEQA, requiring a CEQA analysis. It seems like the tax could have a sort of growth inducing effect. A goal could be to consider infrastructure improvements as a result of the potential of a population “increase.” /thinking out loud.

Other than the zones that slid on the rain crust, resort conditions are pretty awesome!

[Buster Highmen]

And for the record (unrelated to your comment Old Goat), it should be a crime for an individual to own more than two homes. The pressure these types of people put on housing stock is far and above the pressure that comes from larger investors.

But it should be OK for banks and large corporations to own as many houses as they want? It's interesting to see the distribution of REIT owned homes versus induhvidual owned homes.


The list, which you can see here, draws verbatim from HCAD records. It’s relatively inscrutable. While the three largest property owners are public-sector entities, the Top 100 list mostly contains limited liability corporations (LLCs) and limited partnerships (LPs). The first non-corporate “human name” to appear is at No. 44 (“PFIRMAN RICHARD L,” 311 properties), and it is the only “human name” in the top 100.

https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/wh...now-about-them

[HJ5]

That is obviously shitty too because it prevents people from owning homes who want/could buy a home.

But at the very least those houses are still available to provide shelter to someone. The issue with wealthy people who own several homes is that they don't do anything with them. They sit vacant most of the time and function as a tax dodge. And yea, most of those homes are probably not within the price range of your typical skier (renter, owner whatever). But that still has downstream effects on the housing market around here.

[HJ5]

Hadn't been to the resort in a few weeks, this is from yesterday. It is just getting dumb at Heave.

Anyone here do the Gunbarrel 25? Checked it out yesterday, seemed like it'd be pretty fun most years but was probably punishing yesterday. Bumps were hard AF all day.

[Buster Highmen]

That is obviously shitty too because it prevents people from owning homes who want/could buy a home.

But at the very least those houses are still available to provide shelter to someone. The issue with wealthy people who own several homes is that they don't do anything with them. They sit vacant most of the time and function as a tax dodge. And yea, most of those homes are probably not within the price range of your typical skier (renter, owner whatever). But that still has downstream effects on the housing market around here.

In the age of social media, it's so simple and popular to blame the individual. People and personalities are so much easier of a target than policies.

For my changed nickel, I think low interest loans and easy mortgages have a lot to do with the housing crisis, let alone the inflation that has pended for so long and is finally being recognized in bloom. That and the fact that the taxes around the investment economy are simply not on par with taxes for the working class.

Anyway, let's try to think a little more critically rather than making shallow sweeping generalizations whose fables are rife with foibles.

Most of the time I figure it boils down to the observation that there's just too many assholes like me.

[jackstraw]

I think low interest loans and easy mortgages have a lot to do with the housing crisis.

Absolutely. The return on leveraged rental homes made a ton of economical sense when combined with the lack of housing. To get in that game didn't take a lot of cash either.

[mogul5480]

Somehow TGR has actually pretty thoughtful discourse on housing policy

1) Almost all of the short term rentals (STR) in Tahoe (and everywhere else) are owned by individual investors. The business is too new and too difficult to finance for institutions to have gotten too deep in the game. That was changing a bit in 2021-2022 as the most successful individual AirBnB owners scaled up into institutional capital, or partnered outright with them (see: Saluda Grade funding Avant Stay), but it's a far cry from the long-term rental SFR game referred to in the Rice article posted above. That stuff is almost all in Vegas, Phoenix, TX, and the Southeast.

2) I would venture to guess that the majority of STRs are owned by vacation home owners with one or two places at most. STR on a standalone basis for an investor is a fairly volatile (and, as discussed, not terribly financable investment). By contrast, if you were already in the market for a vacation home for personal consumption and appreciation potential, STR is a godsend. It makes the cost of ownership wildly cheaper.

#2 is probably what reconciles two seamingly competing narratives: The roads and slopes are too damn crowded and the rent is too damn high. In other words, STR makes prices go up because it makes it cheaper to carry a vacation home. It ALSO invites more people into the area, because homes that historically were vacant except on holiday weekends can now be booked through STR every day. Believe it or not, this is actually a pretty much Pareto-optimal outcome (ie good for everyone), EXCEPT those of us earning "excess utility" by living somewhere rad before it was discovered by other people!

This is why a vacancy tax will do very little to address the fundamental issue, which is a shortage of housing, transportation, and recreation infrastructure relative to current demand. What they really need to do is take the extra tax revenue from all this growth and reinvest it in:

1) Housing - all kinds. Workforce. Middle Class. Luxury. Multifamily. Single Family. All of it.
2) Public transportation - We need, at the very least, very reliable bus service from Truckee to various ski resorts and points on the north and east shore, and all around South Lake / Myers and down to Kirkwood. With enormous parking lots in wide open places off the highway (UTA bus in the Cottonwoods is the guide here). There's even an argument for a light rail for the North Lake portion, a la Chamonix.
3) More skiing - I'm going to beat this drum until someone listens. Sugar Bowl / Boreal / Donner should be a massive interconnected complex with a village the size of Vail (if not Whistler). 88 needs a Northstar-style resort on the west side of the Spur. Tahoe should look like Chamonix or Les Trois Vallees from an infrastructure perspective.

If you can push back on the NIMBYs to increase Tahoe's overall carrying capacity, you will create an economic incentive for convenient train service from Sac and the Bay, which will relieve highway 80 traffic and reduce emissions. We need to get out of our own way and build stuff again.

[Buster Highmen]

1) Almost all of the short term rentals (STR) in Tahoe (and everywhere else) are owned by individual investors.

Is there data to back that up? I've read about REITs targeting that market.

I don't have any data to back up surmising that in lots of destination resorts, large firms saw the investment opportunities for condos and apartments and may have converted to STRs from LTRs.

Just wondering.

This is why a vacancy tax will do very little to address the fundamental issue, which is a shortage of housing, transportation, and recreation infrastructure relative to current demand. What they really need to do is take the extra tax revenue from all this growth and reinvest it in:

1) Housing - all kinds. Workforce. Middle Class. Luxury. Multifamily. Single Family. All of it.
2) Public transportation - We need, at the very least, very reliable bus service from Truckee to various ski resorts and points on the north and east shore, and all around South Lake / Myers and down to Kirkwood. With enormous parking lots in wide open places off the highway (UTA bus in the Cottonwoods is the guide here). There's even an argument for a light rail for the North Lake portion, a la Chamonix.
3) More skiing - I'm going to beat this drum until someone listens. Sugar Bowl / Boreal / Donner should be a massive interconnected complex with a village the size of Vail (if not Whistler). 88 needs a Northstar-style resort on the west side of the Spur. Tahoe should look like Chamonix or Les Trois Vallees from an infrastructure perspective.

If you can push back on the NIMBYs to increase Tahoe's overall carrying capacity, you will create an economic incentive for convenient train service from Sac and the Bay, which will relieve highway 80 traffic and reduce emissions. We need to get out of our own way and build stuff again.

Sounds awfully practical. The hard part is how public funds can be directed to affordable housing. Relaxing zoning may help, despite the howl of the nimbys. The other obstacle is keeping retaining the sense of nature.
So many other "solutions" only make the experience more expensive.

Please excuse my ravings and return to the all time snowpocalypse.

[mogul5480]

Re: STR data. I don't have data off hand, but it does exist. What I do know is that there is no STR version of Invitation Homes or equivalent (publicly traded REIT with 80k single family homes).

Re: sense of nature. Totally agree. Tahoe area needs to choose between being empty and natural and the exclusive domain of the ultra rich (like Jackson Hole) or being accessible to the merely upper middle class (like the aforementioned places in Yurp). What it ain't gonna be is what it has been - "our little secret". Ski bum living circa 1995 is just not viable in a world-class zone near a major metro area in 2023. Too many people want the life, and it has to be rationed one way or the other - by price or by sharing it.

Also - it appears we may possibly get a little snow this week.

[LongShortLong]

Also - it appears we may possibly get a little snow this week.

Two feet, three feet, four foot, more!

[Buster Highmen]

Re: STR data. I don't have data off hand, but it does exist. What I do know is that there is no STR version of Invitation Homes or equivalent (publicly traded REIT with 80k single family homes).

You must mean limited to Tahoe/Truckee/SLT/Carson/etc? Relative to "everywhere else" I have my doubts about the claim.

Re: sense of nature. Totally agree. Tahoe area needs to choose between being empty and natural and the exclusive domain of the ultra rich (like Jackson Hole) or being accessible to the merely upper middle class (like the aforementioned places in Yurp). What it ain't gonna be is what it has been - "our little secret". Ski bum living circa 1995 is just not viable in a world-class zone near a major metro area in 2023. Too many people want the life, and it has to be rationed one way or the other - by price or by sharing it.

Also - it appears we may possibly get a little snow this week.

Seems like we have to accept the Yurp model for housing density and transportation to have a hope. I'm also told that's "just not possible".

[bodywhomper]

We all need to take care of the wildfire hazard, evacuation, and emergency vehicle accessproblem of the Tahoe basin. That needs to happen ASAP and before we add a lot more housing. Can anybody imagine what it’ll be like for emergency access vehicles and evacuation if there is an earthquake this weekend with the snowloads and the possible avalanches resulting from a large EQ?

[GuyonaBuffalo]

Agreed. As a local I think Truckee needs to follow the European ski town model of density. More of the town should look like old town with multiunit tall buildings over shops. And we need regular and frequent (not free) public transit on 89. Maybe even more regular trains into Truckee to reduce tourons without chains on i80. Boreal / DSR could conceivably merge; maybe Soda Springs too. But I don't see SB going with them: completely different resort with different terrain/guests. SB has the homeowner issue which is always gonna reduce number of passes sold every day (big days now get 3000-4000 guests rather than the old days of 8000). But if SB wants to expand they should throw a lift backside of Lincoln or Judah; would be a lot more useful than unifying with DSR which isn't even connected and has a terrible record with avy mitigation.

[Core Shot]

The guy on a buffalo is a truckee local?

[~mikey b]

isn’t everyone?

[powdork]

I think Angle Parking said some of his posts were showing up as guy on a buffalo.


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[janky]

Storm day today. Starting snowing in Truckee quite nicely the last hour. Gonna do some storm skiing today for a bit and then ready the legs for tomorrow ⛷️

[old goat]

Y
Seems like we have to accept the Yurp model for housing density and transportation to have a hope. I'm also told that's "just not possible".

Exactly. People don't degrade the environment. Cars and sprawl do. There is only so much land close to town centers for housing. Places like Lahontan and Martis Camp are obscene. We should be severely limiting lot sizes--both to allow more housing without sprawl and facilitate mass transit, (The state has already banned single family detached housing only zoning.) And while we're at it, limit square footage. Go back to previously built developments that had workforce or low income housing mitigations that were never built and enforce the mitigations. Multifamily and other dense developments should be incentivized. The area can easily hold more people; it cannot hold more cars, and the ONLY transportation projects that should be done are mass transit. For any new single family housing limit tha allowed parking spots and ban overnight parking on the ROW. (Truckee has banned STR parking on the ROW and overnight parking along Donner Lake on the south side of DPR.)

Mogul may not be aware but the issue of new STR's is dead in Truckee (but not Placer), at least for now. The number of STR's is capped at current. The only exception will be offering new certificates to people willing to build workforce hosuing on another site. That program is not yet up and running.

As far as expanding ski resorts--mogul can bang the drum all he wants, it's not happening. Skiing is a dying sport (climate change, at least in CA) for rich people. Available land for skiing is almost all public and the public is not going to stand for expanding resorts or building new ones on our land. One thing the coverage of the Paltrow trial should tell us is how the genera public sees skiing.

As far as Nimbyism--if you go to Truckee council meetings or read the Sun and Moonshine Ink--there is virtually none of that. The ony example I can think of recenty is the objections of the old neighborhood to the Grocery Outlet, because of concerns re middle of the night deliveries. (I don't know if there was any mitigation for that like limiting hours for deliveries.) People here understand the need for workforce housing and what that means for density and height.