Monkey Flu

[Core Shot]

The results are in. Monkeypox will now officially be called “Schlong Covid.”

Heh. Heh.
Vibes to the butthole surfers that get monkeypox. It sucks.
Just stop fucking strangers. Problem solved.

[DBdude]

The cdc recommends keeping your clothes on




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[DBdude]

This was considered men positive advise

I am not making this up


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[SumJongGuy]

In all seriousness, I don't think it's as much about hetero/homo as it is about how sexually active a person is.. Sames as AIDS, it starts out clustered in that highly active demographic, but will reach all of the others eventually. The daycare case is pretty alarming. You can get it handling someone's clothes, a handshake, high five, hugging a friend or colleague. Don't laugh too hard, it also transfers via face to face talking droplets, coughing,etc... Any one of us could get it tomorrow.

[Core Shot]

No doubt it can be hetero.

There’s an enchanted forest nearby where gay men get their dick sucked by random strangers.
I always wished there was a forest where a random girl would suck my dick.

[DBdude]

Phish show?


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[LongShortLong]

The results are in. Monkeypox will now officially be called “Schlong Covid.”

Heh. Heh.
Vibes to the butthole surfers that get monkeypox. It sucks.
Just stop fucking strangers. Problem solved.

Am I allowed to laff? I did.

Let's hope CDC stops dicking around gets their butts moving.

[summit]

8 weeks ago, LSL was predicting we'd have many thousands of cases per day by now.

8 weeks ago I said that what is happening now would be the case.

What we are experiencing now is an unusual outbreak where the pathogen has entered a high susceptibility subgroup. The reproduction trends currently seen will not generalize to the global population resulting in the exponential spread... Instead Monkeypox will fizzle, spark, and smolder

We have have 18K total cumulative cases. I suspect the epi curve will continue flat to down, hopefully down.

[Mofro261]

The trend was evident in the EU and UK by mid-July, with the US lagging ~4 weeks behind.





Increased awareness, and (mostly) behavior modification, along with population targeted vaccination.

Possible first fatality in the US in a severely immunocompromised individual being reported, and something crazy like 30-40% of those infected also HIV+.

[Core Shot]

What if we put the vaccine in poppers.

Like feeding mayonnaise to tuna fish

[LongShortLong]

8 weeks ago, LSL was predicting we'd have many thousands of cases per day by now.

You forgot my qualifier - "if the growth rate continues." And the usual disclaimer about future results.

And the growth has indeed slowed. I considered posting about it a couple weeks ago, but this thread was off the front page and I didn't care enough. From your graph, it looks like the exponential phase has ended. If it stays that way, monkeypox may remain a minor disease (unless you catch it).

Usual disclaimer about future results.

[summit]

and 6 weeks ago

The observed monkeypox behavior is 10 times growth per month. If we don't quickly slow and stop that growth, most of the susceptible population will be infected, and soon. Monkeypox has already escaped its traditional hosts. We're looking at millions of additional opportunities for a beneficial mutation and further escape. Well, 10's or 100's of millions worldwide. (Implicit guess between 1% and 10% of us are MSMs or close contacts)

The "experts" appear to not recognize the exponential growth threat. It is present, immediate, and real. On the current trajectory, the problem will be 1000 times worse in a few months.

5 weeks ago

I say he's another expert who can't do math. Using a similar projection to that I used earlier, we could be at 25,000 cumulative cases by Labor Day, perhaps a bit earlier. Thanksgiving might see 20 million (if the growth trend continues).

My projection : https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox. Add the United States. Change the y axis to log scale. Note the curve appears linear - that means it's spreading exponentially, and not slowing down. Note cases grow about 10x per month. 2500 today, 25,000 next month, 250k in September, etc.

Standard disclaimer about forward looking statements, especially so with projecting exponential growth. I'm unconvinced this will stay in MSMs. It's already being seen in their close contacts. Even if it does, it's unclear we run out of susceptible population before 20 million cases, though probably?

5 weeks ago

every month we wait, there's 10 times more people who will need it. Logically, there's really no threshold where we start to use it. If there were a threshold, surely it's best to use those vaccines now when the fewest number of people need to be vaccinated.

Harping on the problem... it's not the current number of people infected, it's that there will be ten times more next month, hundred times more the month after that, 1000x in three months, etc. If we're going to do anything, the time to act is yesterday, and since we didn't, today is time to act. Every day we don't act, the problem is bigger.

Based on current actions, we have accepted that all the MSMs and some of their contacts will get monkeypox. Also, we've accepted the risk monkeypox escapes that subgroup sometime during the course of all those infections and all those virus replications.

4 weeks ago

People starting to recognize problems...They also noted cases doubling in two weeks. ... I want some credit for old man yelling at the clouds - for observing the doubling rate, and the pattern, a month ago.

3 weeks ago

Let's hope CDC stops dicking around gets their butts moving.

Today

You forgot my qualifier

Well of course! Your "qualifier" is literally a "I'm right unless I'm wrong." Your caveat was literally the opposite the basis of your argued position: that growth rates would continue. You believed the growth rates would continue, that it would spill outside of a MSM subgroup and continue at these rates.

I and others theorized that would not be the case, based on our understanding of the subject.

[Cisco Kid]

I'm not as close to the gay community as I was 5 years back but I'd suspect that as this pox doesn't require the sex act to spread, this downward trend is pushed by a behavior modification in avoiding all the touchy, kissy, feely greetings and group hugs. Miss those parties. Party food was to die for and too much of it.

[summit]

We've given 20x the number of vaccine doses as there are cases of illness. Given the ring vaccination (post-exposure prophylaxis) and high risk (pre-exposure prophylaxis) strategies, this likely greatly benefited the multi-type self and group behavior modification through a huge awareness and media campaign plus other public health interventions like contact tracing and isolating.

[jono]

We've given 20x the number of vaccine doses as there are cases of illness. Given the ring vaccination (post-exposure prophylaxis) and high risk (pre-exposure prophylaxis) strategies, this likely greatly benefited the multi-type self and group behavior modification through a huge awareness and media campaign plus other public health interventions like contact tracing and isolating.

Thanks Longshortlong for helping spread the word.

[Gcooker]

and 6 weeks ago


5 weeks ago


5 weeks ago


4 weeks ago


3 weeks ago


Today


Well of course! Your "qualifier" is literally a "I'm right unless I'm wrong." Your caveat was literally the opposite the basis of your argued position: that growth rates would continue. You believed the growth rates would continue, that it would spill outside of a MSM subgroup and continue at these rates.

I and others theorized that would not be the case, based on our understanding of the subject.

This is a hall of fame worthy take down....

[PB]

This is a hall of fame worthy take down....

Word.

[SumJongGuy]

This is a hall of fame worthy take down....

I'm just glad it wasn't me...

[LongShortLong]

Well of course! Your "qualifier" is literally a "I'm right unless I'm wrong." Your caveat was literally the opposite the basis of your argued position: that growth rates would continue. You believed the growth rates would continue, that it would spill outside of a MSM subgroup and continue at these rates.

My argument was a simple projection of the growth rate, and a call to do something about it. Also, an observation that at that time, there was no sign the early efforts were effective. I never argued I was right about anything except what exponential growth does, and how quickly it does it. And given that, we needed a stronger response sooner. (several agencies declared public health emergencies subsequently)

Projections are almost always "wrong." And I called this out in my posts. Projections are meant for recognizing possible futures. I don't want to see a repeat of Covid's early mistakes, poohpoohing the small number of cases while ignoring the growth.

Currently daily cases appear to be slowly falling, so poohpoohing is less risky now. If the trend continues, we'll eventually extinguish monkeypox, and most will never have a case. <-- also a projection, I hope it's correct.

I'm sorry, not sorry, that the monkeypox pandemic is not matching my projection. That was and is my true hope.

[summit]

not sorry, that the monkeypox pandemic is not matching my projection.

Hey we can agree on that!