Wtf is up with this Chinese air crash?

**Timberridge** · 03-23-2022, 01:47 PM

Originally Posted by fomofo

I can only try and imagine, but between the stress of the failure situation and the pure physical effort that must be involved that doesn't seem surprising. Respect!

Manual Reversion Flight Control System (MRFCS) Switch:

If the aircraft has suffered dual hydraulic system failure, the MRFCS is a back up control system using direct cable linkages to the pitch and yaw control surface actuators. Roll control is provided through the aileron trim tabs. This provides the ability for moderate maneuvering. MRFCS is activated by placing the MRFCS switch in the MAN REVERSION position (down). When in the up FLT CONT NORM position, flight input control acts normally.

The important thing here is that your elevator/rudder control is now directly linked to how hard you can pull back on the stick or kick the pedals, and the only aileron control is coming from your trim tabs. You're flying with limited control authority. You need to do your best to try and stay "ahead" of the jet and anticipate what it's going to try and do next and what you'll need to do to counter it.

For the non-pilots here on TGR, this would be akin to a power steering pump and brake vacuum boost failure on a '92 Outback or Tacoma whilst coming around a bend on Teton Pass Hwy?

**fomofo** · 03-23-2022, 04:50 PM

With all due respect to Captain Stryker, and the seriousness of the subject matter of this thread...

**Ted Striker** · 03-23-2022, 06:22 PM

Originally Posted by Timberridge

For the non-pilots here on TGR, this would be akin to a power steering pump and brake vacuum boost failure on a '92 Outback or Tacoma whilst coming around a bend on Teton Pass Hwy?

If mishandled, it could go full Pio.

**billyk** · 03-23-2022, 06:36 PM

They found one of the black boxes. Guess we’ll find out what happened in 6 months or so.

Anyone know where the data from that flightradar24 graph comes from? Is it from some external source such as radar on the ground, or does it use data being reported from a transponder on the plane itself?

Edit: data comes mostly from ADS-B transponder on the plane, or potentially other sources if that isn’t available. Looks like plenty of opportunities for data to get screwed up.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flightradar24

**billyk** · 03-23-2022, 06:55 PM

This article has another flightradar24 graph that shows more details around the time of the crash that make the “glitch” look more plausible. Maybe a struggle in the cockpit?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ls-as-jet-dove

**Benny Profane** · 03-23-2022, 07:10 PM

That graphic emphasizes that little up and back down near the end. Bizarre. But, talk about g forces and weightlessness at that point.

**SumJongGuy** · 03-23-2022, 07:51 PM

Originally Posted by billyk

This article has another flightradar24 graph that shows more details around the time of the crash that make the “glitch” look more plausible. Maybe a struggle in the cockpit?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ls-as-jet-dove

I had that thought looking at the first one.. Other pilot woke up and grabbed the controls for a few seconds.. before getting bashed in the head again,, Man, the flight cocpit recording is going to be horrific no matter what, but if it's like the German pilot banging on the door pleading with the insane suicidal co pilot to let him back in to the cockpit?? That was awful..

**billyk** · 03-24-2022, 02:23 AM

The other thing to consider with either of those flightradar24 graphs is how much of it are actual data points that came directly from the transponder and how much is interpolation between the data points. It’s hard to tell how much is real, and how much was created by some curve fitting algorithm (or perhaps reporter/editor).

**tango uniform** · 03-25-2022, 03:59 PM

It’s not looking good for the retrieval of any data from the CVR.

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**SeatownSlackey** · 03-25-2022, 05:31 PM

^ source?

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**abraham** · 03-25-2022, 05:49 PM

Originally Posted by Summer

AvHerald's usually got their finger on the pulse of these things: http://avherald.com/h?article=4f64be2f&opt=0

"On Mar 25th 2022 the CAAC reported in the 5th press conference, that the gear box of an engine as well as the main landing gear have been found and recovered. Some of the aircraft parts showed traces of fire. The CVR's memory chip is damaged and needs to be sent to the chip manufacturer for repair according to recommendation by the manufacturer. At this time there are no time estimates of when the data can be downloaded."

Thanks, the pictures are useful at the bottom. As I understand one of the two recorders has been found. Is that how you read it? This note looks like it could be important.

On Mar 24th 2022 the CAAC reported in their 4th press conference, that a large piece of debris (1.3 meters by 0.1 meters) from the aircraft was found in farmland at Yatang Squad (coordinates N23.3111 E111.0002) in Siwang Village (coordinates N23.3054 E110.9711), about 14km west of the crash site and about 2.7km south of the last ADS-B position in cruise flight at 29100 feet MSL (it needs to be pointed out, we don't know whether this separated before or after the dive at this time). The main debris at the crash site otherwise is confined within 30 meters radius, 20 meters deep. At this time it is not yet clear whether the data of the already recovered black box can be read out, there is damage to the storage unit.

PB · 03-25-2022, 06:22 PM

20 METERS DEEP?!?!?!

**tango uniform** · 03-25-2022, 06:41 PM

I’m speculating.

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**dannynoonan** · 03-25-2022, 07:06 PM

Originally Posted by PB

20 METERS DEEP?!?!?!

I read somewhere that rainfall was filling up the crater that the plane made upon impact, which was hampering the investigation. Sort of a pond, or a pool, if you will. But yeah, 20m is really fucking deep, that's like, meteor crater territory.

**abraham** · 03-25-2022, 08:43 PM

Originally Posted by dannynoonan

I read somewhere that rainfall was filling up the crater that the plane made upon impact, which was hampering the investigation. Sort of a pond, or a pool, if you will. But yeah, 20m is really fucking deep, that's like, meteor crater territory.

I think that one site was on a hill changes the depth measurement a bit. Not to say it's not a big fucking crater.

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**Benny Profane** · 03-25-2022, 08:58 PM

They were saying for the first few days they didn't find survivors, but, fuck, I'd be impressed if they found any large body parts.

**idahospud** · 03-25-2022, 09:04 PM

ADS-B data can generally be expected to be worth what you've paid for it.

billyk sums it up pretty well re: what FR24 might be doing with the data. If you're able to look something up online and it has a pretty plot of something, chances are it's not raw data being shown.

**The AD** · 04-12-2022, 02:22 PM

It's a rumor at this point, but there's been some reporting that the co-pilot may have been responsible based on evidence from the black box.

**summit** · 04-12-2022, 02:31 PM

I'm chuckling at the beating BA is taking over this and the 757 that went off the runway. Sillyness.

**4matic** · 04-12-2022, 02:42 PM

Originally Posted by Summit

I'm chuckling at the beating BA is taking over this and the 757 that went off the runway. Sillyness.

It just makes the fundamentals more troubling. Still trading at a 57 forward PE.

EPS (TTM) -7.15

P/E (TTM)-24.66

Fwd P/E (NTM)57.48

EBITDA (TTM)915.00M

ROE (TTM)1,503.49%

Revenue (TTM)62.286

Gross Margin (TTM) 4.84%

Net Margin (TTM) -6.89%

Debt To Equity (MRQ)-387.37%

**dunfree** · 04-12-2022, 02:46 PM

Fundamentals are an out of production 757 crashed and someone fucking up in a newer model 737? Sweet trailing indicator

**SumJongGuy** · 04-12-2022, 02:50 PM

Originally Posted by The AD

It's a rumor at this point, but there's been some reporting that the co-pilot may have been responsible based on evidence from the black box.

That voice recording will be horrific to listen to no matter what happened..

**The AD** · 04-12-2022, 02:58 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

It just makes the fundamentals more troubling. Still trading at a 57 forward PE.

EPS (TTM) -7.15

P/E (TTM)-24.66

Fwd P/E (NTM)57.48

EBITDA (TTM)915.00M

ROE (TTM)1,503.49%

Revenue (TTM)62.286

Gross Margin (TTM) 4.84%

Net Margin (TTM) -6.89%

Debt To Equity (MRQ)-387.37%

What does all this mean in layman's terms?

**4matic** · 04-12-2022, 03:06 PM

Earnings per share were -$7 last year. Based on their current earnings it is trading at 57 forward PE ratio vs the SP500 at 25. Plus, they have a net loss on sales margin. The longer there are delays and so forth the longer it is for them to recover a premium multiple. The duopoly with Airbus gives it extra value but the premium, again, has been pushed way out. Remember that BA traded sub $100 a couple years ago.