Ukraine

[HukuTa_KydecHuk]

From Institute for study of war - doesn’t sound like things are going very well behind the lines…


https://understandingwar.org/backgro...essment-june-3

yeah, just today it was proven to be all fake. Just an example of how media works now. This milblogger actually wrote a post in his blog, based on some "inside source". He hasn't even been near Izum, never witnessed anything that he described. Several other milbloggers raised lot of concerns about his "inside source" accuracy. Moreover, this guy is known for his apocalyptic forecasts in the past which never became real. Institute for study of war just reposted this dude without even trying to verify if his info is correct. I guess that says a lot about ISW credibility...

[My Pet Powder Goat]

From wikipedia "In a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in the first half of February 2014, 25.8% of those polled in eastern Ukraine believed that "Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state", nationwide this percentage was 12.5%."

why don't you poll them again, genius.



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[jono]

yeah, just today it was proven to be all fake. Just an example of how media works now. This milblogger actually wrote a post in his blog, based on some "inside source". He hasn't even been near Izum, never witnessed anything that he described. Several other milbloggers raised lot of concerns about his "inside source" accuracy. Moreover, this guy is known for his apocalyptic forecasts in the past which never became real. Institute for study of war just reposted this dude without even trying to verify if his info is correct. I guess that says a lot about ISW credibility...

ISW noted they couldn't independently verify it and reported the fact that the blogger had said it. When you read that you shouldn't think "ISW believes this is true" because that's not what they're saying--fog of war, at a minimum, should be assumed by anyone who bothers to pay attention at all.

Instead of that, understand that what's said by pro-Russian media is an indirect measure of the propaganda war within Russia. Take the stated "facts" with a grain of salt because whether they're true or not conditions may change quickly anyway. ISW knows that (and don't spend much time looking back for that reason) and assumes you do, too.

In a way, yes, this is how media works today: the intended audience is expected to be smarter than they are because more specialized "media" sources are more accessible to lay people (who really aren't the intended audience). If you're going to peer into specialized discussions (of any type) you should expect a different kind of discussion: jargon and a common background in "the basics," among other things. Meanwhile other media sources are racking up clicks telling you that you can only trust them and all other sources of information are lies. Those are the sources to avoid.

[highangle]

Tonight on Thunderdome, more wholesome Russian state-TV nuclear comedy...

[skip to 2:18]





From comments:

Severodonetsk is heavily mined with modern anti-armor mines. They spent weeks setting up an anti-tank mine and artillery attack. They have mines from several different countries, and several different types. There are smart fuzes available for old inventory anti-tank mines. Manufacturers now have smart mine networks. So they set up minefields for armor, withdrew, let the armor come in, then opened up with artillery. Russians will run over mines at full throttle to escape from being shelled.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Quite the visualization, even has the sinking of the Moskva:



(Video)
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/sta...qNzMUa_ZwwQ33g

[LongShortLong]

Sorry I lost track of the original tweeter/link

A lesser discussed topic about Putin's motivation is economic. Oil and Gas produces something like 90% of Russian corporate profits. The kleptocracy thrives on what it can steal (i.e. those profits). Starting this war has vastly increased the profitability of oil and gas exports - production cost about same, sale price way up, volume down only slightly. Additionally, warring in Ukraine prevents future competition in the European energy market - the exploration and development of Ukraine's oil and gas. Also, the likely successful conquest (well not as likely as it looked in Feb) brings the future possibility of Russian profits on Ukraine's oil and gas.

Also pointed out Russia's slow walking of European oil and gas contracts last year, letting them bleed their reserves.

This author also cited massive coal reserves in Donbas, and various other important minerals. However, the primary point centered on the European oil and gas market, as that's where most of the money is. And the strategic point is that Putin doesn't care a whole lot about how the war goes or whether he achieves a military or political victory in Ukraine. He's winning an economic victory regardless.

[highangle]

Sorry I lost track of the original tweeter/link

A lesser discussed topic about Putin's motivation is economic. Oil and Gas produces something like 90% of Russian corporate profits. The kleptocracy thrives on what it can steal (i.e. those profits). Starting this war has vastly increased the profitability of oil and gas exports - production cost about same, sale price way up, volume down only slightly.

Russia’s Oil Production Has Plunged Even As Its Revenue Climbs

By Tsvetana Paraskova - May 25, 2022, 6:00 PM CDT

• A combination of sanctions and an oil major exodus in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine has caused Russian oil production to plunge.
• While higher oil and natural gas prices have sent its revenues to new highs, its production is likely to shrink significantly in the long term.
• Analysts believe the country could lose up to 3 million barrels per day of production in the second half of the year, but Russia claims it is boosting production already.

Russian oil production has been falling since its invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s crude producers are struggling to place all their oil on the market—especially the European one—and domestic refinery throughput is also slumping amid lower demand. Despite this, rising oil and gas prices have resulted in record-high oil and gas revenues for Russia.
The biggest Russian oil producer, Rosneft, is also the biggest loser in the decline of oil production as it runs into difficulties with selling all its oil abroad and increasing crude processing at home, according to industry data and data from the Russian Energy Ministry calculated by Bloomberg.
Rosneft—led by a long-time ally of Vladimir Putin’s, Igor Sechin—is suffering from a combination of lower exports, lower refinery runs domestically, and the exodus of Western oil firms from joint projects in Russia following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia claims that it has started restoring output lost in the past two months and that it is finding a home for its oil away from Europe.
Yet, analysts reckon that Russia’s oil production could lose 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of 2022, and its production is set to be impacted for years by the sanctions its largest market—Europe—is imposing. Some wells that have been shut down since the invasion of Ukraine at the end of February may never return to produce oil again, permanently eroding some of Russia’s spare production capacity, analysts say.
In the middle of May, Russia’s oil production was 830,000 bpd lower than it was in February. Rosneft—the top producer and the top refiner in Russia—accounted for 560,000 bpd of this drop, data from the energy ministry compiled and calculated by Bloomberg showed.
Moreover, the share of Rosneft’s idled wells jumped from 17% of all wells at the start of the year to as much as 30% in April. Idled wells at Rosneft’s unit Bashneft accounted for 55% of all Bashneft wells in April, per industry data Bloomberg has seen.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russias-Oil-Production-Has-Plunged-Even-As-Its-Revenue-Climbs.html

Additionally, warring in Ukraine prevents future competition in the European energy market - the exploration and development of Ukraine's oil and gas. Also, the likely successful conquest (well not as likely as it looked in Feb) brings the future possibility of Russian profits on Ukraine's oil and gas.

Assumes a static state of Euro gas usage and supplies circa 1/22, that Pootin's ill-considered fuckedup invasion will magically stop losing, that somebody will buy Russian blood oil...

Is this the same 'source' that told you Ukraine is full of Nazis back in January?

Also pointed out Russia's slow walking of European oil and gas contracts last year, letting them bleed their reserves.

So does a rising futures price. "Jus sayin'. " -- Wm. of Occam

This author also cited massive coal reserves in Donbas, and various other important minerals. However, the primary point centered on the European oil and gas market, as that's where most of the money is. And the strategic point is that Putin doesn't care a whole lot about how the war goes or whether he achieves a military or political victory in Ukraine. He's winning an economic victory regardless.

Khrushchev was from Donetsk. EU has agreed to reduce Russian o&g purchases by 75% by eoy. Britain has massive coal reserves too. Germany and France has plenty enough coal to make all the steel they want - Europe has to get in a bad state to go back to coal for electric power generation.

[rod9301]

Russia’s Oil Production Has Plunged Even As Its Revenue Climbs

By Tsvetana Paraskova - May 25, 2022, 6:00 PM CDT

• A combination of sanctions and an oil major exodus in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine has caused Russian oil production to plunge.
• While higher oil and natural gas prices have sent its revenues to new highs, its production is likely to shrink significantly in the long term.
• Analysts believe the country could lose up to 3 million barrels per day of production in the second half of the year, but Russia claims it is boosting production already.

Russian oil production has been falling since its invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s crude producers are struggling to place all their oil on the market—especially the European one—and domestic refinery throughput is also slumping amid lower demand. Despite this, rising oil and gas prices have resulted in record-high oil and gas revenues for Russia.
The biggest Russian oil producer, Rosneft, is also the biggest loser in the decline of oil production as it runs into difficulties with selling all its oil abroad and increasing crude processing at home, according to industry data and data from the Russian Energy Ministry calculated by Bloomberg.
Rosneft—led by a long-time ally of Vladimir Putin’s, Igor Sechin—is suffering from a combination of lower exports, lower refinery runs domestically, and the exodus of Western oil firms from joint projects in Russia following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia claims that it has started restoring output lost in the past two months and that it is finding a home for its oil away from Europe.
Yet, analysts reckon that Russia’s oil production could lose 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of 2022, and its production is set to be impacted for years by the sanctions its largest market—Europe—is imposing. Some wells that have been shut down since the invasion of Ukraine at the end of February may never return to produce oil again, permanently eroding some of Russia’s spare production capacity, analysts say.
In the middle of May, Russia’s oil production was 830,000 bpd lower than it was in February. Rosneft—the top producer and the top refiner in Russia—accounted for 560,000 bpd of this drop, data from the energy ministry compiled and calculated by Bloomberg showed.
Moreover, the share of Rosneft’s idled wells jumped from 17% of all wells at the start of the year to as much as 30% in April. Idled wells at Rosneft’s unit Bashneft accounted for 55% of all Bashneft wells in April, per industry data Bloomberg has seen.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russias-Oil-Production-Has-Plunged-Even-As-Its-Revenue-Climbs.html





Assumes a static state of Euro gas usage and supplies circa 1/22, that Pootin's ill-considered fuckedup invasion will magically stop losing, that somebody will buy Russian blood oil...

Is this the same 'source' that told you Ukraine is full of Nazis back in January?





So does a rising futures price. "Jus sayin'. " -- Wm. of Occam






Khrushchev was from Donetsk. EU has agreed to reduce Russian o&g purchases by 75% by eoy. Britain has massive coal reserves too. Germany and France has plenty enough coal to make all the steel they want - Europe has to get in a bad state to go back to coal for electric power generation.

This is not good. If Russia loses so much oil production, the price of oil will go thru the roof, possibly causing a recession in Europe and us.

In the meantime, Russia is selling enough oil at high prices to be way ahead of last year, and have enough money to support the war.

Kind of a bad/bad situation.

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[Bunion 2020]

Maybe so but higher fuel prices will also incentivize us to switch away from fossil fuels. Kind of a good/good situation.

[rod9301]

Maybe so but higher fuel prices will also incentivize us to switch away from fossil fuels. Kind of a good/good situation.

You're right, but it's going to take many years, decades, to accomplish this, in the meantime people are going to suffer.

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[ötzi]

But when it's done, the Russians and the Saudis and the other petty despots emboldened by petroriches will have no hold us and they'll all return to the backwards poverty they sprang from and we'll march away into the sunshine, humming a thanks a Putin for speeding up the arrival of that day.

So it'll all be worth it.

[PB]

You're right, but it's going to take many years, decades, to accomplish this, in the meantime people are going to suffer.

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It may be closer than you think.

And if your primary strategy is to simply avoid suffering, then we are doomed. As long as people make foolish, short term irrational decisions the suffering will continue. In all fairness, the elimination of suffering is a worthy goal but only up to a point. If you truly eliminate all suffering, then you inevitably eliminate free will i.e. the inherent right to make bad decisions. To put it another way, no suffering, no gain/art/blues ......

[m2711c]

c’mon tipping point!!!

[dunfree]

You're right, but it's going to take many years, decades, to accomplish this, in the meantime people are going to suffer.

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So give Putin Ukraine so he can invade again in a few years? I realize the appeasement strategy isn’t rational at this point but damn

[altacoup]

This is not good. If Russia loses so much oil production, the price of oil will go thru the roof, possibly causing a recession in Europe and us.

In the meantime, Russia is selling enough oil at high prices to be way ahead of last year, and have enough money to support the war.

Kind of a bad/bad situation.

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If prices sore all the wells in the US that are currently sitting idle will probably start pumping again. US oil companies have so far been using extra revenue to buy back stocks and have yet to invest in increasing domestic drilling or investment. That said any country or company that’s not investing in the future of energy production (it’s not oil/gas) is like a farmer not watering their crops.


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[rod9301]

So give Putin Ukraine so he can invade again in a few years? I realize the appeasement strategy isn’t rational at this point but damn

I'm not talking about apeasement at all
It's just that the way some is the sanctions were designed they are hurting us more than they hurt Russia.

And I'm talking about oil and gas sanctions.

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[Casey E]

I'm not talking about apeasement at all
It's just that the way some is the sanctions were designed they are hurting us more than they hurt Russia.

And I'm talking about oil and gas sanctions.

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It took a few years for Venezuela to run down their Petro infrastructure and blow the prior windfall. But they got there, and are now a wreck sitting on more oil than Russia.

Sanctions, with limited tech and finance support, combined with the general corruption and ineptitude of their petro sector, will increasingly hurt Russian production and revenues. Add in the brain drain, and all those dead or disillusioned youngsters, and the downward spiral is inevitable. The west has to hold the line.

Too bad there may be famine and inflation, but we are probably preventing a bigger future clusterfuck, as long as we can get nuclear arms control back on track.


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[LongShortLong]

Is this the same 'source' that told you Ukraine is full of Nazis back in January?

Thanks for posting a source on the O&G revenues. I'm pretty sure my source was some twit, and I lost the the tweet when my laptop crashed, but the message resonated. I'm pretty good at supplying sources. Sometimes it's my own bloviating, and no source cited. Most of the think tank types (and other twits) I read seem to focus on political and social issues. I find the economic benefits are sufficient on their own to motivate Putin. Math isn't that hard.

I don't believe I've posted anything about Ukrainian nazis, though I have written such a post and deleted before posting. Deciding that it was a minor issue compared to major issue of Putin starting (/continuing) a brutal war of choice. I read about the nazis, and find it credible the same way the military attracts some of those types anywhere. I've seen nothing credible suggesting Ukraine has more nazis per capita than any other country, or Russia for that matter. A few nazis supporting a just cause is a non-issue in my book. If needed, they can be dealt with later. Ukraine's top ten problems are all Russian invasi

With folks like France's leader trying to appease/surrender, I think it's important to understand Putin's motives. The thread about oil and gas revenues driving Putin's income seems relevant, and many of the current sanctions a fig leaf in comparison. Maybe we don't want to admit we need the oil and gas and that's supplying the overwhelming majority of Russia's income, and has increased in a predictable way that Putin might have predicted himself. Admitting it or not, we should keep sight of it in any policy decisions.

I don't think Putin cares much about military losses. I don't think he cares much about Ukrainian suffering. When he started the current aggression, it probably looked like there were many chances for a positive outcome, or at least a positive outcome for the next few years, which may be good enough for an old crime boss, he's gonna die in 5 or 10 years anyway. Any scenario where sanctions are relaxed or dodged in the next few years is probably a win for the Russian crime families. So far, the sanctions are stronger than expected, and the military weaker, but there remain plenty of beneficial possibilities (to Putin) before the future gets here.

Say Ukraine rallies strongly and hands Russia's military a devastating loss (and I hope they do). The short term balance sheet is still positive. Putin could sue for peace, and probably get some sanctions relief immediately, and more later. He doesn't even have to rebuild the military - no one (besides Putin) wants to invade other countries. Even with no sanctions relief, he's got a big income bump for this year, and there will likely be high energy prices and enough sanctions cheating to sustain income levels as high or higher than without the invasion. Capitalists gonna capitalist.

Maybe it's a personal thing where I'm good at math, and see right through politicians who claim a trillion dollar problem is solved because they took care of a billion dollar part of the problem. I think it's important the various democratic countries' citizens recognize that we either need to do something about Russia's oil and gas revenues now, or maintain the current sanctions for a long time, or both.

To add, that particular twit also noted Russia's involvement in Syria, that blocks a couple potential pipelines from Persian Gulf states to Europe. Putin might be just a monopolist maintaining his market dominance.

[dunfree]

Russia wins an O&G victory, and sacrifices all the other things they’ve been trying to do to diversify. They become a gas station, and that’s a defeat

There was only chance for a positive outcome - a quick decisive Russian capture of a portion of Ukraine. Once that failed everything else is shit

[neufox47]

The west must continue supplying arms and aid to Ukraine. At this point I’m less worried about the O&G sanctions and more worried that Ukraine stops getting supported. Even if the west buys their oil, as long as the import sanctions remain Russia can’t replenish their war losses and Ukraine can grind them down. Ukraine can win by not losing.


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[LongShortLong]

I'll believe that when the appeasement talk dies. And politicians with some sense of national/global security can stay in or win office.

I see a difference between a win for Putin/Russia's leaders, and a win for Russia. Russia lost when they stopped having real elections 20 years ago. Russia only wins if they get better leadership. (ok, for the average Russian it's supposedly a big deal that the grocery stores have been full ever since Putin, for the first time in 100 years. Western social contract standards are much higher than Russian standards)

[jono]

I'll believe that when the appeasement talk dies. And politicians with some sense of national/global security can stay in or win office.

I see a difference between a win for Putin/Russia's leaders, and a win for Russia. Russia lost when they stopped having real elections 20 years ago. Russia only wins if they get better leadership. (ok, for the average Russian it's supposedly a big deal that the grocery stores have been full ever since Putin, for the first time in 100 years. Western social contract standards are much higher than Russian standards)

To the average Russian it might be easy to ignore the fact that western financing and trade has been making this possible. It may take a year or three to correct that.

[LongShortLong]

Kamil Galeev on changing Russian Leadership
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...821272064.html

Mainly he says the government structure needs to change. Replacing Putin just puts someone else on the Tsar's throne, who will have the same incentives and control mechanisms. (Galeev doesn't say this, but I've felt this way about the Kims in DPRK - the replacement is always an "evil" dictator, because that's what the government requires. There's no easy option to stop being "evil" as it requires reconfiguring the government)

[bennymac]

But when it's done, the Russians and the Saudis and the other petty despots emboldened by petroriches will have no hold us and they'll all return to the backwards poverty they sprang from and we'll march away into the sunshine, humming a thanks a Putin for speeding up the arrival of that day.

So it'll all be worth it.

“Twenty years ago you had the highest Gross National Product in the world, now you're tied with Albania. Your second largest export is secondhand goods, closely followed by dates which you're losing five cents a pound on... You know what the business community thinks of you? They think that a hundred years ago you were living in tents out here in the desert chopping each other's heads off and that's where you'll be in another hundred years.”

[heckacali]

These fuel issues are but a precursor to the water issues we will have in a few decades, with much graver consequences.