Ukraine

[MultiVerse]

I don't know, if MTT's point is the West should have responded more quickly to Ukraine's requests some time ago first for heavy artillery followed by rockets then in spite of the fact the West's response has been very good, it has also been too reactive at times and not proactive enough.

[MTT]

I watch this guy every few days


Seems like a good run down without the drama

[highangle]

Among others, leftists like Noam Chomsky are pretty vocal in blaming the United States for Russia's actions.

There's not enough nuance in the universe for Chomsky to make a legitimate case for Poot's Z-invasion/Z-pillage & Z-rape.. any more than he could for Saddam invading Kuwait on similarly absurd pretexts..

They're all over social media. At the risk of starting a discussion that has no business in this thread, even though it has become common for many to refer to Democrats as 'leftists' it's not a very accurate description in the way the term is traditionally understood.

Benny hates America and prob works for Pootin. Benny was in here a couple years ago pushing cynical Tara Reade bullshit. [So were Russian assets Greenwald and Taibbi, btw.]

[riser4]

What can they hit with long range rockets that they can't hit with medium range rockets?

Further into Russia? Not that I'm against that.

[LongShortLong]

Yeah, I don't get what we've been waiting for. My guess is some of the Euro leaders want more time to bring their populations to strongly support arming Ukraine. And Biden, being an internationalist, is willing to take some heat for slowing shipments. While it's in my interest Ukraine wins, and quickly, I also think the Euros need to step up. Ideally they would be driving the effort, not the US. I'd like to think a lot of democratic countries have similar geopolitical interests, and it's time to move past the unipolar world to one where consensus among relative equals drives policy (I like to think that would have countered the weak thinking that drove Iraq War 2).

As for the long range stuff, traditionally the advantage is it can be fired from far away, and any firing location covers a large area. Assuming almost everything is precision guided these days, specific targets can be efficiently eliminated. In Ukraine, this likely means supply lines and depots coming from Russia. And SAMs for aircraft. I don't buy any of the "reasons" to handicap Ukraine. If they need to hit a target in enemy territory, they should. (If they are corrupt, or if they start genociding Russians, limit our support then.)

I'm neither an international relations expert nor a general.

[dunfree]

Yeah, I don't get what we've been waiting for. My guess is some of the Euro leaders want more time to bring their populations to strongly support arming Ukraine. And Biden, being an internationalist, is willing to take some heat for slowing shipments. While it's in my interest Ukraine wins, and quickly, I also think the Euros need to step up. Ideally they would be driving the effort, not the US. I'd like to think a lot of democratic countries have similar geopolitical interests, and it's time to move past the unipolar world to one where consensus among relative equals drives policy (I like to think that would have countered the weak thinking that drove Iraq War 2).

As for the long range stuff, traditionally the advantage is it can be fired from far away, and any firing location covers a large area. Assuming almost everything is precision guided these days, specific targets can be efficiently eliminated. In Ukraine, this likely means supply lines and depots coming from Russia. And SAMs for aircraft. I don't buy any of the "reasons" to handicap Ukraine. If they need to hit a target in enemy territory, they should. (If they are corrupt, or if they start genociding Russians, limit our support then.)

I'm neither an international relations expert nor a general.

Some Euros are stepping up. Lithuania just crowd funded over€5 million for a drone (which baytar donated to the cause and gave the money to humanitarian charities) Czechia raised €50 million.

Germany hasn’t done shit but fart and cash checks. Fuck scholz, chamberlain had more balls. France is mostly in the way

[abraham]

Czechia raised €50 million.

Good for them. It's lucky that ammo depot explosion by Russians didn't turn into a bigger thing.

[rod9301]

Yeah, I don't get what we've been waiting for. My guess is some of the Euro leaders want more time to bring their populations to strongly support arming Ukraine. And Biden, being an internationalist, is willing to take some heat for slowing shipments. While it's in my interest Ukraine wins, and quickly, I also think the Euros need to step up. Ideally they would be driving the effort, not the US. I'd like to think a lot of democratic countries have similar geopolitical interests, and it's time to move past the unipolar world to one where consensus among relative equals drives policy (I like to think that would have countered the weak thinking that drove Iraq War 2).

As for the long range stuff, traditionally the advantage is it can be fired from far away, and any firing location covers a large area. Assuming almost everything is precision guided these days, specific targets can be efficiently eliminated. In Ukraine, this likely means supply lines and depots coming from Russia. And SAMs for aircraft. I don't buy any of the "reasons" to handicap Ukraine. If they need to hit a target in enemy territory, they should. (If they are corrupt, or if they start genociding Russians, limit our support then.)

I'm neither an international relations expert nor a general.

IF Ukraine is corrupt?

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

[PB]

OFFS; if corruption is a disqualifier, we're doomed. Do you discount anything Zalensky says because .... corruption? Do you forgive the Russians genocide because .... corruption? Is there any country more corrupt than Russia?!?!?!?

[m2711c]

What kind of corruption we talking about here? It’s a pretty big term that encompasses a lot of fucking games. So what games are you saying they’re playing?

[Mazderati]

Successfully skipped the last few pages. Looks like rod is still consistent with the worst takes in the thread.

[PB]

Corrupt Nazis, obviously.

[rod9301]

All I'm saying is that money goes the Ukraine without accountability. And weapons can end up in the wedding hands.

Of course Russia is corrupt too.

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[highangle]

All I'm saying is ...

Myeah. Hunter Biden's laptop. Right.

[bennymac]

All I'm saying is that money goes the Ukraine without accountability. And weapons can end up in the wedding hands.

Put down the bottle. Or put down the keyboard until morning.

[neufox47]

All I'm saying is that money goes the Ukraine without accountability. And weapons can end up in the wedding hands.

Of course Russia is corrupt too.

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You know what often gets rid of corruption, at least temporarily? Fighting for your life.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-june-2

If you want the detailed run down.

[LongShortLong]

Yeah, I'm thinking of corruption like funneling >20% of the money somewhere, or shipping late-model war equipment to China. Humans are somewhat corrupt, and Ukraine also. We must allow for that. And there's the usual mistakes and fuckups, that we should expect more during a war, and also allow for. So long as the support we send is somewhat efficiently helping humans or damaging Russian equipment, it's doing its job.

Here's the "pros" discussing where it goes from here (Council on Foreign Relations). The main takeaway I got is the idea that Ukraine has insufficient military power to return to pre-2014 boundaries, and can't get to pre-2022 either. Russia remains a pest forever and we should be doing more about grain exports. Whether Ukraine stops fighting, Ukrainians will not b/c many hate Russia now. The pros didn't offer any strong conclusions or advice - maybe a bunch of skiing dentists makes an adequate foreign policy panel (We're so much better than them?). 75 minutes

[LongShortLong]

A quick scan of world crop production forecasts suggests no shortage overall. Individual countries have problems feeding their populations though. I didn't attempt to figure whether problems differ substantially from prior years. My guess is the new problem is inflation/affordability. We (are the world) produce and consume about 2800 million tonnes of cereal, and have 850 million tonnes in storage.

overview
https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/
quarterly report
https://www.fao.org/3/cb8893en/cb8893en.pdf
Notably Ukraine expected to produce 4 million fewer tonnes of wheat, a 12% decline for them. World production expected to increase 15 million tonnes to 790 million tonnes.

[MultiVerse]

Re corruption in Ukraine, I don't think corruption in Ukraine can be discussed without discussing Russia in Ukraine. Ukraine is trying to escape from the Russian kleptocracy. The wars and the mass protests that proceeded them are largely about escaping from Russia's corrupting influence. Russia spends a lot of money trying to influence and corrupt Ukrainian politics, not just in Ukraine but in other countries too.

There was a lot of talk about Ukraine and NATO forcing Russia's hand, but the real issue is Ukraine wanting to join the European Union which requires a "functioning market economy, a stable democracy and the rule of law, and the acceptance of all EU legislation, including of the euro."

[J. Barron DeJong]

Not great



https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/statu...8VZQxv_x01l5Hw

[Percy Rideout]

Not great



https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/statu...8VZQxv_x01l5Hw

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opini...ine/ar-AAY0xc3

The million dollar question will be if Russia can hold their territory advances. Unfortunately I think they will.

I hate being right sometimes...

[MultiVerse]

Where "being right" means posting about the tactical situation in the Donbas days after everyone else?

[Percy Rideout]

Where "being right" means posting about the tactical situation in the Donbas days after everyone else?

Post #7974 in this thread will set you straight.

I was roundly criticized for giving an accurate assessment of what's happening on the ground in eastern ukraine. Some of you cucks just were not ready for reality because CNN was feeding you something different.

Anyways, believe what you want as i type here accurately predicting the future for you dolts.

Russia has all the time in the world to slow play this. Every dollar spent of defense of Kiev is one less dollar spent on Russias actual goal, a landbridge to their port in Crimea and their access to the Med. Eastern Ukraine is effectively theirs at this point. Hell, the population of E. Ukraine already speaks russian.

[4matic]

Post
Russia has all the time in the world to slow play this. Eastern Ukraine is effectively theirs at this point.

Ukraine will have a constant supply of modern weapons to continue inflicting heavy casualties. If that contested territory serves no economic purpose while its contested what is the long game for Russia?

[MultiVerse]

lol, not only was Percy late to the party but his overall strategic assessment was and is wrong too. Posts #7931 and posts #7929 discussed the tactical situation in the Donbas before Percy came stumbling in all warble warble tEh mEdIA is hIDing the truTH!!!!

Russia has all the time in the world to slow play this. Every dollar spent of defense of Kiev is one less dollar spent on Russias actual goal, a landbridge to their port in Crimea and their access to the Med. Eastern Ukraine is effectively theirs at this point. Hell, the population of E. Ukraine already speaks russian.

Literally, nothing new in this assessment and still wrong about Russia's overarching long term strategic goals.