Ukraine

[basinbeater]

Yeah, military guy, let's fight.

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The fighting has already begun. The question is does autocratic kleptocracy win or does democratic free determination win. Which side are you on? Cause the fight is on.

[TahoeJ]

Putin underestimates how willing the American public would be open to a full on retaliation. I mean look what happened after 9/11. If Russia actually dropped a nuke on ukraine, a majority of Americans would probably just say wipe them the fuck out in self defense before they come at us. Hell, we overwhelmingly approved dropping a second one on Japan instead of risking more American lives. And that was back when we were less crazy.

Keep in mind that this is more about political clout or power than actually carrying it out.

[Toadman]

Putin underestimates how willing the American public would be open to a full on retaliation. I mean look what happened after 9/11. If Russia actually dropped a nuke on ukraine, a majority of Americans would probably just say wipe them the fuck out in self defense before they come at us. Hell, we overwhelmingly approved dropping a second one on Japan instead of risking more American lives. And that was back when we were less crazy.

Keep in mind that this is more about political clout or power than actually carrying it out.

Right, and how many nukes did Japan have in their arsenal to retaliate against the US?

[::: :::]

twin photo

that is some deep shit to see your twin dead
i cannot imagine the true depth of that



amazing what humanity perpetrates on itself

[Viva]

For sure.

In addition to economic sanctions and continued support of Ukraine with conventional weapons and humanitarian aid, I am in agreement that it is time for the west to unequivocally respond to the reckless Russian threats of nuclear war.

From a recent WSJ Opinion article:

I liked that piece. Corroborates my very limited understanding of nuclear theory. Putin seems to be down to his strategic deterrent, but there's no chance of gaining strategic advantage in using it.

I hope that Putin does understand it what he's getting into here. Most folks still seem to believe that nuclear war means the end of humanity. But this ain't so. Strategic nuclear war is a race to make the other side surrender as quickly as possible, ideally within a few hours*. Putin's, is effectively facing three opponents: The US, the Frogs and the Limeys. I guess that there's also the potential for other NATO countries to independently use the 100 nuclear weapons under US Nuclear Sharing agreements, but I dunno how that works.

Anywho, as I see it, for Putin to have a shot success here, he needs to actually attack and cow one of those aforementioned powers while keeping the other two from acting. With Biden and the dream team of Austin and Milley at the helm, the United States could be taken out fairly early in the war under the right conditions, but that slim chance goes to zero unless UK and France aren't interested in supporting us. But the way things are now, no chance. The French SSBNs are on station, from what I've been reading the British population, and polititians are resolute in this matter and will not be swayed, and Biden's foreign policy is being run by one of Hillary's hawks, somebody who isn't going to restrain our silo and SSBN commanders if this goes DEFCON...5...1? Whatever. It's anyone's guess as to what may happen in a massive exchange, where all of our carefully prepared processes and pre-arranged war plans move too fast for even the most cowardly President to slam on the brakes.

Putin would also have to expend a good chunk of his deterrent against the secondary capitals of eastern Europe. US forces on the line, and the Poles and Ukranians in particular, aren't going to just drop their weapons and go home if ICBMs start flying. They're going to fuckin' raze every fuckin' Russian city within range until they run out of ammunition. Putin's depleted forces can't stop a thing in that situation.

Putin never should have started this war, and it's become a total goat-fuck for him. I can easily see him making similar miscalculations in the nuclear arena. But if he's going to launch now, after stacking the deck even higher against himself, then he was going to find some excuse to launch anyway.

*Of course it's never happened, so WTF do I know.

[rod9301]

Putin underestimates how willing the American public would be open to a full on retaliation. I mean look what happened after 9/11. If Russia actually dropped a nuke on ukraine, a majority of Americans would probably just say wipe them the fuck out in self defense before they come at us. Hell, we overwhelmingly approved dropping a second one on Japan instead of risking more American lives. And that was back when we were less crazy.

Keep in mind that this is more about political clout or power than actually carrying it out.

Full retaliation is everyone dying.i don't think most Americans understand this

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[fastfred]

just here to post about how stupid I am sometimes
guy I've know for many years just assumed he was a polish cause he runs with the polish crew around here
we were shooting the shit at the shop today and I asked him about his family back home and how they were doing
once in awhile the guy will have his mom on speaker phone while he's working and you get to listen to them go back and forth, funny puzzling and annoying
today I found out he's actually from the Ukraine the rest of the conversation was sobering and I sure as shit didn't know what to say to the guy

[TahoeJ]

Full retaliation is everyone dying.i don't think most Americans understand this

Not necessarily but that's really aside from the point.

[m2711c]

yeah, they’ll still be racing cars in australia at the least.

[Cisco Kid]

just here to post about how stupid I am sometimes
guy I've know for many years just assumed he was a polish cause he runs with the polish crew around here
we were shooting the shit at the shop today and I asked him about his family back home and how they were doing
once in awhile the guy will have his mom on speaker phone while he's working and you get to listen to them go back and forth, funny puzzling and annoying
today I found out he's actually from the Ukraine the rest of the conversation was sobering and I sure as shit didn't know what to say to the guy

Not that stupid. Polish are Ukrainians with an accent. And vice versa. That whole border area has been in a state of flux since forever. My grand parents came from "Poland" in 1895. At least that's what they claimed at Ellis Island. Genealogical study points to Ukraine. My "Polish" surname translates to "Hillbilly" and that fits grandpa to a T.

[Bunion 2020]

Quote Originally Posted by rod9301 View Post
Full retaliation is everyone dying.i don't think most Americans understand this

No one sane wants a nuclear exchange no matter how limited in scale.

Putin cannot be allowed to wage war on neighbors and not suffer the results.

[neufox47]

Full retaliation is everyone dying.i don't think most Americans understand this

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Your position is what? Lift all sanctions on Russia, significantly reduce or stop military aid to Ukraine and encourage them to accept terms from Russia? And what about when Russia invades a 2nd, 3rd, 7th country? We just sit back and ignore the genocide that is systematically committed?

[Hood26]

The fighting has already begun. The question is does autocratic kleptocracy win or does democratic free determination win. Which side are you on? Cause the fight is on.

Yuppie! I am a lover not a fighter, until it’s time to fight.

Also, that “military” guy repeatedly says nuclear war should not happen. It’s not the west that is rattling that nuclear saber, rod.

It’s time we throw a little Tombstone rhetoric at that Fucking shit stain Putin, cause he doesn’t really want to pull that smoke wagon.

[rod9301]

Your position is what? Lift all sanctions on Russia, significantly reduce or stop military aid to Ukraine and encourage them to accept terms from Russia? And what about when Russia invades a 2nd, 3rd, 7th country? We just sit back and ignore the genocide that is systematically committed?

First of all it's not genocide. Biden said it was, but the state department denied it immediately.

Second, why not do what we did when Saudi Arabia killed 400,000 people in Yemen?
Which is nothing.

Why do we have to be the world's policeman?

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[From_the_NEK]

Rod is channeling Benny HARD. We need to know his thoights on pocket meats next.

[ex-powderbroker]

WHERE WAS GONDOR WHEN THE WESTFOLD FELL?

orc lover

[Mazderati]

Rod is channeling Benny HARD. We need to know his thoights on pocket meats next.

rod takes the doctor's sausage in his pocket. Hard.

[rod9301]

Interesting there no comments on Saudis attacking Yemen

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[MultiVerse]

First of all it's not genocide. Biden said it was, but the state department denied it immediately.

The State Department did not deny it. The last time you brought up this talking point I quoted and linked to the relevant State Department text indicating crimes of genocide by the Russian military are currently being uncovered and investigated.

Interesting there no comments on Saudis attacking Yemen

It was discussed earlier in this thread. Saudi behavior was condemned. Nobody defended the Saudis.

[PB]

Nobody's holding up the saudis as paragons of virtue; most here would probably agree the ruling family are the equivalent of war criminals and should be bone sawed. But if you think the Yeminis are the same as the Ukrainians .....

[J. Barron DeJong]

Interesting there no comments on Saudis attacking Yemen

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You may note that, at least so far, the US is not acting like the ‘world’s policeman’. This is not Iraq or Afghanistan. Unless maybe you consider, say, Ford Motor Company to be part of the police force since they provide equipment to departments.

Regarding Yemen I’d ask: to what end? And what are the odds of the goals being achieved by our ‘allies’ there? Could we have just provided arms and some external guidance and gotten acceptable results, or would it actually involve US forces on the ground acting as the ‘worlds police’?

I’m not an expert on any of this, but it seems like the Ukraine situation is less complex in a geopolitical sense, and they are a more capable ally from a fighting force sense.

[MultiVerse]

Speaking of Russian acts of genocide, Russia is using hunger as a weapon. The Kremlin describes their use of hunger as a weapon against the West:



Video showing truckloads of grain being carried off toward Russia from Russian occupied Melitopol. Just like in the days of Stalin:

https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1519733107024400385

And there are widespread reports of the same thing happening elsewhere. So to recap the Russian army is engaging in systematic kidnapping, rape, murder, looting, and terror-famine.

[basinbeater]

Bringing up the Yemeni Saudi situation is classic whataboutism trying to change the subject to something totally different.
I'm no expert on the Saudi Yemeni conflict, but i believe it was Houthis who with Iranian support overthrew the government, and then Saudi Arabia stepped in with a few other north African countries to try to restore the government. Not exactly a democratic bastion to begin with. An all around fucked up situation where we are supplying weapons to bad guys who are fighting other bad guys backed by bad guys we don't like. This is not that. Even you should be able to see that.
Ukraine is a functioning but flawed democracy that was taking steps to root out corruption and strengthen ties with the west. This movement to root out corruption and engage the west would lead to increased opportunity and prosperity and that threatens Putin. Can't have a bunch of former Soviet Union people on his border becoming more prosperous. Would make him look bad and drive dissent in Russia. Must punish them to prevent it from happening in other areas and within Russia.
So, he invades. If he succeeds, does he stop there? History would suggest otherwise. How about Finland? This very much is autocratic kleptocracy vs democracy and freedom for a sovereign country to determine their own path. It needs to be stopped.
But whatabout?
Don't spew Putin's bullshit for him and call it thinking for yourself.

Fuck Putin and his know nothing pawns over here. Thinking for yourself. Lol.

[rod9301]

Nobody's holding up the saudis as paragons of virtue; most here would probably agree the ruling family are the equivalent of war criminals and should be bone sawed. But if you think the Yeminis are the same as the Ukrainians .....

They are brown of course, but still, 400,000

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[XavierD]

First of all it's not genocide. Biden said it was, but the state department denied it immediately.

Second, why not do what we did when Saudi Arabia killed 400,000 people in Yemen?
Which is nothing.

Why do we have to be the world's policeman?

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In sequence:
Genocide or not it is a moral imperative to those who believe in democracy and self governance to stop dictators from bullying their sovereign neighbors.

While a true humanitarian disaster, the Saudi intervention in Yemen did not represent an invasion of a sovereign country. They entered an existing civil war caused largely by their geographical rival. The Saudi’s commuted some atrocities there but they were hardly the only ones doing it, nor did they start that conflict.

It is in the interest of the United States and it’s citizens to live in a world where democracies sovereignty is honored regardless of size. As the strongest democracy it is our duty to take lead in establishing and protecting these international norms, and prevent strongmen from bullying their neighbors through force into submission.

Furthermore, while not a member of NATO the United States has had strong diplomatic and military relations with Ukraine.