Ukraine

[J. Barron DeJong]

It's not Germany that's cock blocking the transfer of MIGs to Ukraine..

Is the implication that the US is blocking them? Cause I don’t think that’s true today, and not clear that it ever was.

[abraham]

Hope Viva's family doesn't get sucked into this too. Though I don't see how fighting in more places will help Russia.. I'm still surprised the Kerch straight bridge is still standing it, it seems like Ukraine bombing it would be symbolic.



https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022...greenwald.html

The key thing to understand about anti-anti-Russia thinkers is that their worldview treats the war in Ukraine as if it is being waged by the United States. Absent this premise, their arguments are unintelligible. But if you read them with the assumption that Washington has masterminded the conflict, everything clicks into place.

Anti-anti-Russians had already arrived at the conclusion that Ukraine’s war was an American plot to undermine Russia. “Is the purpose of the arms shipments to strengthen Ukraine’s hand in reaching a negotiated settlement to the conflict — a process from which the Biden administration and allied governments have so far held themselves aloof?” posited the leftist Branko Marcetic last week. “Or is it, as some U.S. and British officials have suggested, to turn Ukraine into an Afghanistan-like quagmire for Russia, weakening it and perhaps even triggering regime change, while sending a message to China in the process?”

And so, when Austin announced this objective, the anti-anti-Russians cried out in vindication. Here was the skeleton key to understanding the entire conflict. “The White House intends to keep the war in Ukraine alive, with the stated goal of weakening Moscow by continuing to pour new and more advanced weaponry into the war-ravaged country,” argues the Federalist’s John Daniel Davidson.

The purest expression of this worldview comes from influential Fox News guest analyst Glenn Greenwald

This is an inversion of reality Orwell could only admire. Ukraine’s destruction is the objective of Russia’s invasion, not the “price” of American aid to Ukraine. Indeed, American aid to Ukraine is designed to prevent its destruction.

Ukrainians are begging for American aid because they don’t want to be destroyed. The absence of assistance from the west would mean Russian troops raping, looting, and bombing their way across the country.

Perhaps the anti-anti-Russians imagine some alternative in which the United States refused to help Ukraine fend off the invasion, and Ukraine peacefully submitted in the face of overwhelming force. But this fantasy ignores Ukraine’s obvious determination to fight for its independence regardless of what the west did on its behalf. The Ukrainian populace mobilized en masse, enlisting in their home defense in greater numbers than could be absorbed and fashioning homemade arms to defend their neighborhoods block by block.

The anti-anti-Russians have arrived at this bizarre alternative reality after years of delusional thinking. They have spent the better part of two decades refusing to believe that Ukrainians want to live in a sovereign democracy rather than a Russian vassal state ruled by a Putin-aligned kleptocrat. They have accordingly treated every expression of Ukrainian nationalism as a tool of American aggression. The Maidan protests, the election of Zelenskyy, the resistance to the invasion have all been reimagined in their minds as a plot originated in Washington.

The anti-anti-Russians have arrived at this bizarre alternative reality after years of delusional thinking. They have spent the better part of two decades refusing to believe that Ukrainians want to live in a sovereign democracy rather than a Russian vassal state ruled by a Putin-aligned kleptocrat. They have accordingly treated every expression of Ukrainian nationalism as a tool of American aggression. The Maidan protests, the election of Zelenskyy, the resistance to the invasion have all been reimagined in their minds as a plot originated in Washington.

Obviously, the United States wants to weaken Russia — because Russia is threatening Ukraine. The war will go on until Russia is too weak to continue waging war in Ukraine. This is perfectly obvious as long as you understand Russia, not the United States, started the war.

The trouble is, some people cannot understand this.

That last sentence could also be edited to say some people choose not to understand.

[ötzi]

You should send that quote in a PM to Benny. It fits him perfectly.

[SumJongGuy]

Is the implication that the US is blocking them? Cause I don’t think that’s true today, and not clear that it ever was.

It was the US Pentagon that backed out of the plan for Poland to send the MIGs to Ulraine via US delivering them. Neither the US nor Poland wanted to be the delivery mechanism for fear of Russian retaliation beyond Ukraine's border. US offiials are absolutely afraid of how Russia could respond to US delivering MIGs to Ukraine..

The Pentagon this week rejected a proposal from Poland to provide the Ukrainian Air Force with MiG-29 fighter jets, which Defense Department spokesperson John Kirby described as not “tenable” because of the risk of open conflict between NATO and Russia.

https://www.vox.com/2022/3/13/229752...aid-escalation

[J. Barron DeJong]

It was the US Pentagon that backed out of the plan for Poland to send the MIGs to Ulraine via US delivering them. Neither the US nor Poland wanted to be the delivery mechanism for fear of Russian retaliation beyond Ukraine's border. US offiials are absolutely afraid of how Russia could respond to US delivering MIGs to Ukraine..



https://www.vox.com/2022/3/13/229752...aid-escalation

So if I’m not actively trying to help you hook up with a chick, that’s now considered cock blocking? Definitions must have changed since I was single…

[J. Barron DeJong]

Hope this actually happens, but I can’t say I’m optimistic:

[SumJongGuy]

So if I’m not actively trying to help you hook up with a chick, that’s now considered cock blocking? Definitions must have changed since I was single…

Ukraine would be laid with MIGs if we hadn't blocked the transfer plan. Tell me why that is if we're not afraid of what Putin will do...

[J. Barron DeJong]

Ukraine would be laid with MIGs if we hadn't blocked the transfer plan. Tell me why that is if we're not afraid of what Putin will do...

UKR put 20 additional aircraft in the air last week, thanks in part to the US. Does that count as an orgy?

All sides are being cagey about the deal, but wouldn’t be surprising if it involved MIGs

[rideit]

The UKR air force also wasn't up to speed on training to use the MIG's then. I guarantee they have been boning up since then.

[Viva]

Seems Putin is now flailing for some kind of distraction- now stirring up shit in Moldova. And now there are official claims that Russia may actually go after territory there: https://www.dw.com/en/russia-says-it...ned/a-61551869

Their entire operations group in Transnistria is about three brigade tactical groups- likely small enough to be challenged by Moldova's armed forces, provided that they receive no external (Russian) support. One of my cousins opined that "Putin needs any way he can get to tie down more (Ukrainian) forces in Odesa." and, more, "...it will complicate the supply situation for arms coming from Romania and Czechia."

Strategically, this may divert a western Europeean attention to Moldova, as Moldova is part of the Council of Europe. Last month, the Council of Europe changed Transnistria's designation from "Under the Effective Control of Russia" to "Occupied," i.e., any escalation in Transnistria means that Putin's game for a wider war. Maybe just symbolic, but still important, because Putin's shown a history of breaking treaties to demonstrate his resolve and get Germany to acquiesce, like breaking the Helsinki Accords when he invaded Crimea.

This symbolism also matters since Finland and Sweden, also EU nations, but not NATO members, are now so committed to joining NATO that they're going to make a party of it- applying and (one assumes) joining together on the same day. Russia, as we well know, has been threatening both nations not to join since before the current war began, and now there's word that the US has already guaranteed their safety until their membership becomes binding. So, as of yesterday, the most important operative feature of NATO membership is being extended on a trial basis.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Seems Putin is now flailing for some kind of distraction- now stirring up shit in Moldova. And now there are official claims that Russia may actually go after territory there: https://www.dw.com/en/russia-says-it...ned/a-61551869

Their entire operations group in Transnistria is about three brigade tactical groups- likely small enough to be challenged by Moldova's armed forces, provided that they receive no external (Russian) support. One of my cousins opined that "Putin needs any way he can get to tie down more (Ukrainian) forces in Odesa." and, more, "...it will complicate the supply situation for arms coming from Romania and Czechia."

Strategically, this may divert a western Europeean attention to Moldova, as Moldova is part of the Council of Europe. Last month, the Council of Europe changed Transnistria's designation from "Under the Effective Control of Russia" to "Occupied," i.e., any escalation in Transnistria means that Putin's game for a wider war. Maybe just symbolic, but still important, because Putin's shown a history of breaking treaties to demonstrate his resolve and get Germany to acquiesce, like breaking the Helsinki Accords when he invaded Crimea.

This symbolism also matters since Finland and Sweden, also EU nations, but not NATO members, are now so committed to joining NATO that they're going to make a party of it- applying and (one assumes) joining together on the same day. Russia, as we well know, has been threatening both nations not to join since before the current war began, and now there's word that the US has already guaranteed their safety until their membership becomes binding. So, as of yesterday, the most important operative feature of NATO membership is being extended on a trial basis.

Has there been any further news on this, beyond one General’s comments?

Seem like it would greatly expand the fighting front, and Russia isn’t able to break through any of the current front at this point. And if I’m reading right, only 1500 soldiers in Transnistria, so the rest would be coming from the Russian troops currently fighting in south/east UKR?



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61188943

[summit]

It's really easy. Russia just has to refrain from nuking Stockholm, and nobody has to die. Think Pooty Poot can handle that? I think so.



Russia has 3 BTGs in Transnistria? A sliver of land in the poorest country in Europe? Moldova with maybe 3 brigades and no air force is gonna fight?

We'd better give the Moldova ATGMs and the Ukrainians more antiship missiles.

[J. Barron DeJong]

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/s...1N93C_FRUrsriw

[billyk]

They were trying to give the 2nd tank a push. Why they couldn't just dispense with the log and just bump it with the other tank is beyond me. I mean they are armored vehicles FFS. What's a little dent or some scratches going to matter.

It looked to me like the “fenders” over the tracks stuck out, and could be easily crushed (by the force of two 40 ton tanks colliding) which could potentially disable the tank by squeezing a fender against the track. So they needed to avoid that happening.

The other thing I noticed was the tank doing the pushing is going in reverse, presumably because the armor is a flat vertical surface in the back whereas in the front it is a sharp wedge shape (to deflect incoming rounds).

That means the tank driver was on the far side of the tank with poorer visibility, which could have contributed to the debacle.

[dunfree]

Has there been any further news on this, beyond one General’s comments?

Seem like it would greatly expand the fighting front, and Russia isn’t able to break through any of the current front at this point. And if I’m reading right, only 1500 soldiers in Transnistria, so the rest would be coming from the Russian troops currently fighting in south/east UKR?



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61188943

the financial times had a piece talking about the great dysfunction of russias military and how they in Moscow might not actually know how many troops they have and what condition they are in. Bad decisions make sense in that environment

the other is Putin likes sowing chaos and killing people

[J. Barron DeJong]

the financial times had a piece talking about the great dysfunction of russias military and how they in Moscow might not actually know how many troops they have and what condition they are in. Bad decisions make sense in that environment

the other is Putin likes sowing chaos and killing people

Yep

https://www.ft.com/content/63411b89-...8-89c11870aeca

[TahoeJ]

I think we all know how this ends. Putin will eventually get whacked from the inside. We should just keep squeezing the oligarchs and they’ll take care of it once they’ve had enough.

[Adolf Allerbush]

I think we all know how this ends. Putin will eventually get whacked from the inside. We should just keep squeezing the oligarchs and they’ll take care of it once they’ve had enough.

Do you think that would really end it? If Putin is killed tomorrow does his successor (Mishustin?) keep it rolling or does he bail on the effort? I think there would need to be a larger change in Russia for them to bail on the Ukraine effort.

[LongShortLong]

Hope this actually happens, but I can’t say I’m optimistic:

I'm not optimistic either. Problems:
Putin is a lying sack of shit
I don't he has sufficient command of his forces to keep them from firing
Missing detail - which UN nations are leading this?
Missing detail - there's no plan for the Mariupol defenders. Seems unlikely Putin lets them leave (or stay).
Even if he does, they won't trust him because
Putin is a lying sack of shit

[LongShortLong]

Do you think that would really end it? If Putin is killed tomorrow does his successor (Mishustin?) keep it rolling or does he bail on the effort? I think there would need to be a larger change in Russia for them to bail on the Ukraine effort.

Whoever leads the coup will have substantial disagreements with Putin's approach, otherwise why a coup? So far, and I don't have a Russian POV, no one has attacked Russia, which leaves de-escalation as a valid alternate approach for any Putin replacement. Whatever a putative putin replacement might want to do, there will be a period of instability, which may itself end the invasion. That said, it does seem unlikely that Putin or a new leader would abandon captured territory by choice. Holding what they've got so far may be Russia's best hope (not considering negative world opinion)

It's hard to imagine the new leader able to leave Ukraine immediately. First Russian domestic opinion has to shift, or an imminent defeat must be at hand. It's hard to imagine a Russian government that says "oops, our bad, we'll go home, reparate Ukraine and become a peaceful EU democracy." I'd welcome it if they had a sudden epiphany, but that seems pretty rare outside of conquered governments.

[summit]

New Russia STRONKman must be STRONK. I imagine like this:

"NATO we now have new leader, capable of CRUSH Ukraine and then more war.
OR,
Crimea, Donbass, Luhansk are Russia, we return happily voluntarily relocated Ukrainian in Russia, Red Army go home, you release frozen assets, drop all sanctioning, blame all on dead Putin, we sell gas and oil, and we Reset of Relations with West. Maybe even of cooperation's against China and Iran Deal...

Is Deal or War? Da or nyet?"

And then they argue about paring down some borders on the breakaway regions, maybe Sevastopol is a permanent lease instead of Crimea being Russian, in exchange Russia gets some guaranteed business deals with Russia's nuclear industry and promises not to build pipelines... and in the end everyone is unhappy... which is the mark of a good treaty.

[XavierD]

My guess is this ends in a few years after the Russian military culminates following back and forth offensives over eastern Ukraine. The Luhansk and Donetsk areas get recognized as separate states, Crimea returns to Ukrainian control and Russia is left severely embarrassed. Putin may die of natural causes over the course of the war. Russia agrees to some repatriations to restore trade agreements with the west.


To aid this we should be giving Ukraine not the weapons they need to fight inside Ukraine but the capabilities to hit Strategic targets inside Russia. Start blowing up their railways, disrupting Russian logistics for miles inside Russia.

[XavierD]

I think Czar Putin dies of natural causes before anyone knocks him off. I don’t think that’s a long ways away.

I’m also pretty sure our national security council has a better idea of what’s going on in the Russian military than anyone in the Russian military.

[J. Barron DeJong]

https://twitter.com/hoanssolo/status...HCvwY3LqcloEzw

[TBS]

…To aid this we should be giving Ukraine not the weapons they need to fight inside Ukraine but the capabilities to hit Strategic targets inside Russia. Start blowing up their railways, disrupting Russian logistics for miles inside Russia.

And disable the cruise missile batteries
I keep wondering why NATO isn’t helping with this as well.

I mean, what are the Russians gonna do to retaliate - bomb more?
Which they won’t be able to do if Ukraine can reach out and touch those Russian cruise missile batteries. And fuck up the supply lines