Ukraine

[J. Barron DeJong]

Thread on the dam situation: https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status...sR_NcRK2VkCfkg

[jono]

eta: Al Jazeera report says the dam is 3m high. I expect ZNPP has a disaster plan for this. Even if they don't, 3m should be a minor obstacle to supplying water.

There is photo evidence of houses in Kherson that are submerged to their roofs. Al Jazeera has been very hit and miss. This sounds like a miss.

The dam was reported as being mined months ago and from pics of the chunks it wouldn't be surprising if they just cut the concrete in places and weakened it. Running up the reservoir to all time highs couldn't have helped, so it's possible a structural failure wasn't entirely intentional. But it doesn't seem like a coincidence that Russia put up a non-starter proposal for a UN investigation of Nordstream to get the rest of the security council on record not supporting it right before they destroyed some more civilian infrastructure. ZNPP sabotage seems more likely than ever.

[Toadman]

Apparently everything is just fine in Nova Kakhovka

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1666075086107951106

[J. Barron DeJong]

“Very important on #Kakhovka. The chronology of the terrorist attack by Russian terrorists. Or how Russians screwed in their excuses.

At two o'clock in the morning, the Russians blow up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, but they don't see how much. It's not very visible, but it can still hit.


1. The Russians still think that they have neatly blown up a small part of the HPP and are flooding our military on the islands. At 6:06 a.m., the head of Nova Kakhovka, Leontyev, said that the explosion of the GES was nonsense. Like, we don't know why the water rose there. Here is the link to Ria Novosti's archive.is/aTyK8


2. Russian OSINT intelligence community Rybar picks up the thesis and says a small area was blown up at 6:51 a.m. Link archive.ph/flapa


3. At 6:51 in Nova Kakhovka, they see that the dam is a complete ass, and the mom's stratagems start to realize that they are in trouble. The mayor of Nova Kakhovka abruptly changes his rhetoric and says there was no explosion, it was a shelling by the Ukrainian army. Link archive.ph/LFFKF


4. But the propagandists, who do not know what the fuck has happened, continue to work according to the methodology and continue to throw into the information space that the dam was previously shelled, and then it got a little tired and broke a little. Here is a post by Podolyaki's propagandist archive.ph/DgQIV. And the propaganda channel War on Fakes archive.ph/GRN55


5. Other telegram channels that cooperate with the military are happily hopping on one leg, cheering, because of the undermining of the Kakhovka dam, the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the islands are flooded, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to evacuate and escape, and then they publish joyful reports of how they are hitting the positions of our guys on the islands. 08:25 Link archive.ph/c0iHL


6. Here, the Russians are slowly realizing that they have created a large-scale man-made environmental disaster, almost as large as Chernobyl. And they are starting to reverse. Russian influence on the information space is changing its tone dramatically. They instantly change their tune and start accusing the Ukrainian side of provocations. Like it's a Bankova operation A reference to the same "war on fakes" that said the dam had somehow collapsed on its own.... archive.ph/x8uwT
But even in their excuses, the racists still screwed up. Either the dam was blown up, or Olha was shelled with MLRS.... archive.ph/uF0Xm Although any sapper will give a hundred percent guarantee that it is impossible to make such destruction from the outside, the damage here was done by planting explosives


And then they are already beginning to adhere to this thesis, because what they have done is a huge international tragedy, especially in the environmental sense.”


https://twitter.com/volodyatretyak/s...sR_NcRK2VkCfkg

[LongShortLong]

There is photo evidence of houses in Kherson that are submerged to their roofs. Al Jazeera has been very hit and miss. This sounds like a miss.

The dam was reported as being mined months ago and from pics of the chunks it wouldn't be surprising if they just cut the concrete in places and weakened it. Running up the reservoir to all time highs couldn't have helped, so it's possible a structural failure wasn't entirely intentional. But it doesn't seem like a coincidence that Russia put up a non-starter proposal for a UN investigation of Nordstream to get the rest of the security council on record not supporting it right before they destroyed some more civilian infrastructure. ZNPP sabotage seems more likely than ever.

It's 30m in their report today. I either misheard or they misreported. I should have checked elsewhere as 3m seems pretty short for a reservoir so long.

A more challenging depth for ZNPP. I expect the engineers anticipated a failed or drained reservoir in their original design. Modern engineers likely have looked at this problem since Feb '22.

Fucking Russians.

[J. Barron DeJong]

For old times sake:



https://twitter.com/shashj/status/16...sR_NcRK2VkCfkg

[Percy Rideout]

There is photo evidence of houses in Kherson that are submerged to their roofs. Al Jazeera has been very hit and miss. This sounds like a miss.

The dam was reported as being mined months ago and from pics of the chunks it wouldn't be surprising if they just cut the concrete in places and weakened it. Running up the reservoir to all time highs couldn't have helped, so it's possible a structural failure wasn't entirely intentional. But it doesn't seem like a coincidence that Russia put up a non-starter proposal for a UN investigation of Nordstream to get the rest of the security council on record not supporting it right before they destroyed some more civilian infrastructure. ZNPP sabotage seems more likely than ever.

The West has no appetite for a formal independent investigation into Nordstream because it will confirm to the rest of the world what the West already knows. We bombed that shit.

If the West didn't blow up Nordstream, you better believe a UN investigation is in order. Also, THE PERFECT SITUATION SERVED UP ON A SILVER PLATTER to rub Russia's face into the dirt and show their potential international energy partners what kinda of caveman shit they'll do when their back is against the wall, hopefully to discourage energy trade and the strategic folly of linking your countries together.

Instead, this shady Nordstream business shows what cavemen WE THE WEST are. The article below says US intelligence knew, for awhile before the attack.

First it was Russia, then it was Ukranian Sympathizers, now it's Ukraine itself. Oh. Germany must be pissed behind the scenes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...1c26e0fb&ei=22

the piece de resistance clipped from the article. Makes more sense now.

"While Gazprom, the Russian state-owned gas conglomerate, owns 51 percent of Nord Stream, Western energy companies, including from Germany, France and the Netherlands, are partners and invested billions in the pipelines. Ukraine had long complained that Nord Stream would allow Russia to bypass Ukrainian pipes depriving Kyiv of huge transit revenue."

[From_the_NEK]

Aaaaannnnd the circle of conversation continues in this thread. I don't care who destroyed the Nordstream pipeline. If Russia never invades Ukraine, the pipeline probably never gets a hole blown in it.

[Toadman]

Now there are reports of mines exploding as the flood waters lay waste to the land.

https://twitter.com/Sytheruk/status/1666048810475307009

[LongShortLong]

Article from a few weeks ago. Looks like the Russians were mismanaging the dam. The gates were closed. The reservoir was overfull/flooding. Water was overflowing the dam gates.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...n-occupied-dam

Speculation - Maybe the Russians forced a dam failure.

And Percy can fuck right off with that ragebait fearporn social media claptrap. You're smarter than this. There's active investigations ongoing. There will be reports. Like with most major disasters, you gotta wait while the experts do their work.

[Cono Este]

The ukranians held the north end, but the ruskies were controlling the dam.

I find it very coincidental for the dam to burst now, during all the Ukranian troop movements.

Yes, it was neglected the last yr. For obvious reasons, but unlike the horse shit speculation over Nordstream etc. this one’s pretty clear.

[Percy Rideout]

Article from a few weeks ago. Looks like the Russians were mismanaging the dam. The gates were closed. The reservoir was overfull/flooding. Water was overflowing the dam gates.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...n-occupied-dam

Speculation - Maybe the Russians forced a dam failure.

And Percy can fuck right off with that ragebait fearporn social media claptrap. You're smarter than this. There's active investigations ongoing. There will be reports. Like with most major disasters, you gotta wait while the experts do their work.

YOU, are smarter than this but yea just parrot away the MSM sanctioned story that we already know....that has :check notes: changed 3 times now. This should be the top story of 2023, but barely anybody reports on it.

Sunlight is the best disinfectant for bullshit, and for some reason the collective West doesn't want a UN international investigation. "They did their own investigations (The US and the Danish), closed the investigations, and came to the same conclusions."

Well, those "conclusions" have been Russia did it, then the blame fell on Ukranian sympathizers, then the blame falls on the Ukranian government. That's 3 decidedly different conclusions, but "you are smarter than this."

What investigations are you referring to?

[MultiVerse]

Big day coming up for Europe on 7/22. Will Putin turn the gas back on when "maintenance" of the pipeline is finished? Or does Putin hold out which will effectively crash European markets and force the Euro even lower? Putin is playing chess while the rest of Europe is playing checkers.

Sanctions force a reallocation of resources. Being unable to sell your (highly sought after) product on the global market is a pipedream crafted by the elites who think they are in charge. The playing field isn't even, and nobody even agrees on the basic rules. Russia is making record profits reallocating their oil to China and India. Wild to think that if Russia wasn't selling to the two most populous nations on the planet, oil would be even higher than it is today!

Putin only gains leverage as this conflict draws out into colder months. Time is not on NATO's side here, and European governments and their shortsighted energy decisions have nobody to blame but themselves.

No good news comes of this if the conflict goes to October and beyond.

Putin expected to use natural gas as a weapon to bend Europe to his will. Percy praised Putin for playing chess with Russian pipelines, assuring us he would "gain leverage" over Europe. His weapon failed. Europe cooperated, organized, resisted, successfully pivoted - and won. Since the initial post-invasion energy shock the cost of gas in Europe has steeply declined and Russia’s oil & gas revenue shrank by over a third.

[J. Barron DeJong]

https://twitter.com/jimmysecuk/statu...sR_NcRK2VkCfkg

[MultiVerse]

The Russians themselves, the Russian 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade, previously described how they both mined and undermined the dam. And local residents living in Russian occupied Nova Kakhovka, where the dam was blown up overnight, said they heard loud explosions at around 2 am.

[Percy Rideout]

The Russians themselves, the Russian 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade, previously described how they both mined and undermined the dam. And local residents living in Russian occupied Nova Kakhovka, where the dam was blown up overnight, said they heard loud explosions at around 2 am.

Hard to take our resident expert seriously when he has zero mention of how Ukraine damaged their own dam with US supplied HIMARS last fall.

https://web.archive.org/web/20221229...erson-donetsk/

"Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.

The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off."

Video of giant dam explosion below:

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/st...va-dam-exposed

Maybe our 36,000lb/ 21FT rocket launched at the dam did some critical damage? Maybe mention that too? Na, lets make sume dumb comment about anti personnel mines taking down a dam and omit a giant US supplied missile.

[MultiVerse]

Why mention the dam's separate flood gates when pictures clearly show the dam itself was breached?

Also gotta laugh at all the folks who swore Seymour Hersh was 100% correct that the U.S. blew up Nord Stream and couldn't be questioned only to jump on a new version of events that completely contradicts Hersh's claims...

[Percy Rideout]

Putin expected to use natural gas as a weapon to bend Europe to his will. Percy praised Putin for playing chess with Russian pipelines, assuring us he would "gain leverage" over Europe. His weapon failed. Europe cooperated, organized, resisted, successfully pivoted - and won. Since the initial post-invasion energy shock the cost of gas in Europe has steeply declined and Russia’s oil & gas revenue shrank by over a third.

You write this as if this all happened in the past in your head for some reason. Unfortunately for you, and us, we have a long way to go on some of the bold and oh so wrong (again and again) claims you made above, so let's break them down.

The cracks in Europe and NATO are just beginning to show. They haven't "won" shit yet, bub. Unfortunately, my bet is by late summer get ready for the non NATO countries to start dropping off the "No negotiations, support UKR at all costs!" bandwagon, followed by the NATO countries. We will then see some buck the EU and NATO to secure their energy futures independently from one another. This "change in the air" will eventually push for a diplomatic end to this. This will end up in a long drawn out negotiated settlement with UKR ceding territory like ive said since day 1. Russia keeps their land bridge and strategic access to the Black sea, and the resource rich eastern part of UKR. We are still in the very early stages of this despite the "won" narratives swirling around in your little head.

Trillions in EU manufacturing stymied into the future over a few billion dollars in cheap russian gas. Again, We are only seeing the beginning of this. Mentioning a Russian (short term) revenue hit without acknowledging the hollowing out of EU manufacturing for the next generation (unless the EU goes all in on nuclear) is laughable, and I cannot believe I'm investing time in a thoughtful response to show you that your consistent glaring omissions of important facts is the equivalent of you playing Solitare with a 3/4 deck of cards but with a weird conviction to try and finish the game.

I mention the dams separate flood gates because most dam failures start with a small leak, then can turn catastrophic if left unattended. UKR hit this dam with a HIMARS rocket last fall. To dumb it down for you. BIG ASS EXPLOSIVE ROCKET. Any structural cracks unattended in winter would be a delayed big dam problem come high water next year, but here you are blindly saying Russia blew it up! Not even 24 hours for the world to digest what happened. Again, it's hard to have a technical conversation with you when the basics aren't covered on your end. Childhood reading about the Dutch boy who saved his town by putting his finger in the dyke would have saved you from showing everyone a dumb comment here about your lack of understanding, but "expertly" discussing dam failures.

We haven't seen any evidence to dispute Seymour Hersh's claims, but here you go again. Do you have access to information that we don't?

[MultiVerse]

- Just a few posts upthread, J. Barron DeJong above showed how Russians screwed up their excuses for blowing up the dam last night. So it's amusing so see how you've bought in anyway and are making the same excuses as them.

- Last summer you claimed "Putin only gains leverage as this conflict draws out into colder months." Now this summer it's "the cracks in Europe and NATO are just beginning to show."

- And Seymour Hersh's claims are absurd. It's a total work of fiction from start to finish. He got that info from Russia and used that as the basis for his story just like your nonsense blaming a months old HIMARS strike for last night's dam explosion.

- It's nonsense because the flood gates are part of the lock that allows for cargo shipping and is separate from i.e. at a different location from the dam's main spillway which was blown up last night.

[LongShortLong]

YOU, are smarter than this but yea just parrot away the MSM sanctioned story that we already know....that has :check notes: changed 3 times now. This should be the top story of 2023, but barely anybody reports on it.

Sorry, I didn't know that the reservoir was already overfull and the Russians were intentionally overfilling it. I see the LA Times published that and is arguably MSM, but I haven't seen that in the dam explosion reporting. As for Ukraine bombing the dam, that was well covered during the Kherson counteroffensive, as the road across it was one of two supply lines. I'm insufficiently talented to do the mental gymnastics that forced Russia to overfill the reservoir due to Ukraine's actions 7 months ago. If it was weakened, then overfilling was doubly evil.

The overall story is easy to follow and the major players agree on it. Russia invades and occupies their neighbors. Russia acts to divide the west. Russia intends to and commits war crimes (this isn't "just" shit that happens during war). Get it straight from Putin and the Kremlin if you pathologically mistrust the west.

[Percy Rideout]

- Just a few posts upthread, J. Barron DeJong above showed how Russians screwed up their excuses for blowing up the dam last night. So it's amusing so see how you've bought in anyway and are making the same excuses as them.

- Last summer you claimed "Putin only gains leverage as this conflict draws out into colder months." Now this summer it's "the cracks in Europe and NATO are just beginning to show."

- And Seymour Hersh's claims are absurd. It's a total work of fiction from start to finish. He got that info from Russia and used that as the basis for his story just like your nonsense blaming a months old HIMARS strike for last night's dam explosion.

- It's nonsense because the flood gates are part of the lock that allows for cargo shipping and is separate from i.e. at a different location from the dam's main spillway which was blown up last night.

5 edits. Get it right yet?

War and geopolitical strife play out in much longer timelines than your attempt at playing "gotcha" with me. A healthy Nonfiction diet is your best friend to understand how this world works, and the timelines these historically important "shuffling of the chess board" play out. Hint: sometimes these foundational changes take decades. Start with the childhood book i mentioned upthread first, then work your way up from there.

What will be talked about in 50 years in college classrooms will be how the US overplayed their hands by unnecessarily weaponizing the dollar on a sanctions binge to hobble Russia (which didn't work) This seminal moment forced state actors to consider something besides the USD to hedge their bets incase their country winds up in the US crosshairs next. Being the world's reserve currency is a great place to be as a hedge against inflation. Every reserve currency failed before the USD, the USD will fall out of favor at some point too. Just hopefully not in our lifetimes, or due to US boneheaded foreign policy decisions.

You clearly didn't know about (or omitted) the fall 2022 HIMARS strike on the exact dam you are now an "expert" on. So I included it in my response to show you that you either systematically omit important information (or don't know important parts of a story) from every argument you have on here. Same as your COVID arguments that all got proven wrong within a year of you writing them.

What we can all agree on here is that slamming a 36,000lb explosive rocket into a piece of critical infrastructure doesn't exactly improve its load bearing capacity.

[Cisco Kid]

You funny.

[MultiVerse]

What we can all agree on here is that slamming a 36,000lb explosive rocket into a piece of critical infrastructure doesn't exactly improve its load bearing capacity.

lol @ 36,000lb explosive rocket.... only one of Putin’s useful right wing idiots would argue a rocket systems total mass at launch is the same thing as its much smaller 265lb warhead. From the post above: "Any sapper will give a 100% guarantee that it is impossible to make such destruction from the outside, the damage was done by planting explosives." You and the Russians are really screwing up your excuses. Too bad they don't hand out Pulitzers for works of fiction.

[J. Barron DeJong]

lol @ 36,000lb explosive rocket.... only one of Putin’s useful right wing idiots would argue a rockets total mass at launch is the same thing as its much smaller 265lb warhead. From the post above: "Any sapper will give a 100% guarantee that it is impossible to make such destruction from the outside, the damage was done by planting explosives." You and the Russians are really screwing up your excuses.

Uhhh, did you factor in the rocket fuel burning? What’s the melting temp of steel rebar?

/s

[Percy Rideout]

lol @ 36,000lb explosive rocket.... only one of Putin’s useful right wing idiots would argue a rocket systems total mass at launch is the same thing as its much smaller 265lb warhead. From the post above: "Any sapper will give a 100% guarantee that it is impossible to make such destruction from the outside, the damage was done by planting explosives." You and the Russians are really screwing up your excuses. Too bad they don't hand out Pulitzers for works of fiction.

Grasping for straws when they run out of facts, and going right for the jugular....Putin apologist. In your game of "gotcha", you got me. Great dig, bud.

"Putin Apologist" is the new McCarthyism. Can you give us a rundown on that, Wooley? Probably the only guy in this thread that was actually alive and experienced it.