Ukraine

[dunfree]

My guess is this ends in a few years after the Russian military culminates following back and forth offensives over eastern Ukraine. The Luhansk and Donetsk areas get recognized as separate states, Crimea returns to Ukrainian control and Russia is left severely embarrassed. Putin may die of natural causes over the course of the war. Russia agrees to some repatriations to restore trade agreements with the west.


To aid this we should be giving Ukraine not the weapons they need to fight inside Ukraine but the capabilities to hit Strategic targets inside Russia. Start blowing up their railways, disrupting Russian logistics for miles inside Russia.

theres intimations that it’s not capability holding back Ukraine from striking targets deeper in Russia, but permission from western Allies. That sounds probable; they blew up two refineries yesterday 100km inside Russia.


as for how it ends - Russia is grinding their military daily. It’s like 1/3 a BTG or more a day right now. They aren’t winning much and losing a lot and they still press on. It’s either a stalemate soon or a collapse

[J. Barron DeJong]

And disable the cruise missile batteries
I keep wondering why NATO isn’t helping with this as well.

I mean, what are the Russians gonna do to retaliate - bomb more?
Which they won’t be able to do if Ukraine can reach out and touch those Russian cruise missile batteries. And fuck up the supply lines

They’ve hit several fuel depot’s inside of Russia, so it’s happening to some extent. Not sure what if any NATO aid was involved in those strikes.

[SumJongGuy]

Germany is now sending tanks and agreeing to reduce Russian fuel imports..

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/26/europ...ntl/index.html

Maybe someone will have the balls to give Ukraine those MIGs..

[TBS]

The fuel depot hits were via Bayraktar. They are slow and won’t evade anti-missile defenses.

I fully support giving Ukraine the artillery capability to take out the Russian missile batteries.

[J. Barron DeJong]

The fuel depot hits were via Bayraktar. They are slow and won’t evade anti-missile defenses.

I fully support giving Ukraine the artillery capability to take out the Russian missile batteries.

Well, reports are they fucked with Moskva’s missile defenses pretty well

[abraham]

Well, reports are they fucked with Moskva’s missile defenses pretty well

The washing machines helped.

[Viva]

Do you think that would really end it? If Putin is killed tomorrow does his successor (Mishustin?) keep it rolling or does he bail on the effort? I think there would need to be a larger change in Russia for them to bail on the Ukraine effort.

Yeah, I kinda agree with this response. Of course we lack insight into the middle echelons of Russian governance. Still, on the whole, my gut feeling is negative- as Putin's circle contracts, no bright stars emerge from his murky firmament, and we see few, if any, seemingly willing to buck this shit-fuck of his creation. There are a few brave figures like Navalny, but only very few. Once there were men like Gorbachev who were willing to take a chance, but from what I read from experts like Ziehan and what I've personally heard from Russian ex-patriates, such men are long gone.

[ex-powderbroker]

moldova is a bigger shitshow than ukraine. more corrupt and poorer, europe has done nothing to help the citizenry there. the separatists pretending it is still soviet times may have a better quality of life than people in chisinau. one thing that the west has to do is make the case and prove that our ideals actually make regular people’s lives better and not not just turn a blind eye to crony capitalism bs or else it really plays into putler’s propagandistic hands. i hope the war doesn’t expand but it seems to fit in the escalate to deescalate doctrine to open as many fronts as possible. they can always pull in more people from the east, syria, libya etc (at a rate of 100/mo i heard) to be fodder. fucking sad. fuck putler.

xavier - i hate putin and am really optimistic about most things and made a comment about crimea going back to ukraine a week or two ago, but realistically i think holding onto the donbas is more likely. if they lose the donbas i don’t see how they would gain crimea, logistically. and i just don’t see how that war would end either. crimea is a fully functional military outpost and putler would just kill his own people rather than see it returned. maybe if there is a coup it could happen?

[summit]

[billyk]

The fuel depot hits were via Bayraktar. They are slow and won’t evade anti-missile defenses.

I fully support giving Ukraine the artillery capability to take out the Russian missile batteries.

Howitzers have a range of about 16 miles. The longest accurate range of any artillery in history was 75 miles, and that was the German Paris gun which had a 100 ft barrel.

Russian cruise missiles have a range of over a thousand miles. It will be difficult to take out cruise missile batteries with artillery.

[TBS]

Howitzers have a range of about 16 miles. The longest accurate range of any artillery in history was 75 miles, and that was the German Paris gun which had a 100 ft barrel.

Russian cruise missiles have a range of over a thousand miles. It will be difficult to take out cruise missile batteries with artillery.

Poor choice of terms on my part. I have no problem giving Ukraine cruise missile batteries to take out the Russian batteries

[XavierD]

I sincerely doubt there will be a coup.

It’s crazy to me how many news agencies and people are wondering if this will go on for months. It’s going to last years. Aside from the months speculation this article is really good. https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian...ne-11650879002

In March, Rus­sia’s largest tank man­u­fac­turer, Ural­vagon­za­vod, said it was fur­lough­ing some work­ers. A rep­re­sen­ta­tive of its trade union said that the en­ter­prise, which is un­der U.S. and Eu­ropean sanc­tions, was strug­gling with short­ages of parts for com­po­nents such as car­tridge bear­ings, which it could no longer source from sup­pli­ers in Swe­den and else­where be­cause of sanc­tions.

Additionally discusses the impact to Russia as an international arms supplier. India is the dark horse of the 21st century and it’s Army is heavily supplied by Russia. They probably won’t adopt China, who doesn’t have a strong arms export arm anyway. This leaves them open to leverage from western/NATO suppliers. This is also true for other large militaries around the world.


Another advantage of putting export cruise missiles in Ukraine is we can start to stress and test Russia’s missiles and air defense systems. Can export tomahawks penetrate Russian defense systems?

[Viva]

moldova is a bigger shitshow than ukraine. more corrupt and poorer, europe has done nothing to help the citizenry there. the separatists pretending it is still soviet times may have a better quality of life than people in chisinau.

Not so fast. We recently voted in a pro-West President over the pro-Russian Ivan...Igor...Dodon (his surname is slang for "rubber" or "condom" BTW), so, we're not exactly a Russian lackey, and very much west-leaning. The issue here is with all the fucking Russians who happily migrated to the area during Soviet times. Major political decisions are made under the yoke of this form of occupation, and re-unification with Romania remains impossible. With respect to quality-of-life, I rather enjoy hangin' in Chisinau. Of course the skiing sucks, and that's why I spend most of my time in Colorado.

[XavierD]

Howitzers have a range of about 16 miles. The longest accurate range of any artillery in history was 75 miles, and that was the German Paris gun which had a 100 ft barrel.

Russian cruise missiles have a range of over a thousand miles. It will be difficult to take out cruise missile batteries with artillery.

Russian MLRS have ranges of 45-100+ Km

[dunfree]

I sincerely doubt there will be a coup.

It’s crazy to me how many news agencies and people are wondering if this will go on for months. It’s going to last years. Aside from the months speculation this article is really good. https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian...ne-11650879002



Additionally discusses the impact to Russia as an international arms supplier. India is the dark horse of the 21st century and it’s Army is heavily supplied by Russia. They probably won’t adopt China, who doesn’t have a strong arms export arm anyway. This leaves them open to leverage from western/NATO suppliers. This is also true for other large militaries around the world.


Another advantage of putting export cruise missiles in Ukraine is we can start to stress and test Russia’s missiles and air defense systems. Can export tomahawks penetrate Russian defense systems?

bearings, electronic components, nav systems, the entirety of Russian industry is dependent on foreign (mostly western) sourcing. Which is why it won’t go on for years. They can’t lose years worth of planes and tanks and apcs every month for years - and even more so the very expensive people crewing them.

[dunfree]

Howitzers have a range of about 16 miles. The longest accurate range of any artillery in history was 75 miles, and that was the German Paris gun which had a 100 ft barrel.

Russian cruise missiles have a range of over a thousand miles. It will be difficult to take out cruise missile batteries with artillery.

theres rocket assisted rounds with longer range that have/are being shipped to ukraine

part of the reason Russians are killing baby’s in condos is because their cruise missiles are often obsolete shit with guidance from the 1970s

[XavierD]

Apparently Russian ADA was a bit active last night; or tried to be.

[summit]

Russia cuts off gas to Poland and Bulgaria

https://www.reuters.com/world/poland...es-2022-04-26/

[Adolf Allerbush]

Russia cuts off gas to Poland and Bulgaria

https://www.reuters.com/world/poland...es-2022-04-26/

Maybe Putin's goal is to encourage Europe to abandon fossil fuels to fight against anthropogenic climate change?

[dunfree]

Another Russian ammo dump blows up. So sad

[neufox47]

Howitzers have a range of about 16 miles. The longest accurate range of any artillery in history was 75 miles, and that was the German Paris gun which had a 100 ft barrel.

Russian cruise missiles have a range of over a thousand miles. It will be difficult to take out cruise missile batteries with artillery.

Your overall point is accurate. US rocket propelled artillery is now going out to 40km with a new system that will go 70km. Still a long ways from a cruise missile.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[XavierD]

Your overall point is accurate. US rocket propelled artillery is now going out to 40km with a new system that will go 70km. Still a long ways from a cruise missile.

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

M31 can change the landscape past 70km. Russian ones can go further. US Doctrine is focused on using penetration air attacks for the deeper fight, as well as having relatively uncontested airspace.

[LongShortLong]

This guy Perun has good videos on war economics. In a war of attrition, Russia can draw on a huge stock of soviet armor. That doesn't mean they win, just that they may be able to replace losses from their stock.


Maybe it was Perun, or someone else who said the current line of contact is too long for the size of the current armies. One will lose too many units to attrition, and the other will then be able to push through weak areas into the other's rear. I do notice that for all the western optimism for Ukraine, Russia has occupied a roughly 100 mile wide strip of southern Ukraine for two months now, with no significant loss of controlled territory.

Also to a comment about the possibility of Ukraine retaining all but Crimea... that likely won't happen without a peace agreement. Whoever controls Kherson Oblast controls Crimea's water supply canal from the Dnieper. Ukraine was already turning the screws on Russia's occupation these last 8 years.

And I can't help but notice the historical development of these regions means the "Russian" areas of Ukraine and Moldova are the valuable industrial regions, and the "non-Russian" areas are rural agricultural areas. I haven't looked at pre-war GDP, but would not be surprised at all to find "Russian" regions out-produce the much larger rural areas.

So while it looks like Russia occupies hardly any territory, they may actually occupy the majority of Ukraine's value (same for Moldova).

[TBS]

Looks like more spontaneous combustion in Belgorod, Russia
https://mobile.twitter.com/rprose/st...a81c861304%2F0

[MultiVerse]

U.S. intel helps Ukraine protect air defenses

Ukraine continues to move air defenses and aircraft nearly every day with the help of American intelligence, which is one reason Russia has not been able to establish air dominance. In some cases, Ukraine moved the targeted air defense systems or planes just in time, the officials said.

“The Russian military has literally been cratering empty fields where air defenses were once set up,” one U.S. official said. “It has had an enormous impact on the Russian military’s ability on the ground.”


Ukrainian jet takes off while Russian missiles landing nearby:

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/...96439209316353


On a speculative note, U.S. intel probably explains in large part why Ukraine has been so successful targeting Russian command and control.