Ukraine

[dunfree]

Percy is once again about a week late with his pro-Putin talking points. Also, too, a major refinery shortage is contributing more to high gas prices than Russian sanctions. Not to mention oil is fungible, the EU only imposed a partial ban on Russian oil, and gas is not embargoed.

So instead of rehashing old news, Putin is our generation's Hitler. The free world either helps Ukraine stop Putin now or pay an even bigger price in the near future. Appeasement has never worked with evil people. So why would someone living in America, living in Aspen, support Putin?

you know the answer. Because they see the west as decadent and depraved and want it destroyed. And they can’t actually agree with “the other”

[Percy Rideout]

Percy is once again about a week late with his pro-Putin talking points. Also, too, a major refinery shortage is contributing more to high gas prices than Russian sanctions. Not to mention oil is fungible, the EU only imposed a partial ban on Russian oil, and gas is not embargoed.

So instead of rehashing old news, Putin is our generation's Hitler. The free world either helps Ukraine stop Putin now or pay an even bigger price in the near future. Appeasement has never worked with evil people. So why would someone living in America, living in Aspen, support Putin?

Support Putin? Nice try with the mental gymnastics there.

Claiming Russia militarily inept while simultaneously worried about world domination does bring the laughs. Pick one and stick with it. Those statements are mutually exclusive.

Exactly Like I said would happen months ago, Russia now successfully controls the eastern part of the country (despite our best efforts and $$billions$$$ in aid) and is prepared to defend their land bridge to the Black Sea and their naval base on the crimean peninsula. NATO is slowly getting dragged into a war (even though they think they aren't), and the US needs to play the adult here for the sake of the rest of the world, but we have to depend on this administration's State Department to make magic happen. I won't hold my breath considering they can't even pick up the phone.

Also just like i said months ago, there is inexplicably still no push for a diplomatic solution or even an open conversation to try and reach some kind of middle ground. People are dying every day we wait. Time is not on our (The West's) side, and our bumbling leaders don't seem to comprehend this and are ready for a long war of attrition (again at the expense of ukranian lives, US treasure, and potentially Europe's economy and currency).

Political scientists will write books in 20 years about this bungled diplomatic "effort" that never was, especially if things escalate form here.

Maybe stick to one of the COVID threads where your worldviews and opinions on the matter have been proven dead wrong, but yeah keep regurgitating everything you see on ABC world news tonight. The clown paint looks good on your face.

[Cono Este]

There are some starkly obvious logical fails in the Posen piece. Relying on the fact that Russia hasn't collapsed to conclude that they didn't actually suffer significant losses at the beginning, for example. Despite the obvious and undeniable retreat. And assuming they aren't propping up their numbers by sending conscripts just because they say they won't--and despite all the evidence that they've been doing so from the beginning.

What's the point of a piece like that? Is the audience just people who aren't paying attention? It's pretty long for that audience, unless they really want to believe this and stick with it for that reason. Reads like Greenwald-level quisling nonsense for the wishful. Sad thing to wish for.

There were some good points. Like sanctions effecting both sides.

I don’t agree Ukraine is making progress. They have been on the defense this far and losing ground. To turn the tide and retake their territory would require a multiple of the men and equipment they have now. All things being equal, they hold their lines and 2-3 yrs from now neither side has gained anything. And it’s hard for me to say they will have superiority unless the west sends them tanks and not just defensive weapons like javelins or armored cars. A decision the west has not yet made.




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[dunfree]

Lol

[LHutz Esq]

There were some good points. Like sanctions effecting both sides.

I don’t agree Ukraine is making progress. They have been on the defense this far and losing ground. To turn the tide and retake their territory would require a multiple of the men and equipment they have now. All things being equal, they hold their lines and 2-3 yrs from now neither side has gained anything. And it’s hard for me to say they will have superiority unless the west sends them tanks and not just defensive weapons like javelins or armored cars. A decision the west has not yet made.




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HIMARS is a "defensive weapon"?

Seems to be in the "best defense is a good offence" meaning of "defense"

[MultiVerse]

Support Putin?

Exactly Like I said would happen months ago,

Also just like i said months ago, there is inexplicably still no push for a diplomatic solution or even an open conversation to try and reach some kind of middle ground.

Political scientists will write books in 20 years about this bungled diplomatic "effort" that never was.

- Yes, you've consistently promoted pro-Putin talking points

- You didn't say it "would happen," you bragged about it after it happened

- You falsely claimed and continue to claim there was "no push for a diplomatic solution" even though your own sources proved otherwise. You also continue to ignore the fact Putin ended discussions, not the Europeans and not Biden

- Speaking of so called diplomatic solutions, how many times will Putin & his gangster cabal have to say that their end goal is elimination of Ukrainian sovereignty & identity before appeasers will finally believe them & stop existing in la-la land where offering parts of Ukraine to Russia brings lasting peace?

- So the question remains why would someone living in America, living in Aspen, continue to carry water for Putin?

[J. Barron DeJong]

I don’t agree Ukraine is making progress. They have been on the defense this far and losing ground.

Maybe we should see how this plays out before jumping to defeatist conclusions:



https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/...Yb-YlbX-uqNa0A

Ranged fire seems to have been the only strength of RU’s over the past months: completely destroy the ground in front, then advance.

Now they may have lost their only moderately successful tactic.

[dunfree]

Cono is a demonstrable idiot and liar, so is asspan/pussycuntout.

himars,m777, Cesar, German spgs, plenty of offensive weapons shipped. The two pussys root for failure and like misery.

[jono]

There were some good points. Like sanctions effecting both sides.

War effects both sides. That sanctions would be otherwise is an amazingly infantile presumption.

HIMARS vs. Russian logistics have every chance to roll things back to March. But you're right that we should hurry up.

[MultiVerse]

FWIW, people like Rod and Percy argue "sanctions are hurting us more than Russia." It's one of Putin's favorite talking points. And it's simply not true. According to Russia's own central bank its economy shrunk and will grow very little if at all for years while European countries will experience continued growth in spite of high gas prices:

Attachment 421351

[Cono Este]

War effects both sides. That sanctions would be otherwise is an amazingly infantile presumption.

HIMARS vs. Russian logistics have every chance to roll things back to March. But you're right that we should hurry up.

They need more. A lot more than we’re giving them.

Until I see 100 M1-a tanks, or Apache gunships being sent over, I predict a stalemate. That may be good for us, but not Ukraine.


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[Cono Este]

FWIW, people like Rod and Percy argue "sanctions are hurting us more than Russia." It's one of Putin's favorite talking points. And it's simply not true. According to Russia's own central bank its economy shrunk and will grow very little if at all for years while European countries will experience continued growth in spite of high gas prices:

Attachment 421351

Fuck, what sanctions? 5 months in we can’t even get the Germans to stop buying gas from Russia for one day.


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[MultiVerse]

Other sectors of Russia's economy, apart from petroleum exports, have been devastated not only by sanctions but especially by import/export restrictions. Russia, for example, is currently begging Iran for drones because it can no longer manufacture its own.

Until I see 100 M1-a tanks, or Apache gunships being sent over, I predict a stalemate. That may be good for us, but not Ukraine.

I don't think Ukraine specifically needs Abrams tanks or Apache gunships to win, but your overall point is sound. The West is far to concerned about provoking Putin to provide weapons at the scale needed to end the war quickly. Ukraine has the manpower to defeat Russia but they need a lot more heavy weapons & munitions to do it.

[dunfree]

I don't think Ukraine specifically needs Abrams tanks or Apache gunships to win, but your overall point is sound. The West is far to concerned about provoking Putin to provide weapons at the scale needed to end the war quickly. Ukraine has the manpower to defeat Russia but they need a lot more heavy weapons & munitions to do it.

the question is still what weapons and weapons systems Ukraine can absorb and deploy; Apache gun ships are going to have a bit of a learning curve (months) as well as a logistics effort to back them up, M1A1 drink fuel with their Turbine engines and require other logistics. Ukraine has stated loudly and publicly they want more weapons, the question is the gulf between requests, capability to absorb, and western supplies. I don’t think cuntys point is sound

it is perhaps premature to declare a stalemate

[MultiVerse]

It's about stockpiles and ability to produce munitions. Ukraine is firing about 3K artillery rounds a day (versus 50K for Russia a week ago) which means they have about a three months supply before running out. In spite of Russia's recent setbacks due to ammo depots blowing up, so far there's little indication Russian stockpiles, at large, are running low.

[rod9301]

FWIW, people like Rod and Percy argue "sanctions are hurting us more than Russia." It's one of Putin's favorite talking points. And it's simply not true. According to Russia's own central bank its economy shrunk and will grow very little if at all for years while European countries will experience continued growth in spite of high gas prices:

Attachment 421351

The difference is that the west, US and EU, isa democracy and Russia is firmly controlled by Putin.

The Russians will put up with hardship, because they have no choice.

The people on the west have a choice, to replace their leaders. And pressure them.

Btw, not clear that the chart you posted is true. Us and eu seem headed to a recession.

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[Cono Este]

Other sectors of Russia's economy, apart from petroleum exports, have been devastated not only by sanctions but especially by import/export restrictions. Russia, for example, is currently begging Iran for drones because it can no longer manufacture its own.




I don't think Ukraine specifically needs Abrams tanks or Apache gunships to win, but your overall point is sound. The West is far to concerned about provoking Putin to provide weapons at the scale needed to end the war quickly. Ukraine has the manpower to defeat Russia but they need a lot more heavy weapons & munitions to do it.

I would hope we are training Ukranians back here on those weapons systems just in case. F-16’s too.


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[jono]

I would hope we are training Ukranians back here on those weapons systems just in case. F-16’s too.

Nice to see you've come around. But considering training we can do it faster by just giving them longer range rockets for the HIMARS. And more of them, of course.

[Cono Este]

Nice to see you've come around. But considering training we can do it faster by just giving them longer range rockets for the HIMARS. And more of them, of course.

HIMARS can’t retake ground. They can hit supply lines and soften up entrenched positions etc. but you need men and tanks to kick the Russians out. And they say you need a 4-1 advantage in numbers which they will never have.

My position has not changed. They will end up ultimately negotiating for peace or it will be ww3. I do not see them retaking any lost territory. I know some will say Putin won’t honor the deal, but time is worth something. You can shore up the rest of the country, maybe even put them in NATO.

I heard a notable fellow mention that the ground is dry now, that the battle of Kursk was in this time of yr. Tanks can maneuver more.


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[MultiVerse]

I would hope we are training Ukranians back here on those weapons systems just in case. F-16’s too.

Heh, three months ago everyone including me said it would take too long, at least three months, to train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s. Here we are three months later and if F-16s were joining the fight now it would make a huge difference. Ukraine could probably achieve air superiority with a squadron or two of F-16s.

HIMARS can’t retake ground. They can hit supply lines and soften up entrenched positions etc. but you need men and tanks to kick the Russians out. And they say you need a 4-1 advantage in numbers which they will never have.

Soldiers are not machines. Those numbers assume Russian soldiers are willing to defend against overwhelming odds. Russia already has significant morale and logistics problems in spite of its current numerical advantages. Russian soldiers don't believe in the cause, they don't trust their leadership, they're only in it for a paycheck, and many are either deserting or scheming up ways to go home.

[jono]

HIMARS can’t retake ground. They can hit supply lines and soften up entrenched positions etc. but you need men and tanks to kick the Russians out. And they say you need a 4-1 advantage in numbers which they will never have.

My position has not changed. They will end up ultimately negotiating for peace or it will be ww3. I do not see them retaking any lost territory. I know some will say Putin won’t honor the deal, but time is worth something. You can shore up the rest of the country, maybe even put them in NATO.

I heard a notable fellow mention that the ground is dry now, that the battle of Kursk was in this time of yr. Tanks can maneuver more.

Don't underestimate Russia's ability to cock up the logistics and starve while surrounded by local spotters calling in rockets every time they gather to get fuel or food. Russia has to either keep moving forward, retreat, or win the standoff battle. I'm not convinced they can do the latter and they've "voluntarily" paused the former.

Air superiority already favors Ukraine, as evidenced by the Russians firing things from distance. And tanks may well fear Javelins like pilots fear stingers--or, worse for them, they may not. But all of this factors together: Putin ordered a "pause." That's how we know.

[4matic]

I’m optimistic for the future of Ukraine rebuilt with western partners:

Excluding Russia’s gas reserves in Asia, Ukraine today holds the second biggest known gas reserves in Europe. As of late 2019, known Ukrainian reserves amounted to 1.09 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, second only to Norway’s known resources of 1.53 trillion cubic meters. Yet, these enormous reserves of energy remain largely untapped. Today, Ukraine has a low annual reserve usage rate of about 2 percent. Moreover, more active exploration may yield previously undiscovered gas fields, which would further increase the overall volume of Ukraine’s deposits.

[4matic]

Ukraine Grain exports are proceeding through the Danube. Ships lining up

[ötzi]

^^That gas, and the huge amount of oil under the Ukrainian portion of the Black Sea, are central to this whole debacle. With those resources developed Russia would have had far less leverage on the West and Putin knew it. Basically Russia wanted to eliminate a potential competitor.

[PB]

https://gripped.com/news/russian-cli...t-certificate/

So .... Fuck Nepal??
Seems a bit excessive.