Ukraine

[summit]

Is Russia a threat? Is Ukraine a strategic interest to the US, NATO, and the Free World?

The relative weight of the USSR and WP versus pre-89 NATO was a much more balanced in terms of population and the GDPs were closer to allow an existential conventional military threat to be absolutely seriously feared for Western Europe.

Russia today is not a huge conventional threat against NATO... IF AND ONLY IF... NATO is willing to cohesively stand strong against Russian expansionism, Russian threats to the free world, and threats to NATO.

However, Russia today is absolutely huge threat to non-NATO nations. Russia's specific actions in Ukraine are a threat to NATO and the Free World's idea of rule-based self-determination and the liberal democratic systems for which hundreds of millions died in the 20th century either to earn and defend, or as the victims of those who opposed it (communism, fascism, imperialism).

IF Russia were to capture own both another 40 million people in Ukraine, the strategic terrain, and the economic productivity of Ukraine, that would be a HUGE increase in the Russian threat to NATO and non-NATO at a time when NATO needs to pivot to face the threat of China. All of Russia's next aggressive expansionist imperial moves would be smaller... for a while... but would force NATO's further expenditure of resources and military investment toward countering a Russian threat and closer to 1988 levels instead of focusing on countering China.

So grinding Russia down until they go away or until the power-brokers inside Russia decide they want a new guy in charge is absolutely the intelligent move for the US, NATO, and the Free World. Ukraine will pay the highest price for this, but will be rewarded for their blood with freedom. Russia, and only Russia, is to blame for Ukraine's suffering.

[MultiVerse]

The more important reason to support Ukraine is the treaty breaking. We took Ukraines nukes away with the assurances from both Russian and others that they would not take offensive action. That is being proven not to be the case. If we do not step in to protect them now, we incentivize a new era of nuclear proliferation while simultaneously eliminating any possibility nations will disarm. It will make all the concerns of Cono and others even worse, and put the MAD buttons in the hands of more people, some of whom may be unhinged.

Right, and Ukraine also signed the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership with the Russian Federation on 31 May 1997. All the conditions were written down – guarantees, inviolability, independence – a major treaty focused on respecting borders and sovereignty.

It was all there. And where is it all now? To date, none of Russia's many conflicts over the past three decades have ended with negotiations and peace. Just a pattern of perpetual war with Russia waiting for the West to move on before trying to grab even more with each round.

[grinch]

Not to mention their MO is killing civilians every conflict they enter into. That alone shoildnt get a pass. #fuckputin

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[Toadman]

Is Russia a threat? Is Ukraine a strategic interest to the US, NATO, and the Free World?


Russia today is not a huge conventional threat against NATO... IF AND ONLY IF... NATO is willing to cohesively stand strong against Russian expansionism, Russian threats to the free world, and threats to NATO.

IDK. Based on how hard it seems for NATO countries to get their acts together, Russia might have been able to do a blitzkrieg style attack on NATO and they would have been left scrambling to respond. Granted attacking a NATO country(ies) is a lot different than attacking a country like Ukraine.

[leroy jenkins]

IDK. Based on how hard it seems for NATO countries to get their acts together, Russia might have been able to do a blitzkrieg style attack on NATO and they would have been left scrambling to respond. Granted attacking a NATO country(ies) is a lot different than attacking a country like Ukraine.

Their blitzkrieg style attack on ukraine has not gone amazingly well for them. Why would an attack on all of nato go better?



Even if china joined the war against nato it would be awful for the world and billions would die but as of right now I don't think theres a chance in hell of a russo chinese alliance being able to win against nato.

[cspringsposer]

IDK. Based on how hard it seems for NATO countries to get their acts together, Russia might have been able to do a blitzkrieg style attack on NATO and they would have been left scrambling to respond. Granted attacking a NATO country(ies) is a lot different than attacking a country like Ukraine.

NATO is fairly well prepared for such an attack. That's why there are standing task forces and constant NATO patrols throughout the Alliance's AOR.

[ex-powderbroker]

i think people get the politics confused with battle-readiness.

[PB]

While I would agree with Russia not being willing to challenge NATO straight up, they're pretty good at asymmetric warfare I hear.

[leroy jenkins]

Since we're discussing seemingly far fetched possibilities that don't have much to do with the current war, who here thinks India is in danger of falling into the Chinese sphere of influence in the coming years? They are far from on friendly terms currently, but India is no longer officially considered a democracy, too autocratic and corrupt, and China has them by the balls water wise, and they really aren't closely aligned with the west as is, financially or ideologcially.

I don't think its going to happen any time super soon, but if Russia gets Ukraine, and grows in power and influence in the coming years, and India moves steadily away from the western powers and towards China, I could see it being not THAT long until a Russo Indo Chinese alliance with a smattering of other neighboring countries thrown in, could absolutely challenge Nato and the West.

[summit]

India is absolutely not looking to be dominated by China. They rightly see Chinas geopolitical weaknesses versus their own and realize there is not a huge reason that they cannot ascend above China as China's power waxes then wanes.

India has long looked to Russia to counterbalance China. India needs more counterbalance as China gets stronger.

As Russia gets closer to (dependent on) China due to desperation in the current conflict, the more India is looking to the West as the counterbalance. This shift is especially palatable now as the West and Pakistan are no longer so intertwined. Previously, the West and Pakistan were allied to counter Russia and then the Afghanistan war kept that relationship on life support, but that is over as of 18 moths ago.

India was always a better fit with the West vs Pakistan and/or China.

[cspringsposer]

Since we're discussing seemingly far fetched possibilities that don't have much to do with the current war, who here thinks India is in danger of falling into the Chinese sphere of influence in the coming years? They are far from on friendly terms currently, but India is no longer officially considered a democracy, too autocratic and corrupt, and China has them by the balls water wise, and they really aren't closely aligned with the west as is, financially or ideologcially.

I don't think its going to happen any time super soon, but if Russia gets Ukraine, and grows in power and influence in the coming years, and India moves steadily away from the western powers and towards China, I could see it being not THAT long until a Russo Indo Chinese alliance with a smattering of other neighboring countries thrown in, could absolutely challenge Nato and the West.

I think current geopolitical realities are fairly different than your analysis. Additionally, India is/was the leader of the NAM. They very much still take pride in the NAM leadership.

[cspringsposer]

India is absolutely not looking to be dominated by China. They rightly see Chinas geopolitical weaknesses versus their own and realize there is not a huge reason that they cannot ascend above China as China's power waxes then wanes.

India has long looked to Russia to counterbalance China. India needs more counterbalance as China gets stronger.

As Russia gets closer to (dependent on) China due to desperation in the current conflict, the more India is looking to the West. This is especially palatable as the West and Pakistan are no longer close (the West and Pakistan were allied to counter Russia and then the Afghanistan war kept that relationship on life support).

Beat me to it Summit. Agree 100%. India is very much leaning more west as they see themselves (as we do) as the counterbalance to China. Having dealt with Indian politics previously, I cant overstate the relevancy of the NAM to their international posture and actions.

[leroy jenkins]

I think current geopolitical realities are fairly different than your analysis. Additionally, India is/was the leader of the NAM. They very much still take pride in the NAM leadership.

You're right, I don't see this as being a current possibility but rather something that could happen in the next decade or two.

Again, this was filed under 'outlandish possibilities' as more surrounding countries move into the Chinese sphere of influence.

Its about the only way I see a russochinese alliance being able to threaten the west anytime remotely soon, besides undermining us from within.

[summit]

Having dealt with Indian politics previously, I cant overstate the relevancy of the NAM to their international posture and actions.

You do make a very key point here. India is a prudent but proud and independently minded country. They could be a friend as well as an ally if their independence is respected. I think their interests and the West's interests are aligning while barriers to trust and alliance are clearing away.

[leroy jenkins]

India is absolutely not looking to be dominated by China. They rightly see Chinas geopolitical weaknesses versus their own and realize there is not a huge reason that they cannot ascend above China as China's power waxes then wanes.

India has long looked to Russia to counterbalance China. India needs more counterbalance as China gets stronger.

As Russia gets closer to (dependent on) China due to desperation in the current conflict, the more India is looking to the West as the counterbalance. This shift is especially palatable now as the West and Pakistan are no longer so intertwined. Previously, the West and Pakistan were allied to counter Russia and then the Afghanistan war kept that relationship on life support, but that is over as of 18 moths ago.

India was always a better fit with the West vs Pakistan and/or China.

Not dominated by china, perhaps even more like dominating china someday as china faces demographic collapse and india doesnt in a decade or so.

Again, idle conjecture since it seems like thats where this thread currently was anyways given the current topic of 'could russia take nato'



I guess my point with this idle conjecture is that Ukraine is a variable in the future of India and China, going back to the questions about Russia being viewed as a viable threat to the west. Well, if they take ukraine it will change things over the next decade.

If Russia does not take ukraine then what I'm talking about is exceedingly far fetched.

[cspringsposer]

You do make a very key point here. India is a prudent but proud and independently minded country. They could be a friend as well as an ally if their independence is respected. I think their interests and the West's interests are aligning while barriers to trust and alliance are clearing away.

Complete agreement again. India can definitely be an ally if interests align, but they won't align interests just to be an ally. Fortunately, China is making it easy for their interests to align with ours the past few years.

As we have been watching the high rate of failure in Russian military eqpt on the battlefield, I have really been wondering what India is thinking and if it will impact future military procurements from Russia. They currently have a significant amount of Russian military hardware in their armed forces.

[dunfree]

As we have been watching the high rate of failure in Russian military eqpt on the battlefield, I have really been wondering what India is thinking and if it will impact future military procurements from Russia. They currently have a significant amount of Russian military hardware in their armed forces.

In 1999 India was using Russian Krasnopol guided artillery rounds and found them defective, then tested them in 2004 and 2005 found them defective and it became a scandal late in the 00s and eventually India switched to US made stock in 2019. I suspect a performance deficit is known, but Indian bureaucracy has its own rationale and timetable. Also Russia has been more willing to transfer tech, and license production.

[rideit]

Oh, man.

[Toadman]

"FIRST COME THE TANKS, THEN COME THE NUKES. Get this crazy war ended, NOW. So easy to do," Trump, who is running for president again in 2024, said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-sug...234832454.html

I'm sure Trump would just get on the phone with his BFF and get the war ended just like Trump ended the Korean war with KJU.

[Cocximus]

What if Trump wins? Extremists are also gaining ground in Germany and other countries. Will liberal democracies send tanks l tanks to Russia to end the war swiftly?

[uglymoney]

Maybe I'm wearing rose colored glasses and I could be very wrong in the end, but my hunch is that this illegal war by Putin has been very hard on the extremists. It certainly makes their narrative harder to defend and it becomes harder to recruit people.

Time will tell.

Certainly will be a scary world if they continue to gain power.

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[LongShortLong]

Oh, man.

Yep. Send more. This is what we built most of our tanks for. Use them! Listening to some of the excuses out of DC, I think some of our generals are worried that if we send the 100s or 1000s of tanks we built to counter Russia, the generals' jobs will change and maybe disappear. That's the real reason there are no spares. So long as the Eurasian land invader threat exists, we need tanks. If Ukraine finishes Russia, the Eurasian land invader threat goes away. This is a win for the world's nations and people, but a loss for our generals who prepare for tank wars.

[Cono Este]

6-9 months to get 31 Abraham’s to Ukraine.

Too bad we have to fucking advertise everything.

[Cisco Kid]

Good chance that's propaganda and they'll be ready to kill Russians in 90 days.

[Bunion 2020]

I looked for confirmation of that claim and came up empty. There are plenty of M1A1s sitting in EU warehouses that can be replaced.