Ukraine

[Cisco Kid]

Trucks/trains + Spare parts will be the limiting factor for the Russian war effort. Not munitions.

Blunting Germany's capability to resupply the Axis troops was as big a factor in winning as the Red Ball Express in supplying the Allies. My hope is for success with the new weapons systems on the way. Then the Ukes will be able accurately target the Ruskies long range weapons.

[neufox47]

https://www.thebulwark.com/how-to-co...n-ukraine/?amp

Interesting article about what Ukraine needs to do to counter Russian artillery


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[Cono Este]

Blunting Germany's capability to resupply the Axis troops was as big a factor in winning as the Red Ball Express in supplying the Allies. My hope is for success with the new weapons systems on the way. Then the Ukes will be able accurately target the Ruskies long range weapons.

That’s not going to happen. We’re not sending them enough, and if we sent them long range weapons to hit inside Russian supply lines the scope of the war would widen. Biden is not going to do that.

So we’ve basically limited what we’re sending them and tied one hand behind their back on conditions. Meanwhile Russia, which is directly next store, can do whatever they want including driving supplies right into Ukraine via rail.


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[jono]

A month ago you were sure the Ukrainians couldn't learn to use HIMARS, too.

[bennymac]

A month ago you were sure the Ukrainians couldn't learn to use HIMARS, too.

Let’s go a bit further back to when he said Ukraine was corrupt and full of Nazis

[ötzi]

Unguided artillery is great at smashing stuff that's just sitting there, not so much at hitting stuff that moves. Plus the Russians have mobility issues. Seems like getting out of the way while they smash empty shit and then coming back when they're trying to move their stuff around would be the play.

[Cono Este]

A month ago you were sure the Ukrainians couldn't learn to use HIMARS, too.

They are still having problems. Read that article about artillery.

You guys are nuts if you think you can learn that shit In a week.


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[jono]

They are still having problems. Read that article about artillery.

You guys are nuts if you think you can learn that shit In a week.

Lol. The article is about to be 3 weeks old. And you were concerned they couldn't learn in 3 weeks--but that was a month ago. Everyone else is nuts. Yup.

[highangle]

They are still having problems. Read that article about artillery.

You guys are nuts if you think you can learn that shit In a week.


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You couldn't learn it in a decade...
Ever heard of "civilian techreps"? Myeah.

[highangle]

Unguided artillery is great at smashing stuff that's just sitting there, not so much at hitting stuff that moves. Plus the Russians have mobility issues. Seems like getting out of the way while they smash empty shit and then coming back when they're trying to move their stuff around would be the play.

Or mass drone attacks while they're firing and revealing their positions to counterbattery radars?


Pretty sure the Ukes thought this eventuality through, since it's old Soviet doctrine, and the Russkies haven't evolved one whit since the Soviet days.

[dunfree]

Lol. The article is about to be 3 weeks old. And you were concerned they couldn't learn in 3 weeks--but that was a month ago. Everyone else is nuts. Yup.

Its really a tossup between “the west isn’t providing enough weapons fast enough and Ukraine can’t learn the weapons we need to give them” and “Russia has vast untapped non-nuclear modern combat capability it could deploy in Ukraine if it wanted with no strategic penalty , but it’s happy shredding new and old gear at the same time” for narratives that don’t pass the smell test. Yup, Russia just left a Pantsir SAM on snake island because they can build new better ones asap.

[jono]

Its really a tossup between “the west isn’t providing enough weapons fast enough and Ukraine can’t learn the weapons we need to give them” and “Russia has vast untapped non-nuclear modern combat capability it could deploy in Ukraine if it wanted with no strategic penalty , but it’s happy shredding new and old gear at the same time” for narratives that don’t pass the smell test. Yup, Russia just left a Pantsir SAM on snake island because they can build new better ones asap.

For me, the last pre-escalation hope was that Russia would consider the significant strategic risk of being embarrassed by Ukraine and what that would cost. It seemed like a rational consideration, even if the probability was deemed low. And now maybe they're holding back their best equipment for the same reason. But with hindsight, the only way that makes any sense to me is if they have basically no confidence at all on that equipment. Even if they're really desperate to keep those assets from going up against NATO, what's the difference?

I just don't see the rationale. Most likely they know exactly what paper tigers they have in reserve.

To paraphrase some lost tweet: the only people who overestimate Russia are the ones who don't study Russia. (Obviously us non-experts get to decide for ourselves.)

[ötzi]

There are some Russian military hardware customers who would like to see if their supplier has anything in stock that actually works.

[jono]

There are some Russian military hardware customers who would like to see if their supplier has anything in stock that actually works.

Exactly. And some Russian arms manufacturers who aren't too keen to give demonstrations. That's before we talk strategic deterrent value.

[highangle]

For me, the last pre-escalation hope was that Russia would consider the significant strategic risk of being embarrassed by Ukraine and what that would cost. It seemed like a rational consideration, even if the probability was deemed low. And now maybe they're holding back their best equipment for the same reason. But with hindsight, the only way that makes any sense to me is if they have basically no confidence at all on that equipment. Even if they're really desperate to keep those assets from going up against NATO, what's the difference?

I just don't see the rationale. Most likely they know exactly what paper tigers they have in reserve.

To paraphrase some lost tweet: the only people who overestimate Russia are the ones who don't study Russia. (Obviously us non-experts get to decide for ourselves.)

The biggest problem with Russians is: Get more than 2 of them in a room together, and one of them will start calling himself "General"...


I have a little theory that PootyPoot may have been sucka'd into this Z-invasion by purposely inaccurate intelligence of Ukraine, and of Russian strength. Same way they told him supply trucks were ready to roll and T72 reactive armor will stop a missile...

If you're gonna be an Eye in a Tower [Brain in a Vat], you best have good ways to sense the world around you.

[abraham]

The biggest problem with Russians is: Get more than 2 of them in a room together, and one of them will start calling himself "General"...

Apparently that doesn't extend to Belarusians.
https://youtu.be/1JNtiO7nhmo

[highangle]

Apparently that doesn't extend to Belarusians.
https://youtu.be/1JNtiO7nhmo

Lol notice how if Daddy Poot was there to make Z+2 gopniks, he'd have to be General? qed

[PB]

Apparently that doesn't extend to Belarusians.
https://youtu.be/1JNtiO7nhmo

That was ...... hilarious.
But more importantly, scary as fuck given it was Lukashenko.

[J. Barron DeJong]

I have a little theory that PootyPoot may have been sucka'd into this Z-invasion by purposely inaccurate intelligence of Ukraine, and of Russian strength.

I think that’s probably right. But I don’t think it’s like they we trying to trick him into doing it just in this particular instance. Guys like Putin won’t abide hearing the truth when it doesn’t match what they want to be told, so they’re left surrounded by only those who will tell them what they want to hear.

In this case, Putin wanted to know he could easily win a war against UKR, so that’s what those surrounding him told him would happen.

[XavierD]

Entertain us, and please go into specifics.

Similar to how the United States withheld capabilities in our last two decades experience in the Middle East and Central Asia Adventure Zones, Russia doesn’t need to use everything in Ukraine as neither are fights for survival. Russia is still a country if they lose this war.
Basically they are holding back the capabilities they feel risking would expose them to aggression from NATO or China. Primarily strategic air power as well as the majority of their precision and rapid response artillery. Shit that’s expensive and not easily replaced. . They have made minimal effort to dominate the Ukrainian sky. Most of their fighters and bombers are staying outside of Ukraine. Ukrainian artillery is getting all day to fire and jump. Yes they are still getting hit with counter battery but it’s relatively unresponsive. To me that says they aren’t deploying their doctrinal artillery to ground unit ratios. Even while withholding significant artillery capabilities Russia is still outshooting Ukraine. They just have more.

EW capabilities they don’t want us to sniff and collect intelligence on. Ukraine continues to talk and use radar effectively and accurately. They aren’t getting spoofed of jammed with the effects Russia has previously demonstrated capacity. Once they use these systems in a battle field like Ukraine they become exposed for us to collect on and start developing technological and tactical counter measures. Same with China.

[XavierD]

I have a little theory that PootyPoot may have been sucka'd into this Z-invasion by purposely inaccurate intelligence of Ukraine, and of Russian strength.

We came to the same assessment pre-invasion.

[jono]

Similar to how the United States withheld capabilities in our last two decades experience in the Middle East and Central Asia Adventure Zones, Russia doesn’t need to use everything in Ukraine as neither are fights for survival. Russia is still a country if they lose this war.
Basically they are holding back the capabilities they feel risking would expose them to aggression from NATO or China. Primarily strategic air power as well as the majority of their precision and rapid response artillery. Shit that’s expensive and not easily replaced. . They have made minimal effort to dominate the Ukrainian sky. Most of their fighters and bombers are staying outside of Ukraine. Ukrainian artillery is getting all day to fire and jump. Yes they are still getting hit with counter battery but it’s relatively unresponsive. To me that says they aren’t deploying their doctrinal artillery to ground unit ratios. Even while withholding significant artillery capabilities Russia is still outshooting Ukraine. They just have more.

EW capabilities they don’t want us to sniff and collect intelligence on. Ukraine continues to talk and use radar effectively and accurately. They aren’t getting spoofed of jammed with the effects Russia has previously demonstrated capacity. Once they use these systems in a battle field like Ukraine they become exposed for us to collect on and start developing technological and tactical counter measures. Same with China.

This makes sense WRT whole different weapon systems and anything that represents a huge escalation. But is there anything in that set of tools that has any chance to be deployed in Ukraine? Is there a grey area between what they're willing to sacrifice and either strategic deterrent or just much more expensive weapons that they hope not to use but might decide to in a pinch?

It seems like there's a very different answer to some of this than is imagined by those who think everything we could do leads directly to WWIII.

[rideit]

Thank you, that was illuminating. And a wee bit depressing.

[Cono Este]

Similar to how the United States withheld capabilities in our last two decades experience in the Middle East and Central Asia Adventure Zones, Russia doesn’t need to use everything in Ukraine as neither are fights for survival. Russia is still a country if they lose this war.
Basically they are holding back the capabilities they feel risking would expose them to aggression from NATO or China. Primarily strategic air power as well as the majority of their precision and rapid response artillery. Shit that’s expensive and not easily replaced. . They have made minimal effort to dominate the Ukrainian sky. Most of their fighters and bombers are staying outside of Ukraine. Ukrainian artillery is getting all day to fire and jump. Yes they are still getting hit with counter battery but it’s relatively unresponsive. To me that says they aren’t deploying their doctrinal artillery to ground unit ratios. Even while withholding significant artillery capabilities Russia is still outshooting Ukraine. They just have more.

EW capabilities they don’t want us to sniff and collect intelligence on. Ukraine continues to talk and use radar effectively and accurately. They aren’t getting spoofed of jammed with the effects Russia has previously demonstrated capacity. Once they use these systems in a battle field like Ukraine they become exposed for us to collect on and start developing technological and tactical counter measures. Same with China.

Russia is holding back its Air Force because of all the manpads nato has sent. Same with Javelins. Very effective but as in any war they’ve adapted and changed tactics.


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[dunfree]

EW capabilities they don’t want us to sniff and collect intelligence on. Ukraine continues to talk and use radar effectively and accurately. They aren’t getting spoofed of jammed with the effects Russia has previously demonstrated capacity. Once they use these systems in a battle field like Ukraine they become exposed for us to collect on and start developing technological and tactical counter measures. Same with China.

demonstrably false, with evidence, but you gotta sell your narrative and you ain’t gonna change. Russia has used most of their demonstrated nonnuclear toolbox, but sporadically and thus ineffectively, and the question should be if they even could deploy effectively (do they have these systems en masse with trained personnel?). Anyways, we’re up to over 10% of their modern combat choppers lost so far.