Ukraine

[Meadow Skipper]

I don't hold Elon Musk responsible for foiling Ukraine's first USV raid last year, even though figures such as Elizabeth Warren are demanding some kind of inquiry.

I say that responsibility lies with Ukraine's GUR (the military intelligence service of the Ukrainian government.)

They knew that they were gonna initiating an attack that relied a civilian element. This is something that they have no control over!

But they assessed the risk and went for it. And I don't blame them.

As I understand, actual military communication systems are expensive simply because military customers specify use-cases and demanding certain minimal quality of service.

"Bespoke" systems cost big money.

Even if Musk did shut it down with full knowledge of the consequences, it should have been a recognized hazard of the operation. That is, every operation of this sort has its pitfalls. Ya win some, ya lose some.

Good point about the poor planning on the part of Ukraine, but Musk’s action was world class douchebag.

[MultiVerse]

I think the arrow of time matters. The thwarted drone attack happened a year ago only six months into the war and a month before Elon Musk acquired Twitter. Maybe there were signs before then, but as a general rule an American ally wouldn't expect an American defense contractor to unilaterally disable military equipment during an op.

[Robik]

Close enough

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[J. Barron DeJong]

[mcphee]

Nationalize Starlink and SpaceX!

[LongShortLong]

Interesting series of events on the Crimea front. A few weeks ago, a commando raid to take out a radar station and S400 on a western peninsula. A few days ago, a raid to reclaim oil platforms west of Crimea, also taking control of the radars there. A couple days ago, presumed missile raid on Sevastopol, taking a dry dock out (and sub, and landing ship). Last night, another S400 hit in western Crimea, possibly identified by the Sevastopol raid.

Shields are lowered. If Ukraine has a stack of long range weapons, this looks like preparation to remove a bunch of targets in Crimea. I hope they have something ready. A nice gift for the occupiers.

Minus a dry dock limits options to repair damaged ships. Wiki says there are 3 dry docks, I don't see anyone identifying which was hit. One is much bigger than the other two. Now seems like a good time for more attacks on Crimea targets, or Sevastopol specifically. Damaging or sinking a bunch of missile ships protects both the grain trade and Ukraine generally. Without dry dock repairs, damaged vessels can be finished by the sea. Aside from ships, there ought to be plenty of logistics and supply targets.

[riser4]

Nationalize Starlink and SpaceX!

Ya, I already suggested basically that.

[Viva]

Minus a dry dock limits options to repair damaged ships.

Also, the loss of that transport ship (was it an LST?) will be hudge if the Kerch Bridge is finally destroyed.

The Ukrainians are making it harder to supply Crimea.

[neufox47]

Saw another article on that explaining how those Ropucha class ships are the logistics workhorses of Russias militarily if the rail and roads are taken out. They haul fuel in addition to bulk supplies.


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[The Reverend Floater]

Nationalize Starlink and SpaceX!

As a starlink customer by necessity, no thank you.

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[jono]

Ukraine could make it illegal to supply satellite internet within their borders without respecting all of their borders. The EU, US and others could raise the stakes.

But it would be kind of awesome if they decided to skip the brinksmanship and just use Starlink terminals like a MALD to slip disinfo to Musk and the Russians.

[neufox47]

Yea but Ukraine desperately needs Starlink still. Additionally, this is partially a consequence of Ukraine just getting what was offered/ already built rather than it being procured as a defense contract.

I think Elon was a rube and shouldn’t have shut it off but people aren’t exactly looking at this objectively. What would Ukraine be doing without Starlink? It’s a huge advantage.


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[jono]

Yea but Ukraine desperately needs Starlink still. Additionally, this is partially a consequence of Ukraine just getting what was offered/ already built rather than it being procured as a defense contract.

I think Elon was a rube and shouldn’t have shut it off but people aren’t exactly looking at this objectively. What would Ukraine be doing without Starlink? It’s a huge advantage.

The aforementioned brinksmanship. I don't assume that Starlink would be withdrawn if that law were passed, but it would certainly be safer to start by passing it in the EU and applying it to Ukraine as a candidate for membership. Give Musk the deniability to tell Russia it wasn't his call. Like he tells the free world when he blocks opposition candidates from Twitter in Turkey.

Regardless, they've worked around it at this point and they shouldn't trust him, so hopefully they can put the rube to use.

[ötzi]

I'm not always the biggest Friedman fan but today he's spot on: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/15/o...smid=url-share

[mcphee]

Ya, I already suggested basically that.

Nationalize the entire defense industry too!

[Meconium]

Is this the first time the Boeing B-52H Stratofortress has skirted the black sea recently? (Bulgaria/Romania coastline)

[Meconium]

[Meconium]

[Viva]

Ramzan Kadyrov reportedly is in coma.

If true and if he dies, it may create power vacuum in Chechnya and destabilize the whole Caucuses region. Could be fun to watch, if true.

It also begs the question of whether or not a new leader Chechen leader will ally Putin and offer a continued military assistance.

I'm fairly certain the Russia has a replacement in mind.

But still....

[Harry]

^^ they say his face is puffed up like a balloon about to pop. Guy was an ex-mma fighter, and used to be buff. I wonder what was in his tea.

[LongShortLong]

Is this the first time the Boeing B-52H Stratofortress has skirted the black sea recently? (Bulgaria/Romania coastline)

idk

Russia's been making issues with both countries lately. They've been "accidentally" bombing Romania with precision drones, and recently announced a closure in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea. This on top of Russia's war-making in the region. Any of those could attract a wandering B-52.

Could also be a regular deterrence flight. Similar to those Russia flies that the media occasionally freaks out about.

[Harry]

^^ they say his face is puffed up like a balloon about to pop. Guy was an ex-mma fighter, and used to be buff. I wonder what was in his tea.

Update: turns out his personal physician deliberately poisoned him. His mercenary army captured the physician and buried him alive.

[The Reverend Floater]

Update: turns out his personal physician deliberately poisoned him. His mercenary army captured the physician and buried him alive.

For real? That's pretty wild if so.

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[riser4]

Update: turns out his personal physician deliberately poisoned him. His mercenary army captured the physician and buried him alive.

Fuck. What a way to go. But, you fuck around, you find out. I'm picturing the end of the movie Casino in the corn field.

[jono]

Kadyrov appears to have been poisoned on multiple occasions. A reading of his wikipedia page paints an interesting picture WRT Pootin. Loyal? Probably only if he's paid enough.

A little better picture of the timeline on his doctor (posted 9/10):

"Russian media report that Kadyrov, worried and frightened by a sudden worsening of his health condition, accused his personal doctor, Elkhan Suleimanov, who also served as deputy prime minister, of trying to poison him.

The doctor disappeared without a trace from October 2022, and then, according to several sources, he was removed from all posts, brutally murdered and buried alive.

Suleymanov's last Instagram post is dated October 2022, despite the fact that he used to update his profile almost daily. He was also not seen for a long time either in Moscow educational institutions, which he often visited, or in Chechnya. Noticeably, his Instagram page shows a link to the website of the Chechen Republican Oncological Dispensary, which was his main project. However, the source claims that this site now sells cocaine in Dubai.

Suleymanov was an extraordinary figure in Kadyrov's entourage - he was a Lezgin, not a Chechen, and had an impressive professional record in medicine. His abrupt disappearance and mysterious death raise many questions."

https://nitter.net/Gerashchenko_en/s...658791805058#m