Ukraine

[J. Barron DeJong]

So; if China decides to start taking pieces of Russia, whose side would we be on?

Not our war. Sit back and enjoy the show?

[XXX-er]

China annexing Russia probably wouldn't get much push back from USA, also it would be smarter and more lucrative resource wise than China messing with Taiwan

[Toadman]

So; if China decides to start taking pieces of Russia, whose side would we be on?

Just hope for a close and competitive match that goes into quadruple OT.

[dunfree]

So; if China decides to start taking pieces of Russia, whose side would we be on?

Russia has seized the most”Chinese” territory of anyone

[summit]

Not our war. Sit back and enjoy the show?

It will be a show... with fireworks... of the nuclear variety...

The US would do everything to promote peace and avoid expansionist warfare.

[J. Barron DeJong]

It will be a show... with fireworks... of the nuclear variety...

The US would do everything to promote peace and avoid expansionist warfare.

Maybe, but what would that entail?

I can believe the US would try to apply as much diplomatic pressure, economic pressure, etc. as possible, and get our allies to as well, but if it actually came to blows between Russia and China, what then?

[Cisco Kid]

Putin is looking for back up and putting The Allies in the crosshairs.

" Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s attempts to promote a potential anti-Western coalition. The new Foreign Policy Concept paints the West as an anti-Russian and internationally destabilizing force"

[summit]

Maybe, but what would that entail?

I can believe the US would try to apply as much diplomatic pressure, economic pressure, etc. as possible, and get our allies to as well, but if it actually came to blows between Russia and China, what then?

Things get VERY dicey. If they uncork the bottled sunshine, which is likely in an existentially threatening invasion, it will likely start with tactical use but unless that causes withdrawal things will go strategic. At or before the first nudet, we'll be escalating our force readiness while we use soft power to quell the conflict.

In a significant strategic nuclear exchange between PRC and Russia, there is a worry by PRC and Russia that either could be struck by other adversarial parties as they look to fully finish a wounded threat. We don't know what the Chinese and Russian equivalents to the US OPLAN Major Attack Options look like. Likely they are laid out beforehand as are ours. We do know that Russia is primarily counterforce with a building countervalue option and China has been historically countervalue but is currently building nukes like crazy for a counterforce strategy.

Why not rely on deterrence to trust the US stays out while they kill each other? Well, in the Chinese and Russian minds in our hypothetical, not only did deterrence just fail massively, but at the same time they will lose early warning and perhaps even the capability to determine who is attacking after detonation. Another problem is China and Russia have most of their strategic deterrent in land based missiles which are not resilient second strike weapons. Even if they could continue to see who is creating miniature suns over their country and see that it isn't the US, UK, India, or Pakistan, they could quickly progress into a use-or-lose situation for most of of their deterrent force.

On the other hand, an unprovoked strike against the US would result in the obliteration what remains of the aggressor's forces and perhaps country.

Assuming they do not strike us out of fear, confusion, spite, or an automated retaliation system:

Transpacific fallout is of some concern, but not end of the world type stuff. It would be bad for Japan, SE Asia, Korea, India, Taiwan, Mongolia and the breadbasket of SE Europe.

The US would suffer badly economically. Instantly $600 billion dollars of US trade (2.5% of GDP) just stops, just with China alone, with many critical supply chains grinding to a halt with huge downstream effects compounded by fear, panic and hoarding.

The surviving Chinese will suffer a famine not seen in recorded history as they import 70% of their food, which just stops as they won't have any way to pay a world, worried about feeding itself, to send supply ships into an irradiated war zone with missiles and torpedoes flying around, not that China would have functioning ports left to offload. Russia provides 13% of world grain, which will grind to a halt as they struggle to feed survivors. Maybe these will balance for the rest of the world... as may the stoppage of Russia energy exports be offset the Chinese 70% crude import dependency just stopping.

If we don't get nuked while Russia and China obliterate each other, then 15 years later things might look good for us and the world outside of the war zones which might have a combined population not much larger than the US. The unfathomable suffering to reach that point would be impossible to tally. And who can say what would actually follow such cataclysm in the free world.

I prefer a future without a billion+ deaths, one where wars between major powers are deterred and democracy prevails over totalitarianism due to natural collapsing of oppressive regimes.

[Casey E]

For more doomsday reporting, here is good weekly podcast by Arkady Ostrovsky, the Economist Russia correspondent.

https://spotify.link/8eEOINV0Dyb

Interviews with a variety of Russian exiles around the world, great historical perspectives, personal experiences with Putin and his regime, and the actions some are taking to counter the propaganda and “make a difference” in their small ways. 8 parts, now in episode 5. Keep the Kleenex handy.

[Mani_UT]

It will be a show... with fireworks... of the nuclear variety...

The US would do everything to promote peace and avoid expansionist warfare.

But since we already went back to expansionist warfare with Ukraine, we might as well go ahead and start trading territories like in the good old days. Russia could sell the entire East to various nations for good money There is no one living there they care about anyway.

[schuss]

Ukraine is an explicit pushback on expansionism. If China plays it right and agrees to nuke treaties/safe harbor for civilians, a lot of cover for "lesser of two evils" and staying out of it for the US. Really depends how badly Xi slaps his dick on the table.

[rod9301]

I am amazed at how many of you want the war to go on until Ukrainian victory.
What does victory mean anyway?

A country totally devastated? An entire generation of young men dead?

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[summit]

Victory means the invader is expelled and the people are free. Pretty simple concept for Americans historically...

[ex-powderbroker]

i had a meal with a romanian friend last week that told me a story about how her parents taught her to always make the doctors and nurses open a brand new needle for her shots growing up. apparently it was common for all of the kids in the class to get jabbed by the same one, one after another. obviously there are a lot of stupid germs that went around but is that the future you want for ukrainian kids as a ugly step kid of the russian empire again? or should they be allowed to pursue their own destiny?

i’d rather have a few less poor kids sharing needles but that’s me.

enjoy your krokodil, rod.

[Bunion 2020]

I am amazed at how many of you want the war to go on until Ukrainian victory.
What does victory mean anyway?

A country totally devastated? An entire generation of young men dead?

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You git, it doesn't matter what you or I want. 100% up to the people of Ukraine. Course you would be 100% for cutting off all aid in the name of Peace.

[XXX-er]

I am amazed at how many of you want the war to go on until Ukrainian victory.
What does victory mean anyway?

A country totally devastated? An entire generation of young men dead?

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the Ukranians can give in any time they want but they choose to fight, Putin is a dumb ass so some one in Yurp was going to have to fight him any way and since he has already invaded the Ukraine its best to just stay out of their war and keep giving them money & weapons to protect themselves

I think the ukranians will try their best to kick Putin out

[highangle]

I am amazed at how many of you want the war to go on until Ukrainian victory.

Why wouldn't I?

[rod9301]

I just think it's a shame to destroy the country and kill so many people for what?

There's no way Ukraine will get Crimea back, and Putin will probably keep Donbass.

Of course Russia shouldn't have invaded Ukraine, but they did.

And it doesn't look like either country will WIN. But Russia had more people by far, and it's ruled by a dictator who pretty much does what he wants. Bad combination.

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[highangle]

the Ukranians can give in any time they want but they choose to fight, Putin is a dumb ass so some one in Yurp was going to have to fight him any way and since he has already invaded the Ukraine its best to just stay out of their war and keep giving them money & weapons to protect themselves

I think the ukranians will try their best to kick Putin out

freedom isn't free, but imperial authoritarianism is a lot more expensive than anybody thought

[twat]

I am amazed at how many of you want the war to go on until Ukrainian victory.
What does victory mean anyway?

A country totally devastated? An entire generation of young men dead?

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Russia understands only one language.

[Bunion 2020]

freedom isn't free, but imperial authoritarianism is a lot more expensive than anybody thought

Rod doesn't think long term.

[highangle]

I just think it's a shame to destroy the country and kill so many people for what?

You should be taking your concerns up with your Dark Lord, as it was he who invaded sovereign Ukraine on pretexts.

But you are afraid.

Sad.

[grinch]

Comrod always with vlads current talking points from day 1 of the invasion. Continually wrong in his forecasts but still gargling pooties nutsack. I cant wait for the counter offensive. Ukes are going to smash those war criminals

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[Cono Este]

A country totally devastated? An entire generation of young men dead?

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Too late, it’s already destroyed. Weve given just enough to grind down the ruskies for us but not enough for Ukraine to win and put us at risk of a wider conflict. Expertly played douche in chief.

Can I get an update on the M1a’s? press # to hold.

[XXX-er]

freedom isn't free, but imperial authoritarianism is a lot more expensive than anybody thought

yup the Ruskies had to pull out of Afghanistan so why not the Ukraine ?

Russia had it pretty good but now they are persona non-grata every where in the western world abd this is costing them money & manpower, a Russian buddy told me his mom got his draft notice but he is not going home

and if believe the artical I linked their real probelm is China who has lots of money cuz they havent got into the expensive wars