Ukraine

[leroy jenkins]

Putin could stop today and effectively claim “mission accomplished “, with a little help from his propaganda apparatus. He has defeated the Azov kNazis, he has created direct land access to Russia’s most important sea base, and he has gotten the water flowing to Crimea. These seem like good reasons to rest on one’s laurels with May Day coming up.

Not to mention getting his hands on javelins and examples of a bunch of other US arms to study, which I'm sure will be shared with China.

Doesn't seem like any other countries have been pushed into joining NATO over this.

The biggest loss for Putin, is morale and will to fight in the armed forces. The actual human losses are significant but in a mostly conscript army morale is important long term, as conscripts can be replaced, but low morale will make it harder to replace the professional soldiers long term. In terms of equipment, I think the warships planes and helicopters are all significant loses, but I think most of the tanks were old junk anyways. Debatably, using up old tanks disposably makes more sense than spending money to store retire or upgrade them.

I still can't figure this whole war out, and get the feeling there is a lot more going on than we realize. I think that just like the Iraq war, huge amounts of our aid is going to wind up in the wrong hands. In Iraq the money for small business loans we sent largely went into the pockets of corrupt locals, while the aid in Ukraine is mostly in the form of arms, I still think a lot of it is probably disappearing.

Sometimes its hard to tell the difference between ineptness and cunning and I'm still wondering about Putin. Then again, he probably isn't sure of the difference either.

I do think China is stoked to get some javelins to look at tho.

[summit]

^^ Man, the more things change... a brief of Eastern Europe's VE Day May 8, 1945:

Attachment 415697

Step 3 is also what was happening before Step 1

[rod9301]

Not to mention getting his hands on javelins and examples of a bunch of other US arms to study, which I'm sure will be shared with China.

Doesn't seem like any other countries have been pushed into joining NATO over this.

The biggest loss for Putin, is morale and will to fight in the armed forces. The actual human losses are significant but in a mostly conscript army morale is important long term, as conscripts can be replaced, but low morale will make it harder to replace the professional soldiers long term. In terms of equipment, I think the warships planes and helicopters are all significant loses, but I think most of the tanks were old junk anyways. Debatably, using up old tanks disposably makes more sense than spending money to store retire or upgrade them.

I still can't figure this whole war out, and get the feeling there is a lot more going on than we realize. I think that just like the Iraq war, huge amounts of our aid is going to wind up in the wrong hands. In Iraq the money for small business loans we sent largely went into the pockets of corrupt locals, while the aid in Ukraine is mostly in the form of arms, I still think a lot of it is probably disappearing.

Sometimes its hard to tell the difference between ineptness and cunning and I'm still wondering about Putin. Then again, he probably isn't sure of the difference either.

I do think China is stoked to get some javelins to look at tho.

No, are you implying there was corruption in Iraq? Or Ukraine?

Hard to believe.

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

[leroy jenkins]

No, are you implying there was corruption in Iraq? Or Ukraine?

Hard to believe.

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

The part that is hard to believe is were the US leaders really so stupid as to not see it in Iraq, or were they corrupt too? Perhaps a bit of both but I can't beleive only the former. Same with this war.

[MultiVerse]

Not to mention getting his hands on javelins and examples of a bunch of other US arms to study, which I'm sure will be shared with China.

Doesn't seem like any other countries have been pushed into joining NATO over this.

The biggest loss for Putin, is morale and will to fight in the armed forces. The actual human losses are significant but in a mostly conscript army morale is important long term, as conscripts can be replaced, but low morale will make it harder to replace the professional soldiers long term. In terms of equipment, I think the warships planes and helicopters are all significant loses, but I think most of the tanks were old junk anyways. Debatably, using up old tanks disposably makes more sense than spending money to store retire or upgrade them.

I still can't figure this whole war out, and get the feeling there is a lot more going on than we realize. I think that just like the Iraq war, huge amounts of our aid is going to wind up in the wrong hands. In Iraq the money for small business loans we sent largely went into the pockets of corrupt locals, while the aid in Ukraine is mostly in the form of arms, I still think a lot of it is probably disappearing.

Sometimes its hard to tell the difference between ineptness and cunning and I'm still wondering about Putin. Then again, he probably isn't sure of the difference either.

I do think China is stoked to get some javelins to look at tho.

-- You're wrong to automatically assume Russia and China don't already have their own knockoff versions of the javelin, because they do. The fact is Ukraine mostly fights with older Cold War era versions of Russia's current weapons. They're working just fine for Ukraine. Russian incompetence at the individual, unit, and leadership level is their main problem.

-- Finland and Sweden are joining NATO "over this."

-- Russia is committing its most advanced equipment including T90s and SU-35s

-- As far figuring it out: Russia wants the power to threaten others unilaterally. It's strange that so many people in the West still struggle to grasp the threat of Russia's autocratic imperialism.

[neufox47]

Not to mention getting his hands on javelins and examples of a bunch of other US arms to study, which I'm sure will be shared with China.

Doesn't seem like any other countries have been pushed into joining NATO over this.

The biggest loss for Putin, is morale and will to fight in the armed forces. The actual human losses are significant but in a mostly conscript army morale is important long term, as conscripts can be replaced, but low morale will make it harder to replace the professional soldiers long term. In terms of equipment, I think the warships planes and helicopters are all significant loses, but I think most of the tanks were old junk anyways. Debatably, using up old tanks disposably makes more sense than spending money to store retire or upgrade them.

I still can't figure this whole war out, and get the feeling there is a lot more going on than we realize. I think that just like the Iraq war, huge amounts of our aid is going to wind up in the wrong hands. In Iraq the money for small business loans we sent largely went into the pockets of corrupt locals, while the aid in Ukraine is mostly in the form of arms, I still think a lot of it is probably disappearing.

Sometimes its hard to tell the difference between ineptness and cunning and I'm still wondering about Putin. Then again, he probably isn't sure of the difference either.

I do think China is stoked to get some javelins to look at tho.

Leroy, so confident in his ignorance.

No other countries have been pushed into joining NATO?

Desperately searching for a hidden agenda for the west.

Accusing Ukraine of selling weapons (without any evidence) when they are in a fight for their existence.

[frorider]

I read Leroy’s posts in the voice of this guy:



It’s hard to parse his confident blatherings but I think he was trying to say countries other than Finland and Sweden.

[leroy jenkins]

-- You're wrong to automatically assume Russia and China don't already have their own knockoff versions of the javelin, because they do. The fact is Ukraine mostly fights with older Cold War era versions of Russia's current weapons. They're working just fine for Ukraine. Russian incompetence at the individual, unit, and leadership level is their main problem.

-- Finland and Sweden are joining NATO "over this."

-- Russia is committing its most advanced equipment including T90s and SU-35s

-- As far figuring it out: Russia wants the power to threaten others unilaterally. It's strange that so many people in the West still struggle to grasp the threat of Russia's autocratic imperialism.

China absolutely wants to look at our tech instead of just their knockoffs. I don't think theyv'e gotten their hands on javelins before, and they love copying our tech. You are very wrong to assume otherwise.

I think theres more to figure out than what you're saying but good talk. Us going into Iraq was about a lot more than 911. In fact, it wasn't even about 911.

Also, I've read people other than sweden and finland saying they should join NATO over this, but have yet to hear they are, regardless I don't think the reductionist approach to understanding it is applicable. This is about the ruble and the dollar, and who knows to what degree china actually has been privately in support of this, or whether their public statements against it represent what they say to Putin in private.

[leroy jenkins]

Leroy, so confident in his ignorance.

No other countries have been pushed into joining NATO?

Desperately searching for a hidden agenda for the west.

Accusing Ukraine of selling weapons (without any evidence) when they are in a fight for their existence.

Hmm, I thought the tone of my post was more openminded musings rather than confidence in asserting much?

Yes yes, starting sentences with "I still can't figure this out but get a feeling" is super arrogant and sure of things.

A hidden agenda for "The West"? Like the whole monolithic West? There are always layers. It seems like the implication of your post is anyone who questions at all is unpatriotic and a Putin supporter bla bla bla. There are always hidden agendas. If anything my post was more wondering about the hidden agendas of all sides and associated parties. I get it though, no questions!

I'm not sure why I even come back to this place. Some sort of habit from days gone by I guess.


When did I say anything about them selling weapons? Russia has captured javelins. Besides its pretty much a given some of these arms will wind up in places we least expect.

[dunfree]

China absolutely wants to look at our tech instead of just their knockoffs. I don't think theyv'e gotten their hands on javelins before, and they love copying our tech. You are very wrong to assume otherwise.

if they wanted to get their hands on a javelin they almost certainly have by now. They may well have looked at it before they introduced their own fire and forget antitank missile the hj-12 back in 2014. Actual production capability and capacity matters as much or more than specifications.

[leroy jenkins]

if they wanted to get their hands on a javelin they almost certainly have by now. They may well have looked at it before they introduced their own fire and forget antitank missile the hj-12 back in 2014. Actual production capability and capacity matters as much or more than specifications.

When and where would they have gotten one before? I will happily admit my ignorance, but I can't think of anywhere.

And yea actually the specifications do matter.

[ex-powderbroker]

javelins were in circulation all over the middle east since they have been in production since 96. when arms or planes have been captured in the past there has been a pipeline through the taliban or iran to beijing. assuming that the chinese don’t have a design of a weapon that was invented in 1989 sounds foolish.

[ötzi]

If China wanted Javelins they could have them in a week.

[leroy jenkins]

javelins were in circulation all over the middle east since they have been in production since 96. when arms or planes have been captured in the past there has been a pipeline through the taliban or iran to beijing. assuming that the chinese don’t have a design of a weapon that was invented in 1989 sounds foolish.

Any specific examples of them being captured? I've never heard of any, but again, there is much we are all ignorant about.

[dunfree]

When and where would they have gotten one before? I will happily admit my ignorance, but I can't think of anywhere.

And yea actually the specifications do matter.

the Soviet k-13 missile was a reverse engineered copy of the AIM-9 sidewinder. In 1958 during the Taiwan straights crisis a Sidewinder was fired at a PRC MIG-17, ended up lodged in the MIG without exploding. The PRC then gave the missile to the USSR who then took it apart. Do you think that could happen with a Javelin? Nothings perfect.

Besides, the PRC has been spying on the defense industry for two decades +

[leroy jenkins]

the Soviet k-13 missile was a reverse engineered copy of the AIM-9 sidewinder. In 1958 during the Taiwan straights crisis a Sidewinder was fired at a PRC MIG-17, ended up lodged in the MIG without exploding. The PRC then gave the missile to the USSR who then took it apart. Do you think that could happen with a Javelin? Nothings perfect.

Besides, the PRC has been spying on the defense industry for two decades +

Yea shit like that could. Russia has captured some.

I'm just not aware of anything like that happening previously with Javelins, and a bunch of others stuff we're sending too. Like the laser guided 70mm rockets etc etc etc.

I know we used Javelins as man portable bunker busters if Afghanistan, but I know they weren't among the stuff we left behind as gifts for the Taliban.

Again, not making assumptions, but I'm unaware of these falling into Chinese hands previously, and would be curious to hear examples.

You're right, they might have just hacked the blueprints previously.

[abraham]

Ever wonder why the J-31 looks familiar?
"Last year the U.S. State Department announced that it had concluded a $13 million administrative settlement with Honeywell International Inc. following allegations that the American defense contractor had illegally exported technical drawings of parts for multiple aircraft including Lockheed Martin’s F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II jet fighters. According to the complaint, company officials sent multiple engineering and technical documents to China over a multi-year period."

[dunfree]

Ever wonder why the J-31 looks familiar?
"Last year the U.S. State Department announced that it had concluded a $13 million administrative settlement with Honeywell International Inc. following allegations that the American defense contractor had illegally exported technical drawings of parts for multiple aircraft including Lockheed Martin’s F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II jet fighters. According to the complaint, company officials sent multiple engineering and technical documents to China over a multi-year period."

Depending the parts they could just steal the drawings from suppliers with poor it practices. LM claim 1,650 “high-tech suppliers” alone, and 1,000 small businesses

[leroy jenkins]

Ever wonder why the J-31 looks familiar?
"Last year the U.S. State Department announced that it had concluded a $13 million administrative settlement with Honeywell International Inc. following allegations that the American defense contractor had illegally exported technical drawings of parts for multiple aircraft including Lockheed Martin’s F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II jet fighters. According to the complaint, company officials sent multiple engineering and technical documents to China over a multi-year period."

Holy fuck I hadn't heard of that. So much to keep up with in the world these days.

Did you hear about all the huge Chinese hacks of a lot of our defense stuff a couple years back?

[summit]

31 July 1914



1 August 1914





7 May 2022

Russian experts argue that mobilization won't accomplish much: https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...36461595242498

8 May 2022

Reports of limited Russia mobilization with Russian's posting their mobilization notices on twatter.

9 May 2022

Victory Day

-

Well, it isn't 1914 and things don't work like they did then, but Russia does have a colossal reserve, 2 million men.

[dunfree]

400k armed conscripts in Petrograd worked out well for the Tsar, right? Right?!

Madness

[summit]

400k armed conscripts in Petrograd worked out well for the Tsar, right? Right?!

Madness

Combined with Ludendorff fucking the entire world over by sending Lenin & Pals (hithertoo prisoners) on a sealed train to Petrograd in order to "undermine the enemy." The Germans would rather forget about that little oopsie.

[LongShortLong]

Holy fuck I hadn't heard of that. So much to keep up with in the world these days.

Did you hear about all the huge Chinese hacks of a lot of our defense stuff a couple years back?

About a dozen years? About when Google left China? When Google notified dozens of companies China was in their IT systems? None of those companies said squat about it and kept investing in China? Shortly before Benny's favorite politician started badmouthing China? About when former Google President became her advisor?

I've heard nothing.

[leroy jenkins]

About a dozen years? About when Google left China? When Google notified dozens of companies China was in their IT systems? None of those companies said squat about it and kept investing in China? Shortly before Benny's favorite politician started badmouthing China? About when former Google President became her advisor?

I've heard nothing.

No I mean when our DOD servers got hacked a couple years back.

[LongShortLong]

The part that is hard to believe is were the US leaders really so stupid as to not see it in Iraq, or were they corrupt too? Perhaps a bit of both but I can't beleive only the former. Same with this war.

US leaders respond to voters. The American people voted strongly for the guy who lied about and started the Iraq mess. So, call it what you want, but it's a feature of our system. Now, Russians don't exactly vote, but rumor has it there is similar support for their lying leader who started the Ukraine mess. I hope they can get out faster than we did.