Ukraine

[MultiVerse]

It seems that sanctions against Russia do not work so well.

Before anyone gets upset, this is simply a réflection on the idiotic us and Europe sanctions, not justification for the Russian invasion.

A person can't have it both ways. The main thing a person should understand about Russian sanctions is both the energy weapon and nuclear threats failed to deter the West. Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine means an end to integrating the Russian Federation with the collective West.

Not only the U.S., Great Britain, Poland, and the Baltics, but also Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and Spain took on a sharply anti-Russian position. For the first time in Russian history, Russia doesn't have any allies in the West.

Despite Putin's warnings about the gravest consequences for Western countries if they decided to intervene in the Ukrainian conflict, those threats didn’t prevent the active and effective participation of the US and NATO member-states from arming the Ukrainian army.

Even though Western countries failed to achieve the worldwide political isolation of Russia, they were able to deploy international institutions to their advantage. In addition to having control of the apparatuses of these institutions, the West succeeded in obtaining a majority of votes in support of anti-Russian resolutions.

As a result, most of Russia’s direct economic ties with the West have been eliminated. The geo-economic model that Moscow was pursuing since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the transition to market relations was seriously damaged in its most important segment, i.e., relations with the West (Russia’s main trade, investment and technological partner). The image of Russia as a very reliable energy supplier to the EU is gone. The Russo-German partnership is broken.

Despite the fact Russia's economy is forecast to grow 0.3%, this is a path to Russian national catastrophe, probable chaos, and an eventual loss of sovereignty.

[rod9301]

A person can't have it both ways. The main thing a person should understand about Russian sanctions is both the energy weapon and nuclear threats failed to deter the West. Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine means an end to integrating the Russian Federation with the collective West.

Not only the U.S., Great Britain, Poland, and the Baltics, but also Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and Spain took on a sharply anti-Russian position. For the first time in Russian history, Russia doesn't have any allies in the West.

Despite Putin's warnings about the gravest consequences for Western countries if they decided to intervene in the Ukrainian conflict, those threats didn’t prevent the active and effective participation of the US and NATO member-states from arming the Ukrainian army.

Even though Western countries failed to achieve the worldwide political isolation of Russia, they were able to deploy international institutions to their advantage. In addition to having control of the apparatuses of these institutions, the West succeeded in obtaining a majority of votes in support of anti-Russian resolutions.

As a result, most of Russia’s direct economic ties with the West have been eliminated. The geo-economic model that Moscow was pursuing since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the transition to market relations was seriously damaged in its most important segment, i.e., relations with the West (Russia’s main trade, investment and technological partner). The image of Russia as a very reliable energy supplier to the EU is gone. The Russo-German partnership is broken.

Despite the fact Russia's economy is forecast to grow 0.3%, this is a path to Russian national catastrophe, probable chaos, and an eventual loss of sovereignty.

Could be, all i was saying though that sanctions do not work. And they are hurting western Europe more than Russia.

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[Cisco Kid]

Nice opinion. How many more times are you post it?

[MultiVerse]

Sanctions do work and basic math shows they are hurting Russia more than they are hurting Europe.

According to Rod's own source Russia's GDP growth forecast is only 0.3% versus 2-to-3% prior to sanctions being put in place. That might not seem like much of a difference but in reality it's enormous—an order of magnitude:

At 3% Russia's economy would double every 23 years. At 0.3% Russia's economy would double only every 231 years.

The combination of a declining population and 0.3% growth is not sustainable and Russia will either have to change course or accept a permanent decline in a single generation. Unless they turn things around and learn to trade with the West instead of making war with the West, they're done.

[schuss]

Could be, all i was saying though that sanctions do not work. And they are hurting western Europe more than Russia.

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[citation needed]

[twat]

Russia lost 100.000 soldiers the last 3 month. Arms delivery works well.

[uglymoney]

Here is a good article that covers for Biden by shifting the blame to the Defense Secretary the Secretary of State. Biden can’t be responsible for WW 3.0, the people under him are at fault.


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna67508

JFC.

What???

SMFH

To me this just says Dark Brandon is running the show like a godamned boss and you are losing your shit over it.

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[basinbeater]

^^^ that is my take as well. Biden is leading the us decision making based on real world needs on the ground and international politics. His team is providing good information and decisions are not being made in a vacuum.

[twat]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...revenue-2023-2

Russia is increasing sales of its foreign exchange reserves to plug a hole in its budget as energy revenues crash.

The finance ministry said Friday that it will sell 160.2 billion rubles ($2.3 billion) worth of foreign currency from February 7 to March 6. That's nearly triple the 54.5 billion rubles worth of forex sold last month.

[riser4]

JFC.

What???

SMFH

To me this just says Dark Brandon is running the show like a godamned boss and you are losing your shit over it.

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Sith Lord Brandon.

[rideit]

Sanctions are just one tool in the toolbox.
Are you really just proposing we give nukes back to Ukraine?

[LHutz Esq]

Could be, all i was saying though that sanctions do not work. And they are hurting western Europe more than Russia.

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The Eurozone is projected to have over twice Russia's GDP growth in 2023

Not to mention that instead of guessing by using forecasted numbers we can look at what actually happened in 2022. Russia's GDP fell 2.2% in 2022 while the Eurozone grew 3.5%. Germany - probably the G7 economy most closely tied to Russia grew 1.9%.

Using GDP growth to state that sanctions are hurting Europe more than Russia is just wrong.

You're wrong Rod.

I was going to put in a citation - but seeing as Rod doesn't need those I don't think I do either - I say that the sanctions are hurting Russia more than they are hurting Europe and using RodLogic my say so should be good enough!

[grinch]

That should clear things up. Copy/paste it when comrod returns in a couple weeks to repeat his statement

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[LHutz Esq]

Further, to say because Russia is now importing more from Turkey, China Azerbaijan, etc. than it was before means that the sanctions are hurting Europe vs Russia is also wrong.

Pre-invasion Russia could trade with anyone in the world, including Turkey, China and Azerbaijan etc.. Now it can trade with Turkey, China and Azerbaijan etc. This benefits Russia how? Having many, many fewer trading partners for the same goods (now marked up through middlemen and being trucked in vs. shipped) means that sanctions are not hurting Russia how? In Rod world does allowing Turkey, China and Azerbaijan reach into your shorts and get a good grip on your short and curlies constitute "not harming your economy". When China or India decides that they want to pay less for your exports (they already have) and you need to pay more for their exports - where does Russia go? I hear North Korea makes some nice Motorola StarTac flip phone knock offs.

On the other side the Eurozone lost exactly one trading partner and in many cases were able to diversify their suppliers to far more stable, less invady nations. And yes I am ignoring Belarus 'cause they are Belarus. Not to mention the hard kick in the ass towards renewables which will improve Europe's future economic prospects.

You're wrong Rod.

All Russia has done is set its self on a course for the North Koreanisation of its economy.

* source "Fuck You Tankie" Why am I Engaging This Douchecanoe Reports, 2023

[Casey E]

Hear, hear!

[ötzi]

Come on now, I'm sure the Turks and Azerbaijanis are being very fair with their pricing and terms.

[frorider]

Actually it gets better. the new price cap of $60 for Russian oil is being enforced by virtue of a shipping (and insurance) structure that the West controls. So India etc don’t even have to negotiate the low Russian price.

[Bunion 2020]

You-Tube videos of M1A2s being unloaded in Europe and Bradley's being trucked on UKR highway system. That didn't take long.

[Adolf Allerbush]

Further, to say because Russia is now importing more from Turkey, China Azerbaijan, etc. than it was before means that the sanctions are hurting Europe vs Russia is also wrong.

Pre-invasion Russia could trade with anyone in the world, including Turkey, China and Azerbaijan etc.. Now it can trade with Turkey, China and Azerbaijan etc. This benefits Russia how? Having many, many fewer trading partners for the same goods (now marked up through middlemen and being trucked in vs. shipped) means that sanctions are not hurting Russia how? In Rod world does allowing Turkey, China and Azerbaijan reach into your shorts and get a good grip on your short and curlies constitute "not harming your economy". When China or India decides that they want to pay less for your exports (they already have) and you need to pay more for their exports - where does Russia go? I hear North Korea makes some nice Motorola StarTac flip phone knock offs.

On the other side the Eurozone lost exactly one trading partner and in many cases were able to diversify their suppliers to far more stable, less invady nations. And yes I am ignoring Belarus 'cause they are Belarus. Not to mention the hard kick in the ass towards renewables which will improve Europe's future economic prospects.

You're wrong Rod.

All Russia has done is set its self on a course for the North Koreanisation of its economy.

* source "Fuck You Tankie" Why am I Engaging This Douchecanoe Reports, 2023

I only hope we can once again ride motorcycles through eastern Europe on the long way round circuit.

[rod9301]

You can compare Russia with uk it Germany

Uk, developed country, Russia, barely out of third world.

But, two examples

Legal and accounting firms, like e&y left Russia. All the Russian professionals that worked there have either joined other firms it started their own. Russian companies are now getting audits from Russian accounting firms. The only difference is that western accounting firms have lost revenue.

Same with mc Donald's, Starbucks, etc.

Russia is still selling oil, to India and china now, and lng, even though smaller volumes.
Europe is buying lng from us and other countries, paying significantly more then they were paying gazprom. India is reselling Russian oil to Europe, so Europe is paying a lot more for oil.

So the oil and gas gets shipped around the world a lot more, which increases costs.

All I'm saying is that the sanctions were not well thought out, which should not be a surprise, given that politicians designed them.

And i read articles where Russia is able to buy military grade components thru other countries, probably turkey and who knows else.

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[schuss]

You can compare Russia with uk it Germany

Uk, developed country, Russia, barely out of third world.

But, two examples

Legal and accounting firms, like e&y left Russia. All the Russian professionals that worked there have either joined other firms it started their own. Russian companies are now getting audits from Russian accounting firms. The only difference is that western accounting firms have lost revenue.

Same with mc Donald's, Starbucks, etc.

Russia is still selling oil, to India and china now, and lng, even though smaller volumes.
Europe is buying lng from us and other countries, paying significantly more then they were paying gazprom. India is reselling Russian oil to Europe, so Europe is paying a lot more for oil.

So the oil and gas gets shipped around the world a lot more, which increases costs.

All I'm saying is that the sanctions were not well thought out, which should not be a surprise, given that politicians designed them.

And i read articles where Russia is able to buy military grade components thru other countries, probably turkey and who knows else.

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So all they've lost are their major customers (oil), connection and training at a global scale (global/multinationals pulling out) and outside investment from western companies (mcdonalds etc.). Yeah, no effect at all. I'm sure their massive foreign currency reserve sale was just regular business as well.

As far as oil - https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
We're below pre-invasion prices, so your "oil is more expensive" line is wholly false.

[ex-powderbroker]

with friends like these…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...ine-territory/

[jono]

"I read articles where" = "zerohedge/greyzone/RT says"

The world pays pre-invasion oil prices, but Russia gets <$60 and their exports are down. They're all-in on the idea they can wait out the west so they're spending all their reserves to do it. They're lucky the one thing they can buy at a discount is tankies.

[LHutz Esq]

You can compare Russia with uk it Germany

Uk, developed country, Russia, barely out of third world.

But, two examples

Legal and accounting firms, like e&y left Russia. All the Russian professionals that worked there have either joined other firms it started their own. Russian companies are now getting audits from Russian accounting firms. The only difference is that western accounting firms have lost revenue.

Same with mc Donald's, Starbucks, etc.

Russia is still selling oil, to India and china now, and lng, even though smaller volumes.
Europe is buying lng from us and other countries, paying significantly more then they were paying gazprom. India is reselling Russian oil to Europe, so Europe is paying a lot more for oil.

So the oil and gas gets shipped around the world a lot more, which increases costs.

All I'm saying is that the sanctions were not well thought out, which should not be a surprise, given that politicians designed them.

And i read articles where Russia is able to buy military grade components thru other countries, probably turkey and who knows else.

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You did that Rod - do you even read what you wrote? you compared Western Europe - which sure as shit includes Za Chermans with Russia. Their vastly different economies is one of the reasons sanctions can have an affect

None of that (even if it is true)means “sanctions are hurting Western Europe more than they are hurting Russia” or that sanctions “don’t work”

Now you move the posts to they “aren’t well thought out” - it isn’t rocket surgery here bud. Russia fucks around and ignores the basic rule of law - the world minus a few outliers won’t deal with Russia and Russia can’t be a part of the institutions that rely on the rule of law to function

That Russia tries to work around its pariah status doesn’t change the fact that those that can’t play by the rules can’t play. What did you expect? Them to just roll over in a year?

Hey guys Rod says we tried that thing for a year and Russia didn’t stop being a rogue state run by a psychotic dictator yet - we should stop now!

You’re wrong Rod.

[frorider]

Pretty amusing Rod points to the Russian replacements for Ernst & Young as being particularly significant or a surprise. There’s an irony in someone with Rod’s level of childlike naïveté accusing the sanctions organizers of not thinking things through.

The problems span everything from the airline industry to consumer electronics, leading former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to call for a nationalization of foreign assets.

Yevgeny Popov, a well-known journalist and member of the Russian parliament, ripped into Medvedev's idea in a rare moment of open criticism.

"What will we drive, we have nothing to drive. Are we going to drive railcars?" Popov yelled at a former Russian general who supported the idea of nationalization on the state TV talk show "60 Minutes."

"Let's nationalize everything, but what will we drive, how will we make phone calls, what will we do? Yes, all our technology is Western," Popov said.

It’s not like Russia will create an in house semi conductor industry. And the limitations on access to foreign reserves will eventually lead to Russian defaults.

The real news bullet points from the misguided invasion is that they fucked up the 3 day invasion of Kyiv, underestimated the breadth of Western sanctions support, and didn’t foresee the depth of actions against their financial system.

Scholars and lawyers who follow this stuff are actually nervous about the precedents that have now been set in these areas. Arguably undermining the sovereignty of the Russian state.