Page 359 of 408 FirstFirst ... 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 ... LastLast
Results 8,951 to 8,975 of 10193

Thread: Ukraine

  1. #8951
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    32,963
    Quote Originally Posted by ex-powderbroker View Post
    Russia to empty the jails to fight in Ukraine. This is both reprehensible and unsustainable. Russia must evacuate to their borders.

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/europ...ntl/index.html
    At least we won't have to swap that arms dealer for Brittney Griner now.
    Quote Originally Posted by Downbound Train View Post
    And there will come a day when our ancestors look back...........

  2. #8952
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,948

  3. #8953
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    9,300ft
    Posts
    20,399
    From those images I interpret ~6 Su-24 type strike bombers and ~2 Su-27 type fighters severely damaged or destroyed along with some support trucks and buildings.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  4. #8954
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,948

  5. #8955
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    9,300ft
    Posts
    20,399
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    I don't get what that is supposed to show... there would have to be a miss that hit nearby as that damage looks like >0.1psi maybe even 0.5psi. To generate that overpressure at 1 mile, that's a big-bada-boom, like 20-50 tons of explosives going off all at once, bigger than the biggest conventional bomb ever. You'd need to light off the entire bomb depot for the base to get that effect. You don't get it from several 330 pound precision missile warheads going off piece by piece. Or you just get it by one of the precision missiles going off target and hitting behind where POV of that footy.

    Too much time studying nukes...
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  6. #8956
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    关你屁事
    Posts
    7,759
    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    From those images I interpret ~6 Su-24 type strike bombers and ~2 Su-27 type fighters severely damaged or destroyed along with some support trucks and buildings.
    and the group only had like 12 su-24 variants and 12 su-30 to start off with, and probably lost half (other images suggest more torched planes, and don’t count non satellite visible damage).


    Now for the Kerch straight bridge ��

  7. #8957
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,948
    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    I don't get what that is supposed to show... there would have to be a miss that hit nearby as that damage looks like >0.1psi maybe even 0.5psi. To generate that overpressure at 1 mile, that's a big-bada-boom, like 20-50 tons of explosives going off all at once, bigger than the biggest conventional bomb ever. You'd need to light off the entire bomb depot for the base to get that effect. You don't get it from several 330 pound precision missile warheads going off piece by piece. Or you just get it by one of the precision missiles going off target and hitting behind where POV of that footy.

    Too much time studying nukes...
    Special forces operation. No missiles

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...a-beach-blast/

  8. #8958
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    2,039
    Russian tank with rubber instead of the reactive armor itís supposed to have:

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	9C825718-D5CB-4D25-A524-1224314A8ADA.jpeg 
Views:	75 
Size:	672.5 KB 
ID:	423510

    https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...a2Y40kvBGLAhgw

  9. #8959
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,577
    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    From those images I interpret ~6 Su-24 type strike bombers and ~2 Su-27 type fighters severely damaged or destroyed along with some support trucks and buildings.
    I count a lot more than 2 fighters out of commission. It's a pity we can't make out the condition of the tails on the ones still there. Lots of questions.

  10. #8960
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    9,300ft
    Posts
    20,399
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    I count a lot more than 2 fighters out of commission. It's a pity we can't make out the condition of the tails on the ones still there. Lots of questions.
    I didn't interpret all the missing aircraft as destroyed. if there wasn't wreckage or fire indications, I interpreted that as aircraft not in location at time of attack or otherwise survived with mild or no damage. I'm no expert
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  11. #8961
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    6,774
    Quote Originally Posted by ex-powderbroker View Post
    Russia to empty the jails to fight in Ukraine. This is both reprehensible and unsustainable. Russia must evacuate to their borders.

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/europ...ntl/index.html
    It's one way to make more space in Russian jails for UA POW's. And another way to have UA forces eliminate Russian criminal rejects from the Russian mafias.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  12. #8962
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Moose, Iowa
    Posts
    7,560
    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    I'm no expert
    Lol. Some of these guys ability to finger Russian equipment from pictures is amazing.

    I saw 9 earlier somewhere. Seems like you must be close.

    Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

  13. #8963
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    Bellevue
    Posts
    7,365
    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    I didn't interpret all the missing aircraft as destroyed. if there wasn't wreckage or fire indications, I interpreted that as aircraft not in location at time of attack or otherwise survived with mild or no damage. I'm no expert
    In one of the after pictures you can see a plane on the right, on the runway. I find the 1 dead number hard to believe, but Russian reporting on this kind of thing is always a lie. Looks like Ukraine dropped a hell of a cigarette on the base.

    To reach targets deep behind enemy lines, Ukraine has increasingly turned to partisans, often residents of Russian-occupied territories who are loyal to Ukraine, officials said. Such people have helped Ukraine’s military strike Russian bases and ammunition depots, Ukrainian officials say.
    Others have carried out attacks themselves. Over the weekend, the Kremlin-installed mayor of the city of Kherson suddenly fell ill and had to be evacuated to Moscow, where there were reports that he was in a coma. Less than 24 hours later, the deputy head of a major town in the region was shot and killed at his home, a spokeswoman for the region said.

    The senior Ukrainian official said that both instances were the work of local partisan forces, though his claim could not be independently verified.
    Here's something interesting buried pretty far down in this article.

  14. #8964
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,577
    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    I didn't interpret all the missing aircraft as destroyed. if there wasn't wreckage or fire indications, I interpreted that as aircraft not in location at time of attack or otherwise survived with mild or no damage. I'm no expert
    Yeah, that's my assumption as well, though hopefully a couple of them were around. It's hard to tell in the other, 'AI clarified' images whether things were strictly filtered or if someone overlaid the images somehow. The clarified versions may be a bit of a reach, though--crater shapes look less clear in those. Hopefully more news coming.

  15. #8965
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Edge of the Great Basin
    Posts
    4,170
    There are unconfirmed reports of multiple explosions at Zyabrovka airbase in Belarus. The base was recently handed over to Russian forces.


    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    I don't get what that is supposed to show... there would have to be a miss that hit nearby as that damage looks like >0.1psi maybe even 0.5psi. To generate that overpressure at 1 mile, that's a big-bada-boom, like 20-50 tons of explosives going off all at once, bigger than the biggest conventional bomb ever. You'd need to light off the entire bomb depot for the base to get that effect. You don't get it from several 330 pound precision missile warheads going off piece by piece. Or you just get it by one of the precision missiles going off target and hitting behind where POV of that footy.

    Too much time studying nukes...
    If the Crimean base's fuel tanks exploded, and it looks like they did, that could explain the much larger blast radius. Arguably, destroying refueling infrastructure hurts the Russian war effort as much or more than the destroyed aircraft.

  16. #8966
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    9,300ft
    Posts
    20,399
    Well if there really was a large enough explosion to damage those apartments like that at 1 mi, any plane within 750-1500 feet of the large explosion would have been damaged, and 400ft to 1000ft damaged beyond repair (rough back calculation for 2-4psi).

    Again that takes the a sizable chunk of the bomb depot blowing up *at once*, some special specops demolition trick where they turn the fuel tank farm into the mother of all fuel air explosions, or a gargantuan earth shatteringly large BLEVE from the burning fuel farm.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  17. #8967
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,948

    Ukraine

    This German AA thing looks bomb.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	IMG_1341.JPG 
Views:	107 
Size:	1,013.7 KB 
ID:	423521

  18. #8968
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    9,300ft
    Posts
    20,399
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    This German AA thing looks bomb.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	IMG_1341.JPG 
Views:	107 
Size:	1,013.7 KB 
ID:	423521
    Looks like a Soviet ZSU-23 Shilka straight outa 1960. Good for point defense against helicopters... maybe low flying medium sized drones in the radar is upgraded for that and the rounds have specialized VT fuses.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  19. #8969
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,577
    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    Well if there really was a large enough explosion to damage those apartments like that at 1 mi, any plane within 750-1500 feet of the large explosion would have been damaged, and 400ft to 1000ft damaged beyond repair (rough back calculation for 2-4psi).

    Again that takes the a sizable chunk of the bomb depot blowing up *at once*, some special specops demolition trick where they turn the fuel tank farm into the mother of all fuel air explosions, or a gargantuan earth shatteringly large BLEVE from the burning fuel farm.
    Without needing exact figures, it certainly seems likely that anything that was parked would have sustained damage. Question is how much--particularly below the berms.

  20. #8970
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    closer
    Posts
    4,467
    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    Looks like a Soviet ZSU-23 Shilka straight outa 1960. Good for point defense against helicopters... maybe low flying medium sized drones in the radar is upgraded for that and the rounds have specialized VT fuses.
    It was designed in 1970 and in updated Service until 2012. Only abandoned because it was fairly costly to Service and nobody thought there would be another cold war Scenario. quite ironic, I know. It still does what it was designed to to fairly well ( as far as I've read). Especially against cold war machinery.
    It's a war of the mind and we're armed to the teeth.

  21. #8971
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    valley of the heart's delight
    Posts
    1,837
    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    Well if there really was a large enough explosion to damage those apartments like that at 1 mi, any plane within 750-1500 feet of the large explosion would have been damaged, and 400ft to 1000ft damaged beyond repair (rough back calculation for 2-4psi).

    Again that takes the a sizable chunk of the bomb depot blowing up *at once*, some special specops demolition trick where they turn the fuel tank farm into the mother of all fuel air explosions, or a gargantuan earth shatteringly large BLEVE from the burning fuel farm.
    Thanks for these insights. Nothing like an airbase mysteriously blowing up.

    One set of pictures showed 3 craters near the damaged planes, estimated at 20+ meters. This guy: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...878299651.html. 20m comment at bottom
    This says a 2000lb bomb can make a 15 meter crater. Not big enough https://odin.tradoc.army.mil/mediawi...l-Purpose_Bomb
    I claim no knowledge of bombs, but the forgoing suggests those craters were made by something bigger than fits on most missiles. Wiki says ATACMS has 500lb warhead. Ukraine's Neptune supposedly similar. Also bigger than I'd think SOF could sneak in with, though if they got in with a truck (3 trucks), a truck could carry something big enough. Perhaps something already stored there went boom, though that means three similar storages - most likely? Perhaps the soil is unusual and makes big craters. Perhaps the Russians are crafty and painted big craters for the satellites?

    War sucks, but in the abstract, it sure is funny wondering what happened to the bad guys.

  22. #8972
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    closer
    Posts
    4,467
    Interesting travel warning from ukraine
    https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/...1932429819907?
    It's a war of the mind and we're armed to the teeth.

  23. #8973
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    2,093
    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    Thanks for these insights. Nothing like an airbase mysteriously blowing up.

    One set of pictures showed 3 craters near the damaged planes, estimated at 20+ meters. This guy: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...878299651.html. 20m comment at bottom
    This says a 2000lb bomb can make a 15 meter crater. Not big enough https://odin.tradoc.army.mil/mediawi...l-Purpose_Bomb
    I claim no knowledge of bombs, but the forgoing suggests those craters were made by something bigger than fits on most missiles. Wiki says ATACMS has 500lb warhead. Ukraine's Neptune supposedly similar. Also bigger than I'd think SOF could sneak in with, though if they got in with a truck (3 trucks), a truck could carry something big enough. Perhaps something already stored there went boom, though that means three similar storages - most likely? Perhaps the soil is unusual and makes big craters. Perhaps the Russians are crafty and painted big craters for the satellites?

    War sucks, but in the abstract, it sure is funny wondering what happened to the bad guys.
    Or a small bomb was used to blow up some big bombs that were sitting the the buildings or on the planes.

  24. #8974
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,577
    Very interesting counterpoint:

    "⚡️#Ukraine - #Novofedorivka, #Saky district, #Crimea - Russian airbase explosions. ...... We don't know the missile but we believe they fired from #Odessa Oblast." (ref @glosmeusec
    ) Okay, so I checked for missile magnetic anomaly signatures from Odesa. Found one. Mach 2.5."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/rrichcord...69834215018496

    Much nerding out in the comments. I'm not clear on how the magnetic data would distinguish a missile from, say, an airplane doing that same speed, but presumably the acceleration rate changes the how "sharp" the wave is?

    All war is deception, though: maybe a little coordination to generate that signature to spread the idea that they have a new missile that can do this even though they used SOF with precise timers. And maybe the other way around.

  25. #8975
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    valley of the heart's delight
    Posts
    1,837
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Much nerding out in the comments. I'm not clear on how the magnetic data would distinguish a missile from, say, an airplane doing that same speed, but presumably the acceleration rate changes the how "sharp" the wave is?
    Buried in the comments, he explains the physical principle. An explosion on the ground produces an acoustic wave that travels (up) through the atmosphere. When it vibrates the ionosphere, the movement of the ions produces an EM signature that can be detected by magnetometers. As for the airplane question, my take is it doesn't produce enough noise to be detected with his method, though theoretically it could be done with a sufficiently sensitive magnetometer.

    As you suggest, given the crudeness of the method, deception would work well. Especially with a little social media work to boost awareness.

    Another thought on missile vs airplane. If a sonic boom is part of the phenomenon here, the airplane's sonic energy will have a more horizontal component, while some missile trajectories will have a vertical component that presumably would have a greater effect on the ionosphere.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •