Ukraine

[SumJongGuy]

Imagine if they could somehow get Zelenskyy on the next ballot running against Putin in Russia..

[ötzi]

I had been wondering about this, because men who get arrested are being conscripted immdiately apparently. In Yakutsk (and I would have to assume elsewhere) women are the main ones protesting:

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/st...60c9fae7a5%2F0

[MultiVerse]

A BBC investigation suggests Russian state media outlets were part of an organized disinformation campaign by propagandists to produce false stories about Ukrainians “selling” US-donated weapons. Undercover with Russia’s fake arms dealers. It turns out the usual suspects here as well as Amnesty were spreading Russian propaganda.

[subtle plague]

Who would have thought?

[highangle]

A BBC investigation suggests Russian state media outlets were part of an organized disinformation campaign by propagandists to produce false stories about Ukrainians “selling” US-donated weapons. Undercover with Russia’s fake arms dealers. It turns out the usual suspects here as well as Amnesty were spreading Russian propaganda.

The cucks and tankies here just picked it up from Fox, which spreads Russian propaganda on a daily basis...as a business model.
Don't worry though, Fox also supports insurrections like 1/6 and promotes Trump's Big Lie as an Act of Faith to cast fake doubt on American Democracy and divide America as a whole.
Putin's paying them to do it and advertisers too, and it's money so why not? Besides, Fox is protected by the 1A, so as far as they're concerned, there's no reason not to do it.

[neufox47]

Yesh.

Too bad the leading prospects to replace Putin are radical ultra right nationalists.

It feels so good to watch their shit being blown up but the crystal ball is looking pretty bleak.

I do think all signs point to a power spiral. Putin holding on for dear life.

Yes but if the war is the reason Putin fails is the new regime really going to double down on the war? I know that’s what some want but I thought that is still a small minority of the population. I’d think the downfall would be the mobilization and costs of the war which would open the door for someone to withdraw them from the war.

[LongShortLong]

Yes but if the war is the reason Putin fails is the new regime really going to double down on the war? I know that’s what some want but I thought that is still a small minority of the population. I’d think the downfall would be the mobilization and costs of the war which would open the door for someone to withdraw them from the war.

It's hard to know what ordinary Russians want. Worth considering that less oppressed Americans, by a wide margin: wanted the poorly justified war in Iraq; looked the other way from destruction, death, and torture; re-elected the "Mission Accomplished" guy, and then elected the "surge" and "signature strike" guy. In an earlier generation, the Vietnam war is a similar example. Nationalism is a potent drug. People rally around their red white and blue flags (and other flags). Russians may double down and support a few surges before finally losing in 2037 or so.

Thousands of protesters and tens of thousands of draft dodgers leaves a hundred million who support or accept war (or can be coerced).

Some deep self-reflection is needed if the world is to avoid stupid wars. I hope we become capable of that.

[bodywhomper]

Russia conscripting Ukrainians in occupied areas: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/25/w...e=articleShare

[Toadman]

Fresh cannon fodder. No training necessary.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...n_are_already/

[Bunion 2020]

He looks ready to kill!

I want to kill. I mean, I wanna, I
Wanna kill. Kill. I wanna, I wanna see, I wanna see blood and gore and
Guts and veins in my teeth. Eat dead burnt bodies. I mean kill, Kill,
Kill, kill. " And I started jumpin up and down yelling, "kill, kill, " and
He started jumpin up and down with me and we was both jumping up and down
Yelling, "KILL, KILL." And the sargent came over, pinned a medal on me,
Sent me down the hall, said, "You're our boy."

[boltonoutlaw]

Bunch of omoh's

[ötzi]

That poor kid is fkn terrified. Maybe after the regime change they'll hunt those omoh fuckers down. Doubtful I know.

[MBC655]

What will be the catastrophic consequences if Putin uses nuclear weapons?

[uglymoney]

Yes but if the war is the reason Putin fails is the new regime really going to double down on the war? I know that’s what some want but I thought that is still a small minority of the population. I’d think the downfall would be the mobilization and costs of the war which would open the door for someone to withdraw them from the war.

They think Putler is losing because he has held too much back.

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[summit]

What will be the catastrophic consequences if Putin uses nuclear weapons?

There is an array of very tough things we can do to Russia. One of the first things we might do is try to intercept the nuclear strike if we know it is coming: we'll see the missile launch or launcher aircraft, but will we know it is nuclear and have an asset to intercept? It gets messy because then Russia denies, and unless the intercept was over non-Russian controlled territory, it might be hard to prove. Or Russia fires again.

Things we can do to Russia to retaliate:

Global trade bans including demanding China/India also do so, and we'll cut them off if they don't go along (and they probably would go along), global Russian asset seizures, global travel bans, blockades and shipping interdiction, giving the Ukrainians 1000s of armored vehicles and hundreds of aircraft, giving the Ukrainians ATACMS SRBMs, establishing no-fly zones, cyberwarfare, seize Russian oil and gas platforms in the North Sea, deploy heavy divisions and THAAD batteries to the Baltics and Finland forcing Russia to reposition their armies, position US Air Forces to various bases surrounding Russia, surge deployment of US naval groups. Inviting the Russian Navy into a shooting war if they wished to challenge a blockade would result in a short but exciting existence for the Russian fleet.

None of these cautious actions (in comparison to the unprecedented reckless aggression they are responding to) require strikes across the Russian border except air to air missiles and "Ukrainian" SSM strikes against Russian airfields that are only marginally more aggressive than now.

These actions would be catastrophic: it would make the Russian position in Ukraine, and Russia's continued economic existence at current levels, untenable. BUT these actions would not result in in an existential threat to Russian territorial integrity. These measures would be matched with offers to negotiate a settlement on Western terms. It is highly unlikely the initial Russian strike would have a profound impact on the military capability of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces, by the nature of the conflict, are already deployed in a nuclear defensive posture and battlefield nuclear attacks are not going to be tactically efficient for Russia as their ability to operate on a nuclear battlefield is marginal at this point.

Beyond that cautious level of response, moving up the retaliation cascade to covert warfare: we could use stealth and special means to strike Russian offensive capabilities with some plausible deniability, or as a demonstration. We could get even more aggressive and strike the Kerch Strait bridge (but better to let the Ukes do that with their new ATACMS) and Russian assets in the Black Sea, probably needs to happen.

I'm not thinking we would respond with a nuclear strike to a single Russian strike, but we very surely could. We would be very clear to the world, particularly China and India, that we are choosing global economic solidarity against Russia in lieu of a nuclear retaliation. If we were to strike Russia with a nuclear weapon in retaliation, it would most likely be a single strike against a military target with low collateral. If Russia went for a city, I'm not thinking we would go for a city. I don't think we would do that unless we already told them that would be the consequence through back channels. It is not likely we would attempt a risky decapitating first strike, nor a disarming first strike, unless we were convinced the Russians were about to do the same.

Now, all that said, Russia is typically downwind of Ukraine. I don't think Russia's generals are going to be copacetic with putting fallout clouds over Russia. If Russia was to escalate, I'd anticipate a chemical attack. Or I would have... the Russians used to be pretty good at that. However, it is likely that the units best trained to operate on a chemical battlefield have been depleted or destroyed. Russia could however slime Ukrainian rear areas, depots, and air bases as they planned to do to NATO in the opening salvos of the cold war going hot. However, Russia faces the problem of their inability to deliver sufficient quantities of chemical agent to targets given their demonstrated marginal effectiveness with cruise and ballistic missiles.

Russia is stuck, and they know it.

[riser4]

There is an array of very tough things we can do to Russia. One of the first things we might do is try to intercept the nuclear strike if we know it is coming: we'll see the missile launch or launcher aircraft, but will we know it is nuclear and have an asset to intercept? It gets messy because then Russia denies, and unless the intercept was over non-Russian controlled territory, it might be hard to prove. Or Russia fires again.

Things we can do to Russia to retaliate:

Global trade bans including demanding China/India also do so, and we'll cut them off if they don't go along (and they probably would go along), global Russian asset seizures, global travel bans, blockades and shipping interdiction, giving the Ukrainians 1000s of armored vehicles and hundreds of aircraft, giving the Ukrainians ATACMS SRBMs, establishing no-fly zones, cyberwarfare, seize Russian oil and gas platforms in the North Sea, deploy heavy divisions and THAAD batteries to the Baltics and Finland forcing Russia to reposition their armies, position US Air Forces to various bases surrounding Russia, surge deployment of US naval groups.

None of these cautious actions (in comparison to the unprecedented reckless aggression they are responding to) require strikes across the Russian border except air to air missiles and "Ukrainian" SSM strikes against Russian airfields that are only marginally more aggressive than now.

These actions would be catastrophic: it would make the Russian position in Ukraine, and Russia's continued economic existence, untenable. These actions would be matched with offers to negotiate a settlement on Western terms. It is highly unlikely the Russian strike would have a profound impact on the military capability of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces, by the nature of the conflict, are already deployed in a nuclear defensive posture and battlefield nuclear attacks are not going to be tactically efficient for Russia.

Beyond that cautious level of response, moving up the retaliation cascade to covert warfare: we could use stealth and special means to strike Russian offensive capabilities with some plausible deniability, or as a demonstration. We could get even more aggressive and strike the Kerch Strait bridge (but better to let the Ukes do that with their new ATACMS) and Russian assets in the Black Sea, probably needs to happen.

I'm not thinking we would respond with a nuclear strike to a single Russian strike, but we very surely could. We would be very clear to the world, particularly China and India, that we are choosing global economic solidarity against Russia in lieu of a nuclear retaliation. If we were to strike Russia with a nuclear weapon in retaliation, it would most likely be a single strike against a military target with low collateral. If Russia went for a city, I'm not thinking we would go for a city. I don't think we would do that unless we already told them that would be the consequence through back channels. It is not likely we would attempt a risky decapitating first strike, nor a disarming first strike, unless we were convinced the Russians were about to do the same.

It's still a shit sandwich, no matter how you slice it.

[summit]

Our goal in life is to deter Russia from taking a bite of that sandwich before pushing it across the table.

We deter them because they know we can do everything I mentioned. That is peace through strength.

Nobody gets a warm fuzzy out of the rattling of nuclear sabers.

[SumJongGuy]

Does MAD still work when at least one of the parties is completely criminally insane and delusional? We may be about to find out.

[liv2ski]

Does MAD still work when at least one of the parties is completely criminally insane and delusional? We may be about to find out.

For the sake of everyone, I sure hope not.

[summit]

Putin is a survivor above all.

Putin is worried that losing in Ukraine may put him in a fight for power, so he is trying to come to a domestically acceptable outcome, even if that is an escalation and extended war for now.

Putin KNOWS he will not survive a nuclear exchange. Putin may demand mobilisation, aggressive military action, and many threats, and his team will follow. But his generals know they can't fight NATO, don't want to fight NATO, and fighting NATO is the only setting where nukes make sense in Russian doctrine.

If Putin actually loses his marbles and wants a nuke, I suspect his ministers and generals will solemnly nod, the nuclear suitcase will be brought forward, and then Putin will be bashed in the head with it. He'll be dragged out back, given a 90 second trial, and shot in the head like Lavrentiy Beria. Because Putin has surrounded himself with survivors. I'm not saying we'll like his replacement either, though.

[rod9301]

There is an array of very tough things we can do to Russia. One of the first things we might do is try to intercept the nuclear strike if we know it is coming: we'll see the missile launch or launcher aircraft, but will we know it is nuclear and have an asset to intercept? It gets messy because then Russia denies, and unless the intercept was over non-Russian controlled territory, it might be hard to prove. Or Russia fires again.

Things we can do to Russia to retaliate:

Global trade bans including demanding China/India also do so, and we'll cut them off if they don't go along (and they probably would go along), global Russian asset seizures, global travel bans, blockades and shipping interdiction, giving the Ukrainians 1000s of armored vehicles and hundreds of aircraft, giving the Ukrainians ATACMS SRBMs, establishing no-fly zones, cyberwarfare, seize Russian oil and gas platforms in the North Sea, deploy heavy divisions and THAAD batteries to the Baltics and Finland forcing Russia to reposition their armies, position US Air Forces to various bases surrounding Russia, surge deployment of US naval groups. Inviting the Russian Navy into a shooting war if they wished to challenge a blockade would result in a short but exciting existence for the Russian fleet.

None of these cautious actions (in comparison to the unprecedented reckless aggression they are responding to) require strikes across the Russian border except air to air missiles and "Ukrainian" SSM strikes against Russian airfields that are only marginally more aggressive than now.

These actions would be catastrophic: it would make the Russian position in Ukraine, and Russia's continued economic existence at current levels, untenable. BUT these actions would not result in in an existential threat to Russian territorial integrity. These measures would be matched with offers to negotiate a settlement on Western terms. It is highly unlikely the initial Russian strike would have a profound impact on the military capability of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces, by the nature of the conflict, are already deployed in a nuclear defensive posture and battlefield nuclear attacks are not going to be tactically efficient for Russia as their ability to operate on a nuclear battlefield is marginal at this point.

Beyond that cautious level of response, moving up the retaliation cascade to covert warfare: we could use stealth and special means to strike Russian offensive capabilities with some plausible deniability, or as a demonstration. We could get even more aggressive and strike the Kerch Strait bridge (but better to let the Ukes do that with their new ATACMS) and Russian assets in the Black Sea, probably needs to happen.

I'm not thinking we would respond with a nuclear strike to a single Russian strike, but we very surely could. We would be very clear to the world, particularly China and India, that we are choosing global economic solidarity against Russia in lieu of a nuclear retaliation. If we were to strike Russia with a nuclear weapon in retaliation, it would most likely be a single strike against a military target with low collateral. If Russia went for a city, I'm not thinking we would go for a city. I don't think we would do that unless we already told them that would be the consequence through back channels. It is not likely we would attempt a risky decapitating first strike, nor a disarming first strike, unless we were convinced the Russians were about to do the same.

Now, all that said, Russia is typically downwind of Ukraine. I don't think Russia's generals are going to be copacetic with putting fallout clouds over Russia. If Russia was to escalate, I'd anticipate a chemical attack. Or I would have... the Russians used to be pretty good at that. However, it is likely that the units best trained to operate on a chemical battlefield have been depleted or destroyed. Russia could however slime Ukrainian rear areas, depots, and air bases as they planned to do to NATO in the opening salvos of the cold war going hot. However, Russia faces the problem of their inability to deliver sufficient quantities of chemical agent to targets given their demonstrated marginal effectiveness with cruise and ballistic missiles.

Russia is stuck, and they know it.

Just asking for a friend.

For how long will we keep all this?

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[dunfree]

Just asking for a friend.

For how long will we keep all this?

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until Russia goes home, guy who simps for a genocidal dictator

[rod9301]

Or until the economies of Europe collapse.



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[The Reverend Floater]

Or until the economies of Europe collapse.



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Comrod is going to be parroting Fox's "what ifs" well into the next decade. Critical thinking...you has it, no?

[highangle]

Or until the economies of Europe collapse.



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