Page 360 of 404 FirstFirst ... 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 ... LastLast
Results 8,976 to 9,000 of 10078

Thread: Ukraine

  1. #8976
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    关你屁事
    Posts
    7,744
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Very interesting counterpoint:

    "⚡️#Ukraine - #Novofedorivka, #Saky district, #Crimea - Russian airbase explosions. ...... We don't know the missile but we believe they fired from #Odessa Oblast." (ref @glosmeusec
    ) Okay, so I checked for missile magnetic anomaly signatures from Odesa. Found one. Mach 2.5."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/rrichcord...69834215018496

    Much nerding out in the comments. I'm not clear on how the magnetic data would distinguish a missile from, say, an airplane doing that same speed, but presumably the acceleration rate changes the how "sharp" the wave is?

    All war is deception, though: maybe a little coordination to generate that signature to spread the idea that they have a new missile that can do this even though they used SOF with precise timers. And maybe the other way around.
    Mach 2.5 is faster than all but a couple aircraft (sr71/a12, mig-25, mig-31) none of which Ukraine operate currently

  2. #8977
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,576
    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    Buried in the comments, he explains the physical principle. An explosion on the ground produces an acoustic wave that travels (up) through the atmosphere. When it vibrates the ionosphere, the movement of the ions produces an EM signature that can be detected by magnetometers. As for the airplane question, my take is it doesn't produce enough noise to be detected with his method, though theoretically it could be done with a sufficiently sensitive magnetometer.

    As you suggest, given the crudeness of the method, deception would work well. Especially with a little social media work to boost awareness.

    Another thought on missile vs airplane. If a sonic boom is part of the phenomenon here, the airplane's sonic energy will have a more horizontal component, while some missile trajectories will have a vertical component that presumably would have a greater effect on the ionosphere.
    I get the sense that he's just running the data through filters to quiet down the background noise and turning that into magnitude from each sensor. Sounds like he's developed some transformations in Excel that are mostly informed by previous events. Which leaves a lot of latitude for what's being used to draw conclusions: is "sharpness" more important than magnitude in his analysis? Who knows?

    Fascinating stuff, though--maybe even more if it's an elaborate counterintelligence scheme.

  3. #8978
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,576
    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    Mach 2.5 is faster than all but a couple aircraft (sr71/a12, mig-25, mig-31) none of which Ukraine operate currently
    And also a Very rough estimate.

    Is it more likely a missile from an S-300, say? Lots of possibilities.

    ETA; Not to discredit the idea, either. He's also tweeted data correlating with explosions in Belarus which may be tougher to explain via ground troops.

  4. #8979
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    关你屁事
    Posts
    7,744
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    And also a Very rough estimate.

    Is it more likely a missile from an S-300, say? Lots of possibilities.

    ETA; Not to discredit the idea, either. He's also tweeted data correlating with explosions in Belarus which may be tougher to explain via ground troops.
    Oh definitely. If it were a plane going that fast theyd be at 40k feet or whatever and that Ukraine felt comfortable doing that would be a bigger deal than the raid itself. More likely missiles (ATACMS from someone else? Hrim-2?) or a SF raid

  5. #8980
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    关你屁事
    Posts
    7,744
    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    Attachment 421056

    https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status...7q9V6Lao9NrT_A

    I believe UKR still only has four US HIMARS, but another eight have been promised, so these attacks should become even more frequent.
    follow up to another himars attack the same time
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

Name:	84C2D35B-C5B1-4F3E-B629-51D09D49402E.jpeg 
Views:	71 
Size:	1.23 MB 
ID:	423544  

  6. #8981
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    2,022

  7. #8982
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    valley of the heart's delight
    Posts
    1,833
    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    Too funny. Russia should go home before Ukraine installs that Captcha on Russian territory.

  8. #8983
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    2,022
    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    Too funny. Russia should go home before Ukraine installs that Captcha on Russian territory.
    Official UKR accounts have been doing some A+ trolling.

  9. #8984
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,576
    What's the downside of the EU banning travel visas for Russians? Hurts EU more than Russia?

    NAFO seems to be dominating the trolls for some reason, so I have to come here to ask. TIA

  10. #8985
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Edge of the Great Basin
    Posts
    4,160
    A big upside has to do with the fact for each Russian soldier from Moscow that is killed in Ukraine there are: 87 from Dagestan, 275 from Buryatia, 350 from Tuva. Just as the attack in Crimea brought the war home for Russian vacationing elites, a travel ban would do the same and therefore bring pressure on the Kremlin to end the war sooner.

    It seems like there are two big downsides. Russia is experiencing a brain drain as skilled workers flee the country. A travel ban could stop that from happening. Because about half of all Ukrainian refugees have since returned, Russia has seen roughly the same number of people flee the country due to the invasion as Ukraine.

    The other downside is not allowing Russian reporters to travel could prevent foreign points of view from being told, further strengthening the regimes domestic propaganda efforts.

  11. #8986
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    2 hours from anything
    Posts
    9,939
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    A big upside has to do with the fact for each Russian soldier from Moscow that is killed in Ukraine there are: 87 from Dagestan, 275 from Buryatia, 350 from Tuva. Just as the attack in Crimea brought the war home for Russian vacationing elites, a travel ban would do the same and therefore bring pressure on the Kremlin to end the war sooner.

    It seems like there are two big downsides. Russia is
    One has to wonder, with those casualty disparities and the economic problems they will have, how long until other areas of Russia become restless?

  12. #8987
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    关你屁事
    Posts
    7,744
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    What's the downside of the EU banning travel visas for Russians? Hurts EU more than Russia?

    NAFO seems to be dominating the trolls for some reason, so I have to come here to ask. TIA
    downside is thereís a number if Russians opposed to the regime, or just people who gtfo, already there or wanting to be there on such travel documents

    upside us it appears to really piss Russia off

  13. #8988
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,576
    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    downside is thereís a number if Russians opposed to the regime, or just people who gtfo, already there or wanting to be there on such travel documents

    upside us it appears to really piss Russia off
    Applying for political asylum is still an option, though, right? Looking like a pretty good trade so far.

    Maybe Rod has some more concrete issues. Less Rubles leaving makes it harder to pay the dividends or SFT? Less Russian "voters?"

  14. #8989
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    关你屁事
    Posts
    7,744
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Applying for political asylum is still an option, though, right? Looking like a pretty good trade so far.

    Maybe Rod has some more concrete issues. Less Rubles leaving makes it harder to pay the dividends or SFT? Less Russian "voters?"
    sure, but asylum is now equated with illegals

  15. #8990
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    In your Dreams
    Posts
    696
    But these are white refugees
    Seeker of Truth. Dispenser of Wisdom. Protector of the Weak. Avenger of Evil.

  16. #8991
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,576
    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    sure, but asylum is now equated with illegals
    Footage indicates they may be ok with a little criminality.

  17. #8992
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    The Bull City
    Posts
    10,153
    I hope those folks in Ukraine and Poland have plenty of potassium iodide..
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  18. #8993
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    I can still smell Poutine.
    Posts
    19,722
    Quote Originally Posted by SumJongGuy View Post
    I hope those folks in Ukraine and Poland have plenty of potassium iodide..
    That's not funny.

  19. #8994
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    7,868
    I assumed he was serious as a heart attack.

  20. #8995
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    In your Dreams
    Posts
    696
    Quote Originally Posted by riser4 View Post
    That's not funny.
    But within the realm of possibility.
    Seeker of Truth. Dispenser of Wisdom. Protector of the Weak. Avenger of Evil.

  21. #8996
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Edge of the Great Basin
    Posts
    4,160
    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    One has to wonder, with those casualty disparities and the economic problems they will have, how long until other areas of Russia become restless?
    There's a lot of speculation that if the Kremlin loses the war it will lead to the breakup of Russia, — or, as, I prefer to name it, North Kazakhstan. Although the country is so poor outside of Moscow & Saint Petersburg and Putin so adept at dolling out funds in exchange for loyalty that such a scenario seems unlikely.

    Most Russians are neither for or against the war just as most Russians are neither for or against the government. That's why Russia is only capable of recruiting the poorest of the poor to serve in the military. It's only when the war affects most Russians directly in the form of job losses or family life or their closest friends that any sort of real government resistance will start to happen.

  22. #8997
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    2,022

  23. #8998
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    2,022

  24. #8999
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    2,022

  25. #9000
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    2 hours from anything
    Posts
    9,939

    Ukraine

    ^^^ the EU should guarantee their safety and that they will be housed outside of Ukraine if they surrender. Put them up in quasi luxurious accommodations (by POW standards) and broadcast that as far as possible.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •