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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #8951
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    I don't think we know the mechanism for how UKR blew that airport up. Claiming 9 aircraft were destroyed so incredibly successful. No incoming missiles seen on videos.

    This source told WAPO it was Ukr special forces so that would presumably be an infiltration?

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...Zmu49NiMw&s=19
    Last edited by uglymoney; 08-10-2022 at 09:43 AM.

  2. #8952
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    Specops, MLRS, cruise missiles, careless conscripts with cigs... who knows?

    The Russians know... and the Ukranians know... and neither side wants to publicly admit it?
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  3. #8953
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    FWIW, it's in Ukraine's interest to sow confusion in Russia over the attack. From Russia's perspective admitting Ukraine carried out a successful attack looks bad for 1) their base security if SOF operation or 2) their air defense if missile attack.

    A state of emergency was declared in Russian-occupied Crimea following explosions at the Russian airbase. A Russian woman complains her vacation was cut short while stuck in a 60mile long traffic jam:

    https://twitter.com/Lt_Kizhe/status/1557110513557032960

  4. #8954
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    Quote Originally Posted by uglymoney View Post
    I don't think we know the mechanism for how UKR blew that airport up. Claiming 9 aircraft were destroyed so incredibly successful. No incoming misses seen on videos.

    This source tole WAPO it was Ukr special forces so thst would presumably be an infiltration?

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...Zmu49NiMw&s=19

    Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk
    Fair point. I should have said it's a Ukrainian attack, not an accident. Accidents are a lot less likely to just propogate down lines like that.

    Speculation that this was another use of kamikaze drones is out there, too. Lots of options and it's encouraging that it's gone this long without specifics. Hopefully that lasts a while.

  5. #8955
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    Quote Originally Posted by ex-powderbroker View Post
    Russia to empty the jails to fight in Ukraine. This is both reprehensible and unsustainable. Russia must evacuate to their borders.

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/europ...ntl/index.html
    At least we won't have to swap that arms dealer for Brittney Griner now.
    Quote Originally Posted by Downbound Train View Post
    And there will come a day when our ancestors look back...........

  6. #8956
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  7. #8957
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    From those images I interpret ~6 Su-24 type strike bombers and ~2 Su-27 type fighters severely damaged or destroyed along with some support trucks and buildings.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

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  9. #8959
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    I don't get what that is supposed to show... there would have to be a miss that hit nearby as that damage looks like >0.1psi maybe even 0.5psi. To generate that overpressure at 1 mile, that's a big-bada-boom, like 20-50 tons of explosives going off all at once, bigger than the biggest conventional bomb ever. You'd need to light off the entire bomb depot for the base to get that effect. You don't get it from several 330 pound precision missile warheads going off piece by piece. Or you just get it by one of the precision missiles going off target and hitting behind where POV of that footy.

    Too much time studying nukes...
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  10. #8960
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    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    From those images I interpret ~6 Su-24 type strike bombers and ~2 Su-27 type fighters severely damaged or destroyed along with some support trucks and buildings.
    and the group only had like 12 su-24 variants and 12 su-30 to start off with, and probably lost half (other images suggest more torched planes, and don’t count non satellite visible damage).


    Now for the Kerch straight bridge ��

  11. #8961
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    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    I don't get what that is supposed to show... there would have to be a miss that hit nearby as that damage looks like >0.1psi maybe even 0.5psi. To generate that overpressure at 1 mile, that's a big-bada-boom, like 20-50 tons of explosives going off all at once, bigger than the biggest conventional bomb ever. You'd need to light off the entire bomb depot for the base to get that effect. You don't get it from several 330 pound precision missile warheads going off piece by piece. Or you just get it by one of the precision missiles going off target and hitting behind where POV of that footy.

    Too much time studying nukes...
    Special forces operation. No missiles

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...a-beach-blast/

  12. #8962
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    Russian tank with rubber instead of the reactive armor itís supposed to have:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...a2Y40kvBGLAhgw

  13. #8963
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    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    From those images I interpret ~6 Su-24 type strike bombers and ~2 Su-27 type fighters severely damaged or destroyed along with some support trucks and buildings.
    I count a lot more than 2 fighters out of commission. It's a pity we can't make out the condition of the tails on the ones still there. Lots of questions.

  14. #8964
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    I count a lot more than 2 fighters out of commission. It's a pity we can't make out the condition of the tails on the ones still there. Lots of questions.
    I didn't interpret all the missing aircraft as destroyed. if there wasn't wreckage or fire indications, I interpreted that as aircraft not in location at time of attack or otherwise survived with mild or no damage. I'm no expert
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  15. #8965
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    Quote Originally Posted by ex-powderbroker View Post
    Russia to empty the jails to fight in Ukraine. This is both reprehensible and unsustainable. Russia must evacuate to their borders.

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/europ...ntl/index.html
    It's one way to make more space in Russian jails for UA POW's. And another way to have UA forces eliminate Russian criminal rejects from the Russian mafias.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  16. #8966
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    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    I'm no expert
    Lol. Some of these guys ability to finger Russian equipment from pictures is amazing.

    I saw 9 earlier somewhere. Seems like you must be close.

    Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

  17. #8967
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    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    I didn't interpret all the missing aircraft as destroyed. if there wasn't wreckage or fire indications, I interpreted that as aircraft not in location at time of attack or otherwise survived with mild or no damage. I'm no expert
    In one of the after pictures you can see a plane on the right, on the runway. I find the 1 dead number hard to believe, but Russian reporting on this kind of thing is always a lie. Looks like Ukraine dropped a hell of a cigarette on the base.

    To reach targets deep behind enemy lines, Ukraine has increasingly turned to partisans, often residents of Russian-occupied territories who are loyal to Ukraine, officials said. Such people have helped Ukraine’s military strike Russian bases and ammunition depots, Ukrainian officials say.
    Others have carried out attacks themselves. Over the weekend, the Kremlin-installed mayor of the city of Kherson suddenly fell ill and had to be evacuated to Moscow, where there were reports that he was in a coma. Less than 24 hours later, the deputy head of a major town in the region was shot and killed at his home, a spokeswoman for the region said.

    The senior Ukrainian official said that both instances were the work of local partisan forces, though his claim could not be independently verified.
    Here's something interesting buried pretty far down in this article.

  18. #8968
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    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    I didn't interpret all the missing aircraft as destroyed. if there wasn't wreckage or fire indications, I interpreted that as aircraft not in location at time of attack or otherwise survived with mild or no damage. I'm no expert
    Yeah, that's my assumption as well, though hopefully a couple of them were around. It's hard to tell in the other, 'AI clarified' images whether things were strictly filtered or if someone overlaid the images somehow. The clarified versions may be a bit of a reach, though--crater shapes look less clear in those. Hopefully more news coming.

  19. #8969
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    There are unconfirmed reports of multiple explosions at Zyabrovka airbase in Belarus. The base was recently handed over to Russian forces.


    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    I don't get what that is supposed to show... there would have to be a miss that hit nearby as that damage looks like >0.1psi maybe even 0.5psi. To generate that overpressure at 1 mile, that's a big-bada-boom, like 20-50 tons of explosives going off all at once, bigger than the biggest conventional bomb ever. You'd need to light off the entire bomb depot for the base to get that effect. You don't get it from several 330 pound precision missile warheads going off piece by piece. Or you just get it by one of the precision missiles going off target and hitting behind where POV of that footy.

    Too much time studying nukes...
    If the Crimean base's fuel tanks exploded, and it looks like they did, that could explain the much larger blast radius. Arguably, destroying refueling infrastructure hurts the Russian war effort as much or more than the destroyed aircraft.

  20. #8970
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    Well if there really was a large enough explosion to damage those apartments like that at 1 mi, any plane within 750-1500 feet of the large explosion would have been damaged, and 400ft to 1000ft damaged beyond repair (rough back calculation for 2-4psi).

    Again that takes the a sizable chunk of the bomb depot blowing up *at once*, some special specops demolition trick where they turn the fuel tank farm into the mother of all fuel air explosions, or a gargantuan earth shatteringly large BLEVE from the burning fuel farm.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  21. #8971
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    Ukraine

    This German AA thing looks bomb.

    Click image for larger version. 

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  22. #8972
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    This German AA thing looks bomb.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Looks like a Soviet ZSU-23 Shilka straight outa 1960. Good for point defense against helicopters... maybe low flying medium sized drones in the radar is upgraded for that and the rounds have specialized VT fuses.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  23. #8973
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    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    Well if there really was a large enough explosion to damage those apartments like that at 1 mi, any plane within 750-1500 feet of the large explosion would have been damaged, and 400ft to 1000ft damaged beyond repair (rough back calculation for 2-4psi).

    Again that takes the a sizable chunk of the bomb depot blowing up *at once*, some special specops demolition trick where they turn the fuel tank farm into the mother of all fuel air explosions, or a gargantuan earth shatteringly large BLEVE from the burning fuel farm.
    Without needing exact figures, it certainly seems likely that anything that was parked would have sustained damage. Question is how much--particularly below the berms.

  24. #8974
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    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    Looks like a Soviet ZSU-23 Shilka straight outa 1960. Good for point defense against helicopters... maybe low flying medium sized drones in the radar is upgraded for that and the rounds have specialized VT fuses.
    It was designed in 1970 and in updated Service until 2012. Only abandoned because it was fairly costly to Service and nobody thought there would be another cold war Scenario. quite ironic, I know. It still does what it was designed to to fairly well ( as far as I've read). Especially against cold war machinery.
    It's a war of the mind and we're armed to the teeth.

  25. #8975
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    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    Well if there really was a large enough explosion to damage those apartments like that at 1 mi, any plane within 750-1500 feet of the large explosion would have been damaged, and 400ft to 1000ft damaged beyond repair (rough back calculation for 2-4psi).

    Again that takes the a sizable chunk of the bomb depot blowing up *at once*, some special specops demolition trick where they turn the fuel tank farm into the mother of all fuel air explosions, or a gargantuan earth shatteringly large BLEVE from the burning fuel farm.
    Thanks for these insights. Nothing like an airbase mysteriously blowing up.

    One set of pictures showed 3 craters near the damaged planes, estimated at 20+ meters. This guy: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...878299651.html. 20m comment at bottom
    This says a 2000lb bomb can make a 15 meter crater. Not big enough https://odin.tradoc.army.mil/mediawi...l-Purpose_Bomb
    I claim no knowledge of bombs, but the forgoing suggests those craters were made by something bigger than fits on most missiles. Wiki says ATACMS has 500lb warhead. Ukraine's Neptune supposedly similar. Also bigger than I'd think SOF could sneak in with, though if they got in with a truck (3 trucks), a truck could carry something big enough. Perhaps something already stored there went boom, though that means three similar storages - most likely? Perhaps the soil is unusual and makes big craters. Perhaps the Russians are crafty and painted big craters for the satellites?

    War sucks, but in the abstract, it sure is funny wondering what happened to the bad guys.

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